10年实际利率升至2.44%、SHFE白银仓单净减14,977千克：8月27日至9月1日贵金属事件雷达

数据截止与覆盖窗口

窗口内评分事件总表

1. 实际利率：10 年 TIPS 收益率升至 2.44%

• 方向评分：黄金 -2；白银 -2。
• 置信度：90%。收益率数值和来源口径均来自财政部官方序列，方向分数属于研究判断。
• 影响期限：短期至中期，直到实际利率回落或增长/通胀风险重新主导。
• 新增程度：高；8 月 28 日后的实际利率继续上行，窗口内的最新值达到 2.44%。
• 行情待验证项：美元指数、金银期货曲线、期权隐含波动率、现货溢价和实际利率变动的同步性，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：长端上行触发金融条件收紧和避险买盘，或实际利率回落而名义收益率仅因期限溢价上升。

{
  "event_id": "treasury-real-yield-10y-20260831",
  "impact_score": {"total": 92, "scope": 24, "transmission_directness": 24, "duration": 22, "data_change": 22},
  "event_time": "2026-09-01 03:30附近（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-31 19:30附近，记录8月31日观测值）",
  "published_at": null,
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
  "source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "us_10y_real_yield_increase",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": -2, "silver": -2},
  "confidence": 90,
  "horizon": "short_to_medium_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "10-year Treasury real constant maturity yield", "period": "2026-08-26 to 2026-08-31", "current": "2.44%", "previous": "2.34%", "change": "+0.10 percentage point (+10bp)", "unit": "percent per annum", "definition": "TIPS par real yield curve; Treasury interpolation from indicative bid-side quotations"},
    {"metric": "10-year Treasury nominal constant maturity yield", "period": "2026-08-26 to 2026-08-31", "current": "4.75%", "previous": "4.66%", "change": "+0.09 percentage point (+9bp)", "unit": "percent per annum", "definition": "Treasury par yield curve; nominal constant maturity"},
    {"metric": "10-year nominal minus real simple difference", "period": "2026-08-26 to 2026-08-31", "current": "2.31%", "previous": "2.32%", "change": "-0.01 percentage point (-1bp)", "unit": "percentage points", "definition": "author calculation from the two Treasury series; not a separately published complete breakeven series"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "real yield rises -> opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and silver rises -> short-term precious-metals valuation faces pressure, subject to dollar and risk-aversion confirmation",
  "market_checks": ["US dollar", "gold and silver futures curves", "option implied volatility", "spot premium and basis", "price reaction: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["higher long yields trigger safe-haven demand", "real yields fall while nominal yields rise only through term premium", "dollar and precious-metals prices fail to move with the real-yield factor"]
}

2. Warsh 讲话：价格稳定优先，常态化前瞻指引收缩

• 方向评分：黄金 -2；白银 -2。
• 置信度：78%。讲话原文直接支持政策表述，市场传导属于研究判断。
• 影响期限：短中期，取决于后续政策沟通与宏观数据。
• 新增程度：高；窗口内新增主席级政策沟通，且核心信息不同于 FOMC 决议。
• 行情待验证项：短端利率期货、美元、实际利率、金银价格与波动率，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：后续就业或增长快速转弱、联储重新提供强前瞻指引、或避险资金流入黄金抵消利率压力。

{
  "event_id": "federal-reserve-warsh-jackson-hole-20260828",
  "impact_score": {"total": 88, "scope": 24, "transmission_directness": 20, "duration": 22, "data_change": 22},
  "event_time": "Jackson Hole当地日期2026-08-28；讲话安排在当地上午，具体时刻未披露，北京时间与UTC换算未知",
  "published_at": null,
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "Federal Reserve Board",
  "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "fed_policy_communication_prices_first",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": -2, "silver": -2},
  "confidence": 78,
  "horizon": "short_to_medium_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "policy emphasis", "period": "2026-08-28 speech", "current": "chairman states the Fed's predominant focus should be on prices", "previous": null, "change": "new policy communication in the window", "unit": "policy statement", "definition": "Chairman Warsh keynote remarks"},
    {"metric": "normal-time forward guidance", "period": "2026-08-28 speech", "current": "limited and circumscribed", "previous": null, "change": "new policy framework statement in the window", "unit": "policy communication", "definition": "chairman description of normal-time forward guidance"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "if markets interpret prices-first communication and narrower normal-time forward guidance as less certainty of rapid easing -> real-rate and dollar upside risk may increase -> precious-metals valuation may face pressure, with safe-haven demand as a possible offset; market confirmation is pending",
  "market_checks": ["short-rate futures", "US dollar", "real yields", "gold and silver volatility and price", "policy repricing: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["subsequent labor or growth deterioration dominates", "later communication restores strong forward guidance", "safe-haven flows offset the rate channel"]
}

