Crude round-trips $9 on Gulf supply and a Houthi strike; gold slides 2.9%: weekly settlements, Sep. 18–24
For Sep. 18–24, crude slid for six sessions to lows last seen in early September as Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline and Iraq raised exports, then jumped about 3% on a Houthi missile attack, while hawkish Fed commentary and record diesel prices pushed gold down 2.87%.
Five sessions to Thursday, September 24, 2026, took crude oil down and back: a six-session slide that put the US benchmark at its lowest since September 1, then a 3.4% rebound after Houthi missiles flew toward Saudi Arabia. Gold absorbed the week's hardest hit, down 2.87%, as hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, a two-month-high dollar and record diesel prices compounded. December copper led the six tracked contracts at +1.47%, with New York futures touching a record midweek and Chinese warehouse stocks at their lowest since December 2023.
Data cutoff: 5:00 p.m. ET on September 24, 2026. Each market is tracked in one fixed futures month so consecutive weekly recaps compare the same contract: COMEX December 2026 gold (
GCZ26), NYMEX November 2026 WTI (CLX26), ICE December 2026 Brent (BRNZ26), CBOT December 2026 corn (CZ26), CBOT November 2026 soybeans (SX26), and COMEX December 2026 copper (HGZ26). Percentage changes compare the Friday, September 18 close proxy against the Thursday, September 24 settlement, both read from the same contract page. MarketWatch historical closes are close proxies rather than exchange-certified settlement benchmarks; the September 24 figure on each page is the settlement the page publishes. Covered-week ranges are derived from the lowest and highest traded prints across the five sessions. Open interest is the current value on each contract's overview page, compared with that same page read at the September 17 close; the WTI comparison could not be made because no September 17 value was captured. A week-over-week volume change remains unavailable for the full set of contracts and is marked Data temporarily unavailable.Settlement snapshot
| Market | Fixed contract | Sep. 18 close proxy | Sep. 24 settlement | Week-over-week move | Sep. 18–24 derived range | Sep. 24 volume / 65-day average | Open interest, Sep. 24 | Change vs. Sep. 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | COMEX Dec. 2026 (HGZ26) 1 | $6.6915/lb 1 | $6.7900/lb 1 | +1.47% ($6.7900 ÷ $6.6915 − 1) 1 | $6.6085–$6.9285/lb, derived 1 | 24.54K / 22.55K, 109% of average 1 | 174,830 2 | +7,550 versus 167,280 2 |
| Soybeans | CBOT Nov. 2026 (SX26) 3 | 1,303.50¢ 3 | 1,317.50¢ 3 | +1.07% (1,317.50 ÷ 1,303.50 − 1) 3 | 1,300.00–1,331.50¢/bu, derived 3 | 128.45K / 134.18K, 96% of average 3 | 468,582 4 | −9,877 versus 478,459 4 |
| Brent | ICE Dec. 2026 (BRNZ26) 5 | $99.29/bbl 5 | $100.22/bbl 5 | +0.94% ($100.22 ÷ $99.29 − 1) 5 | $93.68–$102.39/bbl, derived 5 | 488.1K / 225.12K, 217% of average 5 | 555,020 6 | +76,902 versus 478,118 6 |
| Corn | CBOT Dec. 2026 (CZ26) 7 | 527.50¢ 7 | 527.50¢ 7 | 0.00% (527.50 ÷ 527.50 − 1) 7 | 525.50–544.50¢/bu, derived 7 | 198.19K / 236.29K, 84% of average 7 | 931,504 8 | −18,465 versus 949,969 8 |
| WTI | NYMEX Nov. 2026 (CLX26) 9 | $96.08/bbl 9 | $94.61/bbl 9 | −1.53% ($94.61 ÷ $96.08 − 1) 9 | $88.67–$98.01/bbl, derived 9 | 390.68K / 121.19K, 322% of average 9 | 311,804 10 | Data temporarily unavailable 10 |
| Gold | COMEX Dec. 2026 (GCZ26) 11 | $4,424.90/oz 11 | $4,298.00/oz 11 | −2.87% ($4,298.00 ÷ $4,424.90 − 1) 11 | $4,278.30–$4,439.80/oz, derived 11 | 161.09K / 110.18K, 146% of average 11 | 314,505 12 | +1,140 versus 313,365 12 |
Copper led the six tracked contracts at +1.47%, soybeans followed at +1.07% and Brent at +0.94%. Corn closed the week at the same 527.50¢ it began it, and gold was the one market down more than a percent, at −2.87%. The gap between the best and worst contract was 4.3 percentage points.
