June 26 settlements: Crude breaks below $70
June 26 was a supply-normalization session in crude, with WTI settling below $70 as Ras Tanura loadings restarted and forecast cuts reinforced bearish oil sentiment. Gold bounced on a softer dollar and lower Fed-hike odds, copper stayed supported by tight inventories and Grasberg risk, and grains eased ahead of the June 30 USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.
Data cutoff: June 26, 2026, 17:00 ET, with a post-cutoff oil-risk note where the research package captured after-hours trading. Collection window: June 25, 17:27 ET → June 26, 17:00 ET. COMEX copper's official June 26 settlement was not available in the research package at cutoff; the copper row below uses the latest quoted HGN6 value in the package and flags the gap.
Friday's board split into four trades. Crude sold off hardest as Saudi Aramco restarted crude loading at Ras Tanura's Ju'aymah terminal, shifting the day-session focus from Hormuz disruption to returning Persian Gulf supply. 1 Gold bounced because the dollar eased and rate-hike odds slipped after PCE, even though headline inflation was hot. 2 Copper held gains on tight inventories and unresolved Grasberg supply risk. 3 Grains drifted lower before the June 30 USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports. 4
Settlement table — June 26, 2026
| Market | Contract | June 26 level | vs. Jun 25 | % chg | Day driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYMEX WTI crude | CLQ26 Aug | $69.90/bbl | -$2.02 | -2.81% | Ras Tanura restart outweighed ship-attack risk during settlement hours. 5 |
| ICE Brent crude | BRN00 continuous | $72.60/bbl | not provided | not provided | Brent followed WTI lower; MarketWatch showed a June 26 settlement of $72.60 and a $71.93-$75.46 range. 6 |
| COMEX gold | GCQ6 Aug | $4,096.30/oz | +$48.70 | +1.2% | Dollar eased; Fed-hike odds moved down after PCE. 7 |
| COMEX copper | HGN6 Jul | $6.1375/lb latest quote | +$0.0635 vs. Jun 25 settle | +1.05% | Official June 26 CME settlement was not posted in the package; LME inventories tightened. 8 |
| CBOT corn | CN6 Jul | 412.75¢/bu | -2.00¢ | -0.48% | Position-squaring before first notice day and USDA reports. 9 |
| CBOT soybeans | SN6 Jul | 1,126.25¢/bu | -1.25¢ | -0.11% | No new China flash sale was confirmed Friday. 10 |
| CBOT wheat | WN6 Jul | 578.25¢/bu | -12.75¢ | -2.16% | Wheat led the grain decline. 9 |
Oil: supply normalization beat the security premium
WTI CLQ26 settled at $69.90/bbl, down $2.02 from $71.92, and traded between $68.56 and $71.86 during the session. 5 Brent settled at $72.60/bbl, with the continuous contract showing a $71.93-$75.46 session range. 6 The day-session message was clear enough: traders treated returning Gulf supply as the larger force.
Saudi Aramco resumed crude loading at Ras Tanura's Ju'aymah offshore terminal on June 26, the first Persian Gulf loading there since the early-March war disruption. Two Bahri VLCCs were loading and a third vessel was waiting offshore; each VLCC can carry about 2 million barrels. 1 Ras Tanura exported more than 5 million bpd before the war, while Saudi crude exports had fallen from above 7 million bpd in February to about 4 million bpd during the disruption. 1
Rystad Energy estimated idled Persian Gulf production capacity fell from 11.7 million bpd three weeks earlier to 9.6 million bpd by mid-June, implying roughly 2 million bpd of capacity had returned in three weeks. 1 Barclays also cut its Brent forecasts, moving 2026 from $100/bbl to $96/bbl and 2027 from $88/bbl to $85/bbl, citing Hormuz flows back near 80% of pre-war levels. 11 Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 2026 Brent forecast from $90/bbl to $80/bbl and lowered its 2027 average forecast to $75/bbl. 11
Security risk did not disappear. The Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely was struck near Oman on June 25, and IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez paused the plan to evacuate more than 11,000 seafarers from the Persian Gulf until safety guarantees could be reconfirmed. 12 MarketWatch reported that Iranian authorities ordered at least three tankers to turn back, while another two appeared to divert. 13 After the settlement window, the research package captured a Pentagon-confirmed U.S. retaliatory strike on Iran; Brent moved from the $72.60 settlement to about $73.60, and WTI rebounded above $70 in electronic trading. 6 That after-hours move matters for the next session, but it does not change Friday's settlement.
