PCE同比3.7%、SHFE白银仓单净减10,579千克：8月24—27日贵金属事件雷达

窗口总表

1. 实际利率：10 年期 TIPS 窗口净降 6bp

• 数据日：2026 年 8 月 24 日、25 日、26 日；8 月 26 日数值在北京时间 8 月 27 日 04:30 前后可见，约对应 UTC 8 月 26 日 20:30。
• 发布与数据截止：页面更新时点与美国报价日分开记录；表内数值对应各美东数据日。
• 关键原始数据：10 年期实际收益率 2.40%→2.34%，变化-0.06 个百分点；名义 10 年期 4.74%→4.66%，变化-0.08 个百分点。由名义收益率减实际收益率得到的 10 年期盈亏平衡通胀约为 2.34%→2.32%，这是派生值。
• 传导链：实际收益率下降→持有无息贵金属的利息机会成本下降→黄金与白银的宏观定价支撑增加。名义收益率同步下降而派生盈亏平衡通胀大致稳定，说明这组变化包含实际利率与名义利率共同下行的成分。
• 方向评分：黄金 +2/−5 至+5；白银 +2/−5 至+5。
• 置信度：75%。影响期限：短期，若实际收益率继续沿同一方向变化，观察窗口可延长至下一次联储会议前。
• 新增程度：高；这是窗口内可验证的日度收益率序列更新。
• 行情待验证项：金银现货与期货价格、实际基差、EFP、期权隐含波动率及市场是否已定价，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：实际收益率重新升至 8 月 21 日以上，或美元、期限溢价等其他定价变量抵消利率变化，以上方向分数需要下调。

{
  "event_id": "unit-macro-item-003",
  "event_time": "2026-08-26（美国数据日；北京时间2026-08-27 04:30前后可见；UTC 2026-08-26 20:30前后）",
  "published_at": "2026-08-27 04:30前后（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-26 20:30前后）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "美国财政部 Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates",
  "source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "real_yield_curve_update",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 2, "silver": 2},
  "confidence": 75,
  "horizon": "short_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "10Y TIPS real yield", "period": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-26", "current": "2.34%", "previous": "2.40%", "change": "-0.06 percentage points (-6bp)", "unit": "percent", "definition": "Treasury par real yield curve, R-CMT"},
    {"metric": "10Y nominal CMT", "period": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-26", "current": "4.66%", "previous": "4.74%", "change": "-0.08 percentage points (-8bp)", "unit": "percent", "definition": "Treasury par nominal yield curve"},
    {"metric": "10Y breakeven inflation", "period": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-26", "current": "about 2.32%", "previous": "about 2.34%", "change": "derived from nominal CMT minus real CMT", "unit": "percent", "definition": "author calculation, not a Treasury-published field"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "10Y real yield falls -> opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing metals falls -> macro support for gold and silver increases",
  "market_checks": ["spot and futures prices", "realized basis and EFP", "spot premium/discount", "options implied volatility", "whether the move has been priced in: waiting for market system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["10Y real yield reverses above the 2026-08-21 level", "dollar or term-premium moves offset the real-yield signal"]
}

2. SHFE 白银仓单：8/24 大增后连续两日回落，黄金仓单持平

• 事件时间：2026 年 8 月 24 日、25 日、26 日（北京时间；分别对应 UTC 前一日 16:00 至当日 16:00 的交易日区间）。
• 发布与数据截止：每个日报对应各自交易日；8 月 26 日原表已落盘，8 月 24 日和 25 日数值来自本轮成功读取的同一官方日报入口，重取时出现访问验证，独立缓存缺口已保留。
• 关键原始数据：白银 1,395,307→1,421,123→1,412,903→1,410,544 千克，窗口净变动-10,579 千克；黄金三日均 113,658 千克，变动 0。
• 传导链：白银标准仓单回落→交易所可见期货仓单缓冲减少的观察项→交割供给链的边际压力增加。8 月 24 日的单日增加、随后两日的注销或流转表明方向需要继续观察，不能只用窗口末值解释全部过程。
• 方向评分：黄金 0；白银 +2。
• 置信度：黄金 78%、白银 78%；影响期限：短期。
• 新增程度：高；白银日报提供了窗口内连续三日变化。
• 行情待验证项：Ag 主力合约价格、期限结构、EFP、现货升贴水、注销仓单对应的成交与转库原因，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：白银标准仓单重新持续增加，或其他交割体系的可用货物同步增加，仓单回落对可交割供给的解释需要下调。

