Weekly settlements: Hormuz risk pushes oil up 11% as gold slides
WTI and Brent rose about 11% from July 10 to July 16 as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and Hormuz shipping risk rebuilt the oil premium; gold fell nearly 3%, while USDA revisions and favorable crop ratings kept grains contained.
Bottom line
From the Friday, July 10 close to Thursday, July 16, oil was the clear outlier: August WTI rose 10.56% to $78.95 and September Brent gained 10.81% to $84.23. The move rebuilt a geopolitical premium after renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and fresh concern about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The final day was lower, but not enough to reverse the week’s surge. 1
Gold moved the other way. August COMEX gold fell 2.96% week over week to $3,992.10 as the oil shock revived inflation and rate concerns, even after softer U.S. inflation data briefly supported bullion. Corn and soybeans finished only modestly higher after a friendly July WASDE report met better-than-expected crop ratings; copper was nearly flat as supply constraints offset mixed Chinese demand signals.
Settlement snapshot
The comparison uses the same contract month at both endpoints: August 2026 gold and WTI, September Brent and copper, December corn, and November soybeans. Weekly changes are calculated from the July 10 close to the July 16 settlement or final quoted close.
| Market | Contract | July 10 close | July 16 settlement / final close | Week over week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | COMEX Aug 2026 | $4,113.70/oz | $3,992.10/oz | −2.96% 23 |
| WTI | NYMEX Aug 2026 | $71.41/bbl | $78.95/bbl | +10.56% 14 |
| Brent | ICE Sep 2026 | $76.01/bbl | $84.23/bbl | +10.81% 14 |
| Corn | CBOT Dec 2026 | $4.61/bu | $4.64/bu | +0.65% 56 |
| Soybeans | CBOT Nov 2026 | $11.9075/bu | $11.95/bu | +0.36% 67 |
| Copper | COMEX Sep 2026 | $6.2820/lb | $6.2945/lb | +0.20% 89 |
The AP grain and copper tables label the final field “Last,” while the gold table labels it “Settle.” The September copper figure on the CME page is a delayed last quote rather than a displayed official settlement, so the copper row is a close-to-close market-data comparison, not a claim that an unavailable settlement field was verified. The public tables also do not provide a consistent week-over-week open-interest series across all six contracts. They do show July 16 estimated volume of 391,344 contracts for the corn table and 208,977 for soybeans, versus 135,857 estimated gold sales and partial delayed volume for copper. 2579
Oil: the route risk came back faster than supply normalized
The week’s price action was a reversal of the normalization trade that dominated the prior recap. Oil rallied sharply on Monday after fighting between the United States and Iran reignited, then held most of the advance as traders reassessed the ability of tankers to move through Hormuz. Reuters described the renewed attacks and shipping risk as the reason crude stayed near a one-month high; Thursday’s settlements still fell 0.82% for WTI and 0.85% for Brent. 10
The supply backdrop was not uniformly bullish. OPEC cut its 2026 demand-growth forecast for a third straight time, to 780,000 barrels per day, while reporting that OPEC+ crude output averaged 36.28 million barrels per day in June, about 3 million bpd above May as Gulf producers restored output. 11 OPEC+’s seven-country group also agreed on July 5 to add 188,000 bpd in August, with the next review scheduled for August 2. 12
U.S. inventories offered a mixed but still supportive signal. In the week ended July 10, commercial crude stocks fell 1.7 million barrels to 409.7 million, about 6% below the five-year average. Gasoline stocks fell 1.5 million barrels and were 8% below the five-year average, while distillates rose 4.6 million barrels but remained 11% below the seasonal average. Refinery utilization reached 96.2%, with crude inputs averaging 17.1 million barrels per day. 13
The result was a market with two opposing narratives: OPEC and recovering Gulf output argued for more barrels, while a renewed route disruption threatened to strand or delay them. This week, traders paid more for the second risk.