Oil: a Gulf re-opening, then a missile salvo
December Brent rose 0.94%, from $99.29 to $100.22 a barrel, while November WTI fell 1.53%, from $96.08 to $94.61. The two contracts moved 2.5 percentage points apart, and the week inside each was wider than either net figure: WTI ran a $88.67–$98.01 span and Brent a $93.68–$102.39 span. 59
Supply news drove the first leg down. Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West Pipeline on Tuesday, September 22, three sources briefed on the matter said, eleven days after drone attacks the kingdom blamed on Iraqi militia forced the line shut and halted crude loadings at the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The pipeline carries about 7 million barrels a day of capacity and had been moving roughly 4 million barrels a day around the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Iraq's oil minister said the same day that the country was exporting more than 3 million barrels a day and expected to raise flows through Turkey past 600,000 barrels a day. 1314
Diplomacy pointed the same way. US and Iranian negotiators held their first talks since June on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, where a senior Iranian official told Reuters the strait could reopen within seven days if Washington eased military pressure and lifted its blockade on Iranian ports. 14
Official inventory data added to the supply side of the ledger. Commercial crude stocks rose 3.0 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels in the week ended September 18, the Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday, against an expected draw of 641,000 barrels in a Reuters poll of analysts. Refineries processed 16.8 million barrels a day, down 519,000 barrels a day, at 94.0% of capacity. Gasoline inventories fell 1.7 million barrels to 6% below the five-year average, and distillates fell 0.4 million barrels to 12% below it. Crude imports dropped 1.2 million barrels a day to 5.9 million a day. 15
Then the reversal. Brent settled up $3.83, or 3.86%, at $103.08 on Wednesday after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the General Assembly that Tehran would never surrender, and both benchmarks extended on Thursday: Brent settled up $3.52, or 3.4%, at $106.60, and WTI up $2.45, or 2.7%, at $94.61. Both had been up about 5% at their session highs before reports that Washington and Tehran had discussed reopening the strait pulled them back. Saudi Arabia's air defences intercepted six ballistic missiles fired by Yemen's Houthis at the Taif and Yanbu areas on the Red Sea, the Saudi-led coalition said. 1416
Two diesel headlines whipsawed product markets. Politico reported that the White House was preparing a 90-day ban on diesel exports ahead of November's midterm elections; the White House denied the report, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright said a ban would not work. Wright then contacted executives at several large refiners about a voluntary restriction instead, according to three people familiar with the discussions. 1416
The underlying distillate market is where the pressure sits. The US average diesel price rose 24.4 cents to a record $6.529 a gallon in the week ended September 21, the ninth increase in eleven weeks and 278.0 cents above the same week a year earlier; the Midwest average reached $6.68. Global diesel supply is tight because Moscow has banned exports after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, while Iranian attacks have hit ships and energy infrastructure around the Middle East. 1617
The Gulf disruption is lasting longer than the restart headline suggests. Aramco extended the suspension of shipments from Yanbu to Europe into November, and while the pipeline is building pumping volumes, crude tanker loadings had yet to resume by Thursday, according to industry sources, satellite imagery and shipping data. Iran kept enforcing its blockade, and independent observers reported another tanker struck near the choke point on Thursday. Tanker rates on the main Middle East–China routes have hit a record $1.2 million a day since late August. 181920
OPEC made no new output decision this week. Its most recent production statement remains the September 6 release from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman; the two releases added this week were the eighth OPEC–China energy dialogue on September 23 and the seventh OPEC–India dialogue on September 22, neither of which changed output. 21
The shape of the futures curve is the week's clearest signal. At Thursday's settlement the front-month November Brent contract stood at $106.60 against the December contract tracked here at $100.22, a $6.38 gap, while front-month WTI's $94.61 left an $11.99 spread between the two front-month crude benchmarks. A curve carrying that much backwardation prices barrels for near-term delivery above later ones, which reflects buyers competing for the cargoes available now. 1622
The confirmation points for oil are whether tanker loadings at Yanbu actually restart, whether the New York talks convert into a phased reopening of the strait, and whether the next EIA report shows the distillate draw easing.
