Weekly settlements: Red Sea risk sends oil past $100 while grains catch a bid
Oil led the Jul. 17–23 window as Red Sea and Hormuz risks pushed Brent above $100; grains rallied on weather and China demand while gold and copper lagged the energy move.
Bottom line
Oil was the clear leader in the Jul. 17–23 settlement window. September WTI rose from a Jul. 17 final quote of $81.78 to a Jul. 23 settlement of $92.19, while September Brent climbed from $88.10 to $100.69. The move was not a clean demand story: renewed U.S.-Iran escalation, uncertainty around Hormuz traffic, and reported Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea rebuilt a physical-risk premium even as U.S. crude inventories rose. 1234
Gold finished the week slightly higher, but its path turned sharply lower on Thursday as the oil shock lifted inflation and rate concerns. Corn and soybeans also gained, helped by weather risk and strong new-crop soybean demand. Copper ended higher on the week but lagged the rest of the complex and gave back ground in Thursday trading.
Data cutoff: Jul. 23, 2026, 5:00 p.m. ET (UTC-05:00). The Jul. 17 reference column below uses the final quote/last field from contemporaneous public tables where a historical official-settlement row was not consistently exposed; Jul. 23 uses the displayed settlement field. The comparisons are therefore close-to-settlement references rather than a perfectly uniform settlement-to-settlement series.
Settlement snapshot
| Market | Contract used | Jul. 17 reference | Jul. 23 settlement | Change across window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | NYMEX Sep. 2026 | $81.78/bbl | $92.19/bbl | +12.73% |
| Brent | ICE Sep. 2026 | $88.10/bbl | $100.69/bbl | +14.29% |
| Gold | COMEX Aug. 2026 | $4,018.80/oz | $4,050.20/oz | +0.78% |
| Corn | CBOT Dec. 2026 | 467.50¢/bu | 487.50¢/bu | +4.28% |
| Soybeans | CBOT Nov. 2026 | 1,203.00¢/bu | 1,243.75¢/bu | +3.39% |
| Copper | COMEX Sep. 2026 | 6.2650/lb* | $6.3435/lb | +1.25% |
WTI and Brent references come from the Jul. 17 AP and Newsquawk tables and the Jul. 23 MarketWatch settlement pages. 1234 Gold references are from the Jul. 17 AP table and the Aug. 2026 MarketWatch contract page. 56 Corn and soybean references are from the Jul. 17 AP tables and the Jul. 23 MarketWatch contract pages. 78910 Copper's Jul. 17 value is the Sep. 2026 historical close shown in the daily price record; the Jul. 23 figure is the MarketWatch settlement. 1112
* Copper is explicitly marked as a close proxy because the historical page exposes a daily close rather than a uniformly presented official settlement row.
Oil: the route-risk premium overwhelmed the inventory build
The Jul. 22 session made the mechanism clear. September WTI settled at $86.83 and September Brent at $94.07 after President Trump threatened strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure if commercial shipping attacks continued. DTN also reported that tracking systems had not identified tankers or LNG carriers moving through Hormuz during the relevant period, while several Saudi tankers turned away from Red Sea routes. A separate disruption at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal was estimated to be removing roughly 1.2–1.5 million barrels per day from global supply. 13
On Thursday, the risk broadened beyond Hormuz. DTN reported that Houthi forces had reportedly attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, threatening a route used to move Gulf barrels toward Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port. Brent then settled above $100 for the first time in this window, despite the absence of a fresh demand shock. 14
The EIA data were a counterweight, not a full bearish signal. Commercial U.S. crude inventories rose 2.0 million barrels to 411.7 million for the week ended Jul. 17. Gasoline stocks rose 0.8 million barrels to 211.3 million, but remained 8.6% below a year earlier; distillate stocks rose 1.4 million barrels to 109.6 million. That combination said headline crude supply was available while refined-product tightness and transport risk were still supporting the front of the curve. 1315
The OPEC+ backdrop was modestly more supply-friendly, but it did not dominate this week's tape. On Jul. 5, the seven participating countries said they would implement an additional 188,000-barrel-per-day adjustment in August while retaining the option to increase, pause, or reverse the phase-out; the next meeting is scheduled for Aug. 2. 16
Gold: a safe-haven gain erased by the rate channel
August gold rose 0.78% across the window, from $4,018.80 to $4,050.20 per ounce, but fell about 2.4% on Thursday. The reversal followed the same sequence visible in oil: a larger energy shock lifted inflation expectations, Treasury yields moved higher, and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset increased. CNBC reported that the next week's Federal Reserve meeting was in focus as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to a more-than-one-year high. 5617
The dollar was not a one-way headwind. Vantage's Jul. 23 review put the USDX around 100.786 after a move above 101 earlier in the week, while initial jobless claims fell to 208,000 for the week ended Jul. 11. Markets were already in the Fed blackout period ahead of the Jul. 28–29 meeting, with a hold widely expected but renewed hike risk still discussed because of energy-driven inflation. 18
For positioning, the important distinction is between gold's weekly close and Thursday's impulse: the week still finished positive, but the final session showed that rising oil can turn a geopolitical safe-haven bid into a real-yield and policy problem very quickly.
