9月9日10时：区域供给偏高，现货涨跌分化

[ { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260908-national-crush-sales", "title": "9 月 8 日全国豆粕成交 13.11 万吨，开机率 62.44%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T10:35:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 82, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-08", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-08 18:35", "national_soymeal_sales_tons": 131100, "sales_change_tons": 30400, "crush_rate_percent": 62.44, "market_note": "国内豆粕现货价格稳中上涨，天津、山东等地上涨 10 元/吨" }, "transmission_chain": [ "9 月 8 日全国主要油厂豆粕成交 13.11 万吨，较前一日增加 3.04 万吨，油厂开机率为 62.44%", "成交回升提供需求支撑，但较高开机率同时意味着豆粕供应仍在释放，供需信号相互抵消，对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成中性影响" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "全国成交或开机率统计被修正", "后续全国库存、提货或区域成交数据显示供需方向明显单边化" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090818/9D65E989A259F2B0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090818/9D65E989A259F2B0_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090818/9D65E989A259F2B0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090818/9D65E989A259F2B0_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-eastchina-crush-rate", "title": "华东油厂开机率 67.01%，开机量 7.23 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T00:43:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 84, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-08", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 08:43", "market": "华东", "crush_rate_percent": 67.01, "crush_volume_tons": 72300, "operating_status": "维持高位", "demand_note": "终端刚需补库" }, "transmission_chain": [ "华东油厂上一交易日开机率为 67.01%，开机量为 7.23 万吨，终端存在刚需补库", "高开机量直接增加区域豆粕供应，补库需求提供部分抵消，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成轻度偏空信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "华东开机率或开机量被修正", "终端补库量持续放大并带动库存下降，覆盖高开机率的供应压力" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/CD7C9D72A9CD6280_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/CD7C9D72A9CD6280_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/CD7C9D72A9CD6280_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/CD7C9D72A9CD6280_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-guangdong-crush-sales", "title": "广东豆粕成交 4.55 万吨，部分工厂因库存压力停机", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T00:45:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 80, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-08", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 08:45", "market": "广东", "dongguan_spot_range_cny_per_ton": [3270, 3280], "zhanjiang_spot_range_cny_per_ton": [3280, 3300], "sales_tons": 45500, "plant_status": "部分工厂因库存压力停机" }, "transmission_chain": [ "广东东莞 43%豆粕现货为 3270 至 3280 元/吨，湛江为 3280 至 3300 元/吨，油厂成交 4.55 万吨", "成交量较高但部分工厂因库存压力停机，库存压力说明供应消化仍有阻力，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成轻度偏空信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "广东成交或现货区间被修正", "后续提货增加并推动库存下降，停机状态解除" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/03E2C45E792D8587_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/03E2C45E792D8587_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/03E2C45E792D8587_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/03E2C45E792D8587_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-northeast-crush-sales", "title": "东北豆粕成交 9000 吨，开机率 64.27%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T00:40:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 81, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-08", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 08:40", "market": "东北", "sales_tons": 9000, "sales_price_range_cny_per_ton": [3400, 3450], "crush_rate_percent": 64.27 }, "transmission_chain": [ "东北油厂上一交易日成交 9000 吨，成交价为 3400 至 3450 元/吨，开机率为 64.27%", "成交和开机率同时处于可量化状态，但来源未给出相邻期间的变化值，当前对 SOYMEAL_ETF 只形成中性供需信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "东北成交、成交价区间或开机率被修正", "后续连续数据确认成交显著放大或开机率持续下行" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/58165C0C2FCBF578_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/58165C0C2FCBF578_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/58165C0C2FCBF578_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/58165C0C2FCBF578_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-lianghu-crush-sales", "title": "两湖豆粕成交 1600 吨，开机率升至 81%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T00:41:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 79, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-08", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 08:41", "market": "两湖", "wuhan_spot_range_cny_per_ton": [3330, 3350], "yueyang_spot_range_cny_per_ton": [3310, 3320], "sales_tons": 1600, "crush_rate_percent": 81, "crush_rate_comparison": "升至 81%" }, "transmission_chain": [ "武汉豆粕现货为 3330 至 3350 元/吨，岳阳为 3310 至 3320 元/吨，两湖油厂成交 1600 吨，开机率升至 81%", "开机率上升会增加区域供应，而成交量相对有限，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成轻度偏空信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "两湖现货、成交或开机率数字被修正", "成交量明显放大并持续高于供应增量" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/A20C2FD63271A6DF_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/A20C2FD63271A6DF_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/A20C2FD63271A6DF_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/A20C2FD63271A6DF_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-chuan-yu-crush-rate", "title": "川渝豆粕现货 3350 至 3440 元，开机率 41%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T00:54:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 78, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-08", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 08:54", "market": "川渝", "spot_range_cny_per_ton": [3350, 