8月31日15时：嘉吉华南豆粕近月贴水，远月基差分化

[ { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-cargill-southchina-basis", "title": "嘉吉华南豆粕近月贴水，远月基差分化", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T06:22:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T06:22:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "报价主体": "嘉吉（华南）油厂", "报价日期": "2026-08-31", "单位": "元/吨", "交货与基差": { "9 月 20 日前交货": "M01-50", "10—11 月": "M01+0", "11 月—次年 1 月": "M01+20", "12 月—次年 1 月": "M01+30", "次年 2—4 月": "M01+10", "次年 5—7 月": "M05+20" }, "较前次报价": "来源页未披露涨跌金额" }, "transmission_chain": [ "嘉吉华南 9 月 20 日前交货基差为 M01-50，10—11 月为 M01+0，近月现货相对 01 合约偏弱", "11 月至次年 1 月、次年 2—4 月和次年 5—7 月报价分别为 M01+20、M01+10 和 M05+20，远月报价出现分化，单一报价主体的期限结构对豆粕 ETF 给出中性信号" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "嘉吉华南后续下调近月基差，或近月贴水扩大", "嘉吉华南后续将多个远月基差同步调高或调低，改变当前近弱远期分化结构" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083114/889903AE57E8AD74_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083114/889903AE57E8AD74_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083114/889903AE57E8AD74_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083114/889903AE57E8AD74_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]