{
  "event_id": "unit-inventory-item-005",
  "event_time": "2026-08-24 to 2026-08-26（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-23 16:00 to 2026-08-26 16:00）",
  "published_at": "2026-08-24 to 2026-08-26（各交易日官方日报）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "上海期货交易所白银标准仓单日报",
  "source_url": "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260826/ZH/all.html",
  "source_tier": "A（8月26日原表；8月24日和25日同官方入口读取）",
  "event_type": "exchange_registered_warrant_update",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 0, "silver": 2},
  "confidence": 78,
  "horizon": "short_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "SHFE silver futures standard warrants", "period": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-26", "current": "1410544 kg", "previous": "1395307 kg", "change": "-10579 kg from 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-26; daily path +25816, -8220, -2359 kg", "unit": "kg", "definition": "goods already made into standard warrants"},
    {"metric": "SHFE gold futures standard warrants", "period": "2026-08-24 to 2026-08-26", "current": "113658 kg", "previous": "113658 kg", "change": "0 kg", "unit": "kg", "definition": "goods already made into standard warrants"},
    {"metric": "SHFE silver weekly registered goods", "period": "latest weekly report 2026-08-21", "current": "1395307 kg", "previous": "1334644 kg", "change": "+60663 kg", "unit": "kg", "definition": "weekly report registered goods; kept separate from daily report"},
    {"metric": "SHFE silver available capacity", "period": "latest weekly report 2026-08-21", "current": "4104693 kg", "previous": "4165356 kg", "change": "-60663 kg", "unit": "kg", "definition": "weekly report available warehouse capacity"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "SHFE silver standard warrants fall after an initial increase -> visible futures-warrant buffer may shrink -> silver delivery-supply pressure requires further confirmation",
  "market_checks": ["SHFE silver futures term structure", "EFP", "spot premium/discount", "cancellation and transfer reasons", "other warehouse systems: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["silver standard warrants rise persistently", "other delivery systems show a simultaneous increase in immediately usable material", "the daily change reflects transfer timing rather than a sustained warrant reduction"]
}

3. COMEX 仓储：黄金 Eligible 增加，白银 Registered 与 Eligible 也小幅增加

• 事件时间：报告日 2026 年 8 月 24 日、25 日、26 日；捕获时间分别为北京时间 8 月 25 日 05:30、8 月 26 日 05:30、8 月 27 日 05:30 左右，约对应 UTC 前一日 21:30。
• 发布与数据截止：报告日是库存统计日期，Wayback 捕获时间是归档读取时点；两者分别记录。
• 关键原始数据：黄金 Registered 14,532,511.560→14,545,334.889 盎司，Eligible 12,163,403.283→12,357,234.356 盎司，Combined 26,695,914.843→26,902,569.245 盎司；白银 Registered 99,137,741.359→99,188,003.482 盎司，Eligible 238,726,757.819→239,070,829.911 盎司，Combined 337,864,499.178→338,258,833.393 盎司。
• 传导链：COMEX 分库库存变化→Registered 与 Eligible 之间的可转换、交割与托管选择变化→期货交割缓冲观察。黄金的窗口增量主要来自 Eligible，白银的窗口增量也主要来自 Eligible；这组数据本身没有给出金属是否可立即交割的结论。
• 方向评分：黄金 +1；白银 +1。
• 置信度：88%；影响期限：短至中期。
• 新增程度：高；三日官方原表均有数值，但 8 月 25 日及 26 日交割日报另有归档缺口。
• 行情待验证项：Registered 与 Eligible 转换、仓单注销、交割通知、COMEX 期限结构和 EFP，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：Registered 持续增加且交割通知下降，或 Eligible 增加主要来自不可用于当前合约的库存口径，以上方向分数需要下调。

{
  "event_id": "unit-inventory-item-001-002",
  "event_time": "2026-08-24 to 2026-08-26（报告日；北京时间；UTC 2026-08-23 21:30 to 2026-08-26 21:30的归档窗口）",
  "published_at": "2026-08-25 to 2026-08-27（Wayback捕获时点，报告日分别为8月24日至26日）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "CME COMEX Gold_Stocks.xls and Silver_stocks.xls official tables via exact Wayback snapshots",
  "source_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260826213004id_/https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls",
  "source_tier": "A-",
  "event_type": "comex_depository_stock_update",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 1, "silver": 1},
  "confidence": 88,
  "horizon": "short_to_medium_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "gold Registered", "period": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-26", "current": "14545334.889 oz", "previous": "14532511.560 oz", "change": "+12823.329 oz", "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "COMEX Registered; Pledged is shown within this reporting structure"},
    {"metric": "gold Pledged", "period": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-26", "current": "1695988.548 oz", "previous": "1713350.073 oz", "change": "-17361.525 oz", "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "CME Gold_Stocks row"},
    {"metric": "gold Eligible", "period": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-26", "current": "12357234.356 oz", "previous": "12163403.283 oz", "change": "+193831.073 oz", "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "COMEX Eligible"},
    {"metric": "gold Combined", "period": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-26", "current": "26902569.245 oz", "previous": "26695914.843 oz", "change": "+206654.402 oz", "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "combined warehouse reporting field"},
    {"metric": "silver Registered", "period": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-26", "current": "99188003.482 oz", "previous": "99137741.359 oz", "change": "+50262.123 oz", "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "COMEX Registered"},
    {"metric": "silver Eligible", "period": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-26", "current": "239070829.911 oz", "previous": "238726757.819 oz", "change": "+344072.092 oz", "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "COMEX Eligible"},
    {"metric": "silver Combined", "period": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-26", "current": "338258833.393 oz", "previous": "337864499.178 oz", "change": "+394334.215 oz", "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "Registered plus Eligible reporting field"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "COMEX depository category changes -> possible change in registered/eligible delivery buffer -> futures delivery-supply observation",
  "market_checks": ["registered-to-eligible conversions", "warehouse warrant cancellations", "delivery notices", "COMEX term structure and EFP", "whether the change is reflected in prices: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["Registered stock rises persistently while delivery notices fall", "the increase is confined to material unavailable to the relevant contract", "warehouse transfers reverse the reported direction"]
}

