豆粕ETF结构化事件（2026-09-14 10:00）
覆盖USDA 9月WASDE美豆及全球期末库存上调、周度出口销售报告发布，以及东北、日照、北京现货普遍下调10至20元与各区域油厂开机成交最新数据。
[
{
"event_id": "usda-us-20260911-wasde-supply-revision",
"title": "USDA9月供需报告上调美豆及全球期末库存",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T16:00:00Z",
"event_type": "usda_report",
"asset_keys": [
"SOYMEAL_ETF"
],
"direction_score": -2,
"confidence": 95,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": "USDA 2026年9月WASDE报告显示：2026/27年度美国大豆产量预估维持在42.92亿蒲式耳，单产53.1蒲式耳/英亩不变；期末库存预估由上月5.55亿蒲式耳上调500万蒲至5.60亿蒲式耳。全球大豆2026/27年度产量预估由4.2162亿吨上调至4.2255亿吨，全球大豆期末库存预估由1.2790亿吨上调至1.2855亿吨，主要因阿根廷等产区产量预估上调。",
"transmission_chain": "USDA 9月供需报告上调美豆及全球大豆结转库存 -> 全球大豆供给宽松预期增强 -> CBOT大豆盘面承压下行 -> 压制国内豆粕及豆粕ETF估值中枢。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若后续美豆收割期出现严重早霜灾害导致实际单产大幅下调，或南美播种期遭遇拉尼娜干旱，供给宽松预期将被打破。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0926.txt"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "usda-us-20260911-weekly-export-sales-published",
"title": "USDA发布2026年9月11日周度出口销售报告",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T12:30:00Z",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"asset_keys": [
"SOYMEAL_ETF"
],
"direction_score": 0,
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": "USDA海外农业局（FAS）于2026年9月11日按预定计划发布截至9月3日当周的周度出口销售报告（Weekly Export Sales），官方报告发布页面确认数据按时上线。",
"transmission_chain": "USDA周度出口销售报告按期披露 -> 市场获取新旧作美豆及大豆制品出口装运节奏 -> 影响盘面周度需求定价。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若报告数据被USDA官方发布修正通告，或统计口径发生重大会计调整。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-09112026"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260914-northeast-spot-down",
"title": "东北地区43%豆粕现货报价普遍下调10至20元/吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T01:59:17Z",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"SOYMEAL_ETF"
],
"direction_score": -1,
"confidence": 88,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": "2026年9月14日东北市场43%豆粕现货价格下调：大连九三报价3060元/吨，跌10元/吨；营口益海报价3080元/吨，跌10元/吨；盘锦中储粮报价3080元/吨，跌20元/吨；铁岭九三报价3100元/吨，跌10元/吨。",
"transmission_chain": "外盘走弱带动连粕开盘低开 -> 东北油厂下调现货出厂报价10-20元/吨 -> 现货成交承压，对豆粕ETF日内走势构成负向拖累。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若午后盘面反弹带动下游集中补库或油厂停报惜售。",
"source_urls": [
"https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091410/932E85E80D76D3BC_abc.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260914-rizhao-spot-down",
"title": "山东日照43%豆粕现货报价下调20元/吨至2940元/吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T01:54:19Z",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"SOYMEAL_ETF"
],
"direction_score": -1,
"confidence": 88,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": "2026年9月14日山东日照市场油厂43%豆粕现货贸易商报价下调：日照现货报价2940元/吨，较上一交易日下调20元/吨。",
"transmission_chain": "连粕盘面弱势震荡 -> 山东日照现货主流报价下调20元/吨逼近2940元关口 -> 压榨端现货支撑偏弱，利空豆粕ETF。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若日照港口提货放量或油厂开机率因大豆到港延迟意外下滑。",
"source_urls": [
"https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091409/F4A3210B207D3E7D_abc.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260914-beijing-spot-down",
"title": "北京三河汇福43%豆粕现货出厂价下调20元/吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T01:41:40Z",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"SOYMEAL_ETF"
],
"direction_score": -1,
"confidence": 88,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": "2026年9月14日华北市场北京地区油厂豆粕价格下调：三河汇福43%豆粕现货出厂报价3000元/吨，较上一交易日下调20元/吨。",
"transmission_chain": "京津冀主要油厂下调豆粕出厂价 -> 华北现货跌至3000元/吨整数关口 -> 现货市场采购观望情绪上升，拖累豆粕ETF。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若华北饲料企业节前集中补库导致现货报价反弹。",
"source_urls": [
