Stablecoin daily: USDT loses $1B
Big-3 stablecoins lost $1.119B in the Jun 25–26 daily window, led by a $971M Ethereum USDT reversal. Solana stabilized as USDC recovered above $7B, but BTC below $59K, Extreme Fear at 13, and $773.6M in combined BTC/ETH ETF outflows keep the liquidity signal bearish.
Data cutoff: stablecoin supply around 9:00 a.m. ET on Jun 26; BTC/ETH prices around 9:10 a.m. ET. This issue covers roughly 9:29 a.m. ET on Jun 25 to 9:00 a.m. ET on Jun 26.
The daily liquidity read flipped from rotation risk to outright contraction. The Big-3 stablecoins lost $1.119B in 24 hours, with USDT alone down $1.018B and nearly all of that decline coming from Ethereum USDT. 1 Solana is the exception: USDC recovered back above $7B while USDT was flat, so the chain that drove yesterday's outflow stopped bleeding. 1
The problem is that the broader tape did not confirm a recovery. BTC sat below $59K, ETH underperformed BTC, Fear & Greed stayed at 13, and U.S. spot BTC plus ETH ETFs shed a combined $773.6M on Jun 25. 23456 The signal is bearish acceleration, with Solana acting as a local anomaly rather than a market-wide turn.
Big-3 scorecard: USDT drives the drawdown
| Asset | Current supply | 24h change | 7d change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDT | $185.035B 1 | −$1.018B 1 | −$1.131B 1 | The largest daily drag in the core basket. |
| USDC | $73.717B 1 | −$73.0M 1 | −$1.122B 1 | Still shrinking, but Solana partly offset the decline. |
| DAI | $4.840B 1 | −$30.6M 1 | +$456.7M 1 | A third daily decline, but still above last week's level. |
| Big-3 total | $263.592B 1 | −$1.119B 1 | −$1.797B 1 | Broad contraction, led by USDT. |
USDT is the decisive change. Its circulating supply fell from $186.053B to $185.035B in 24 hours, a 0.55% daily contraction. 1 Tether's own transparency page last reported $186.252B of USDt net circulation as of Jun 22 at 7:30 p.m. ET, which is $1.217B above the current DeFiLlama figure because Tether's attestation predates the latest decline. 17
USDC also remained negative at −$73.0M over 24 hours and −$1.122B over seven days. 1 DAI fell $30.6M for its third straight daily decline, though its seven-day change is still positive because of the earlier expansion. 1
The only major stablecoin counterweight was USDS. USDS rose $105.3M to $8.236B, and Ethereum USDS accounted for almost all of that move with a $106.3M chain-level increase. 1 That does not offset the Big-3 drawdown, but it does show that the day's liquidity contraction was not evenly distributed across every dollar asset.
Chain flows: Ethereum USDT reverses; Solana stops bleeding
Ethereum USDT is the main event. The chain's USDT supply fell from $80.034B to $79.063B, a $971.3M daily decline. 1 That single chain explains 95.5% of USDT's total daily contraction, reversing the prior day's $238M Ethereum USDT repatriation. 1 Tron USDT was effectively unchanged at $87.748B, so the USDT contraction was not a broad Tron-led redemption event. 1
Solana moved the other way. Solana USDC rose $91.4M to $7.095B, putting it back above the $7B level it had lost earlier in the week. 1 Solana USDT was flat at $2.656B, down only $1.17 from the prior day. 1 The three-day Solana hemorrhage has stopped for now, but the recovery is concentrated in USDC rather than a chain-wide surge across every stablecoin.
Hyperliquid L1 remained the cleanest negative USDC signal. Hyperliquid L1 USDC fell $105.6M to $5.764B, its third consecutive day below $6B, and the chain's total stablecoin balance also stayed below $6B at $5.978B. 1 The research pull did not identify bridge or exchange-flow data that explains the cause, so this should be treated as a persistent drain rather than an attributed outflow.
Avalanche deteriorated across both core assets. Avalanche USDT fell $39.9M to $372.0M, while Avalanche USDC fell $34.7M to $464.7M; together, the two assets lost $74.6M in 24 hours. 1 Tether's transparency page reported $394.3M of Avalanche USDt net circulation as of Jun 22, close enough to the DeFiLlama figure to make the Avalanche read less likely to be a pure accounting mismatch. 7
The positive pockets were smaller and mostly USDC-led. Arbitrum USDC rose $34.4M to $2.361B, offsetting a $6.1M Arbitrum USDT decline. 1 Aptos USDC rose $15.2M to $208.0M, with Aptos USDT nearly flat at $826.1M. 1 Base USDC added $19.0M to reach $4.189B, while Mantle USDT added $11.6M to $391.3M. 1
Two zero-outs should be handled carefully. Sui USDT dropped from $13.0M to $0, and Near USDC dropped from $48.2M to $0. 1 Because both moves are abrupt and chain-specific, they may reflect bridge migration or data reclassification rather than economic redemption. The next daily pull should confirm whether those balances remain at zero.