4. 美国 7 月 PCE：总 PCE 同比 3.7%，核心 PCE 同比 3.3%

• 发布时间：2026 年 8 月 26 日 20:30（北京时间；UTC 2026 年 8 月 26 日 12:30）。数据期：2026 年 7 月。
• 关键原始数据：总 PCE 价格指数环比-0.1%→+0.2%，变化+0.3 个百分点；核心 PCE 环比+0.1%→+0.2%，变化+0.1 个百分点；同比为 3.7%与 3.3%。6 月值是本次发布后的修正值。
• 传导链：通胀数据与收入、实际消费同步更新→利率路径和实际利率预期改变→黄金与白银宏观定价重新寻找平衡。同比通胀仍高于 2%目标附近的常用参照，环比读数提供的是单月变化。
• 方向评分：黄金 +1；白银 +1。
• 置信度：82%；影响期限：短至中期。
• 新增程度：高；官方月度数据在窗口内首次发布。
• 行情待验证项：数据发布前后金银价格、美元、实际收益率、联邦基金期货路径和期权波动率，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：后续月度通胀回落、实际消费走弱，或联储反应函数对该单月数据权重较低，方向分数需要下调。

{
  "event_id": "unit-macro-item-001",
  "event_time": "2026-08-26 20:30（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-26 12:30；数据期2026年7月）",
  "published_at": "2026-08-26 20:30（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-26 12:30）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis",
  "source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2026",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "inflation_and_personal_income_release",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 1, "silver": 1},
  "confidence": 82,
  "horizon": "short_to_medium_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "PCE price index month over month", "period": "2026-07", "current": "+0.2%", "previous": "-0.1% revised June", "change": "+0.3 percentage points", "unit": "percent", "definition": "BEA PCE price index"},
    {"metric": "PCE price index year over year", "period": "2026-07", "current": "+3.7%", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "percent", "definition": "BEA PCE price index"},
    {"metric": "core PCE price index month over month", "period": "2026-07", "current": "+0.2%", "previous": "+0.1% revised June", "change": "+0.1 percentage points", "unit": "percent", "definition": "excluding food and energy"},
    {"metric": "core PCE price index year over year", "period": "2026-07", "current": "+3.3%", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "percent", "definition": "excluding food and energy"},
    {"metric": "personal income", "period": "2026-07", "current": "+$115.1 billion", "previous": null, "change": "+0.4% month over month", "unit": "US dollars and percent", "definition": "BEA current-dollar personal income"},
    {"metric": "real PCE", "period": "2026-07", "current": "about 0.0% month over month", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "percent", "definition": "BEA real personal consumption expenditures"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "PCE inflation and income update -> policy-rate and real-yield expectations adjust -> gold and silver macro pricing rebalances",
  "market_checks": ["Treasury real yields", "dollar", "Fed funds futures", "gold and silver futures and options", "whether the release was priced in: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["subsequent inflation data falls materially", "the Federal Reserve assigns little weight to this monthly release", "real yields and policy expectations move in the opposite direction"]
}

5. ETF 托管量：GLD 减少、GLDM 增加；证券压力指标同时更新

• ETF 事件时间：2026 年 8 月 21—26 日 trade date；SLV 与 IAU 最新值对应 2026 年 8 月 26 日，约为北京时间 8 月 27 日收盘数据可见期。
• 证券压力事件时间：FINRA 交易日 2026 年 8 月 26 日；IBorrowDesk 更新时间 2026 年 8 月 27 日 04:42（北京时间；UTC 2026 年 8 月 26 日 20:42）。
• 传导链：ETF 份额变化与托管量变化→产品层金属占用发生变化→对应产品的可流通金属观察；证券卖空成交量与借券条件→证券市场压力观察。产品级托管量、交易所库存、ETF 证券压力各自保留原口径。
• 方向评分：黄金 0；白银 0。GLD 与 GLDM 的黄金方向相反，SLV 与 IAU 缺少同口径前值，因此把产品证据和方向判断分开。
• 置信度：产品绝对值 90%；跨产品解释 65%。影响期限：短期。
• 新增程度：高；GLD、GLDM 有窗口内连续值，SLV、IAU 只有 8 月 26 日快照。
• 行情待验证项：创建/赎回篮子、ETF 价格与 NAV 偏离、金银期货、借券费率连续序列、FTD 和空头余额，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：GLD 与 GLDM 的流量由产品转换或份额结构造成，或连续日数据反向修正，跨产品方向解释需要下调。

