8月31日09时：区域库存与豆粕现货快照

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"mysteel-cn-20260828-national-weekly-pickup", "title": "8 月 24 日至 28 日全国豆粕提货增至 102.94 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-28T09:58:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "统计期": "2026-08-24 至 2026-08-28", "全国豆粕提货量": "102.94 万吨", "上周全国豆粕提货量": "101.94 万吨", "周度变化": "增加 1.00 万吨", "区域变化": "东北提货量增加 2.18 万吨，增幅最大" }, "transmission_chain": ["全国周度提货量较上周增加 1.00 万吨，终端提货保持增长", "提货增加对豆粕现货需求形成边际支撑，但总量变化小于成交量变化"], "invalidation_conditions": ["后续提货量回落至低于本周水平", "库存或现货成交数据显示终端需求同步走弱"], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[mysteel.com/a/26082817/1721CCEDC8298EDC_abc.html](https://ncp.mysteel.com/a/26082817/1721CCEDC8298EDC_abc.html)](https://mysteel.com/a/26082817/1721CCEDC8298EDC_abc.html](https://ncp.mysteel.com/a/26082817/1721CCEDC8298EDC_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260828-huabei-inventory", "title": "截至 8 月 28 日华北豆粕库存增至 10.03 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T00:55:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -2, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "统计日": "2026-08-28", "样本": "华北 9 家油厂", "大豆库存": "93.30 万吨，环比增加 1.60 万吨，同比增加 12.40 万吨", "豆粕库存": "10.03 万吨，环比增加 0.36 万吨，同比增加 2.78 万吨", "未执行合同": "32.30 万吨，环比减少 16.70 万吨" }, "transmission_chain": ["华北大豆库存环比增加 1.60 万吨，豆粕库存环比增加 0.36 万吨", "未执行合同减少 16.70 万吨，库存增加与订单覆盖下降同时出现，短期供应压力偏高"], "invalidation_conditions": ["下一期华北豆粕库存环比下降", "未执行合同重新增加并改善库存的订单覆盖"], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083108/9A360D9DC1FFFAF0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083108/9A360D9DC1FFFAF0_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083108/9A360D9DC1FFFAF0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083108/9A360D9DC1FFFAF0_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260828-guangxi-morning-report", "title": "广西豆粕现货涨 10 元且库存增至 14 万吨", 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"2026-08-28", "东莞现货价格": "3180-3200 元/吨", "湛江现货价格": "3200-3220 元/吨", "油厂总成交量": "7000 吨", "现货价格变化": "持稳" }, "transmission_chain": ["广东现货价格维持在东莞 3180-3200 元/吨、湛江 3200-3220 元/吨区间", "7000 吨成交量提供有限需求支撑，价格持稳使区域方向信号保持中性"], "invalidation_conditions": ["广东现货价格出现明确上调或下调并伴随成交量变化", "后续成交量显著偏离本次 7000 吨"], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083108/130395E58E6F28FB_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083108/130395E58E6F28FB_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083108/130395E58E6F28FB_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083108/130395E58E6F28FB_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260828-eastchina-morning-report", "title": "华东油厂开工率为 63.95%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T00:42:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "统计日": "2026-08-28", "油厂开工率": "63.95%", "开机量": "6.90 万吨" }, "transmission_chain": ["华东油厂开工率为 63.95%，开机量为 6.90 万吨", "较高的压榨运行水平意味着豆粕供应持续释放，区域现货供给压力偏向增加"], "invalidation_conditions": ["华东开工率下降并伴随开机量减少", "区域库存下降且现货成交持续放量"], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26083108/2328F26B6C2D092A_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083108/2328F26B6C2D092A_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26083108/2328F26B6C2D092A_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26083108/2328F26B6C2D092A_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260828-two-lakes-morning-report", "title": "两湖豆粕主流成交 3250 元但总成交为零", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T00:42:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "统计日": "2026-08-28", "武汉现货价格": "3240-3260 元/吨", "岳阳现货价格": "3270 元/吨", "主流成交价": "3250 元/吨", "总成交量": "0 吨", "油厂开机率": "54%" }, "transmission_chain": ["两湖主流成交价为 3250 元/吨，但总成交量为 0 吨", "现货报价存在而实际成交为零，区域需求对价格的支撑有限"], 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