3. CFTC：管理基金金银净多增加，生产商与贸易商净空扩大

• 方向评分：黄金 +2；白银 +1。
• 置信度：92%。CFTC 原始表和周变化字段完整，方向分数属于研究判断。
• 影响期限：短期，下一次持仓报告或价格波动会改变信号。
• 新增程度：高；这是窗口内最新发布的 8 月 25 日持仓周数据。
• 行情待验证项：金银价格、成交量、隐含波动率、期限结构和下一期管理基金净多，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：管理基金迅速平仓、生产商与贸易商净空继续扩大并压过资金方向，或价格与成交量没有确认净多变化。

{
  "event_id": "cftc-disaggregated-futures-only-20260825",
  "impact_score": {"total": 84, "scope": 20, "transmission_directness": 23, "duration": 20, "data_change": 21},
  "event_time": "数据截止日2026-08-25，具体时刻与时区未披露",
  "published_at": "2026-08-29 03:30（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-28 19:30，按CFTC官方发布时间表对应）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission",
  "source_url": "https://www.cftc.gov/dea/newcot/f_disagg.txt",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "cftc_disaggregated_futures_only_position_change",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 2, "silver": 1},
  "confidence": 92,
  "horizon": "short_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "COMEX Gold open interest", "period": "2026-08-25 vs 2026-08-18", "current": 427957, "previous": 406260, "change": 21697, "unit": "contracts", "definition": "Disaggregated Futures-Only; 100 troy ounces per contract"},
    {"metric": "COMEX Gold Managed Money simple net", "period": "2026-08-25 vs 2026-08-18", "current": 144747, "previous": 141648, "change": 3099, "unit": "contracts", "definition": "Managed Money long minus short; spreads excluded"},
    {"metric": "COMEX Gold Producer/Merchant simple net", "period": "2026-08-25 vs 2026-08-18", "current": -34558, "previous": -29761, "change": -4797, "unit": "contracts", "definition": "Producer/Merchant long minus short"},
    {"metric": "COMEX Silver open interest", "period": "2026-08-25 vs 2026-08-18", "current": 113801, "previous": 120117, "change": -6316, "unit": "contracts", "definition": "Disaggregated Futures-Only; 5000 troy ounces per contract"},
    {"metric": "COMEX Silver Managed Money simple net", "period": "2026-08-25 vs 2026-08-18", "current": 14073, "previous": 11695, "change": 2378, "unit": "contracts", "definition": "Managed Money long minus short; spreads excluded"},
    {"metric": "COMEX Silver Producer/Merchant simple net", "period": "2026-08-25 vs 2026-08-18", "current": -17153, "previous": -16087, "change": -1066, "unit": "contracts", "definition": "Producer/Merchant long minus short"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "Managed Money net longs increase -> short-term futures positioning provides a positive directional input -> price and volume confirmation are required before assessing the market effect, while expanding Producer/Merchant net shorts provide an opposing hedging signal",
  "market_checks": ["gold and silver price/volume", "implied volatility and term structure", "next CFTC report", "spot and warehouse variables: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["Managed Money rapidly liquidates", "Producer/Merchant net shorts expand enough to dominate", "price and volume fail to confirm the positioning change"]
}

4. SHFE：白银标准仓单 8 月 26 日至 31 日净减 14,977 千克

• 方向评分：黄金 0；白银 +1。
• 置信度：98%。三张日期原表的总计与日增减均可读取，传导方向属于研究判断。
• 影响期限：短期，直到后续仓单回流或交割数据确认。
• 新增程度：高；白银 8 月 31 日新报告把窗口内累计变化推进至 14,977 千克。
• 行情待验证项：SHFE 白银基差、近月交割、注销仓单、SGE 现货溢价和跨市场比价，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：仓单减少来自仓库调拨或持有人结构变化、后续快速回流、或现货与期货基差没有同步收紧。

