9月10日10时：油厂高开机压制，华南基差持稳

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["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090918/880ADCA19CEBAAB6_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090918/880ADCA19CEBAAB6_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090918/880ADCA19CEBAAB6_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090918/880ADCA19CEBAAB6_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-eastchina-crush-rate", "title": "9 月 9 日华东油厂开工率 67.01%，成交 1.5 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T09:48:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 85, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-09", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 17:48", "region": "华东", "crush_rate": "67.01%", "daily_crush_volume_tons": 72300, "meal_sales_volume_tons": 15000, "sales_volume_change_tons": -1500, "operational_status": "张家港东海、泰州汇福等多厂开机，南京邦基、舟山中海等停机" }, "transmission_chain": [ "华东油厂开工率达 67.01%，单日开机量 7.23 万吨，豆粕成交量较上一交易日减少 1500 吨至 1.5 万吨", "区域压榨开工偏高且成交减量，现货供应充裕，对 SOYMEAL_ETF 构成轻度压制" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "华东主要油厂大面积停机检修导致开工率回落至 60%下方", "下游饲料养殖企业集中补库提货扭转成交清淡局面" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/86AEC359B23BEB2F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/86AEC359B23BEB2F_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/86AEC359B23BEB2F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/86AEC359B23BEB2F_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-guangdong-crush-sales", "title": "9 月 9 日广东油厂开机率 60.26%，成交 3.9 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T09:46:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 85, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-09", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 17:46", "region": "广东", "crush_rate": "60.26%", "meal_total_sales_tons": 39000, "spot_trade_price_cny_per_ton": 3300, "forward_basis": "11-1 月基差为 01-20/+0 元/吨", "operational_status": "中储、嘉吉、阳江等多厂开机，新沙、产业园等停机" }, "transmission_chain": [ "广东油厂开机率维持在 60.26%，单日总成交 3.9 万吨，现货成交价 3300 元/吨，远月基差贴水", "华南现货及远月基差承压，反映港口与油厂供应充裕，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成轻度偏空信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "广东油厂因胀库或检修进一步扩大停机范围", "华南港口现货成交大幅溢价并修复远月基差" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/627DC82301C3B224_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/627DC82301C3B224_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/627DC82301C3B224_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/627DC82301C3B224_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-northeast-crush-sales", "title": "9 月 9 日东北油厂开机率 64.27%，日压榨 3.04 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T09:31:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 85, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-09", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 17:31", "region": "东北", "crush_rate": "64.27%", "daily_crush_volume_tons": 30400, "meal_sales_volume_tons": 1000, "operational_status": "营口、盘锦、沈阳、长春、丹东及大连中粮等开机，大连工厂单线开机" }, "transmission_chain": [ "东北油厂开工率维持 64.27%，日压榨量达 3.04 万吨，但油厂单日豆粕成交仅 1000 吨", "高开机与低成交形成鲜明反差，现货产出持续转化为厂内库存，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成轻度偏空指引" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "东北油厂因大豆断档或检修主动调减开机率", "北方养殖端备货需求快速释放带动成交回升" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/0A297A094AED938F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/0A297A094AED938F_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/0A297A094AED938F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/0A297A094AED938F_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-shandong-crush-sales", "title": "9 月 9 日山东油厂开机率 69.76%，成交 2.75 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T09:30:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 85, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-09", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 17:30", "region": "山东", "crush_rate": "69.76%", "meal_sales_total_tons": 27500, "meal_spot_trade_price_cny_per_ton": 3290, "operational_status": "日照中纺、龙口中粮停机，部分工厂降产或单线运行，多数工厂正常双线开机" }, "transmission_chain": [ "山东油厂开机率保持在 69.76%的高位水平，油厂主流成交价 3290 元/吨，总成交量 2.75 万吨", "核心产区开工负荷平稳释放，现货供应充裕限制基差反弹空间，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成轻度偏空信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "山东主要港口油厂出现大面积限产或停机检修", "华北及山东现货成交大幅放量拉动价格上行" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/F4FAD51FF5A64002_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/F4FAD51FF5A64002_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/F4FAD51FF5A64002_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/F4FAD51FF5A64002_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-guangxi-crush-sales", "title": "9 月 9 日广西油厂豆粕现货成交 1.6 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T09:26:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 80, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-09", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 17:26", "region": "广西", "meal_spot_trade_volume_tons": 16000 }, "transmission_chain": [ "广西油厂单日豆粕现货成交 1.6 万吨，买卖双方交投平稳", "成交规模处于常规区间且缺乏同日价格变动对比，当前对 SOYMEAL_ETF 记录为中性信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "广西油厂公布完整开机率及成交均价显著偏离前期基准", "西南及华南提货发生阶段性物流受阻" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/CCD38C567001F900_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/CCD38C567001F900_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/CCD38C567001F900_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090917/CCD38C567001F900_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260910-cargill-southchina-basis", "title": "9 月 10 日嘉吉华南 9 月 20 日前基差 01-100 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T02:03:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 86, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-10", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-10 10:03", "market": "华南", "plant": "嘉吉（华南）油厂", "status": "出厂价持稳", "basis_quotes_cny_per_ton": [ { "delivery_period": "9 月 20 日前", "basis": "01-100" }, { "delivery_period": "9 月整月", "basis": "01-80" }, { "delivery_period": "10 月", "basis": "01-40" }, { "delivery_period": "10-11 月", "basis": "01-20" }, { "delivery_period": "11-1 月", "basis": "01+10" }, { "delivery_period": "12-1 月", "basis": "01+20" } ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "嘉吉华南油厂 9 月 20 日前提货基差报 01-100 元/吨，9 月整月报 01-80 元/吨，11-1 月报 01+10 元/吨，报价整体持稳", "近月深贴水与远月微幅升水结构维持稳定，出厂价未现新增涨跌变动，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 记录为中性基差信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "嘉吉华南油厂上调或下调分期基差报价", "华南港口现货提货进度剧烈变动打破贴水结构" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091010/41FA0E8A1C43946F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091010/41FA0E8A1C43946F_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091010/41FA0E8A1C43946F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091010/41FA0E8A1C43946F_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" } ]