Weekly settlements: Oil loses the war premium
This weekly recap covers the post-June-26 close through the July 2 settlement window. Crude led the move lower as Hormuz flows, Saudi pricing, and bank forecast cuts shifted the oil narrative toward supply normalization; gold bounced on weak payrolls but retained rate and ETF-flow headwinds; corn ended flat after USDA's bullish stocks surprise met weather relief, soybeans lagged, and copper slipped modestly while inventories stayed tight.
Data cutoff: July 2, 2026, 17:00 ET. Coverage window: post-June 26 close through the July 2 settlement window. This recap uses the research package's confirmed settlement data only; COMEX gold's July 2 official settlement and COMEX copper's July 2 front-month official settlement were not fully resolved in the package, so those rows flag the gap rather than filling it with an estimate.
The weekly board was led by crude, where the settlement move finally caught up with the Hormuz reopening story. WTI finished at $68.69/bbl, down $1.21, or 1.73%, from the June 26 close, while Brent rolled into September and settled at $71.80/bbl, down $0.80, or 1.10%, from the June 26 baseline. 12 Gold bounced after weak payrolls, but the latest confirmed COMEX settlement in the package was still July 1's $4,082.40/oz, down 0.34% from June 26. 3 Corn round-tripped to unchanged, soybeans lost ground, and copper slipped only modestly despite a stronger-dollar drag. 456
Weekly settlement board
| Market | Contract / data note | Latest level in package | Weekly move vs. Jun 26 | Main weekly driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX gold | GCQ6 Aug; latest confirmed official settlement was Jul 1 | $4,082.40/oz | -$13.90 / -0.34% | NFP miss produced a bounce, but higher real-rate and ETF-flow pressure remained. 3 |
| NYMEX WTI crude | CLQ6 Aug | $68.69/bbl | -$1.21 / -1.73% | Hormuz flows and Saudi supply normalization pulled war premium out of the curve. 1 |
| ICE Brent crude | BRNU6 Sep after the Jun 30 Aug expiry | $71.80/bbl | -$0.80 / -1.10% | Brent followed the same supply-normalization trade after the front-month roll. 2 |
| CBOT corn | ZCN6 Dec | 441.50¢/bu | 0.00¢ / 0.00% | Bullish USDA stocks met weather-relief selling into the holiday close. 4 |
| CBOT soybeans | SXN6 Nov | 1,147.75¢/bu | -8.50¢ / -0.73% | Soybeans lagged corn after weak export sales and slightly bearish stocks. 5 |
| COMEX copper | HGN6 Jul last price; official Jul 2 front-month settlement pending in package | $6.1225/lb | -$0.0150 / -0.24% | Tight LME stocks offset China-demand support and dollar pressure. 6 |
Oil: from shortage premium to surplus math
The oil move was the cleanest cross-week story. WTI settled at $68.69 on July 2 after a three-session slide into July, and Brent's September contract settled at $71.80 after the August contract expired at $72.92 on June 30. 12 MarketWatch reported that WTI fell 31% in Q2, the largest quarterly drop since Q1 2020, while Brent fell 38% over the same quarter. 7
The driver was no longer just the absence of a new shock. Morgan Stanley said the Strait of Hormuz was reopening faster than expected and cut its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $75/bbl, while Reuters reported the bank now expects a 4.8 million bpd global surplus in 2027. 89 Reuters also reported that the July 2 Doha talks ended with Qatar describing "positive progress" on the June memorandum, while at least five Saudi VLCCs carrying a combined 10 million barrels moved from Ras Tanura through Hormuz. 10
Saudi pricing added the market-share signal. OilPrice.com, citing a Reuters survey of industry sources, said Saudi Aramco was expected to cut August Arab Light official selling prices by $6.50-$8.00/bbl, taking the Asia premium down to roughly $1.50-$3.00/bbl over Oman/Dubai after a $9.50/bbl July premium. 11 The EIA's July 1 petroleum report was less bearish on the surface because commercial crude stocks fell 3.775 million barrels to 408.359 million barrels, but the same report showed a 5.536 million barrel SPR draw and a 2.483 million barrel build in distillate stocks. 12
Gold: payroll relief, but not a clean turn
Gold's weekly tape was messy because the official July 2 COMEX settlement was not resolved in the package. The confirmed settlement point is July 1: August gold at $4,082.40/oz, up $43.90 on the day but still 0.34% below the June 26 baseline. 3 Spot gold recovered to $4,067.67/oz on July 2 after dipping below $4,000 earlier in the week. 13
The bounce came from labor data. June nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000, below the 115,000 consensus, and April-May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000. 14 CNBC reported that the unemployment rate slipped to 4.2%, but labor-force participation dropped to 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021. 15 The dollar moved with the rate reaction: DXY fell toward 100.75, down from the June 26 baseline of 101.34. 14