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  "event_id": "unit-inventory-item-010-015",
  "event_time": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-27（ETF trade dates and securities-pressure update; 北京时间）",
  "published_at": "2026-08-27 04:42（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-26 20:42，IBorrowDesk更新时间）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "SPDR, iShares, JPMorgan, FINRA and IBorrowDesk product-level and securities-pressure data",
  "source_url": "https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/",
  "source_tier": "A for official ETF pages and bar list; B for IBorrowDesk transcription",
  "event_type": "etf_custody_and_securities_pressure_update",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver", "GLD", "GLDM", "SLV", "IAU"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 0, "silver": 0},
  "confidence": 90,
  "horizon": "short_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "GLD ounces in trust", "period": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-26", "current": "33613717.91 oz", "previous": "33668746.32 oz", "change": "-128339.16 oz from 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-26", "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "official product and historical archive, trade-date activity; custodian HSBC"},
    {"metric": "GLDM ounces in trust", "period": "2026-08-21 to 2026-08-26", "current": "7108957.70 oz", "previous": "6954661.44 oz", "change": "+154169.82 oz from 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-26", "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "official product and historical archive; custodian JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A."},
    {"metric": "SLV ounces in trust", "period": "2026-08-26 trade date", "current": "493923098.00 oz", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "iShares trade-date field; custodian JPMorgan London Branch"},
    {"metric": "SLV bar-list total", "period": "2026-08-26 accounting date", "current": "493923791.90 oz", "previous": null, "change": "+693.90 oz versus SLV trade-date field; date-definition difference", "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "JPMorgan London and New York bar list"},
    {"metric": "IAU ounces in trust", "period": "2026-08-26 trade date", "current": "14805288.44 oz", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "official iShares trade-date field"},
    {"metric": "FINRA Reg SHO short volume / total volume", "period": "2026-08-26", "current": "GLD 1593276.24/3339572.00; GLDM 2356799.95/3024286.20; IAU 710263.44/1602053.53; SLV 2743595.27/4955960.04 shares", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "shares", "definition": "securities short-volume flow, not short interest or metal inventory"},
    {"metric": "IBorrowDesk GLD", "period": "updated 2026-08-27 04:42 Beijing time", "current": "borrow fee 0.82%; shares available 6900000", "previous": "page marks +0.4 percentage points and -1500000 versus prior daily close", "change": "page annotation only", "unit": "percent and shares", "definition": "public securities-borrow pressure transcription"},
    {"metric": "IBorrowDesk SLV", "period": "updated 2026-08-27 04:42 Beijing time", "current": "borrow fee 0.43%; shares available 10000000", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "percent and shares", "definition": "public securities-borrow pressure transcription"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "ETF share and custody changes -> product-level metal encumbrance observation; securities short volume and borrow conditions -> securities-market pressure observation",
  "market_checks": ["creation and redemption baskets", "ETF premium or discount to NAV", "continuous borrow-fee series", "short interest and SEC FTD", "whether ETF custody changes entered metal prices: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["opposite flows persist in the next product-level observations", "GLD and GLDM changes reflect product substitution rather than net metal demand", "securities indicators reverse without a corresponding custody change"]
}

6. SGE 黄金租借参考费率：一年期加权均值升至 0.24%

• 数据周：2026 年 8 月 17—21 日；发布日期：2026 年 8 月 24 日（北京时间；UTC 2026 年 8 月 23 日 16:00 起的发布日窗口）。
• 关键原始数据：1 年期加权平均 0.20%→0.24%，变化+0.04 个百分点；6 个月加权平均 0.20%→0.20%，变化 0。
• 传导链：场内一年期租借参考费率上升→黄金融资或租借条件的观察变量变化→场内流动性压力可能增加。该指标与 LBMA 租赁利率的统计对象不同。
• 方向评分：黄金 +1；白银 0。
• 置信度：68%；影响期限：短至中期。
• 新增程度：中高；本周参考费率在窗口内发布，前周值也有官方文件。
• 行情待验证项：伦敦租赁利率、EFP、现货升贴水、SGE 与境外金价价差及实际借贷成交量，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：6 个月与后续 1 年期费率回落，或费率上升来自样本组成变化而非持续融资压力，方向分数需要下调。