{
  "event_id": "shfe-silver-standard-warrant-change-20260826-31",
  "impact_score": {"total": 78, "scope": 17, "transmission_directness": 23, "duration": 20, "data_change": 18},
  "event_time": "报告日期2026-08-31；具体发布时间和UTC换算未知",
  "published_at": null,
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "Shanghai Futures Exchange",
  "source_url": "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260831/ZH/all.html",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "shfe_standard_warrant_change",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 0, "silver": 1},
  "confidence": 98,
  "horizon": "short_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "SHFE gold standard warrants", "period": "2026-08-26 to 2026-08-31", "current": 113658, "previous": 113658, "change": 0, "unit": "kilograms", "definition": "official daily stock report; 'futures' means goods already made into warrants"},
    {"metric": "SHFE silver standard warrants", "period": "2026-08-26 to 2026-08-31", "current": 1395567, "previous": 1410544, "change": -14977, "unit": "kilograms", "definition": "official daily stock report; 8/29-30 weekend omitted"},
    {"metric": "SHFE silver daily change field", "period": "2026-08-31 vs 2026-08-28", "current": -14432, "previous": -6856, "change": -7576, "unit": "kilograms", "definition": "report's daily increase/decrease field; the comparable field is the 2026-08-28 report value"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "SHFE silver standard warrants decrease -> visible already-warranted silver in the SHFE delivery system decreases -> near-month delivery tightness may increase -> basis and spot-premium confirmation is required",
  "market_checks": ["SHFE silver basis", "near-month delivery", "canceled warrants", "SGE spot premium", "cross-market spread: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["warrant decrease reflects warehouse transfer or holder structure", "warrants return quickly", "spot and futures basis do not tighten"]
}

5. South32：Cannington 与 Taylor 把白银供给变化推向中长期

• 方向评分：黄金 0；白银 -1。短期白银供给评分为 0，中长期评分为-2；总表采用跨期限后的弱偏空研究评分。
• 置信度：86%。公司原始展望文件支持金额、指导和时间点，实际产量仍需后续披露。
• 影响期限：Cannington 为 FY27—FY28，Taylor 为 FY28 下半年以后。
• 新增程度：高；窗口内出现新的公司展望与资本执行信息。
• 行情待验证项：Cannington 白银实际产量、Taylor 施工进度、资本开支兑现、矿石品位和白银精矿流，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：低品位库存回收率低于计划、延寿设施延迟或超支、Taylor 首产延期、矿山安全事件或公司下调指导。

{
  "event_id": "south32-cannington-taylor-outlook-20260827",
  "impact_score": {"total": 69, "scope": 16, "transmission_directness": 18, "duration": 18, "data_change": 17},
  "event_time": "原始文件日期2026-08-27；具体发布时间、北京时间与UTC换算未披露",
  "published_at": null,
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "South32 Limited",
  "source_url": "https://www.south32.net/investors/annual-reporting-suite/fy26-in-review",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "silver_byproduct_supply_outlook",
  "assets": ["silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 0, "silver": -1},
  "confidence": 86,
  "horizon": "medium_to_long_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "Cannington payable zinc equivalent production", "period": "FY26 actual vs FY25 actual", "current": "205.4 kt", "previous": null, "change": "-28.8 kt (-12%)", "unit": "kilotonnes zinc equivalent", "definition": "company-reported change; the FY25 absolute value is not used because this section does not disclose it independently"},
    {"metric": "Cannington silver guidance", "period": "FY27 and FY28", "current": 8725, "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "thousand troy ounces per year", "definition": "company guidance; FY27/FY28 silver component"},
    {"metric": "Taylor first production and mine life", "period": "company current outlook", "current": "first production H2 FY28; initial operating life about 33 years", "previous": "operating life increased by 5 years", "change": "+5 years to about 33 years", "unit": "years and project timing", "definition": "South32 project outlook"},
    {"metric": "Hermosa Taylor growth capital", "period": "FY26 actual and FY27 estimate", "current": "US$711 million and US$1.0 billion", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "US dollars", "definition": "company growth capital expenditure"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "Cannington processing and life-extension investment plus Taylor construction -> future zinc-lead-silver byproduct capacity is supported -> medium and long-term silver supply expectation becomes slightly looser, while current deliverable supply is unchanged",
  "market_checks": ["Cannington realized silver production", "Taylor construction and capex", "ore grade and recovery", "silver concentrate flows and prices: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["lower recovery from stockpiled material", "infrastructure delay or cost overrun", "Taylor first production delay", "safety event or guidance reduction"]
}