"https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091409/59EBB95D8A09EC26_abc.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-shandong-crush-sales",
"title": "9月11日山东主要油厂大豆压榨4.72万吨成交5.6万吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T00:54:15Z",
"event_type": "crush_margin",
"asset_keys": [
"SOYMEAL_ETF"
],
"direction_score": 1,
"confidence": 85,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": "Mysteel山东豆粕早报披露：2026年9月11日山东主要油厂大豆开机率较上个工作日有所提高，主要油厂大豆压榨量为4.72万吨；当日豆粕成交放量，共成交5.6万吨，全部为现货成交。",
"transmission_chain": "开机率提升但单日成交放量达5.6万吨超过压榨量 -> 现货出库加快、油厂去库支撑显现 -> 短期对现货基差及豆粕ETF产生抗跌支撑。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若本周大豆密集到港且下游补库后再度陷入观望。",
"source_urls": [
"https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091408/60BB8E33D441B19F_abc.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-eastchina-crush-rate",
"title": "9月11日华东油厂开机率52.38%大豆压榨4.73万吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T00:53:07Z",
"event_type": "crush_margin",
"asset_keys": [
"SOYMEAL_ETF"
],
"direction_score": 0,
"confidence": 85,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": "Mysteel华东豆粕早报披露：2026年9月11日华东主要油厂大豆开机率52.38%，大豆压榨量4.73万吨，豆粕产出3.74万吨；主要油厂豆粕成交共0.5万吨，均为现货成交。",
"transmission_chain": "华东压榨开机维持中等水平（开机率52.38%），成交相对平淡 -> 供给端平稳，对盘面指引中性。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若油厂因胀库或环保限产发生集中停机。",
"source_urls": [
"https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091408/EF22620750E0E09E_abc.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-northeast-crush-sales",
"title": "9月11日东北油厂开机率65.05%成交0.45万吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T00:54:26Z",
"event_type": "crush_margin",
"asset_keys": [
"SOYMEAL_ETF"
],
"direction_score": -1,
"confidence": 85,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": "Mysteel东北豆粕早报披露：2026年9月11日东北主要油厂大豆开机率65.05%，主要油厂大豆压榨量3.71万吨；当日油厂豆粕共成交0.45万吨，均为现货成交。",
"transmission_chain": "东北油厂开机率处于65.05%高位而单日成交仅0.45万吨 -> 供大于求、厂内库存累积风险增加 -> 对区域现货价格及豆粕ETF产生负向压力。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若产区下游饲料企业开启集中提货带动成交放量。",
"source_urls": [
"https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091408/2F9E48BCBFE9B294_abc.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-chuan-yu-crush-rate",
"title": "9月11日川渝油厂开机率52.92%大豆压榨1.16万吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T00:46:17Z",
"event_type": "crush_margin",
"asset_keys": [
"SOYMEAL_ETF"
],
"direction_score": 0,
"confidence": 85,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": "Mysteel四川豆粕早报披露：2026年9月11日川渝主要油厂开机率52.92%，大豆压榨量1.16万吨，主要油厂豆粕成交共0.22万吨；9月14日预计开机率微降至52.01%，预计压榨量1.14万吨。",
"transmission_chain": "西南内陆油厂开机平稳运行在52%附近 -> 供给与提货基本平衡 -> 区域基差稳定，对豆粕ETF指引中性。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若长江入川运力受阻导致大豆原料断供引发油厂大幅减产停机。",
"source_urls": [
"https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091408/2B50F4E548948D6B_abc.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-guangdong-crush-sales",
"title": "9月11日广东主要油厂豆粕成交0.35万吨全部为现货",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T00:51:30Z",
"event_type": "crush_margin",
"asset_keys": [
"SOYMEAL_ETF"
],
"direction_score": -1,
"confidence": 85,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": "Mysteel广东豆粕早报披露：2026年9月11日广东主要油厂开机率维持正常，主要油厂大豆实际压榨量为3.65万吨；主要油厂豆粕共成交0.35万吨，全部为现货成交，远月基差成交为0。",
"transmission_chain": "华南压榨量3.65万吨而单日现货成交仅0.35万吨，基差零成交 -> 下游补库意愿低迷 -> 区域油厂累库压力增大，拖累现货及豆粕ETF。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若生猪水产饲料需求回暖带动下游现货采购回升。",
"source_urls": [
"https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091408/9666466F6DC898FD_abc.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
}
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