9月1日09时：库存分化、区域开机与现货成交

[ { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-national-inventory", "title": "全国油厂大豆库存降、豆粕库存升", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T08:14:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "统计周期": "2026 年第 35 周", "全国主要油厂大豆库存": "827.97 万吨", "大豆库存周环比": "减少 1.33%", "全国主要油厂豆粕库存": "116.73 万吨", "豆粕库存周环比": "增加 5.18%", "未执行合同": "393.25 万吨", "未执行合同周环比": "减少 14.75%", "豆粕表观消费量": "177.86 万吨", "样本说明": "Mysteel 自 2024 年 1 月 5 日起优化网页端样本点" }, "transmission_chain": [ "大豆库存周环比下降，代表油厂可用大豆库存减少；豆粕库存周环比上升，代表成品库存压力增加。", "原料库存收缩与成品库存增加方向相反，因此该组库存数据对豆粕 ETF 给出中性信号。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "下一周大豆库存与豆粕库存同向变化，当前相反结构消失。", "Mysteel 调整样本口径，导致本周数据与前周不再可比。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083116/F26F5D694FE5A58E_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083116/F26F5D694FE5A58E_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083116/F26F5D694FE5A58E_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083116/F26F5D694FE5A58E_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-port-inventory", "title": "全国港口大豆库存降至 978 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T08:20:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "统计截至": "2026-08-28", "全国港口大豆库存": "978 万吨", "较上周": "减少 20.90 万吨", "较去年同期": "增加 72.40 万吨", "单位": "万吨" }, "transmission_chain": [ "全国港口大豆库存较上周减少 20.90 万吨，港口待压榨原料缓冲下降。", "短期原料库存收缩对豆粕供应形成偏紧信号，但库存仍高于去年同期 72.40 万吨，限制利多强度。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "下一期港口大豆库存重新增加，且增幅扭转本周下降。", "后续到港量持续高于压榨消耗，使库存下降不再延续。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083116/E5AAAAD97CC58966_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083116/E5AAAAD97CC58966_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083116/E5AAAAD97CC58966_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083116/E5AAAAD97CC58966_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-soybean-arrivals", "title": "第 35 周国内大豆到港约 220.35 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T08:23:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 92, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "统计周期": "2026 年第 35 周（8 月 22 日至 28 日）", "国内全样本油厂大豆到港": "约 220.35 万吨", "折合船数": "33.9 船", "区域船数": { "华东及沿江": "11.4 船", "山东及河南": "6.0 船", "广东": "5 船", "华北及西北": "4.5 船", "东北": "2.5 船", "广西": "2.5 船" }, "较前周": "来源页摘要未披露可核验的环比数值" }, "transmission_chain": [ "第 35 周国内全样本油厂到港约 220.35 万吨，增加后续可压榨大豆供给。", "到港对原料供应的补充方向偏空，但来源页未披露环比数值，因此只给出弱方向评分。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续实际到港明显低于本期跟踪量，或到港延误导致供应补充不及预期。", "豆粕需求同步增加并吸收新增压榨原料，供应压力未传导至库存。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083116/3E2B0AD220EA2BF0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083116/3E2B0AD220EA2BF0_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083116/3E2B0AD220EA2BF0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083116/3E2B0AD220EA2BF0_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-monthly-crush", "title": "8 月国内大豆压榨量为 1012.1 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T09:09:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "统计月份": "2026 年 8 月", "全国油厂大豆压榨量": "1012.1 万吨", "较上月": "减少 10.5 万吨", "统计样本": "国内动态全样本油厂" }, "transmission_chain": [ "8 月全国油厂大豆压榨量较 7 月减少 10.5 万吨，豆粕产出端的月度供给增量收窄。", "压榨量下降对豆粕供应偏利多，但月度数据只描述 8 月平均状态，不能替代盘中现货变化。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "9 月压榨量重新高于 8 月，且增量明显超过本期减少量。", "豆粕库存继续上升，表明压榨收缩未转化为现货供应收紧。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/D25B101CAC728F5F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/D25B101CAC728F5F_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/D25B101CAC728F5F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/D25B101CAC728F5F_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-huabei-operations", "title": "8 月 31 日华北油厂开机率为 85.45%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T09:55:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 91, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "统计日期": "2026-08-31", "华北油厂开机率": "85.45%", "开机状态": "天津中粮、京粮、九三、邦基及黄骅嘉吉恢复或维持开机；秦皇岛金海、三河汇福双线运行", "停机状态": "天津达孚预计停机至 9 月 1 日；唐山中储粮停机", "成交量": "来源页摘要未披露可核验数值" }, "transmission_chain": [ "华北油厂开机率达到 85.45%，区域压榨运行强度较高。", "较高开机率通常增加豆粕产出供应，因来源页未给出可核验的成交量和前一日开机率，本事件只计供应端弱利空。