7月FOMC纪要偏鹰，COMEX银Registered减11.83万盎司、SHFE仓单增21.29吨

数据截止：2026-08-24 08:00（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-24 00:00）。本期窗口为 2026-08-19 08:00—2026-08-24 08:00。

本期最重要的分化有三条：7 月 FOMC 纪要把利率风险重新推向偏鹰一侧；美国财政部又把长端流动性支持购债的单笔上限至少翻倍；库存端则出现「COMEX 白银总库存增加、Registered 减少」与「SHFE 白银标准仓单继续增加」并存。GLD 份额和 CFTC 管理基金净多也在扩张，但两者分别代表基金份额与衍生品持仓，不能改写成交易所自由库存。

按潜在影响分数排序

1. FOMC 纪要把短端政策风险推向偏鹰一侧

• 事件时间：2026-08-20 02:00（北京时间）/ 2026-08-19 18:00（UTC）；发布日为 2026-08-19，会议数据属于 2026-07-28—29。
• 实际利率背景：美国财政部日度 10 年期 TIPS 实际收益率为：8 月 18 日 2.41%，8 月 19 日 2.35%（−6 个基点），8 月 20 日 2.35%（持平），8 月 21 日 2.40%（+5 个基点）。4
• 传导链：加息预期上升 → 实际利率和美元上行压力增加 → 黄金、白银持有机会成本上升。通胀粘性与能源供给风险也会抬高贵金属的对冲需求，因此方向分数只给 −2，而不是把会议纪要等同于单向利空。
• 影响期限：短期至 1—2 个月。
• 行情待验证：实际利率、美元、金银期限结构和期权偏度是否在本期窗口同步调整，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：如果后续通胀数据继续回落，且 9 月或 10 月会议没有兑现加息预期，纪要中的鹰派风险溢价可能回吐。

2. 财政部把长端流动性支持购债单笔上限至少翻倍

• 事件时间：2026-08-19（北京时间与 UTC 均为日期级；官方公告未在正文中给出可核验的小时级发布时间）。
• 原始数据：单笔上限 2.0 → 至少 4.0 billion USD；生效区间 2026-09-09 至 2026-11-04。
• 传导链：长端购债规模上限提高 → 长端国债需求增加的可能性上升 → 长端收益率和无息资产机会成本承压 → 对黄金、白银形成政策层面的顺风。
• 影响期限：政策落地前为预期交易，落地后取决于实际成交量，观察期为数周至一个退款季度。
• 行情待验证：财政部实际每笔成交金额、10 年和 30 年期收益率、TIPS 实际收益率以及金银对长端收益率的弹性，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：公告给出的是上限，不是已执行的购债量。若实际操作规模偏小，或长端收益率由通胀和期限溢价主导，金银的顺风传导会减弱。

3. COMEX 白银总库存增加，Registered 反而减少

• 事件时间：报告日 2026-08-21 / 2026-08-20；对应活动日 2026-08-20 / 2026-08-19。北京时间和 UTC 均采用报告日期，原表没有独立的小时级发布时间。
• 口径：Registered 是登记为可用于期货交割的库存；Eligible 是符合规格、但没有登记为当前交割库存的库存；Combined Total 是两者合计。该表按盎司统计，托管地点是 CME 批准仓库体系。
• 传导链：Registered 下降会缩小直接交割缓冲，Eligible 增加和总库存增加又提高了潜在可转登记库存。8 月 21 日的 Registered 减量与 Eligible 增量在数值上几乎相互对应，Combined Total 仍增加，当前更像仓内类别调整叠加净流入，而非简单的实物总量外流。
• 影响期限：交割月与短期库存观察窗口。
• 黄金对应值：8 月 21 日报告的黄金 Registered 为 14,532,511.560 盎司，比 8 月 20 日报告的 14,514,950.107 盎司增加 17,561.453 盎司；Eligible 为 12,163,403.283 盎司，减少 2,500.030 盎司；Combined Total 为 26,695,914.843 盎司，增加 15,061.423 盎司。黄金原表仍把 Pledged 单独列出，Combined Total 的注释包含 Registered、Pledged 和 Eligible，不能把 Combined Total 直接当作可立即交割自由库存。89
• 行情待验证：白银近月基差、交割通知、注销仓单和 EFP，等待行情系统验证；本期没有把 Registered 变化直接写成自由库存变化。
• 反证与失效条件：如果后续报告显示 Registered 持续下降且总库存同步下降，交割缓冲收缩的解释才会增强；若 Eligible 持续转入 Registered，紧张信号会减弱。