Macro confirmation: spot, sentiment, and ETFs all line up bearish
BTC was $58,982.97 at 9:10 a.m. ET on Jun 26, down 0.56% over 24 hours and 6.49% over seven days. 2 The move took BTC below the $60K level that had framed the prior sessions. 2 ETH was weaker: $1,532.35 at 9:08 a.m. ET, down 1.66% over 24 hours and 9.79% over seven days. 3
Sentiment did not rebound. The Fear & Greed Index read 13, still classified as Extreme Fear, after a cycle-low 12 on the prior day. 4 The index has now remained in Extreme Fear for more than 32 consecutive days, which means the one-point uptick does not change the risk-off backdrop. 4
ETF flows were the institutional confirmation. U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded −$691.7M of net flow on Jun 25, compared with −$469.0M on Jun 24. 5 The verified outflow streak is six trading days from Jun 17 through Jun 25, with about −$1.52B of cumulative BTC ETF outflows over that span. 5 Fund-level selling was broad: FBTC lost $274.5M, IBIT lost $265.7M, ARKB lost $82.1M, and only MSBT recorded a positive $9.2M flow. 5
U.S. spot ETH ETFs added another −$81.9M of net outflow on Jun 25, almost triple the prior day's −$30.3M. 6 ETHA accounted for $63.0M of the selling, or about 77% of the total ETH ETF outflow. 6 Combined BTC and ETH ETF outflows reached −$773.6M for Jun 25, matching the stablecoin contraction signal rather than contradicting it. 56
Policy and institutional context
Stablecoin policy stayed active while liquidity weakened. President Trump cancelled the Jun 24 signing ceremony for the housing bill that includes a CBDC ban, tying his signature to the SAVE America Act after that bill failed its latest Senate vote 48-50 on Jun 4. 8 The CBDC provision would bar the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC through Dec 31, 2030, while exempting open, permissionless, private stablecoins such as USDT and USDC. 8
The market-structure bill is less settled. Sen. Cynthia Lummis said negotiators plan to release final CLARITY Act text around Jul 4 for a July Senate vote, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Semafor that the chamber is running out of time. 9 Prediction-market odds for 2026 passage fell from about 74% to 42% over the past month. 9
Institutional stablecoin infrastructure kept moving despite the market selloff. Nomura Holdings signed an MOU with Circle on Jun 26 to explore stablecoin settlement, on-chain collateral management, fund transfers, and capital-markets transactions in Japan and global markets. 10 Invesco, which manages $2.5T, filed for the Invesco Stablecoin Reserves Onchain Fund, a tokenized vehicle that would invest in cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries to back stablecoins. 11
Japan also added a consolidation signal. SBI Holdings agreed on Jun 25 to buy Bitbank for about $289M, with closing expected in October 2026 subject to regulatory approval. 12 The combined business would have 2.92M accounts and about $6.8B in assets under custody, making it Japan's largest crypto operator by those reported figures. 12
Liquidity signal for the next window
The next read should start with three variables.
- Ethereum USDT: If the $79.063B balance keeps falling, the daily burn has moved beyond a one-day reversal and into sustained Ethereum-side liquidity contraction. 1
- Solana USDC: If Solana USDC holds above $7.095B, the chain's local stabilization has a better chance of surviving the broader risk-off move. 1
- ETF flows: If BTC and ETH ETFs continue losing hundreds of millions per session after the Jun 25 combined −$773.6M outflow, stablecoin stabilization alone will not be enough to call a liquidity turn. 56
For now, the supply contraction is larger than the local recoveries. Solana stopped leaking, USDS gained, and a few L2 pockets grew. The main pool that matters most today is Ethereum USDT, and it just gave back nearly a billion dollars in one window.
Cover image: image from Crypto Briefing.
References
- 1DeFiLlama Stablecoins Dashboard
defillama.com
- 2CoinPaprika BTC market page
coinpaprika.com
- 3CoinPaprika ETH market page
coinpaprika.com
- 4Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index
alternative.me
- 5Farside Investors Bitcoin ETF flows
farside.co.uk
- 6Farside Investors Ethereum ETF flows
farside.co.uk
- 7Tether Transparency
tether.to
- 8TechTimes: Trump Holds CBDC Ban Hostage
techtimes.com
- 9
- 10Nomura: MOU with Circle for digital finance
nomuraholdings.com
- 11
- 12CoinDesk: SBI Holdings to buy Bitbank
coindesk.com
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