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "天津达孚、唐山中储粮等停机持续并带动区域开机率明显回落。", "区域提货或成交快速增加，吸收高开机率带来的豆粕产出。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/B52ACC8FBC69D00C_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/B52ACC8FBC69D00C_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/B52ACC8FBC69D00C_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/B52ACC8FBC69D00C_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-eastchina-operations", "title": "华东开机率 62.56%，豆粕成交增至 1.45 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T09:51:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "统计日期": "2026-08-31", "华东油厂开机率": "62.56%", "华东开机量": "6.75 万吨", "豆粕总成交": "1.45 万吨", "较上一交易日": "增加 1.33 万吨", "停机油厂": "张家港达孚、南京邦基等" }, "transmission_chain": [ "华东开机率为 62.56%，同时豆粕成交量较上一交易日增加 1.33 万吨至 1.45 万吨。", "开机增加偏向扩大供应，成交回升偏向改善需求，两个方向相反，因此该区域数据对豆粕 ETF 给出中性信号。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "成交量回落且开机率维持高位，需求对供应的抵消消失。", "开机率快速下滑并伴随成交继续放量，区域信号转向偏紧。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/11CE7137733F28F9_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/11CE7137733F28F9_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/11CE7137733F28F9_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/11CE7137733F28F9_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-guangdong-operations", "title": "广东开机率 61.25%，豆粕成交 6000 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T09:33:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "统计日期": "2026-08-31", "广东油厂开机率": "61.25%", "油厂豆粕总成交量": "6000 吨", "粤西现货成交价格": "3210—3220 元/吨", "东莞现货价格": "3240 元/吨", "较上一交易日": "来源页仅表述现货价格上调，未披露涨幅金额" }, "transmission_chain": [ "广东油厂开机率为 61.25%，当日豆粕成交量为 6000 吨，粤西现货成交价为 3210—3220 元/吨。", "开机率对应供应，成交量与现货价格对应需求和现货承接；来源页未提供完整前日对比数值，因此该区域信号暂定中性。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "广东开机率上升且成交量下降，供应压力方向得到确认。", "广东开机率下降而成交量继续放大，区域现货偏紧方向得到确认。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/3801D8BF65E62B0E_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/3801D8BF65E62B0E_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/3801D8BF65E62B0E_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083117/3801D8BF65E62B0E_abc.html))", "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090108/3CCF7314EE6F7512_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090108/3CCF7314EE6F7512_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090108/3CCF7314EE6F7512_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090108/3CCF7314EE6F7512_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260831-shandong-spot-volume", "title": "山东豆粕主流成交价 3210 元成交 2.15 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-01T00:40:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "统计日期": "2026-08-31", "山东 43%豆粕现货价格": "持平", "主流成交价": "3210 元/吨", "成交量": "2.15 万吨", "日照现货价格": "3190—3200 元/吨", "青岛现货价格": "3210 元/吨" }, "transmission_chain": [ "山东 43%豆粕现货主流成交价为 3210 元/吨且较前一交易日持平，成交量为 2.15 万吨。", "价格未变而成交量提供了区域流动性证据，现货端暂未显示新的价格方向，因此对豆粕 ETF 给出中性信号。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "主流成交价向上突破 3210 元/吨并伴随成交放量。", "主流成交价跌破 3210 元/吨或成交量明显收缩。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090108/090C98E38A643E31_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090108/090C98E38A643E31_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090108/090C98E38A643E31_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090108/090C98E38A643E31_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]