6. BLS：初步基准差额下调，不立即改写 CES

• 方向评分：黄金 +1；白银 +1。
• 置信度：68%。修订数字和 QCEW 数字来自 BLS，但利率传导取决于未来市场定价。
• 影响期限：短中期，当前报告对政策预期的影响可能先于 2027 年正式修订。
• 新增程度：高；窗口内新增官方初步基准修订与 QCEW 报告。
• 行情待验证项：短端利率期货、美元、实际收益率、后续就业数据和金银价格，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：工资黏性压过就业下修、后续就业重新走强、利率市场不响应，或最终修订明显偏离初步值。

{
  "event_id": "bls-ces-preliminary-benchmark-202603-revision-20260828",
  "impact_score": {"total": 63, "scope": 17, "transmission_directness": 17, "duration": 14, "data_change": 15},
  "event_time": "2026-03参考期；报告于2026-08-28 22:00（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-28 14:00）发布",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28 22:00（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-28 14:00）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
  "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/prebmk_08282026.htm",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "ces_preliminary_benchmark_revision",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 1, "silver": 1},
  "confidence": 68,
  "horizon": "short_to_medium_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "national nonfarm employment preliminary benchmark revision", "period": "March 2026", "current": -79000, "previous": null, "change": "-0.1% benchmark difference", "unit": "jobs", "definition": "preliminary CES benchmark revision; current CES estimates are not immediately updated"},
    {"metric": "private employment preliminary benchmark revision", "period": "March 2026", "current": -178000, "previous": null, "change": "-0.1% benchmark difference", "unit": "jobs", "definition": "preliminary CES benchmark revision"},
    {"metric": "QCEW national employment", "period": "March 2026", "current": 154.7719, "previous": null, "change": "+0.1% year over year", "unit": "million jobs", "definition": "preliminary QCEW county employment"},
    {"metric": "QCEW average weekly wage", "period": "2026 Q1", "current": 1654, "previous": null, "change": "+3.9% year over year", "unit": "US dollars per week", "definition": "preliminary national average weekly wage"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "employment benchmark downside revision -> labor-market resilience assessment softens -> possible easing expectations and lower real rates support precious metals, while QCEW employment and wage growth constrain the easing interpretation",
  "market_checks": ["short-rate futures", "US dollar", "real yields", "subsequent employment data", "gold and silver prices: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["wage persistence dominates the employment revision", "subsequent employment data strengthens", "rates market does not respond", "final benchmark revision differs materially from the preliminary revision"]
}

7. Heliostar：La Colorada 项目 Veta Madre 矿坑开始露天采矿

• 方向评分：黄金 -1；白银 0。
• 置信度：80%。重启状态来自公告，未来产量仍取决于堆浸设施、回收率和执行。
• 影响期限：中期，2027 年以后更明显。
• 新增程度：高；窗口内出现采矿活动重启这一状态变化。
• 行情待验证项：矿石堆浸启动、回收率、实际产量、现金成本和 2026 年指引兑现，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：采矿许可或施工延误、堆浸设施未按期投运、回收率或成本不达标、运营事故导致指引下修，或潜在目标未转化为储量。

{
  "event_id": "heliostar-la-colorada-veta-madre-open-pit-restart-20260827",
  "impact_score": {"total": 58, "scope": 14, "transmission_directness": 16, "duration": 15, "data_change": 13},
  "event_time": "2026-08-27 18:30（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-27 10:30；公告标注06:30 EDT）",
  "published_at": "2026-08-27 18:30（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-27 10:30）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "Heliostar Metals Ltd., published through Newsfile",
  "source_url": "https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/311766/Heliostar-Commences-Open-Pit-Mining-at-La-Colorada-Mine",
  "source_tier": "A-",
  "event_type": "gold_mine_open_pit_restart",
  "assets": ["gold"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": -1, "silver": 0},
  "confidence": 80,
  "horizon": "medium_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "Veta Madre open-pit mining status", "period": "2026-08-27", "current": "open-pit mining commenced", "previous": "restart baseline production not disclosed", "change": "mining activity restarted", "unit": "operational status", "definition": "company announcement; realized refined output not yet disclosed"},
    {"metric": "La Colorada current reserve", "period": "current technical report and operating plan", "current": 376000, "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "troy ounces of gold", "definition": "company reserve reference"},
    {"metric": "2026 gold production guidance", "period": "2026", "current": "20000-22300", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "troy ounces", "definition": "company guidance; higher-grade new ore planned for heap leach from the following year"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "open-pit mining starts -> if new ore enters planned production preparation and heap-leach processing with the expected recovery rate -> potential higher gold supply from 2027 -> medium-term supply expectation may become slightly looser",
  "market_checks": ["heap-leach start", "recovery rate", "realized production", "cash cost and guidance", "gold price and supply response: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["permit or construction delay", "heap-leach facility delay", "recovery or cost underperformance", "operating incident and guidance reduction", "potential target fails to convert into reserve"]
}