{
  "event_id": "unit-inventory-item-008",
  "event_time": "2026-08-17 to 2026-08-21（数据周；北京时间；UTC 2026-08-16 16:00 to 2026-08-21 16:00）",
  "published_at": "2026-08-24（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-23，官方页面发布日期）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "Shanghai Gold Exchange on-exchange gold lease reference rates",
  "source_url": "https://sge.com.cn/sjzx/hjzjckll",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "gold_lease_reference_rate_update",
  "assets": ["gold"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 1, "silver": 0},
  "confidence": 68,
  "horizon": "short_to_medium_term",
  "novelty": "medium_high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "one-year weighted average on-exchange gold lease reference rate", "period": "2026-08-17 to 2026-08-21 versus 2026-08-10 to 2026-08-14", "current": "0.24%", "previous": "0.20%", "change": "+0.04 percentage points", "unit": "percent", "definition": "SGE reference rate from reported on-exchange lease activity"},
    {"metric": "six-month weighted average on-exchange gold lease reference rate", "period": "same weeks", "current": "0.20%", "previous": "0.20%", "change": "0", "unit": "percent", "definition": "SGE reference rate"},
    {"metric": "one-year arithmetic/high/low", "period": "2026-08-17 to 2026-08-21", "current": "0.26% / 0.30% / 0.21%", "previous": "0.20% / 0.20% / 0.20%", "change": "current-week fields", "unit": "percent", "definition": "SGE published reference-rate fields"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "one-year on-exchange lease reference rate rises -> gold financing or lease-condition observation changes -> possible on-exchange liquidity pressure",
  "market_checks": ["LBMA lease rates", "EFP and spot premium/discount", "SGE versus offshore price relationship", "real lease transaction volume: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["the reference rate falls back", "the change reflects sample composition", "six-month and subsequent one-year rates do not confirm persistence"]
}

7. CME 交割通知：8 月 24 日意图日对应 960 张黄金、20 张白银

• 事件时间：意图日 2026 年 8 月 24 日、交割日 2026 年 8 月 26 日；北京时间口径。CME 文件中的业务日对应 UTC 日期可能提前一天，按意图日和交割日原字段保存。
• 发布与数据截止：8 月 24 日单日 PDF 原表可读取；8 月 25 日黄金 13 张、白银 1 张是 8 月 25 日 MTD 与 8 月 24 日 MTD 的差额，属于推导值；8 月 25、26 单日 PDF 原表缺口已保留。
• 关键原始数据：黄金 960 张、白银 20 张；8 月 25 日 MTD 差额黄金 13 张、白银 1 张；月累计从黄金 19,263→19,276 张、白银 1,647→1,648 张。
• 传导链：交割通知→合约层交付流量→观察注册仓、Eligible 和库间调拨的后续变化。交割通知是流量，库存表是存量，两者单独记录。
• 方向评分：黄金 +1；白银 +1。
• 置信度：83%；影响期限：短期。
• 新增程度：中高；8 月 24 日单日原表与两期 MTD 可核验，部分单日原表缺失。
• 行情待验证项：交割通知对应的库存调拨、EFP、期限结构和交割日价格影响，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：后续库存同步增加、交割通知降至低位，或 8 月 25 日差额被新日报修正，方向分数需要下调。

{
  "event_id": "unit-inventory-item-003",
  "event_time": "2026-08-24 intent date / 2026-08-26 delivery date（北京时间字段；CME业务日）",
  "published_at": "2026-08-25前后（北京时间，8月24日单日报告可读取；MTD截至8月25日另有文件）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "CME Clearing Metals Issues and Stops Report and MTD Report",
  "source_url": "https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.pdf",
  "source_tier": "A-",
  "event_type": "futures_delivery_notice_flow",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 1, "silver": 1},
  "confidence": 83,
  "horizon": "short_term",
  "novelty": "medium_high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "COMEX 100 GOLD delivery notices", "period": "2026-08-24 intent date / 2026-08-26 delivery date", "current": "960 contracts", "previous": "15 contracts on 2026-08-21 intent date", "change": "+945 contracts", "unit": "contracts/notices", "definition": "one contract = 100 troy oz"},
    {"metric": "COMEX 5000 SILVER delivery notices", "period": "2026-08-24 intent date / 2026-08-26 delivery date", "current": "20 contracts", "previous": "0 contracts on 2026-08-21 intent date", "change": "+20 contracts", "unit": "contracts/notices", "definition": "one contract = 5000 troy oz"},
    {"metric": "MTD-derived 2026-08-25 intent-date notices", "period": "2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 business-day MTD difference", "current": "gold 13; silver 1", "previous": "MTD gold 19263 and silver 1647 on 2026-08-24", "change": "MTD gold 19276 and silver 1648 on 2026-08-25", "unit": "contracts/notices", "definition": "derived from MTD; 2026-08-25 single-day report unavailable"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "delivery notices -> contract-level delivery flow -> subsequent observation of registered-stock changes and warehouse transfers",
  "market_checks": ["subsequent COMEX registered and eligible stock", "EFP", "term structure", "delivery-date market response: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["registered stock rises together with delivery notices", "future daily report revises the MTD-derived figure", "delivery flow is offset by new eligible material"]
}

