8月31日13时:华南、西南豆粕现货上调,远期基差持稳

8月31日13时:华南、西南豆粕现货上调,远期基差持稳

北京时间11:00至13:00,广东、湛江、四川、重庆、广西现货报价上调,华东邦基与张家港达孚远期基差报价稳定。

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"mysteel-cn-20260831-zhanjiang-spot-up", "title": "湛江渤海 43%豆粕报 3230 元/吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T03:10:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 85, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "统计日": "2026-08-31", "油厂": "广东湛江渤海", "43%蛋白豆粕": "3230 元/吨", "46%蛋白豆粕加价": "130 元/吨", "价格变化": "小幅上调" }, "transmission_chain": [ "湛江渤海 43%豆粕出厂价为 3230 元/吨,46%蛋白在 43%基础上加价 130 元/吨", "当地油厂上调出厂价为华南现货提供边际支撑,豆粕 ETF 方向评分轻度偏正" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续湛江渤海报价回落", "华南其他油厂报价下调并覆盖本次上调信号" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/5D8EC8E0FDE8756E_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/5D8EC8E0FDE8756E_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/5D8EC8E0FDE8756E_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/5D8EC8E0FDE8756E_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-sichuan-spot-up", "title": "四川三家 43%豆粕报价均涨 10 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T03:14:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 2, "confidence": 92, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "统计日": "2026-08-31", "蛋白规格": "43%豆粕", "成都中储粮": "3360 元/吨,较此前上涨 10 元/吨", "广汉益海": "3360 元/吨,较此前上涨 10 元/吨", "彭山中粮": "3360 元/吨,较此前上涨 10 元/吨" }, "transmission_chain": [ "成都中储粮、广汉益海和彭山中粮的 43%豆粕报价均为 3360 元/吨,均较此前上涨 10 元/吨", "四川三家油厂同向提价使西南现货信号偏强,豆粕 ETF 短线方向评分偏正" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续四川油厂报价回落", "四川现货成交转弱且其他西南油厂停止跟涨" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/F7B4ED5001E411A6_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/F7B4ED5001E411A6_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/F7B4ED5001E411A6_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/F7B4ED5001E411A6_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-chongqing-spot-up", "title": "重庆两家 43%豆粕报价均涨 10 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T03:15:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 2, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "统计日": "2026-08-31", "蛋白规格": "43%豆粕", "江津益海": "3310 元/吨,上涨 10 元/吨", "重庆一德": "3270 元/吨,上涨 10 元/吨" }, "transmission_chain": [ "江津益海 43%豆粕报 3310 元/吨、重庆一德报 3270 元/吨,两家均较前一日上涨 10 元/吨", "重庆现货同步上调强化西南区域现货支撑,豆粕 ETF 短线方向评分偏正" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续重庆两家油厂报价回落", "西南区域其他报价转为下调并伴随成交收缩" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/95F84BF4DBB45946_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/95F84BF4DBB45946_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/95F84BF4DBB45946_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/95F84BF4DBB45946_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-guangxi-spot-up", "title": "广西豆粕现货价格上涨 10 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T03:17:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 78, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "统计日": "2026-08-31", "市场": "广西", "现货价格变化": "上涨 10 元/吨", "绝对报价": "页面摘要未披露" }, "transmission_chain": [ "广西市场豆粕现货价格较此前上涨 10 元/吨,详情页未披露绝对报价", "已确认的区域提价为豆粕现货提供轻度支撑,但缺少绝对价使信号强度受限" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续广西详情显示本次上涨被回调", "广西其他油厂报价转为持平或下调" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/3995CA2402DB3560_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/3995CA2402DB3560_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/3995CA2402DB3560_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/3995CA2402DB3560_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-zhangjiagang-basis-stable", "title": "张家港达孚豆粕远期基差报价稳定", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T03:27:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "统计日": "2026-08-31", "油厂": "张家港达孚", "9 月 3 日至 9 月 15 日提货": "执行 2701 合约-100 元/吨", "9 月提货": "执行 2701 合约-50 元/吨", "10 月至次年 1 月提货": "执行 2701 合约+10 元/吨,限量供应", "2027 年 5 月至 7 月提货": "执行 2705 合约平价", "报价变化": "整体稳定" }, "transmission_chain": [ "张家港达孚不同提货窗口的 2701 和 2705 远期基差条款保持稳定", "远期基差没有新增变动,豆粕 ETF 短线方向保持中性" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续张家港达孚调整 2701 或 2705 合约基差", "张家港现货价格出现连续下调并改变远期报价结构" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/9F933AFF3853A77F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/9F933AFF3853A77F_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/9F933AFF3853A77F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/9F933AFF3853A77F_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-guangdong-spot-up", "title": "广东三家 43%豆粕报价均涨 40 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T03:39:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 2, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "统计日": "2026-08-31", "蛋白规格": "43%豆粕", "东莞嘉吉": "3230 元/吨,较此前上涨 40 元/吨", "东莞中储粮": "3230 元/吨,较此前上涨 40 元/吨", "东莞达孚": "3230 元/吨,较此前上涨 40 元/吨" }, "transmission_chain": [ "东莞嘉吉、东莞中储粮和东莞达孚的 43%豆粕报价均为 3230 元/吨,均较此前上涨 40 元/吨", "广东三家油厂同向提价为华南现货提供较强边际支撑,豆粕 ETF 短线方向评分偏正" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续广东油厂报价回落", "华南现货成交转弱且其他区域报价停止跟涨" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/FABDCCC5254CC9B9_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/FABDCCC5254CC9B9_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/FABDCCC5254CC9B9_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083111/FABDCCC5254CC9B9_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]

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