8. SGE：延期交收流量先升后降，方向留在零分

• 方向评分：黄金 0；白银 0。
• 置信度：90%。三张交易所原表的交收值可读取，方向保持中性是对信息边界的判断。
• 影响期限：短期，需下一交易日交收和持仓数据确认。
• 新增程度：中；窗口内新增三日官方交收流量序列。
• 行情待验证项：合约持仓变化、基差、现货溢价、租借费率、交收后库存去向，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：交收量放大仅由头寸迁移或双向计量结构造成，或后续持仓和基差没有同步变化。

{
  "event_id": "sge-au-ag-tplusd-delivery-flow-20260827-31",
  "impact_score": {"total": 45, "scope": 10, "transmission_directness": 14, "duration": 10, "data_change": 11},
  "event_time": "交易日范围2026-08-27至2026-08-31；页面未披露具体发布时间，UTC换算未知",
  "published_at": null,
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "Shanghai Gold Exchange",
  "source_url": "https://sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-31&end_date=2026-08-31",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "sge_deferred_delivery_flow",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 0, "silver": 0},
  "confidence": 90,
  "horizon": "short_term",
  "novelty": "medium",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "Ag(T+D) delivery volume", "period": "2026-08-27 to 2026-08-31", "current": "7620 lots on 8/31", "previous": "12450 lots on 8/27; 37110 lots on 8/28", "change": "+24660 lots from 8/27 to 8/28; -29490 lots from 8/28 to 8/31", "unit": "lots", "definition": "SGE daily report; deferred-delivery contract flow"},
    {"metric": "Au(T+D) delivery volume", "period": "2026-08-27 to 2026-08-31", "current": "20164 lots on 8/31", "previous": "9812 lots on 8/27; 15652 lots on 8/28", "change": "+5840 lots then +4512 lots", "unit": "lots", "definition": "SGE daily report; deferred-delivery contract flow"},
    {"metric": "delivery direction", "period": "2026-08-27 to 2026-08-31", "current": "Ag(T+D) Short to Long; Au(T+D) Long to Short", "previous": null, "change": "direction field unchanged across the three observed days", "unit": "direction label", "definition": "SGE report direction field; not an inventory balance"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "deferred-delivery volume changes -> observation of near-term settlement activity increases or decreases -> basis, open interest and spot premium must confirm whether physical tightness changed",
  "market_checks": ["open interest", "basis", "spot premium", "gold-lending reference rate", "post-delivery inventory destination: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["volume change is only position migration", "bilateral measurement obscures net flow", "open interest and basis do not change with delivery volume"]
}

库存、ETF 与跨市场结构化刷新

COMEX：金总量增加，银总量减少；Registered 变化含库内重分类

ETF 占用库存：GLD 有连续值，SLV 仅有 8 月 31 日存量

SGE 黄金租借：一年期加权平均参考费率升 3 个基点

ETF 证券压力结构化快照：Reg SHO、借券费率与可借股份

仍待验证的覆盖缺口

• 全球 ETF/ETP。 本轮没有取得窗口内新的全球黄金月度观测；全球白银 ETF/ETP 同口径总持仓、资金流和托管地点总表仍缺失。本文只使用 GLD 前后值和 SLV 单点存量。
• 托管体系库存。 COMEX 与 SHFE 已刷新；本轮没有取得 LBMA 窗口内月度金库新值，SGE 公开页只给交收流量，没有同口径每日金库总库存或仓单总表。
• 现货与跨市场流动性。 SGE 黄金租借参考费率与 Au(T+D)/Ag(T+D)交收流量已取得；LBMA 租赁利率、EFP、现货升贴水、注销仓单、进口窗口和同一时点内外盘比价仍为等待行情系统验证。
• 失败交割。 FINRA short volume 和 IBorrowDesk 借券指标已刷新；本轮没有取得覆盖 8 月 27 日至 31 日的 SEC failure-to-deliver 批次，旧批次没有用于代替当前窗口。
• 其他实体供需。 Harmony 官网详情页被反爬挑战拦截，Silver Institute 八月月报缺少窗口内精确发布日期，印度官方 IIBX 进口记录没有取得可访问正文；这些候选没有进入事实层。9 月 1 日 JOLTS 发布时间为北京时间 22:00，超出本期截止时间。