9月8日14时:西南现货上调,全国基差分化

9月8日14时:西南现货上调,全国基差分化

截至北京时间9月8日14:00,新增青岛远期合同、四川与重庆现货、上海报价及全国豆粕01合约基差五组可核验事件。

[ { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260908-qingdao-october-contract-stable", "title": "青岛渤海 10 月豆粕合同报价 3330 元持平", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T02:24:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 86, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网(Mysteel)", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-08", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-08 10:24", "market": "青岛", "plant": "青岛渤海油厂", "protein": "43%", "spot_status": "现货已售完", "delivery_period_beijing": "2026-10-01 至 2026-10-31", "contract_price_cny_per_ton": 3330, "change_cny_per_ton": 0, "protein_46_premium_cny_per_ton": 150 }, "transmission_chain": [ "青岛渤海 43%豆粕现货已售完,10 月 1 日至 31 日提货合同报价为 3330 元/吨且较前值持平", "现货可售量收紧但远期合同价格未上调,短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 同时形成供应偏紧与价格未强化的中性信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "青岛渤海现货恢复供应或 10 月合同报价被下调", "后续区域基差和成交数据否定现货供应偏紧信号" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090810/2126EB272351CE68_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090810/2126EB272351CE68_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090810/2126EB272351CE68_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090810/2126EB272351CE68_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260908-sichuan-spot-up", "title": "四川三家 43%豆粕报价均涨 20 元至 3430 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T03:56:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 2, "confidence": 89, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网(Mysteel)", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-08", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-08 11:56", "market": "四川", "protein": "43%", "quotes": [ {"plants": ["成都中储粮", "广汉益海", "彭山中粮"], "price_cny_per_ton": 3430, "change_cny_per_ton": 20} ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "四川三家 43%豆粕现货报价均为 3430 元/吨,较前值均上涨 20 元/吨", "区域报价同步上调提高西南现货定价支撑,短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成偏多信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "四川报价回落或 20 元涨幅被修正", "西南其他市场报价转弱并覆盖三家同步上调信号" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090811/18E55146CE4DA6DD_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090811/18E55146CE4DA6DD_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090811/18E55146CE4DA6DD_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090811/18E55146CE4DA6DD_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260908-chongqing-spot-up", "title": "重庆两家 43%豆粕报价均涨 20 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T03:57:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 2, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网(Mysteel)", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-08", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-08 11:57", "market": "重庆", "protein": "43%", "quotes": [ {"plant": "江津益海", "price_cny_per_ton": 3380, "change_cny_per_ton": 20}, {"plant": "重庆一德", "price_cny_per_ton": 3350, "change_cny_per_ton": 20} ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "重庆江津益海报价 3380 元/吨、重庆一德报价 3350 元/吨,较前值均上涨 20 元/吨", "重庆两家报价同步上行强化西南现货支撑,短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成偏多信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "重庆两家报价回落或涨幅被修正", "四川及其他西南市场现货转弱并覆盖重庆报价上行信号" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090811/3E9B27A4C5C658AE_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090811/3E9B27A4C5C658AE_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090811/3E9B27A4C5C658AE_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090811/3E9B27A4C5C658AE_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260908-shanghai-spot-firm", "title": "上海东辰 43%豆粕报价区间 3290 至 3320 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T04:00:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 84, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网(Mysteel)", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-08", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-08 12:00", "market": "上海", "plant": "上海东辰油厂", "protein": "43%±0.5%", "package_quotes_cny_per_ton": { "70kg": {"high": 3320, "low": 3290}, "50kg": {"high": 3330, "low": 3300} }, "delivery_period_beijing": "2026-09-09 至 2026-09-23", "quote_status": "随盘坚挺" }, "transmission_chain": [ "上海东辰 43%±0.5%蛋白 70 公斤包报价 3320 至 3290 元/吨,50 公斤包报价 3330 至 3300 元/吨,提货期为 9 月 9 日至 23 日", "报价随盘坚挺显示华东现货暂有支撑,短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成轻度偏多信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "上海东辰报价转弱或提货期价格下调", "华东多数油厂报价同步下行并覆盖单厂坚挺信号" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090812/E770461E9433BFE4_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090812/E770461E9433BFE4_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090812/E770461E9433BFE4_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090812/E770461E9433BFE4_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260908-national-basis-distribution", "title": "全国豆粕 01 合约基差长春 30 成都 10 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T04:18:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 76, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网(Mysteel)", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-08", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-08 12:18", "basis_contract": "豆粕 01 合约", "basis_cny_per_ton": { "长春": 30, "成都": 10, "西安": "持平", "广西防城港": -170, "山东日照": -160, "江苏南通": -150 }, "coverage_note": "AI 摘要公开列示的点位,完整区域明细需登录", "previous_period_comparison": "来源摘要未提供上述点位的逐项前值" }, "transmission_chain": [ "全国主要市场豆粕基差以 01 合约计价,公开摘要列示长春 30 元/吨、成都 10 元/吨、西安持平,广西防城港最低为-170 元/吨、山东日照-160 元/吨、江苏南通-150 元/吨", "基差在区域间分化且沿海点位为负,现货对远月合约的支撑不均,短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成轻度偏空信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续全国基差转为普遍上行或沿海负基差明显收窄", "现货成交、库存或区域报价出现足以覆盖基差偏弱信号的变化" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090812/07D26EF533DF81E2_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090812/07D26EF533DF81E2_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090812/07D26EF533DF81E2_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090812/07D26EF533DF81E2_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" } ]

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