No new EIA petroleum report was released Friday. The latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report in the package covered the week ended June 19 and was released June 24; the next release, covering the week ended June 26, is scheduled for July 1. 14
Gold and macro: a bounce, still within a hawkish-rate tape
COMEX August gold settled at $4,096.30/oz, up $48.70, or 1.2%, from $4,047.60. The session range was $3,998.10-$4,111.50, so the $4,000 line held for a second straight day after the June 25 break. 7 Reuters put spot gold at $4,077.64/oz, up 1.3%, at 13:35 ET, while silver rose 2.2% to $59.12, platinum rose 2.0% to $1,632.80, and palladium rose 2.5% to $1,213.87. 2
The macro mix was not dovish. Headline PCE inflation reached 4.1% YoY, the first reading above 4% since April 2023, and core PCE was 3.4%, in line with expectations. 15 The market reaction still helped gold because the dollar softened: DXY closed at 101.34, down from 101.43, and traded in a 101.05-101.57 range. 16 Reuters said September Fed-hike odds fell to about 59% from 64% earlier, according to CME FedWatch data cited in its gold report. 2
Neel Kashkari, the Minneapolis Fed president and a 2026 FOMC voter, worked against the relief trade at the margin. He said at the Aspen Ideas Festival that he had moved from expecting one 2026 rate cut in March to expecting one 2026 rate hike in June. 17 Kashkari cited tariffs, Strait of Hormuz disruption affecting fertilizer and energy, and AI data-center spending as inflation drivers. 17 That keeps the gold bounce tactical rather than cleanly bullish: lower dollar and lower hike odds helped Friday, but the Fed debate remains pointed at restrictive policy.
ETF data had one useful line and one gap. iShares Gold Trust (IAU) held 465.55 tonnes as of June 26, with net assets of $60.94 billion and NAV of $76.59. 18 SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) daily tonnage for June 24-26 was not resolved in the package because the official page rendered key fields through JavaScript, so this recap does not use an unverified third-party GLD tonnage claim. 19
Copper: official COMEX gap, but tight supply kept the bid alive
The copper data point is less clean than the other settlements. CME's copper settlement page in the package did not yet show the official June 26 COMEX settlement, so the latest available HGN6 quote was $6.1375/lb, up $0.0635, or 1.05%, from the June 25 settlement of $6.0740. 8 The quoted June 26 range was $6.0235-$6.2430. 8 Until the official settlement is confirmed, the better read is direction and catalyst rather than a final COMEX settlement print.
LME data confirmed the same tone. Benchmark three-month copper rose 0.3% to $13,308/ton in official rings after falling as much as 1.4% to $13,083 earlier in the session. 3 LME copper stocks fell to 336,475 tons, the lowest since March 18, while ShFE stocks fell 5.7% WoW to 135,732 tons, the lowest since December. 3 The LME cash-to-three-month discount narrowed to $35.50/ton from $42.40/ton, signaling tighter nearby supply. 3
Grasberg still anchors the supply narrative. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimated that the September 2025 mudslide at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine could remove about 591,000 tonnes of copper output through December 2026, including 278,000 tonnes in 2025 and 313,000 tonnes in 2026. 20 Grasberg normally produces about 1.7 billion pounds, or roughly 770,000 tonnes, of copper annually, about 3.2% of global supply. 20 No new Grasberg-specific Freeport 8-K was found in June; the only June 8-K in the package was a routine annual-meeting filing. 21
Demand did not add much help. China's May unwrought copper and copper product imports were 446,000 metric tons, down 1.33% month over month, and January-May imports totaled 2.01 million tons, down 7% YoY. 22 That leaves copper supported by supply tightness, not a broad demand acceleration.
