9月11日14时:华北与东北领涨,全国基差普遍走强

9月11日14时:华北与东北领涨,全国基差普遍走强

截至北京时间9月11日14:00,新增东北、华北、山东、华东、川渝等区域油厂现货调价与全国主要市场基差走强共7条事件。

[ { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-northeast-spot-up", "title": "东北主流油厂 43%豆粕现货报价普遍上调 40 至 50 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T02:28:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 92, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网(Mysteel)", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-11", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 10:28", "spot_quotes": [ { "mill": "营口益海", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3450, "change_cny_per_ton": 40 }, { "mill": "盘锦汇福", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3450, "change_cny_per_ton": 50 }, { "mill": "盘锦中储粮", "product": "大片豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3680, "change_cny_per_ton": 50 }, { "mill": "大连九三", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3430, "change_cny_per_ton": 50 }, { "mill": "丹东九三", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3410, "change_cny_per_ton": 50 }, { "mill": "铁岭九三", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3460, "change_cny_per_ton": 40 }, { "mill": "长春九三", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3500, "change_cny_per_ton": 50 } ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "东北核心油厂 43%豆粕现货出厂价集体上调 40 至 50 元/吨,主流价格区间上升至 3410 至 3500 元/吨,盘锦中储粮大片豆粕报至 3680 元/吨", "东北产区现货报价全线上调,与沿海主流油厂涨势共振,强化北方现货成本支撑,对 SOYMEAL_ETF 带来偏多提振" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "东北下游养殖及饲料厂对高价产生抵触转入观望导致成交大幅缩量", "连粕期货盘面回落带动油厂盘后下调现货出厂价" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091110/FA758399BF740A50_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091110/FA758399BF740A50_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091110/FA758399BF740A50_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091110/FA758399BF740A50_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-qingdao-bohai-spot-up", "title": "青岛渤海油厂 43%豆粕 10 月前提货合同上涨 10 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T02:33:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网(Mysteel)", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-11", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 10:33", "mill_name": "青岛渤海油厂", "contract_term": "10 月 31 日前提货合同", "product": "43%豆粕", "base_price_cny_per_ton": 3330, "price_change_cny_per_ton": 10, "high_protein_premium_cny_per_ton": 150 }, "transmission_chain": [ "青岛渤海油厂上调 43%豆粕 10 月 31 日前提货合同报量至 3330 元/吨,涨幅 10 元/吨,46 蛋白加价 150 元/吨", "山东核心油厂前移提货合同报量走高,反映油厂远期销售挺价意愿增强,支撑现货基差中枢" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "港口进口大豆到港压榨恢复导致现货供给压力快速增加", "油厂为促进合同执行大幅下调提货合同溢价" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091110/3FF08E8EADBBAF5C_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091110/3FF08E8EADBBAF5C_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091110/3FF08E8EADBBAF5C_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091110/3FF08E8EADBBAF5C_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-shanghai-dongchen-spot-up", "title": "上海东辰油厂上调 43%豆粕定量包出厂报价", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T02:50:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网(Mysteel)", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-11", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 10:50", "mill_name": "上海东辰油厂", "quotes": [ { "package": "43±0.5%蛋白 70 公斤定量包", "price_range_cny_per_ton": "3310-3340" }, { "package": "50 公斤定量包", "price_range_cny_per_ton": "3320-3350" } ], "terms": "提货期为 2026 年 9 月 16 日至 30 日需均衡提完,报价当日 14:50 前有效随盘调价,两工作日内付不低于 5%定金" }, "transmission_chain": [ "上海东辰油厂上调豆粕出厂报价,43%蛋白定量包出厂价抬升至 3310 至 3350 元/吨区间,实行限时限量随盘调价", "华东销区代表性油厂延续提价态势,反映下游提货平稳及现货刚需支撑,对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成温和支撑" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "下游饲料养殖企业转入随用随买使油厂提货进度不及预期", "华东港口豆粕累库加速压制油厂现货一口价" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091110/35A74997C56B7609_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091110/35A74997C56B7609_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091110/35A74997C56B7609_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091110/35A74997C56B7609_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-northchina-spot-up", "title": "华北主要油厂 43%豆粕现货报价大幅上涨 50 至 60 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T03:37:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 2, "confidence": 92, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网(Mysteel)", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-11", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 11:37", "spot_quotes": [ { "mill": "天津九三", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3360, "change_cny_per_ton": 60 }, { "mill": "北京汇福", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3360, "change_cny_per_ton": 60 }, { "mill": "黄骅嘉好", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3360, "change_cny_per_ton": 