4. SHFE 白银标准仓单继续增加

• 事件时间：2026-08-21（北京时间与 UTC 均为日期级）；报告数据日期为 2026-08-21。
• 传导链：沪银已制成仓单增加 → 交易所交割体系内可调用的标准化货物增加 → 近月交割压力的缓冲扩大。这个链条只描述上期所仓单体系，不能延伸成全球白银自由库存增加。
• 影响期限：数日至数周，重点看近月交割和仓单注销。
• 方向评分：黄金 0，白银 −1；白银置信度 99%。
• 行情待验证：仓单注销、交收量、沪伦比价和内外盘升贴水，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：如果新增仓单很快注销，或沪银近月升水同时扩大，单日仓单增加对可用供给的缓冲作用会减弱。8 月 20 日上期所页面本轮受到人机验证拦截，因此没有用不可核实的中间日数值补齐序列。

5. CFTC 报告周内，黄金和白银 Managed Money 净多都增加

• 事件时间：数据日期 2026-08-18；CFTC 页面显示该周报告通常在 2026-08-21（周五）发布，但页面未单列本份报告的实际小时级发布时间。
• 传导链：管理基金净多增加 → 期货投机需求与持仓结构对金银的短期支撑增加 → 若价格和宏观信号反向，平仓会放大波动。
• 影响期限：数日至数周。
• 方向评分：黄金 +1，白银 +1；置信度 99%。
• 行情待验证：总持仓、商业净头寸、期权隐含波动率和持仓集中度，等待行情系统验证。
• 边界：这组数据是衍生品持仓，反映合约头寸，不是实物金银需求，也不应与 CME、SHFE 或 ETF 托管量相加。
• 反证与失效条件：若后续报告显示管理基金快速减仓，或实际利率上行压过持仓支撑，当前方向评分失效。

6. GLD 份额连续扩张，但官方文件没有给出本期金属盎司数

• 事件时间：数据日期 2026-08-19、20、21；北京时间和 UTC 均采用交易日日期。
• 传导链：ETF 份额增加 → 一级市场申购需求增加 → 可能对应基金托管金属增加。当前官方文件提供的是 Shares Outstanding、NAV 和 Total Net Assets，未提供同一文件中的 Ounces in Trust，因此本期只记录份额，不自行把份额换算成黄金吨数。
• 方向评分：黄金 +1，白银 0；份额变化置信度 100%，对实物托管变化的推断置信度 70%。
• 影响期限：数日至数周。
• 托管与库存边界：GLD 属于 ETF 占用资产，托管地点和金属盎司数需要另一个同口径官方持仓文件确认；本期没有把 GLD 份额加到 COMEX 或 SHFE 库存。
• 行情待验证：GLD 申赎篮子、实际 Ounces in Trust、金价与份额的同步变化，等待行情系统和 ETF 持仓文件验证。
• 反证与失效条件：如果后续份额下降，或份额增加主要由二级市场结构变化而非实物申购驱动，当前支撑解释会减弱。

7. 服务业加速，制造业放缓：8 月闪存 PMI 给出混合宏观信号

• 事件时间：2026-08-21 21:45（北京时间）/ 2026-08-21 13:45（UTC），解禁发布时间；调查期为 2026-08-12—20。
• 传导链：服务业和就业偏强 → 加息预期可能上升 → 金银承压；制造业放缓与投入成本降温 → 通胀压力可能减轻，对金银形成部分对冲。因此，本期方向评分为黄金 −1、白银 −1，而不是把综合 PMI 简单归为单向利空。
• 影响期限：数日至下一个通胀、就业数据窗口。
• 反证与失效条件：闪存数据可能在终值修订；若制造业继续走弱、服务业增速回落，当前偏鹰解释会失效。
• 行情待验证：实际利率、美元和利率期货对该数据的即时反应，等待行情系统验证。