Grains: weather risk met real new-crop demand
Corn and soybeans both finished higher, with soybeans holding the stronger demand narrative. USDA's Jul. 20 Crop Progress report put national corn at 67% good-to-excellent, down one point on the week, while soybeans improved one point to 66% good-to-excellent. Corn was 59% silking and soybeans were 66% blooming; both stages were ahead of the five-year pace, leaving the market focused on whether the next few weeks deliver enough moisture during yield-sensitive development. 1920
Iowa supplied the sharper local warning. For Jul. 13–19, statewide precipitation averaged only 0.06 inch against a 0.93-inch normal, temperatures averaged 5.1°F above normal, and moderate drought expanded in western Iowa. The state still rated 80% of corn and 79% of soybeans good-to-excellent, but the report said crops would benefit from rain as corn tasseled and soybeans moved through blooming and pod-setting. 21
Demand provided the second leg. USDA's Jul. 23 export-sales release covered the week ended Jul. 16. The report, as summarized by RFD, showed 56.5 million bushels of new-crop soybean sales, about 37 million to China, alongside 2.1 million bushels of old-crop sales. Corn sales totaled 27.6 million new-crop bushels and 13.1 million old-crop bushels. AgWeb's market read was that war risk, China demand, and weather were supporting soybeans, even as the six-to-ten-day forecast looked more favorable for the crop. 222324
The grain signal was therefore constructive but conditional: new-crop demand is real, yet the market still needs weather confirmation before treating the rally as a durable supply shock.
Copper: positive week, less conviction
September COMEX copper gained about 1.25% using the Jul. 17 historical close proxy and the Jul. 23 settlement. The daily record shows a wide week, from a Jul. 17 low of 6.1940/lb to a Jul. 21 high of 6.5670/lb before the contract pulled back into Thursday's close. 1112
That pattern matters more than the small net gain. Copper did not keep pace with oil's geopolitical surge or the grains' weather-and-demand bid, and the sources reviewed did not provide a new, contract-specific mine or smelter disruption strong enough to make a fresh supply attribution. The cleaner read is a market still supported by a tight physical backdrop but more sensitive than oil or grains to the rate and growth signal coming from the Fed week ahead.
Data note: liquidity fields are not fully comparable this week
The Jul. 17 AP tables report session high/low, volume, and aggregate open interest for the contracts they cover. The Jul. 23 public pages expose final settlements and selected day ranges, but they do not provide a consistent same-contract volume and open-interest snapshot across all six markets at the same cutoff. I have therefore not presented a fabricated weekly volume/OI change series. Copper's historical page provides daily volume but not a comparable open-interest change. Those fields remain a coverage gap rather than an inference.
What to watch next
- Jul. 28–29: the Federal Reserve meeting and the market's response to the oil-driven inflation impulse. 18
- Jul. 27: the next USDA Crop Progress release, when the market will reprice corn and soybean condition after another week of heat, rain, and crop development. 19
- Aug. 2: the next OPEC+ meeting, with the prior 188,000-barrel-per-day August adjustment as the supply baseline. 16
- Every shipping headline: Hormuz, the Red Sea, Saudi port routing, and the CPC terminal remain the variables most capable of overpowering inventory data in the oil complex.
Source and contract notes
Prices are shown in the contract months listed in the table rather than mixing a front-month rollover into the weekly comparison. Gold is dollars per troy ounce, crude is dollars per barrel, grains are cents per bushel, and copper is dollars per pound. Percent changes are calculated from the two displayed reference prices and rounded to two decimals.
Sources
The article uses the linked AP, exchange-market, government, and market-report pages cited next to each fact. The Jul. 23 cutoff is displayed in Eastern Time; source pages may show their own local publication or update times.
References
- 1AP crude futures table
finance.yahoo.com
- 2Newsquawk crude wrap, Jul. 17
newsquawk.com
- 3MarketWatch WTI front-month overview
marketwatch.com
- 4MarketWatch Brent overview
marketwatch.com
- 5AP gold futures table
finance.yahoo.com
- 6MarketWatch Gold Aug. 2026 overview
marketwatch.com
- 7AP corn futures table
finance.yahoo.com
- 8MarketWatch Corn Dec. 2026 overview
marketwatch.com
- 9AP soybean futures table
finance.yahoo.com
- 10MarketWatch Soybeans Nov. 2026 overview
marketwatch.com
- 11Copper futures historical data
investing.com
- 12MarketWatch Copper Sep. 2026 overview
marketwatch.com
- 13DTN Oil Update, Jul. 22
dtnpf.com
- 14DTN Oil Update, Jul. 23
dtnpf.com
- 15
- 16
- 17
- 18Vantage USDX analysis, Jul. 23
vantagemarkets.com
- 19USDA Crop Progress releases
esmis.nal.usda.gov
- 20DTN Crop Progress, Jul. 20
dtnpf.com
- 21Iowa Crop Progress and Condition Report, Jul. 13–19
iowaagriculture.gov
- 22USDA Weekly Export Sales, Jul. 23
fas.usda.gov
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