8. GDP 二次估计：实际增速维持 1.5%，价格指标较初值上修

• 发布时间：2026 年 8 月 26 日 20:30（北京时间；UTC 2026 年 8 月 26 日 12:30）。数据期：2026 年第二季度（4—6 月）。
• 关键原始数据：实际 GDP+1.5%，初值+1.5%，变化 0；实际私人国内购买者最终销售+4.2%，较初值+0.3 个百分点；核心 PCE 平减指数+3.6%，较初值+0.2 个百分点。
• 传导链：实际增长估计持平、价格平减指标上修→增长与通胀的组合影响利率路径→黄金与白银机会成本和避险需求出现相反约束。数据本身给出的是估计修订，不提供金银价格方向。
• 方向评分：黄金 0；白银 0。
• 置信度：72%；影响期限：短至中期。
• 新增程度：高；二次估计在窗口内发布。
• 行情待验证项：实际收益率、美元、联储政策路径、金银价格及期权波动率，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：第三次估计显著修正实际增长或价格平减指标，当前组合判断需要更新。

{
  "event_id": "unit-macro-item-002",
  "event_time": "2026-08-26 20:30（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-26 12:30；数据期2026年Q2）",
  "published_at": "2026-08-26 20:30（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-26 12:30）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis",
  "source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits-2nd-quarter-2026",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "gdp_second_estimate",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 0, "silver": 0},
  "confidence": 72,
  "horizon": "short_to_medium_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "real GDP annualized quarter over quarter", "period": "2026-Q2", "current": "+1.5%", "previous": "+1.5% advance estimate", "change": "0 percentage points", "unit": "percent annual rate", "definition": "BEA second estimate"},
    {"metric": "real final sales to private domestic purchasers", "period": "2026-Q2", "current": "+4.2%", "previous": "advance estimate 0.3 percentage points lower", "change": "+0.3 percentage points versus advance estimate", "unit": "percent annual rate", "definition": "BEA measure"},
    {"metric": "core PCE price index in GDP accounts", "period": "2026-Q2", "current": "+3.6%", "previous": "advance estimate 0.2 percentage points lower", "change": "+0.2 percentage points versus advance estimate", "unit": "percent annual rate", "definition": "GDP price index measure"},
    {"metric": "PCE price index in GDP accounts", "period": "2026-Q2", "current": "+5.3%", "previous": "advance estimate 0.2 percentage points lower", "change": "+0.2 percentage points", "unit": "percent annual rate", "definition": "GDP price index measure"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "GDP growth estimate holds while price indexes revise higher -> rate-path uncertainty remains two-sided -> gold and silver macro opportunity-cost and demand signals offset",
  "market_checks": ["Treasury real yields", "dollar", "Fed policy expectations", "gold and silver futures and options: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["third GDP estimate materially revises growth or price indexes", "subsequent inflation and labor data dominate the policy reaction"]
}

9. OFAC 把伊朗黄金行业列入行业制裁认定

• 生效与发布时间：2026 年 8 月 24 日；OFAC 文件签署时间为北京时间 8 月 24 日 21:25:33（UTC 2026 年 8 月 24 日 13:25:33）。
• 关键原始数据：五个行业中包含黄金；同日财政部新闻稿还说明涉及近 60 个实体、个人和船舶，但事件核心是行业制裁认定。
• 传导链：伊朗黄金行业被纳入 EO 13902 行业制裁→相关主体的美国金融体系与跨境服务风险上升→区域黄金采购、结算与运输路径可能重构。该链条对白银的直接证据较弱。
• 方向评分：黄金 +1；白银 0。
• 置信度：黄金 62%、白银 40%；影响期限：中期。
• 新增程度：高；行业认定在窗口内生效。
• 行情待验证项：伊朗相关黄金流量、区域溢价、运输与结算变化、金银价格反应，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：相关主体对美元和美国金融服务依赖有限，或取得豁免与替代通道，实际供给和溢价影响会减弱。