8. 上期所恢复白银临近交割月套保额度自动转化

• 事件时间：公告日 2026-08-21；生效日为 2026 年 8 月最后一个交易日。
• 传导链：套保额度自动转化规则改变 → 临近交割月套保持仓管理和可用额度改变 → 沪银交割月流动性与持仓行为可能改变。规则本身不改变矿山产量、仓单总量或 ETF 托管量。
• 方向评分：黄金 0，白银 0；置信度 85%。
• 影响期限：生效日及其后交割月。
• 行情待验证：交割月持仓、套保客户持仓、成交量、持仓量和交收量，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：若实际使用额度的客户数量和持仓量很小，规则变化对市场流动性的影响有限。

9. ETF 证券借贷压力可见，仍属于证券市场指标

• 事件时间：2026-08-22 04:43（北京时间）/ 2026-08-21 20:43（UTC）为 IBorrowDesk 页面标注的读数时间；FINRA 数据日期为 2026-08-21。
• 传导链：借券费率、可借股份和做空成交量变化 → ETF/股票市场的交易压力变化 → 可能影响基金份额和价格波动。它们属于证券借贷与做空活动，不能写成金属租赁利率、实物仓单或自由库存。
• 方向评分：黄金 0，白银 0；置信度 98%；影响期限为数日至数周。
• 行情待验证：空头余额、ETF 净申赎、借券成交与价格冲击，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：做空成交量是当日成交活动，不等于空头余额；如果没有持仓、借券费率和价格同步变化，单日成交占比不构成持续压力。

10. 秘鲁 Ayacucho 发生 M6.7 地震，供给链影响仍待核实

• 事件时间：2026-08-21 02:00:18（北京时间）/ 2026-08-20 18:00:18（UTC）。
• 传导链：矿区附近地震 → 电力、道路和精矿运输中断风险上升 → 白银供给预期可能受扰动。当前只确认了地震本身，尚未确认具体矿山、冶炼厂、港口或道路受损。
• 方向评分：黄金 0，白银 +0.5；地震事实置信度 95%，供给传导置信度 45%。
• 影响期限：若有矿山通报，影响期限从数日延伸至数周；在此之前只列为观察项。
• 行情待验证：矿业公司公告、秘鲁能源矿业主管部门通报、矿区道路和电力状态，等待后续原始来源。
• 反证与失效条件：若后续没有停产、减产或物流中断公告，地震与白银供应之间的传导链失效。

口径边界与本期缺口

• 交易所库存：COMEX 的 Registered、Eligible、Pledged 和 Combined Total 分别来自不同字段；SHFE 仓单是已经制成仓单的货物数量。两套体系的单位、托管地和交割规则不同，本期不把它们相加。
• ETF 占用库存：本期只有 GLD 份额序列，没有取得同一口径的黄金盎司托管量；SLV 官方页面本轮没有返回可核验的最新持仓字段和数据截止日。ETF 占用库存不能与 COMEX、SHFE 仓单相加。
• 全球 ETF/ETP：本期没有取得全球金银 ETF/ETP 同口径的持仓、资金流和托管地点总表，单品种份额不外推全球流量。
• 跨市场流动性：本期没有取得窗口内可核验的伦敦租赁利率、EFP、现货升贴水、注销仓单、进口窗口和同一时点内外盘比价；这些字段保留为等待行情系统验证。
• 证券压力指标：本期已取得 FINRA 8 月 21 日 Reg SHO 做空成交量和 IBorrowDesk 8 月 21 日借券费率/可借股份。它们属于证券借贷与做空活动压力，不能替代实物仓单、金属租赁利率或自由库存。窗口内没有取得新一手 SEC FTD 批次，FTD 仍保留为缺口。
• LBMA 与 SGE：窗口内没有取得与上述日度交易所库存同口径的新金库总库存；SGE 公开交收量也没有被改写成金库库存。
• 行情判断：价格是否已经定价、尚未定价，及期货、期权、基差、波动率的具体读数，等待行情系统验证。

