9月11日09时：USDA大额美豆销售，盘前现货偏强整理

[ { "event_id": "usda-us-20260910-soybean-sales-china-unknown", "title": "USDA 公布对华及未知目的地销售 47.85 万吨美豆", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T13:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "美国农业部对外农业局（USDA FAS）", "announcement_id": "FAS-ESR-081-26", "announcement_date": "2026-09-10", "sales_records": [ { "commodity": "Soybeans", "quantity_metric_tons": 272000, "destination": "China", "marketing_year": "2026/2027" }, { "commodity": "Soybeans", "quantity_metric_tons": 206500, "destination": "Unknown destinations", "marketing_year": "2026/2027" } ], "total_volume_metric_tons": 478500 }, "transmission_chain": [ "USDA 民间出口商报告向中国销售 27.2 万吨大豆、向未知目的地销售 20.65 万吨大豆，均在 2026/2027 市场年度交付", "中国买家连续采购美豆新季货源强化新作出口节奏，提升进口大豆到港成本预期，对 SOYMEAL_ETF 构成成本端偏多提振" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续周度出口销售报告中出现该笔订单的大额撤单或洗船", "中美农产品进出口关税或检验政策突发调整阻断贸易流" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-unknown-destinations-40](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-unknown-destinations-40)](https://fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-unknown-destinations-40](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-unknown-destinations-40))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260911-weekly-export-sales-delayed-friday", "title": "USDA 周度出口销售报告顺延至 9 月 11 日晚间发布", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T12:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T15:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "美国农业部对外农业局（USDA FAS）", "report_title": "Weekly Export Sales", "report_id": "weekly-export-sales-303", "scheduled_release_time_et": "September 11, 2026 8:30 AM ET", "scheduled_release_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 20:30", "delay_reason": "受美国劳动节公休日假期影响，出口商报告截止日顺延，报告发布顺延至周五早间" }, "transmission_chain": [ "因劳动节假期顺延，本周 USDA 大豆与豆粕周度出口销售净销售及累计装船数据推迟至美东时间周五早间 08:30（北京时间 20:30）发布", "盘前市场缺乏最新周度出口销售数字指引，宏观与出口验证窗口后移至周五夜盘，对 SOYMEAL_ETF 盘前影响呈现中性" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "USDA 官方提前或进一步推迟周度出口销售发布时点", "系统技术故障导致报告未能如期发布" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/weekly-export-sales-303](https://www.fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/weekly-export-sales-303)](https://fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/weekly-export-sales-303](https://www.fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/weekly-export-sales-303))", "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/data/scheduled-reports](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/scheduled-reports)](https://fas.usda.gov/data/scheduled-reports](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/scheduled-reports))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260911-wasde-release-scheduled", "title": "USDA 定于 9 月 11 日美东正午发布 9 月供需报告", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T16:00:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T16:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "美国农业部世界农业展望委员会（USDA WAOB / OCE）", "report_title": "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)", "scheduled_release_date": "2026-09-11", "scheduled_release_time_et": "12:00 PM ET", "scheduled_release_time_beijing": "2026-09-12 00:00", "file_status": "截至北京时间 9 月 11 日 09:00 报告正文处于待发布状态", "covered_commodities": [ "Soybeans", "Oilseeds", "Coarse grains" ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "USDA 定于 9 月 11 日美东正午 12:00（北京时间 9 月 12 日 00:00）发布 9 月全球农产品供需月报（WASDE）", "市场处于报告出炉前关键观望期，单产调整与美豆期末库存预估重构全球大豆供需预期，盘前资金以避险和防守为主，对 SOYMEAL_ETF 记录为中性信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "USDA 官方更改 9 月 WASDE 发布时间安排", "供需报告因不可抗力暂停发布" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/commodity-markets/wasde-report](https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/commodity-markets/wasde-report)](https://usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/commodity-markets/wasde-report](https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/commodity-markets/wasde-report))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260911-oilseeds-production-release-scheduled", "title": "USDA 定于 9 月 11 日发布全球油籽与农业产量报告", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T16:15:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T16:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "美国农业部对外农业局（USDA FAS）", "reports": [ { "title": "Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade", "report_id": "oilseeds-world-markets-and-trade-67", "scheduled_release_time_et": "September 11, 2026 12:15 PM ET", "scheduled_release_time_beijing": "2026-09-12 00:15" }, { "title": "World Agricultural Production", "report_id": "world-agricultural-production-69", "scheduled_release_time_et": "September 11, 2026 12:15 PM ET", "scheduled_release_time_beijing": "2026-09-12 00:15" } ], "coverage": "全球与主要生产国（含美国、巴西、阿根廷）大豆及油籽种植面积、单产与产量月度官方预估" }, "transmission_chain": [ "USDA FAS 将于美东时间 9 月 11 日 12:15 发布全球油籽贸易与全球农业产量报告，为南美及北半球主产区大豆产量提供官方全口径核验基准", "该批报告在美股及 CBOT 午盘时段释放，亚洲盘前尚无正文数字，对日内开盘 SOYMEAL_ETF 保持中性预期" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "USDA 官方推迟或调整报告发布计划", "南美主产国官方机构提前发布相互矛盾的产量修正" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/oilseeds-world-markets-and-trade-67](https://www.fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/oilseeds-world-markets-and-trade-67)](https://fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/oilseeds-world-markets-and-trade-67](https://www.fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/oilseeds-world-markets-and-trade-67))", "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/world-agricultural-production-69](https://www.fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/world-agricultural-production-69)](https://fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/world-agricultural-production-69](https://www.fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/world-agricultural-production-69))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260910-national-crush-sales", "title": "9 