{
  "event_id": "unit-macro-item-004",
  "event_time": "2026-08-24 21:25:33（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-24 13:25:33，OFAC文件签署时间）",
  "published_at": "2026-08-24（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-24，财政部/OFAC发布日）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury and OFAC",
  "source_url": "https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/936781/download?inline",
  "source_tier": "A",
  "event_type": "iran_gold_sector_sanctions_determination",
  "assets": ["gold", "silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 1, "silver": 0},
  "confidence": 62,
  "horizon": "medium_term",
  "novelty": "high",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "sectors named in OFAC determination", "period": "effective 2026-08-24", "current": "five sectors: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, shipping", "previous": null, "change": "new determination in the captured window", "unit": "sectors", "definition": "EO 13902 section 1(a)(i) sector determination"},
    {"metric": "OFAC document signature time", "period": "2026-08-24", "current": "09:25:33 -04:00", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "timestamp", "definition": "document signature time"},
    {"metric": "entities, persons and vessels in Treasury release", "period": "2026-08-24", "current": "nearly 60", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "entities/persons/vessels", "definition": "Treasury press-release count; secondary to the gold-sector determination"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "Iran gold sector designation -> higher sanctions and cross-border-finance risk for relevant actors -> regional gold settlement, procurement and transport routes may change",
  "market_checks": ["regional gold premiums", "Iran-linked bullion flows", "transport and settlement data", "gold and silver prices: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["relevant actors have limited dependence on US financial services", "licenses or alternative channels neutralize the operational effect", "no observable change in regional bullion flows"]
}

10. 印度 IIBX 白银进口恢复：约 90 吨，但官方原表尚未取得

• 报道时间：2026 年 8 月 25 日 01:52（北京时间；UTC 2026 年 8 月 24 日 17:52）。数据覆盖：2026 年 8 月截至报道时。
• 关键原始数据：IIBX 白银进口约 90 吨、约 290 万盎司；此前连续 6 个月为 0 笔 IIBX 白银进口。90 吨与 290 万盎司是报道同列的机构口径，不能替代 IIBX 官方逐笔表。
• 传导链：许可证要求与发货延迟→IIBX 白银进口中断并推高印度实物溢价→新许可证推动约 90 吨到货→印度实物紧张可能缓解。后续到货速度决定这条链能否延续。
• 方向评分：黄金 0；白银 -1。
• 置信度：55%；影响期限：短期。
• 新增程度：中；事件属于窗口内媒体对 Heraeus 分析师更新的转述。
• 行情待验证项：IIBX 官方进口量、印度国内溢价、后续许可证数量、印度与境外价差，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：新许可证发放放缓、后续到货低于约 90 吨的节奏，或节日与婚礼季补库重新推高需求，白银供给缓解方向需要下调。

{
  "event_id": "unit-supply-item-004",
  "event_time": "2026-08-25 01:52（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-24 17:52；报道时间，数据覆盖2026年8月截至报道时）",
  "published_at": "2026-08-25 01:52（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-24 17:52）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "Kitco News relaying a Heraeus analyst update",
  "source_url": "https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-24/gold-rallies-after-treasury-buyback-plan-lowers-long-yields-india-silver",
  "source_tier": "B",
  "event_type": "india_silver_import_rebound",
  "assets": ["silver"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 0, "silver": -1},
  "confidence": 55,
  "horizon": "short_term",
  "novelty": "medium",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "IIBX silver imports", "period": "August 2026 through report time", "current": "about 90 tonnes (about 2.9 million oz)", "previous": "no silver imports through IIBX for six consecutive months", "change": "rebound from reported zero-import period", "unit": "tonnes and troy oz", "definition": "Heraeus analyst update as relayed by Kitco; IIBX official raw table unavailable"},
    {"metric": "India silver imports", "period": "H1 2026 and full-year 2025", "current": "about 57 million oz in H1 2026; about 212 million oz in 2025", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "Heraeus estimates relayed by Kitco"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "import licensing and shipment delays -> IIBX interruption and local tightness -> new arrivals of about 90 tonnes -> possible easing of Indian physical tightness",
  "market_checks": ["IIBX official import records", "Indian physical premium", "new license issuance", "India-offshore price relationship: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["license issuance slows", "subsequent arrivals fall below the reported pace", "festival and wedding-season restocking overwhelms new supply"]
}

11. Terronera 复产：社区封锁解除，产量影响仍需公司确认

• 事件时间：2026 年 8 月 24 日复产（北京时间；UTC 2026 年 8 月 23 日 23:00 起的事件窗口）。公告发布时间为北京时间 8 月 24 日 07:00，早于本期起点；因此该项属于“窗口内事件、窗口外一小时公告”的边界项。
• 关键原始数据：封锁约 12 天；年产能约 400 万盎司银、3.8 万盎司金；Q2 可售银 582,043 盎司；按铭牌产能粗算 12 天约 13 万盎司，公司的已确认值仍为空。
• 传导链：社区封锁→矿山停产→封锁解除→运营恢复→未来银精矿与金属供给恢复。事件方向偏向供给恢复，停产损失的实际数量和全年指引变化需要公司后续披露。
• 方向评分：黄金 0；白银 -1。
• 置信度：50%；影响期限：短期。
• 新增程度：中；事件在窗口内，公告发布时间略早于窗口起点。
• 行情待验证项：Terronera 后续处理量、发运量、公司指引、白银期货和现货供给变量，等待行情系统验证。
• 反证与失效条件：Ejido 纠纷再次封锁、复产爬坡低于计划，或公司下调 2026 年指引，供给恢复方向会失效。