机器可读记录

{
  "event_id": "event-20260819-fomc-minutes",
  "event_time": {"beijing": "2026-08-20T02:00:00+08:00", "utc": "2026-08-19T18:00:00Z"},
  "published_at": "2026-08-19T18:00:00Z",
  "first_seen_at": "2026-08-24",
  "source_name": "Federal Reserve; Reuters for the 9-3 vote detail",
  "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm",
  "source_tier": "A with secondary confirmation for vote split",
  "event_type": "monetary_policy_minutes",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": -2, "silver": -2},
  "confidence": 92,
  "horizon": "short_to_medium_term",
  "novelty": "new_in_window",
  "raw_facts": {"current": "3.50%-3.75%; vote 9-3", "previous": "not applicable", "change": "three dissenting votes sought a 25bp hike", "unit": "federal funds target range and votes", "scope": "FOMC meeting 2026-07-28 to 2026-07-29; minutes released 2026-08-19"},
  "transmission_chain": "hawkish policy risk -> real yields and USD pressure -> higher opportunity cost for gold and silver",
  "market_checks": ["10Y TIPS real yield", "DXY", "front-end rate futures", "gold and silver term structure", "options skew"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["inflation continues to fall and September/October hikes are not delivered"]
}

{
  "event_id": "event-20260819-treasury-long-end-buyback",
  "event_time": {"beijing": "2026-08-19", "utc": "2026-08-19"},
  "published_at": "2026-08-19",
  "first_seen_at": "2026-08-24",
  "source_name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
  "source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "fiscal_liquidity_operation",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 2, "silver": 2},
  "confidence": 90,
  "horizon": "weeks_to_one_refunding_quarter",
  "novelty": "new_in_window",
  "raw_facts": {"current": "at least 4.0 billion USD per operation", "previous": "2.0 billion USD per operation", "change": "at least +2.0 billion USD; at least double", "unit": "nominal long-end liquidity support buyback size", "scope": "effective 2026-09-09 through 2026-11-04"},
  "transmission_chain": "long-end buyback capacity -> possible lower long-end yields -> lower opportunity cost of non-yielding metals",
  "market_checks": ["actual buyback sizes", "10Y/30Y nominal yields", "10Y TIPS real yield", "gold and silver response"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["executed volumes remain small", "inflation or term-premium shock dominates yields"]
}

{
  "event_id": "event-20260821-comex-stocks",
  "event_time": {"beijing": "2026-08-21", "utc": "2026-08-21"},
  "published_at": "2026-08-21",
  "first_seen_at": "2026-08-24",
  "source_name": "CME Group Daily Metal Stocks Report via Internet Archive snapshot",
  "source_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260821234620id_/https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls",
  "source_tier": "A-",
  "event_type": "exchange_inventory",
  "assets": ["silver", "gold"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 0, "silver": 0},
  "confidence": 98,
  "horizon": "delivery_month_to_several_weeks",
  "novelty": "new_in_window",
  "raw_facts": {"silver": {"report_date": "2026-08-21", "activity_date": "2026-08-20", "registered_current_oz": 99137741.359, "registered_previous_oz": 99256080.885, "registered_change_oz": -118339.526, "eligible_current_oz": 238726757.819, "eligible_previous_oz": 238279905.770, "eligible_change_oz": 446852.049, "combined_current_oz": 337864499.178, "combined_previous_oz": 337535986.655, "combined_change_oz": 328512.523}, "gold": {"report_date": "2026-08-21", "activity_date": "2026-08-20", "registered_current_oz": 14532511.560, "registered_previous_oz": 14514950.107, "registered_change_oz": 17561.453, "eligible_current_oz": 12163403.283, "eligible_previous_oz": 12165903.313, "eligible_change_oz": -2500.030, "combined_current_oz": 26695914.843, "combined_previous_oz": 26680853.420, "combined_change_oz": 15061.423}, "scope": "CME-approved depositories; gold combined total includes registered, pledged and eligible per report note"},
  "transmission_chain": "registered/eligible reclassification and net warehouse flow -> change in near-term delivery buffer",
  "market_checks": ["delivery notices", "warrant cancellations", "EFP", "front-month basis", "term structure"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["eligible continues to convert into registered", "combined total falls together with registered"]
}