3440], "crush_rate_percent": 41, "price_comparison": "昨日现货价格上调至该区间" }, "transmission_chain": [ "川渝上一交易日豆粕现货价格上调至 3350 至 3440 元/吨，油厂开机率为 41%", "现货价格上调与相对较低的开机率同时出现，区域供应收缩和定价支撑对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成轻度偏多信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "川渝现货区间或开机率被修正", "后续开机率回升且现货价格回落" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/2309AF86194DDF99_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/2309AF86194DDF99_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/2309AF86194DDF99_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090908/2309AF86194DDF99_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-eastchina-spot-mixed", "title": "华东 43%豆粕部分报价下跌 10 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T01:55:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 73, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-09", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 09:55", "market": "华东", "protein": "43%", "quotes": [ {"plant": "泰州汇福", "price_cny_per_ton": 3260, "change_cny_per_ton": 0}, {"plant": "泰兴邦基", "price_cny_per_ton": 3270, "change_cny_per_ton": 0}, {"plant": "舟山中海", "price_cny_per_ton": 3280, "change_cny_per_ton": -10}, {"plant": "宁波金光", "price_cny_per_ton": 3290, "change_cny_per_ton": -10} ], "coverage_note": "公开摘要可见上述点位，芜湖益海摘要中的跌幅被截断" }, "transmission_chain": [ "华东泰州汇福和泰兴邦基 43%豆粕分别报 3260 和 3270 元/吨且持稳，舟山中海 3280 元/吨、宁波金光 3290 元/吨均下跌 10 元", "同一区域出现两家持稳和两家下跌，已见点位整体偏弱，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成轻度偏空信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "公开摘要中的报价或跌幅被修正", "华东多数油厂后续报价回升并覆盖已见点位的下跌" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/05AE9B7D1F253B13_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/05AE9B7D1F253B13_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/05AE9B7D1F253B13_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/05AE9B7D1F253B13_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-northeast-spot-stable", "title": "东北 43%豆粕可见报价全部持稳", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T01:50:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 75, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-09", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 09:50", "market": "东北", "protein": "43%", "quotes": [ {"plant": "营口益海", "price_cny_per_ton": 3410, "change_cny_per_ton": 0}, {"plant": "盘锦汇福", "price_cny_per_ton": 3410, "change_cny_per_ton": 0}, {"plant": "盘锦中储粮大片", "price_cny_per_ton": 3630, "change_cny_per_ton": 0}, {"plant": "大连九三", "price_cny_per_ton": 3400, "change_cny_per_ton": 0}, {"plant": "丹东九三", "price_cny_per_ton": 3370, "change_cny_per_ton": 0}, {"plant": "铁岭九三", "price_cny_per_ton": 3420, "change_cny_per_ton": 0} ], "coverage_note": "公开摘要列示以上六个点位，长春点位未完整显示" }, "transmission_chain": [ "东北营口益海、盘锦汇福、盘锦中储粮大片、大连九三、丹东九三和铁岭九三 43%豆粕报价分别为 3410、3410、3630、3400、3370 和 3420 元/吨，公开摘要列示点位均持稳", "区域现货暂未出现新的涨跌压力，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成中性信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "公开摘要中的报价或持稳状态被修正", "东北其他主要油厂报价出现同向明显变动" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/BB24A45542BE9A69_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/BB24A45542BE9A69_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/BB24A45542BE9A69_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/BB24A45542BE9A69_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-rizhao-spot-down", "title": "日照 43%豆粕多品牌下跌 10 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T01:46:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 72, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-09", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 09:46", "market": "日照及周边", "protein": "43%", "affected_brands": ["日照凌云海", "象明", "嘉吉", "邦基", "博兴香驰", "博兴口福"], "price_range_cny_per_ton": [3250, 3310], "change_cny_per_ton": -10, "additional_quote": {"plant": "日照中纺", "price_cny_per_ton": 3260, "change_cny_per_ton": -10}, "coverage_note": "公开摘要给出品牌范围和跌幅，完整品牌明细需登录" }, "transmission_chain": [ "日照及周边多家 43%豆粕品牌价格下跌 10 元/吨，公开摘要给出的价格区间为 3250 至 3310 元/吨，日照中纺报 3260 元/吨", "多品牌同步下跌说明鲁南沿海现货定价支撑减弱，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成轻度偏空信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "公开摘要中的价格区间或跌幅被修正", "日照及周边后续成交回暖并带动多数品牌价格反弹" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/A63957CED2C1FF00_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/A63957CED2C1FF00_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/A63957CED2C1FF00_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/A63957CED2C1FF00_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260909-beijing-sanhe-spot-up", "title": "北京三河汇福 43%豆粕报价上调 10 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T01:27:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 65, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-09", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-09 09:27", "market": "北京", "plant": "北京三河汇福油厂", "protein": "43%", "change_cny_per_ton": 10, "absolute_price_cny_per_ton": null, "evidence_note": "页面标题写“下调”，公开正文摘要写“上调 10 元/吨”，本事件按正文摘要记录" }, "transmission_chain": [ "北京三河汇福油厂公开正文摘要显示 43%豆粕现货报价上调 10 元/吨，但摘要未公开绝对价格", "单一油厂报价上调提供华北现货支撑，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成轻度偏多信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "页面正文或后续修订确认报价方向为下调", "华北其他油厂报价下行并覆盖单一油厂上调信号" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/940E5BC618D96C87_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/940E5BC618D96C87_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/940E5BC618D96C87_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090909/940E5BC618D96C87_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" } ]