That relief did not erase the structural headwinds. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at the ECB Forum in Sintra that "prices are too high" and reaffirmed the Fed's 2% inflation target, while declining to give July FOMC guidance. 16 Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 year-end gold target from $5,400/oz to $4,900/oz, citing no expected Fed cuts in 2026, while JPMorgan kept a $6,000/oz target. 17 The package also reported 38.3 tonnes of weekly global gold-backed ETF outflows and 62 tonnes over three weeks, so the payroll bounce is better read as a rate-relief rally inside a still-heavy positioning backdrop. 18
Grains: USDA saved corn, export sales hurt soybeans
Corn's week had a full round trip. December corn fell to 430.00¢ on June 29, rallied to 442.25¢ on July 1, and settled July 2 exactly where it had closed June 26 at 441.50¢. 419 November soybeans finished at 1,147.75¢, down 8.50¢ from June 26. 5
USDA's June 30 reports split the grain board. Corn planted acres came in at 95.343 million, above the 94.99 million consensus, but June 1 corn stocks were only 5.295 billion bushels, 113 million bushels below the trade estimate. 19 AgWeb reported that implied March-May corn disappearance reached a record 3.74 billion bushels, which shifted the report-day focus from acreage to demand. 19 Soybean planted acres were 85.365 million, essentially in line with the 85.37 million consensus, while June 1 soybean stocks of 1.06 billion bushels were 15 million bushels above the estimate. 19
The late-week selling was weather and exports. Morningstar/Dow Jones reported that July 2 corn and soybeans closed lower as oppressive heat was expected to ease within 36-48 hours, with normal to slightly below-normal temperatures through July 15 described by Gary Sandlund of Futures International as nearly perfect for corn pollination. 20 Total Farm Marketing reported old-crop soybean export sales of only 1.5 million bushels, a marketing-year low, plus 6.7 million bushels of new-crop sales; Morningstar/Dow Jones put combined soybean sales at 224,300 MT, below the 500,000-1.5 million MT forecast range. 2021
Copper: tight stocks, unresolved tariff catalyst
Copper was the least dramatic settlement move, but not a quiet market. The package's July 2 front-month COMEX copper value was a $6.1225/lb last price, down 0.24% from the June 26 baseline, while the HG00 continuous contract showed a September settlement of $6.1690/lb. 6 The official July 2 front-month COMEX settlement was not confirmed in the package, so the weekly move should be treated as a latest-price read rather than a final CME settlement print. 6
The supply side still argues against a clean bearish read. Westmetall data showed LME copper inventories at 324,850 tonnes on July 1, down 11,625 tonnes, or 3.5%, from the June 26 baseline. 22 Reuters reported that combined on- and off-warrant LME copper stocks were only about 400,000 tonnes, with much of that Russian metal. 23 Demand signals were also not weak: China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June, and Caixin manufacturing PMI held at 51.7 for a seventh month above 50. 2425
The overhang is policy. CME/Inspirante Trading Solutions said the U.S. copper Section 232 report was due to the White House by June 30, with the presidential decision still pending as of July 1. 26 TradingKey reported the proposed tariff path at 15% for refined copper from 2027 and 30% from 2028, with COMEX copper inventories already around 652,200-654,038 tonnes after tariff-driven stockpiling. 27
Next week's live checks
- Oil: The market needs confirmation that Hormuz flows and Saudi spot selling continue to outweigh residual geopolitical risk; the next EIA report is scheduled for July 8 and covers the week ending July 3. 12
- Grains: The next major USDA waypoint is the July 10 WASDE, with crop progress due July 6 after the forecast heat break. 4
- Gold: The rate tape now turns on whether the NFP miss keeps the dollar and real yields below the levels that drove gold under $4,000 earlier in the week. 14
- Copper: The Section 232 decision remains the binary catalyst; confirmed tariffs would interact with already elevated COMEX inventories, while a delay would remove one of the clearest supports for the U.S. premium. 26
Cover image: Reuters oil pumpjacks near Kindersley, Saskatchewan, via Reuters.
References
- 1MarketWatch: CL.1 Crude Oil WTI Front Month Overview
marketwatch.com
- 2
- 3CME Group: Gold Futures Settlements
cmegroup.com
- 4MarketWatch: Corn Continuous Contract Overview
marketwatch.com
- 5MarketWatch: Soybeans Continuous Contract Overview
marketwatch.com
- 6MarketWatch: Copper Continuous Contract Overview - HG00
marketwatch.com
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 10
- 11
- 12
- 13
- 14
- 15
- 16
- 17CruxInvestor: Gold's Worst Quarter Since 2013
cruxinvestor.com
- 18
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- 21Total Farm Marketing: TFM Daily Market Summary 07-02-2026
totalfarmmarketing.com
- 22Westmetall: Market Data - LME Official Prices & Stocks
westmetall.com
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