Copper: a record, then the week's best close
December COMEX copper rose 1.47%, from $6.6915 to $6.7900 a pound, the best of the six tracked contracts. The path was not straight. The contract ran to a session high of $6.9285 on Tuesday, the day New York futures set a fresh all-time high, then fell 0.9% in London on Wednesday as the jump in oil prices and a run of strong US economic data stoked concern about higher interest rates. London copper closed at $14,618 a tonne that day, its first daily decline since September 14. 120
Physical tightness in China is what carried the metal up. ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson wrote that Shanghai copper cathode inventories fell 14,700 tonnes to 43,900 tonnes, the lowest since December 2023, as buyers restocked before the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day break. Imported copper did arrive, the analysts noted, but most of it went straight to fabricators instead of into warehouses, which kept spot supply tight. 23
Speculative positioning moved the other way. Net bullish copper positions fell 3,981 lots to 42,132 in the latest Commitments of Traders data, a sixth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest since late March. Net longs in aluminium dropped 11,623 lots to 77,423, and zinc 2,787 lots to 29,946, extending a fourth week of declines for that metal. Prices rose while investors trimmed, which points to the buying coming from consumers rather than from funds. 23
Open interest tells the same story at the contract level: 174,830 contracts at Thursday's close against 167,280 a week earlier, an increase of 7,550 that ranks second only to Brent among the six markets. 2
The confirmation points for copper are whether Shanghai cathode stocks keep drawing once the holidays pass and whether London's record run resumes.
Gold: a growth surprise and a hawkish chorus
December gold fell 2.87%, from $4,424.90 to $4,298.00 a troy ounce, the largest weekly decline among the six markets, inside a $4,278.30–$4,439.80 span. The drop was concentrated in the second half of the week. Spot gold lost 1.7% to $4,282.53 on Wednesday and the December future settled 1.3% lower at $4,318.40; on Thursday spot was down 0.9% at $4,249.37 by late morning, having earlier touched its lowest since September 16. Silver, platinum and palladium fell harder than gold on Wednesday, down 3.9%, 5% and 3.7%. 112425
Two forces did the work. The first was the September flash purchasing managers' survey, published Wednesday: the S&P Global US Composite Output Index rose to 58.4 from 56.0 in August, the fastest expansion since July 2021, with the services business activity index at 58.7 and the manufacturing PMI at 57.0. Input costs rose at the steepest rate in four years, a move S&P Global attributed to spiking fuel and transport costs. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote that companies were building pricing power and called that a worry for the inflation outlook. 26
The second was the Federal Reserve. After last week's quarter-point increase to 3.75%–4.00%, policymakers spent this week reinforcing it: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the energy shock may need to be treated as persistent inflation, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Boston Fed President Susan Collins both backed the move, and Governor Michael Barr highlighted the need for tighter policy. Traders cut the odds of an October increase to 66% from 77% a day earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool, while the dollar held at a two-month high and the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near a two-decade high. 2425
Higher energy prices sit at the centre of that chain, which is why gold has traded almost inversely to oil since the US–Israeli war with Iran began in late February. Peter Grant, senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, told Reuters that post-FOMC Fed speak had been fairly hawkish and the market was pricing at least one more increase before year-end. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, put the support level to watch at $4,235, with a break exposing the June–July area around $4,000. 2425
Gold open interest rose slightly, to 314,505 contracts from 313,365, the smallest change among the five contracts where a comparison is available. 12
The confirmation points for gold are Friday's PCE inflation print, which lands after this cutoff, and whether October rate-hike pricing keeps falling from its midweek peak.
Soybeans: China keeps buying into a fast harvest
November soybeans gained 1.07%, from 1,303.50¢ to 1,317.50¢ a bushel, and closed near the top of a 1,300.00–1,331.50¢ range. 3
Export demand explains the bid. Net soybean export sales for the week ended September 17 came to 582,400 metric tons for the 2026/27 marketing year, with China taking 311,800 metric tons; export shipments reached 775,400 metric tons, of which China received 446,800. Sales were down 66% from the previous week's total. 27 Private exporters reported two further sales to China inside this window, 111,000 metric tons announced September 18 and 120,000 metric tons announced September 24. 2829
The physical crop is arriving quickly. Harvest reached 12% of the soybean acreage by September 20 against a five-year average of 8%, and 62% of the crop had dropped leaves against an average of 58%. The good-to-excellent rating held at 58% for a second week. 30 Unshipped balances of corn, soybeans and wheat across the marketing year totalled 36.60 million metric tons as of September 17, down 4% in a week and 28% above the same date a year earlier. 17
Open interest fell to 468,582 contracts from 478,459 as the contract rallied, a reduction of 9,877. 4
The confirmation point for soybeans is whether Chinese buying holds its pace through the fastest harvest week of the season so far.