{
  "event_id": "event-20260821-shfe-stocks",
  "event_time": {"beijing": "2026-08-21", "utc": "2026-08-21"},
  "published_at": "2026-08-21",
  "first_seen_at": "2026-08-24",
  "source_name": "Shanghai Futures Exchange",
  "source_url": "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260821/ZH/all.html",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "exchange_warehouse_receipts",
  "assets": ["silver", "gold"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 0, "silver": -1},
  "confidence": 99,
  "horizon": "days_to_weeks",
  "novelty": "new_in_window",
  "raw_facts": {"silver": {"current_kg": 1395307, "previous_kg": 1374017, "change_kg": 21290, "scope": "SHFE standard warehouse receipts; data date 2026-08-21"}, "gold": {"current_kg": 113658, "previous_kg": 113664, "change_kg": -6, "scope": "SHFE designated gold delivery vault; data date 2026-08-21"}},
  "transmission_chain": "more manufactured warehouse receipts -> larger standardized inventory available inside SHFE delivery system",
  "market_checks": ["receipt cancellations", "delivery and settlement flows", "near-month basis", "Shanghai-London premium"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["new receipts are promptly cancelled", "near-month premium widens despite the increase"]
}

{
  "event_id": "event-20260818-cftc-managed-money",
  "event_time": {"beijing": "2026-08-18", "utc": "2026-08-18"},
  "published_at": "2026-08-21",
  "first_seen_at": "2026-08-24",
  "source_name": "U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission",
  "source_url": "https://www.cftc.gov/dea/newcot/f_disagg.txt",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "derivatives_positioning",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 1, "silver": 1},
  "confidence": 99,
  "horizon": "days_to_weeks",
  "novelty": "new_in_window",
  "raw_facts": {"gold_managed_money": {"open_interest": 406260, "current_long": 154595, "current_short": 12947, "current_net": 141648, "previous_long": 148634, "previous_short": 10972, "previous_net": 137662, "net_change": 3986, "unit": "contracts"}, "silver_managed_money": {"open_interest": 120117, "current_long": 19533, "current_short": 7838, "current_net": 11695, "previous_long": 19956, "previous_short": 8798, "previous_net": 11158, "net_change": 537, "unit": "contracts"}, "scope": "Disaggregated Futures-Only; report date 2026-08-18; COMEX 100 oz gold and 5000 oz silver futures"},
  "transmission_chain": "managed-money net-long expansion -> short-term derivative demand and positioning support -> possible volatility on reversal",
  "market_checks": ["open interest", "commercial net position", "options skew", "price-volume confirmation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["rapid managed-money liquidation", "real-yield shock overwhelms positioning support"]
}

{
  "event_id": "event-20260819-21-gld-shares",
  "event_time": {"beijing": "2026-08-21", "utc": "2026-08-21"},
  "published_at": "2026-08-21",
  "first_seen_at": "2026-08-24",
  "source_name": "State Street Global Advisors, SPDR Gold Shares",
  "source_url": "https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/navhist-us-en-gld.xlsx",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "etf_shares_outstanding",
  "assets": ["gold"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 1, "silver": 0},
  "confidence": 100,
  "horizon": "days_to_weeks",
  "novelty": "new_in_window",
  "raw_facts": {"shares_outstanding": {"2026-08-18": 359300000, "2026-08-19": 362600000, "2026-08-20": 364100000, "2026-08-21": 367000000}, "change": {"2026-08-19": 3300000, "2026-08-20": 1500000, "2026-08-21": 2900000, "2026-08-18_to_2026-08-21": 7700000}, "unit": "shares", "scope": "GLD NAV history; official file does not provide Ounces in Trust in the same table"},
  "transmission_chain": "ETF share creation -> possible primary-market metal demand -> possible increase in ETF-occupied gold",
  "market_checks": ["Ounces in Trust", "creation/redemption baskets", "NAV premium/discount", "gold price and GLD share divergence"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["shares decline", "share change is not accompanied by physical creation"]
}

