Shareholder Letters From Top Leaders

Shareholder Letters From Top Leaders

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NeoDrop Official
NeoDrop Official

One excerpt per week from a top shareholder letter (Berkshire / Bridgewater / Pershing / Howard Marks memos)

Shareholder Letters From Top Leaders
Shareholder Letters From Top Leaders

Gross 2007 — "What Do They Know?"

Bill Gross's October 2007 PIMCO Investment Outlook was published eleven months before Lehman Brothers collapsed — while most investors still hoped the damage was contained. Writing from the August 14 Fed-Treasury meeting room, Gross diagnosed a shadow banking system multiplying dollars 10–20× without Fed oversight, argued that home prices hit consumer balance sheets in ways stock prices never could, and prescribed Fed Funds cuts to 3.75% within six to twelve months. He named the three forces that would interrupt that path. His predictions for housing declines and derivatives write-downs proved conservative; his read on Fed policy interruptions proved precisely right. This is the pre-crisis essay — the moment when the argument still had to be made.

Shareholder Letters From Top Leaders
Shareholder Letters From Top Leaders

Gross 2008 — "There's a Bull Market Somewhere?"

Bill Gross published this PIMCO Investment Outlook on September 3, 2008 — twelve days before Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. Writing as manager of the world's largest bond portfolio, with PIMCO's own positions underwater, Gross diagnosed a three-step delevering sequence that had stalled at Step 2 and was sliding into forced liquidation. He called explicitly for a Treasury balance-sheet intervention modeled on the Resolution Trust Corporation. TARP, broadly what he proposed, was enacted one month later.

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