Corn: unchanged, against a record export week
December corn finished at 527.50¢ a bushel, the same price it closed the September 18 session at, a week-over-week change of 0.00%. It traded between 525.50¢ and 544.50¢ and settled on 84% of its 65-day average volume, the lightest relative turnover of the six tracked markets. 7
Underneath the flat close, the export book is running hot. Net corn export sales for the week ended September 17 were 838,300 metric tons for 2026/27, down 5% from the previous week, against export shipments of 1.9 million metric tons. 27 Private exporters reported a further 100,000 metric tons to Mexico on September 23. 31 Pacific Northwest terminals loaded a record 705,917 metric tons of corn in the week ending September 17, 80% of it bound for Japan. 17
Field progress kept ahead of normal. By September 20, 13% of the corn acreage was harvested against a five-year average of 11%, 58% was mature against an average of 55%, and 92% was dented against an average of 91%. The good-to-excellent rating held at 57%. 30
Moving that crop is getting more expensive. From October, rail tariff rates from the western Corn Belt to Pacific Northwest export terminals rise by $200 a car for BNSF-served origins and $225 a car for CPKC-served origins. Class I railroads originated 28,001 grain carloads in the week ending September 12, up 2% from the previous week and 16% above last year, and secondary shuttle railcar bids averaged $525 above tariff, down $67 on the week. Barged grain movements totalled 376,954 tons in the week ending September 19, down 14% from the previous week and 44% above a year earlier. 17
Open interest dropped to 931,504 contracts from 949,969, the largest decline among the five contracts with a comparison. 8
The confirmation points for corn are whether weekly net sales hold above a million metric tons and how much the October rail increases and record diesel add to the cost of moving this harvest.
Cross-market read
- Fuel prices set the week's common factor. Crude's round trip reached the other markets through its products: a record $6.529 average diesel price and four-year-high input costs in the September PMI survey put energy back at the centre of the inflation story, which pressed gold and copper into Wednesday and lifted the dollar to a two-month high. 172426
- Crude's curve carries more information than its headline. Front-month November Brent settled at $106.60, $6.38 above the December contract tracked here and $11.99 above front-month WTI, so a flat-looking weekly change in the tracked months hides how much scarcity sits in the nearest deliveries. 1622
- Copper and gold read the same macro week in opposite directions. Copper's bid came from Chinese fabricators pulling metal out of warehouses and paying up for imports, while gold's buyers stepped back as real yields and the dollar rose; the two ended 4.3 percentage points apart. 2325
- Grains traded their own book. Corn closed unchanged and soybeans rose 1.07% on a harvest running ahead of average and steady Chinese demand, with agricultural freight costs rising underneath from diesel and October rail tariffs. 317
What to watch next: whether the New York talks turn into a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, whether Yanbu tanker loadings restart, Friday's PCE inflation print and the October FOMC pricing that follows it, and whether Shanghai copper inventories resume falling after the National Day holidays.
References
- 1COMEX copper Dec. 2026 price history
marketwatch.com
- 2COMEX copper Dec. 2026 contract overview
marketwatch.com
- 3CBOT soybeans Nov. 2026 price history
marketwatch.com
- 4CBOT soybeans Nov. 2026 contract overview
marketwatch.com
- 5ICE Brent Dec. 2026 price history
marketwatch.com
- 6ICE Brent Dec. 2026 contract overview
marketwatch.com
- 7CBOT corn Dec. 2026 price history
marketwatch.com
- 8CBOT corn Dec. 2026 contract overview
marketwatch.com
- 9NYMEX WTI Nov. 2026 price history
marketwatch.com
- 10NYMEX WTI Nov. 2026 contract overview
marketwatch.com
- 11COMEX gold Dec. 2026 price history
marketwatch.com
- 12COMEX gold Dec. 2026 contract overview
marketwatch.com
- 13
- 14
- 15
- 16
- 17Grain Transportation Report, September 24, 2026
ams.usda.gov
- 18
- 19
- 20Morgan Downey's Commodity News, September 24, 2026
commoditynews.morgandowney.com
- 21
- 22ICE Brent Nov. 2026 price history
marketwatch.com
- 23China Supply Tightness Lifts Copper Near Record Highs
tradingpedia.com
- 24
- 25
- 26S&P Global US Flash PMI, September 2026
pmi.spglobal.com
- 27Weekly Highlights, export reports for September 11–17, 2026
apps.fas.usda.gov
- 28Export Sales to China, September 18, 2026
fas.usda.gov
- 29Export Sales to China, September 24, 2026
fas.usda.gov
- 30Crop Progress, September 21, 2026
release.nass.usda.gov
- 31Export Sales to Mexico, September 23, 2026
fas.usda.gov
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