9月10日15时：全国基差多数为负，华南与华北现货分化

[ { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260910-louis-dreyfus-southchina-basis-down", "title": "9 月 10 日路易达孚华南油厂下调豆粕基差出厂价", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T03:36:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-10", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-10 11:36", "market": "华南", "plant": "路易达孚（华南）油厂", "status": "下调豆粕基差出厂价", "basis_quotes_cny_per_ton": [ { "delivery_period": "9 月 15 日前现货", "basis": "M2701-140", "note": "严格限量" }, { "delivery_period": "9 月整月", "basis": "M2701-80" }, { "delivery_period": "10 月至次年 1 月", "basis": "M2701+20" }, { "delivery_period": "2027 年 2 至 3 月", "basis": "M2701+30" } ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "路易达孚华南油厂下调豆粕基差出厂价，9 月 15 日前近月现货基差大幅贴水至 M2701-140 元/吨，9 月整月贴水维持在-80 元/吨", "华南主要外资油厂主动降基差促销近月货源，表明港口及油厂端现货去库压力增大，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 构成压制" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "路易达孚华南油厂取消现货贴水或大幅上调基差报价", "华南下游饲料企业阶段性集中提货缓解油厂胀库风险" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/6B7D3F055E090C8B_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/6B7D3F055E090C8B_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/6B7D3F055E090C8B_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/6B7D3F055E090C8B_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260910-shanghai-dongchen-spot-firm", "title": "9 月 10 日上海东辰豆粕出厂价坚挺于 3290 至 3330 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T03:49:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-10", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-10 11:49", "region": "上海", "plant": "上海东辰油厂", "status": "报价坚挺", "quotes_cny_per_ton": [ { "specification": "43±0.5%蛋白 70 公斤定量包", "price_range": "3320~3290" }, { "specification": "50 公斤定量包", "price_range": "3330~3300" } ], "delivery_period": "2026 年 9 月 14 日至 29 日均衡提货", "terms": "报价当日 14:50 前有效，限量，两个工作日内不低于 5%定金、带款提货" }, "transmission_chain": [ "华东上海东辰油厂 43%豆粕定量包出厂报价坚挺在 3290~3330 元/吨，锁定 9 月中下旬均衡提货并要求预付定金", "区域主流油厂报价与提货政策持稳，现货交投情绪平稳，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 记录为中性信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "上海东辰油厂下调定量包出厂价或放宽提货要求", "华东沿海油厂全面下调报价打破区域持稳格局" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/CF6B34CEB995C349_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/CF6B34CEB995C349_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/CF6B34CEB995C349_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/CF6B34CEB995C349_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260910-northchina-spot-up", "title": "9 月 10 日华北豆粕现货上涨 10 至 20 元/吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T03:51:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-10", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-10 11:51", "region": "华北", "market_trend": "温和上涨", "quotes_by_plant_cny_per_ton": [ { "plant": "天津九三", "price": 3300, "change": 10 }, { "plant": "北京汇福", "price": 3300, "change": 10 }, { "plant": "黄骅嘉好", "price": 3310, "change": 20 } ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "华北核心油厂 43%豆粕现货价格普遍温和上调 10 至 20 元/吨，天津与北京主流报价重回 3300 元/吨上方，黄骅嘉好升至 3310 元/吨", "华北现货抗跌回暖，区域油厂挺价意愿增强，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 提供微幅偏多支撑" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "华北油厂现货调价回吐涨幅重回 3300 元/吨下方", "大连商品交易所豆粕盘面走弱拖累华北一口价下调" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/EA9DA5834DEC5E87_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/EA9DA5834DEC5E87_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/EA9DA5834DEC5E87_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/EA9DA5834DEC5E87_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260910-sichuan-spot-stable", "title": "9 月 10 日四川市场豆粕现货价格持平于 3420 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T03:55:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-10", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-10 11:55", "region": "四川", "spot_price_cny_per_ton": 3420, "price_change": "较前一交易日持平", "quotes_by_plant_cny_per_ton": [ { "plant": "成都中储粮", "price": 3420 }, { "plant": "广汉益海", "price": 3420 }, { "plant": "彭山中粮", "price": 3420 } ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "四川成都中储粮、广汉益海及彭山中粮 