Gold: lower inflation data could not offset the oil shock
Gold settled at $4,069.70 on Tuesday after the U.S. dollar fell 0.6% following softer consumer-price data, but the rebound did not last. Wednesday’s PPI release was also interpreted as easing the near-term inflation pressure; by Thursday, renewed Middle East escalation pushed U.S. gold futures down 1.5% to $3,992.10. Reuters tied the renewed selling to concern that higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated and slow the Federal Reserve’s path toward lower rates. 1415
That is why gold and oil moved in opposite directions despite sharing the same geopolitical headline. Oil priced a direct supply and shipping risk; gold faced the prospect that the resulting energy shock would keep real rates and the dollar less friendly. The week’s $121.60 decline in the August contract was therefore more about the rates channel than the absence of safe-haven demand.
Grains: tighter balances, but weather did not deliver a new shock
The July 10 WASDE report gave corn the strongest fundamental lift. USDA kept the 2026/27 yield at 183 bushels per acre, cut beginning stocks by 125 million bushels to 2.0 billion, raised feed and residual use by 150 million bushels, reduced ethanol use by 25 million, and lowered ending stocks by 170 million to 1.8 billion bushels. Soybean production rose 40 million bushels to 4.475 billion on a higher supply base, exports rose 30 million bushels, and ending stocks held at 310 million bushels. 16
Demand also improved at the margin. USDA’s export-sales report for the week ended July 9 showed combined soybean sales of 1.96 million metric tons, including 1.19 million tons to China. Corn sales totaled 626,200 tons, below the low end of trade expectations. 17
Crop ratings kept the bullish WASDE reaction in check. USDA’s July 13 report put corn at 68% good to excellent and soybeans at 65%, each 1 percentage point above the prior week. Corn was 34% through silking and soybeans were 50% blooming. 18 Iowa’s report described a wet week followed by warmer, drier conditions and stressed that soil moisture and timely rain would matter as corn entered tasseling and pollination; Iowa rated 78% of corn and 74% of soybeans good to excellent. 19
That combination explains the small weekly gains: the balance sheets were friendlier, China returned as a visible soybean buyer, but national crop conditions remained good enough that weather risk did not become a sustained premium.
Copper: supply stayed tight while China sent mixed signals
September COMEX copper was almost unchanged on the week. The market still had a supply argument: Codelco’s new leadership is emphasizing margins over volume, Chile was preparing for a winter storm that could threaten mining operations, and Codelco has repeatedly missed production targets. Chinese unwrought and semi-finished copper imports rose 3% in June to 478,300 tonnes, but first-half copper imports fell 5.3% year over year and concentrate imports fell 0.9%. 20
The market therefore held above $6.20/lb but did not match oil’s geopolitical move. Tight mine and smelter supply provided a floor; softer property and fixed-asset investment data in China limited the upside. For next week, the important question is whether supply disruptions become a physical-availability story or remain an equity-and-forecast story.
What to watch next
- Oil: whether Hormuz traffic normalizes faster than the security risk fades; the August OPEC+ review is the next scheduled supply checkpoint. 12
- Gold: whether the oil move feeds into U.S. inflation expectations and keeps the dollar and real yields firm.
- Grains: the next USDA Crop Progress report and the pace of China’s soybean buying; good-to-excellent ratings remain high, but pollination weather is now the near-term price risk. 18
- Copper: Chilean weather, Codelco output, and whether China’s import improvement can overcome weak property demand. 20
References
- 1Crude futures settle lower, Xinhua
english.news.cn
- 2AP gold futures, July 16
finance.yahoo.com
- 3AP gold futures, July 10
finance.yahoo.com
- 4July 10 commodity close
moneynomical.com
- 5AP corn futures, July 16
finance.yahoo.com
- 6Grains close the week strongly, July 10
agriculture.com
- 7AP soybean futures, July 16
finance.yahoo.com
- 8AP copper futures, July 10
finance.yahoo.com
- 9CME copper quotes, July 16
cmegroup.com
- 10
- 11
- 12
- 13
- 14
- 15
- 16USDA cuts corn ending stocks in July WASDE, Agriculture.com
agriculture.com
- 17Sales to China drive soybean exports, MarketWatch
marketwatch.com
- 18Crop conditions improve slightly, Pro Farmer
profarmer.com
- 19Iowa Crop Progress and Condition Report
iowaagriculture.gov
- 20Copper rises as Codelco focuses on margins, Share Talk
share-talk.com
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