Grains: de-risking before June 30 USDA
CBOT grains closed lower across the core contracts. July corn settled at 412.75¢/bu, down 2.00¢; December corn settled at 441.50¢/bu, down 1.50¢. 9 July soybeans settled at 1,126.25¢/bu, down 1.25¢, and November soybeans settled at 1,156.25¢/bu, down 0.75¢. 9 July CBOT wheat settled at 578.25¢/bu, down 12.75¢, making wheat the weakest leg of the grain board. 9
The market is waiting for Tuesday's USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports, due June 30 at 12:00 p.m. ET. 23 Analyst averages in the package put corn planted area at 94.992 million acres, down 346,000 acres from March intentions, and soybean area at 85.369 million acres, up 669,000 acres from March. 24 June 1 grain stocks expectations were also heavy: corn at 5.392 billion bushels, soybeans at 1.051 billion bushels, and wheat at 935 million bushels. 23
Weekly export sales gave soybeans the best fundamental line, but Friday's tape did not reward it. Old-crop soybean sales were 455,400 tonnes, up 7% week over week, and new-crop soybean sales were 902,200 tonnes, a marketing-year high. 25 New-crop corn sales were 735,900 tonnes, while old-crop corn sales fell 36% week over week to 743,100 tonnes. 26 No new China soybean flash sale was confirmed Friday; the package identified only the prior confirmed 200,000-tonne new-crop China purchase. 10
Weather remains conditional rather than one-way bullish. DTN said a heat ridge should build from June 28 and push large parts of the eastern U.S. into the 90s°F, with heat-index readings of 100-110°F for several days. 27 DTN meteorologist John Baranick argued the heat could help excessively wet areas by adding growing degree days and drying soils, but he warned that the western Corn Belt and Plains would become the focus if heat persisted into mid-July. 27
What to watch next
- Hormuz and Ras Tanura: Friday's settlement priced returning supply; after-hours oil trading priced renewed military risk. The next session has to reconcile both. 16
- USDA June 30: Acreage and stocks matter more than Friday's small grain settlement moves because analyst expectations already cluster tightly around corn and soybean acreage. 23
- EIA July 1: The next petroleum report is the first scheduled update for the week ended June 26, after the Ras Tanura restart and Hormuz traffic changes. 14
- Gold's rate tape: Gold needs the dollar and real-yield move to keep easing; Kashkari's shift to a 2026 hike keeps that test active. 17
- Copper confirmation: The official COMEX HGN6 June 26 settlement remains the data item to fill. The directional read was positive, but the final settlement print was unavailable at cutoff. 8
Cover image: Copernicus Sentinel-1 radar image of VLCC activity around Ras Tanura/Ju'aymah, via Energy News Beat.
References
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5MarketWatch: Crude Oil WTI Front Month overview
marketwatch.com
- 6MarketWatch: Brent Crude Oil Continuous Contract overview
marketwatch.com
- 7MarketWatch: Gold Continuous Contract overview
marketwatch.com
- 8CME Group: Copper Futures Settlements
cmegroup.com
- 9
- 10
- 11
- 12
- 13
- 14
- 15
- 16MarketWatch: U.S. Dollar Index overview
marketwatch.com
- 17
- 18iShares: iShares Gold Trust product page
ishares.com
- 19SPDR Gold Shares: GLD product page
spdrgoldshares.com
- 20Benchmark Mineral Intelligence: Grasberg supply shock to plunge refined copper market into deficit in 2026
source.benchmarkminerals.com
- 21StockTitan: Freeport-McMoRan 8-K filing, June 10, 2026
stocktitan.net
- 22
- 23
- 24
- 25
- 26Successful Farming: 3 Big Things Today, June 26, 2026
agriculture.com
- 27
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