43%豆粕现货报价全部统一在 3420 元/吨，与前一交易日持平", "西南腹地油厂与养殖企业供需处于平稳过渡状态，现货指引平稳，对 SOYMEAL_ETF 记录为中性信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "四川主要油厂出现显著涨跌调价动作", "西南内陆饲料养殖端需求剧变引发采购价格调整" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/59D08473DA3D6F71_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/59D08473DA3D6F71_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/59D08473DA3D6F71_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/59D08473DA3D6F71_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260910-chongqing-spot-stable", "title": "9 月 10 日重庆豆粕现货价格持平于 3340 至 3370 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T03:55:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-10", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-10 11:55", "region": "重庆", "price_change": "较前一交易日保持不变", "quotes_by_plant_cny_per_ton": [ { "plant": "江津益海", "price": 3370 }, { "plant": "重庆一德", "price": 3340 } ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "重庆主流压榨企业 43%豆粕现货报价 3340~3370 元/吨，江津益海与重庆一德价格维持不变", "长江沿江市场现货走势平稳，缺乏单边方向指引，对 SOYMEAL_ETF 记录为中性信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "长江水运物流及到港大豆节奏扰动引发重庆油厂调价", "重庆油厂出厂价大幅偏离当前价格区间" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/EFB76ABE999B1A19_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/EFB76ABE999B1A19_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/EFB76ABE999B1A19_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/EFB76ABE999B1A19_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260910-national-basis-distribution", "title": "9 月 10 日全国豆粕基差多数为负，日照防城港最低", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T03:57:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 86, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-10", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-10 11:57", "market": "全国主要市场", "summary": "全国主要市场豆粕基差价格汇总显示，多数地区基差为负值", "basis_extremes_cny_per_ton": { "lowest_areas": [ { "market": "山东日照", "basis": -150 }, { "market": "广西防城港", "basis": -150 } ], "neutral_areas": [ { "market": "云南昆明", "basis": 0 }, { "market": "陕西西安", "basis": 0 } ], "highest_area": { "market": "吉林长春", "basis": 50 } } }, "transmission_chain": [ "全国主要市场豆粕基差普遍处于负值贴水区间，山东日照与广西防城港最低达-150 元/吨，仅内陆吉林长春维持 50 元/吨升水", "沿海核心港口深负基差反映高开机率下近月现货供给压力依然显著，对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成轻度压制" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "沿海主要港口油厂基差全面修复至平水或正升水", "全国油厂豆粕库存持续去化改善基差贴水结构" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/AAF0D9EC456AAE97_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/AAF0D9EC456AAE97_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/AAF0D9EC456AAE97_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091011/AAF0D9EC456AAE97_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260910-fangchenggang-jiusan-basis-up", "title": "9 月 10 日防城港九三油厂豆粕出厂基差涨 10 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T06:55:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 85, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-10", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:55", "market": "广西防城港", "plant": "防城港九三油厂", "price_change": "出厂基差上涨 10 元/吨", "forward_quote": "2026 年 9 月 M2701-110 限量" }, "transmission_chain": [ "防城港九三油厂 9 月 10 日下午上调豆粕出厂基差 10 元/吨，9 月期提货报价上移至 M2701-110 元/吨并限量供应", "华南主要油厂尾盘挺价收窄贴水，局部提货紧张态势显现，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 产生微幅偏多提振" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "防城港九三油厂取消限量或重新下调出厂基差", "广西主要油厂大面积降价倾销豆粕现货" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091014/BE1C4B1215907303_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091014/BE1C4B1215907303_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091014/BE1C4B1215907303_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091014/BE1C4B1215907303_abc.html))", "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/doupo/m/26091014/AD20A1D4124DCF25_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/doupo/m/26091014/AD20A1D4124DCF25_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/doupo/m/26091014/AD20A1D4124DCF25_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/doupo/m/26091014/AD20A1D4124DCF25_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]