50 } ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "华北市场天津九三、北京汇福、黄骅嘉好三大主流油厂现货报价大幅拉涨 50 至 60 元/吨,统一攀升至 3360 元/吨", "京津冀核心油厂现货报价大幅跟涨,强化华北销区成本抬升预期,现货挺价情绪强烈,对 SOYMEAL_ETF 构成积极推升" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "高价抑制华北下游成交导致油厂在午后降价促销", "期货主力合约盘中回调迫使油厂下调报价" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091111/73E414EE68074977_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091111/73E414EE68074977_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091111/73E414EE68074977_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091111/73E414EE68074977_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-sichuan-spot-up", "title": "四川三大主流油厂 43%豆粕现货报价均上调 10 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T03:53:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网(Mysteel)", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-11", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 11:53", "spot_quotes": [ { "mill": "成都中储粮", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3450, "change_cny_per_ton": 10 }, { "mill": "广汉益海", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3450, "change_cny_per_ton": 10 }, { "mill": "彭山中粮", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3450, "change_cny_per_ton": 10 } ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "四川成都中储粮、广汉益海、彭山中粮三大油厂 43%豆粕现货报价均微涨 10 元/吨至 3450 元/吨", "川渝内陆销区受运费与刚需支撑跟随沿海提价,维持内陆对沿海正常溢价格局,为 SOYMEAL_ETF 提供底部偏多支撑" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "川渝地区大豆压榨开机超预期回升导致内陆供给增加", "生猪养殖亏损导致下游饲企提货意愿减弱" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091111/A5BCB184F7646F79_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091111/A5BCB184F7646F79_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091111/A5BCB184F7646F79_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091111/A5BCB184F7646F79_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-chongqing-spot-up", "title": "重庆江津益海与重庆一德 43%豆粕现货均上涨 10 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T03:54:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网(Mysteel)", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-11", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 11:54", "spot_quotes": [ { "mill": "江津益海", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3380, "change_cny_per_ton": 10 }, { "mill": "重庆一德", "product": "43%豆粕", "price_cny_per_ton": 3360, "change_cny_per_ton": 10 } ] }, "transmission_chain": [ "重庆江津益海报 3380 元/吨、重庆一德报 3360 元/吨,较前一日均上涨 10 元/吨", "重庆现货跟涨印证川渝地区现货抗跌挺价属性,区域价差维持稳定,巩固现货端偏强支撑" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "沿江航运到港集中释放冲击重庆本地现货价格", "饲料企业推迟补库计划使成交陷入停滞" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091111/CA2AE500049606E0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091111/CA2AE500049606E0_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091111/CA2AE500049606E0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091111/CA2AE500049606E0_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-national-basis-summary", "title": "全国主要市场豆粕现货基差多数上涨 10 至 30 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T05:43:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 85, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "我的钢铁网(Mysteel)", "report_date_beijing": "2026-09-11", "publication_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 13:43", "basis_distribution": { "inland_positive": [ { "region": "昆明", "basis_cny_per_ton": 10, "change_range_cny_per_ton": "上涨 10-30" }, { "region": "长春", "basis_cny_per_ton": 80, "change_range_cny_per_ton": "上涨 10-30" }, { "region": "成都", "basis_cny_per_ton": 50, "change_range_cny_per_ton": "上涨 10-30" } ], "coastal_negative": [ { "region": "日照", "basis_range_cny_per_ton": "-120 至-140", "change_cny_per_ton": "上涨 10-20" }, { "region": "防城港", "basis_range_cny_per_ton": "-120 至-140", "change_cny_per_ton": "上涨 10-20" }, { "region": "东莞", "basis_range_cny_per_ton": "-120 至-140", "change_cny_per_ton": "上涨 10-20" }, { "region": "湛江", "basis_range_cny_per_ton": "-120 至-140", "change_cny_per_ton": 0 }, { "region": "厦门", "basis_cny_per_ton": -60, "change_cny_per_ton": -10 } ] }, "evidence_limitation": "完整明细数据表受限于会员登录,公开智能摘要披露代表性区域数值与涨跌范围" }, "transmission_chain": [ "全国豆粕基差呈现多数上涨态势,内陆昆明、长春、成都基差保持正值并上涨 10 至 30 元/吨,沿海负基差收窄 10 至 20 元/吨至-120 至-140 元/吨,仅湛江持平、厦门微跌 10 元/吨", "全国范围基差普涨反映现货跟涨期货动力充沛,基差贴水修复带动现货端抗跌意愿,对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成偏强共振" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "下游饲料养殖备货完成后采购停滞导致沿海基差重新走弱", "油厂开机率大幅拉升使豆粕物理库存超预期增加压制现货基差" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26091113/B8E4CBB789988808_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091113/B8E4CBB789988808_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26091113/B8E4CBB789988808_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26091113/B8E4CBB789988808_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]

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