{
  "event_id": "unit-supply-item-001",
  "event_time": "2026-08-24（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-23 23:00，Terronera复产事件）",
  "published_at": "2026-08-24 07:00（北京时间；UTC 2026-08-23 23:00，公告发布时间，早于窗口起点1小时）",
  "first_seen_at": null,
  "source_name": "Endeavour Silver",
  "source_url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/23/3349429/0/en/endeavour-silver-announces-removal-of-blockade-at-its-terronera-mine.html",
  "source_tier": "A-（公司公告经GlobeNewswire发布；BNAmericas交叉）",
  "event_type": "mine_restart_after_blockade",
  "assets": ["silver", "gold"],
  "direction_score": {"gold": 0, "silver": -1},
  "confidence": 50,
  "horizon": "short_term",
  "novelty": "medium",
  "raw_facts": [
    {"metric": "Terronera blockade", "period": "2026-08-12 to 2026-08-24", "current": "blockade removed and operations resumed on 2026-08-24", "previous": "operations stopped during the blockade", "change": "about 12-day interruption ended", "unit": "days and event status", "definition": "company announcement, independently reported by BNAmericas"},
    {"metric": "Terronera annual nameplate capacity", "period": "company operating information", "current": "about 4.0 million oz silver and 38000 oz gold per year", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "troy oz per year", "definition": "capacity reference; not realized production"},
    {"metric": "arithmetic nameplate estimate", "period": "about 12 days", "current": "about 130000 oz silver", "previous": null, "change": null, "unit": "troy oz", "definition": "author arithmetic from 4.0 million oz annual nameplate capacity; company did not confirm loss"}
  ],
  "transmission_chain": "community blockade -> mine stoppage -> blockade removal -> operations restart -> future silver and gold concentrate supply resumes",
  "market_checks": ["Terronera throughput and shipments", "company guidance", "silver supply and futures variables: waiting for market-system validation"],
  "invalidation_conditions": ["Ejido dispute causes another stoppage", "restart ramp is below plan", "company lowers 2026 guidance"]
}

口径边界与本轮缺口

• 自由库存边界。 CME Registered、Pledged、Eligible、Combined；SHFE 标准仓单；SHFE 库存周报中的已注册货物与可用库容；ETF 托管量；SGE 交收流量；CME 交割通知分别代表不同层次。库存表、仓单、交割通知与 ETF 托管量在本文中各自保留，未做跨体系相加。CME Combined 只表示原表的合并库存字段，SHFE 日报“期货”只表示已经制成标准仓单的货物数量。
• SGE 交收流量。 8 月 24—26 日 Au(T+D)/Ag(T+D)每日交收方向和数量已取得，但它记录延期交收申报配对流量，本文没有把它改写成 SGE 金库库存。
• CFTC 持仓。 窗口内没有新的 COT 发布；最新可用的官方Disaggregated Futures-Only报告周截止 2026 年 8 月 18 日，黄金未平仓合约 406,260 张、Managed Money 多/空 154,595/12,947 张；白银未平仓合约 120,117 张、Managed Money 多/空 19,533/7,838 张。2026 年 8 月 11 日前值未取得，所以本文不计算周环比，也不把这组窗口外快照列作新增事件。35
• 全球 ETF/ETP 汇总缺口。 本轮取得 GLD、GLDM、SLV、IAU 的产品级数据和 SLV 托管条清单；全球金银 ETF/ETP 同口径总持仓、资金流与托管地点总表仍未取得。WGC 全球黄金 ETF 月度数据与 LBMA 月度金库数据在窗口内没有新发布，产品级数字也没有外推为全球流量。
• 跨市场流动性缺口。 本轮取得 SGE 一年期黄金租借参考费率；LBMA 租赁利率、EFP、现货升贴水、注销仓单、进口窗口和同一时点内外盘比价仍缺少可靠原始值。以上字段统一为等待行情系统验证。
• 证券压力缺口。 FINRA 卖空成交量和 IBorrowDesk 证券借券页面已更新；SEC 窗口内新 FTD 批次未取得。FINRA 与 IBorrowDesk 指标属于证券借贷或卖空压力，不能替代空头余额、失败交割、金属租赁利率、实物仓单或自由库存。
• 其他供需缺口。 IIBX 白银官方原表、中国 7 月白银进出口分项、窗口内白银回收/再生银一手数据以及美国铸币局 8 月银币销量仍未取得。印度 90 吨采用 Heraeus 经 Kitco 转述的 B 级口径；Terronera 约 13 万盎司为算术估计，公司未确认。