{
  "event_id": "event-20260821-sp-flash-pmi",
  "event_time": {"beijing": "2026-08-21T21:45:00+08:00", "utc": "2026-08-21T13:45:00Z"},
  "published_at": "2026-08-21T13:45:00Z",
  "first_seen_at": "2026-08-24",
  "source_name": "S&P Global",
  "source_url": "https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/552d682e429640fcb8af7da17ad060c3",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "macro_activity_survey",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": -1, "silver": -1},
  "confidence": 90,
  "horizon": "days_to_next_macro_release",
  "novelty": "new_in_window",
  "raw_facts": {"composite_current": 56.0, "composite_previous": 54.5, "services_current": 56.8, "services_previous": 54.6, "manufacturing_current": 53.2, "manufacturing_previous": 53.9, "unit": "PMI index points", "scope": "US flash PMI; survey collection 2026-08-12 to 2026-08-20"},
  "transmission_chain": "stronger services/employment -> possible tighter policy expectations -> metals headwind; slower manufacturing and cooling input costs -> partial offset",
  "market_checks": ["real yields", "USD", "rate futures", "final PMI revisions"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["final PMI revision", "services growth cools and manufacturing weakness broadens"]
}

{
  "event_id": "event-20260821-shfe-hedge-rule",
  "event_time": {"beijing": "2026-08-21", "utc": "2026-08-21"},
  "published_at": "2026-08-21",
  "first_seen_at": "2026-08-24",
  "source_name": "Shanghai Futures Exchange notice, transcribed by JinTou",
  "source_url": "https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/202608/t20260821_833060.html",
  "source_tier": "C: official page inaccessible in this run; secondary transcription used",
  "event_type": "exchange_rule",
  "assets": ["silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 0, "silver": 0},
  "confidence": 85,
  "horizon": "from_last_trading_day_of_august_through_delivery_months",
  "novelty": "new_in_window",
  "raw_facts": {"current": "automatic conversion of hedging position quota for nearby delivery months resumes", "previous": "not established from a readable official notice", "change": "rule takes effect from the last trading day of August 2026", "unit": "exchange position-quota rule", "scope": "SHFE silver hedging positions"},
  "transmission_chain": "hedging-quota conversion rule -> nearby-month hedging capacity and position management -> possible delivery-month liquidity change",
  "market_checks": ["nearby-month open interest", "hedger positions", "volume", "delivery flow"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["limited actual use by hedgers", "official text differs from the transcription"]
}

{
  "event_id": "event-20260820-ayacucho-earthquake",
  "event_time": {"beijing": "2026-08-21T02:00:18+08:00", "utc": "2026-08-20T18:00:18Z"},
  "published_at": "2026-08-20T18:00:18Z",
  "first_seen_at": "2026-08-24",
  "source_name": "U.S. Geological Survey",
  "source_url": "https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tm81",
  "source_tier": "A for earthquake; unverified for mine-supply impact",
  "event_type": "potential_supply_risk",
  "assets": ["silver", "gold"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 0, "silver": 0.5},
  "confidence": 45,
  "horizon": "conditional_days_to_weeks",
  "novelty": "new_in_window",
  "raw_facts": {"magnitude": 6.7, "location": "31 km NW of Aniso, Peru", "depth_km": 99, "alert": "green", "tsunami": 0, "status": "reviewed", "scope": "USGS event us6000tm81"},
  "transmission_chain": "earthquake near Andean mining belt -> possible infrastructure/transport disruption -> possible silver supply expectation shock",
  "market_checks": ["mine company notices", "Peru mining authority notices", "road and power status", "concentrate shipments"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["no mine, smelter, road or port disruption is confirmed"]
}