月 10 日全国主要油厂豆粕成交 9.99 万吨开机率 61%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T10:38:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-10", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-10 18:38", "national_sales_volume_wan_tons": 9.99, "sales_volume_change_wan_tons": -3.72, "spot_sales_wan_tons": 7.63, "spot_sales_change_wan_tons": -1.78, "forward_basis_sales_wan_tons": 2.36, "forward_basis_sales_change_wan_tons": -1.94, "national_crush_operating_rate_pct": 61.11, "crush_operating_rate_change_pct": -1.23 }, "transmission_chain": [ "9 月 10 日全国主要油厂豆粕总成交量大幅回落至 9.99 万吨（减少 3.72 万吨），现货与远月基差成交双双缩量，全国开机率微降至 61.11%", "下游饲料养殖企业采买节奏转入观望，油厂端成交走弱压制现货挺价空间，对 SOYMEAL_ETF 构成微幅偏空影响" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "下游养殖企业因双节备货展开大规模现货集中采购", "油厂因大豆断档或环保检修出现大范围非计划停机" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://list1.[m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html](https://list1.m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html](https://list1.m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-north-spot-index", "title": "9 月 11 日北方豆粕现货偏强，京津冀豫普遍上涨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T23:14:48Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "index_date_beijing": "2026-09-11", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 07:14", "regional_prices_cny_per_ton": [ { "region": "河南省", "price": 3340, "change": 10 }, { "region": "北京市", "price": 3300, "change": 10 }, { "region": "天津市", "price": 3300, "change": 10 }, { "region": "河北省", "price": 3310, "change": 20 }, { "region": "辽宁省", "price": 3400, "change": -10 }, { "region": "吉林省", "price": 3450, "change": 0 }, { "region": "陕西省", "price": 3400, "change": 0 } ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "9 月 11 日北方主销区及京津冀豫油厂豆粕现货汇总价集体上调 10 至 20 元/吨，河北达 3310 元/吨，河南达 3340 元/吨，仅辽宁微跌 10 元/吨，吉林与陕西持稳", "华北核心现货报价回暖为华北大区提供坚实底部，短线对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成温和支撑" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "北方主流油厂下调一口价出厂报价回吐涨幅", "大连商品交易所豆粕期货盘面大幅跳水拖累现货跟跌" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://list1.[m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html](https://list1.m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html](https://list1.m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-east-southwest-spot-index", "title": "9 月 11 日华东豆粕互有涨跌，川渝及江西报价持平", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T23:14:48Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "index_date_beijing": "2026-09-11", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 07:14", "regional_prices_cny_per_ton": [ { "region": "上海市", "price": 3290, "change": 10 }, { "region": "浙江省", "price": 3280, "change": -10 }, { "region": "安徽省", "price": 3300, "change": -10 }, { "region": "四川省", "price": 3420, "change": 0 }, { "region": "重庆市", "price": 3350, "change": 0 }, { "region": "江西省", "price": 3310, "change": 0 } ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "9 月 11 日华东上海现货上涨 10 元/吨至 3290 元/吨，浙江与安徽微调 10 元/吨；西南川渝市场四川持平于 3420 元/吨、重庆持平于 3350 元/吨，江西持平于 3310 元/吨", "华东沿海与西南内陆市场呈现涨跌抵消与横盘整理特征，多空信号相互均衡，对 SOYMEAL_ETF 记录为中性" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "长江流域油厂开机出现断崖式调整打破供需稳态", "西南养殖端补栏或去产能加速引发集中调价" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://list1.[m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html](https://list1.m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html](https://list1.m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-south-central-spot-index", "title": "9 月 11 日全国均价持稳，福建涨 30 元广东跌 10 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T23:14:48Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "index_date_beijing": "2026-09-11", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 07:14", "national_average_cny_per_ton": 3329, "national_average_change": 0, "regional_prices_cny_per_ton": [ { "region": "福建省", "price": 3350, "change": 30 }, { "region": "广东省", "price": 3270, "change": -10 }, { "region": "广西壮族自治区", "price": 3250, "change": 0 }, { "region": "湖南省", "price": 3320, "change": 0 }, { "region": "湖北省", "price": 3330, "change": -10 } ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "9 月 11 日全国 43%豆粕均价报 3329 元/吨与前日持平；分省看，福建现货大幅补涨 30 元/吨至 3350 元/吨，广东与湖北小跌 10 元/吨，广西持平于 3250 元/吨，湖南持平于 3320 元/吨", "沿海油厂高库存与区域刚需补库并存，全国价格重心维持窄幅整理，对 SOYMEAL_ETF 记录为中性信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "广东与广西主要沿海油厂降价抛售豆粕现货", "华南主要港口到港大豆检验延迟推升区域缺货溢价" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://list1.[m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html](https://list1.m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html](https://list1.m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-regional-crush-sales", "title": "9 月 11 日广东现货成交增至 3.15 万吨两湖提货增", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T23:14:48Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "data_date_beijing": "2026-09-11", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 07:14", "crush_indicators": [ { "region": "广东省", "item": "压榨厂豆粕现货成交量", "quantity_tons": 31500, "change_tons": 23500 }, { "region": "湖北省与湖南省（两湖）", "item": "压榨厂豆粕昨日提货数量", "quantity_tons": 5300, "change_tons": 300 } ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "广东省油厂豆粕日度现货成交量激增 23500 吨至 31500 吨，两湖地区压榨厂提货量上升至 5300 吨（增加 300 吨）", "华南沿海低价现货吸引下游饲料买盘放量采买，华中内陆提货保持增长，现货流通加速对 SOYMEAL_ETF 产生微幅偏多支撑" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "广东现货成交快速萎缩回落至万吨以下低位", "两湖压榨厂提货节奏大幅放缓" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://list1.[m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html](https://list1.m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html](https://list1.m.mysteel.com/zhishi/xzzcldpjrbj.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]