9月3日09时：USDA对华销售与区域开机信号

[ { "event_id": "usda-us-20260902-china-soybean-sale", "title": "USDA 披露对华销售 202000 吨新季大豆", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": null, "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "统计日期": "2026-09-02", "公告日期": "2026-09-02", "销售量": "202000 公吨大豆", "交付市场": "中国", "市场年度": "2026/2027", "来源": "美国农业部海外农业服务局（USDA FAS）", "时间说明": "原始公告仅披露日期，未披露具体发布时间" }, "transmission_chain": [ "USDA 称，私人出口商报告在本次报告期内销售 202000 公吨大豆，目的地为中国，交付年度为 2026/2027 市场年度。", "对华新季采购增加了美豆出口需求的已确认订单，先作用于大豆成本端，再通过进口成本和压榨利润影响豆粕估值；豆粕 ETF 短线信号偏正。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "USDA 后续修正本笔销售数量、目的地或市场年度。", "后续出口销售数据明显走弱，或国内供应压力抵消新增订单的成本支撑。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-105](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-105)](https://fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-105](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-105))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260903-weekly-export-sales-release", "title": "USDA 周度出口销售报告定于今晚 2030 发布", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-03T12:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": null, "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "计划发布日期": "2026-09-03", "计划发布时间": "北京时间 2026-09-03 20:30", "报告范围": "包括大豆、豆粕及豆粕相关出口销售", "当前状态": "截至北京时间 09:00 尚未发布本期数字", "来源": "美国农业部海外农业服务局（USDA FAS）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "USDA 发布日程显示，周度出口销售报告在美国东部时间 9 月 3 日 08:30 发布，折算为北京时间 9 月 3 日 20:30。", "报告尚未发布，因此当前不预设销售方向；发布后的大豆和豆粕销售数字将成为当日晚间成本与需求信号。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "USDA 调整本期报告发布日期或发布时间。", "报告发布后实际覆盖范围不含大豆或豆粕出口销售。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/weekly-export-sales-302](https://www.fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/weekly-export-sales-302)](https://fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/weekly-export-sales-302](https://www.fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/weekly-export-sales-302))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260902-northchina-crush-rate", "title": "华北油厂开机率达 90%但成交为零", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T00:40:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 91, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-02", "区域": "华北", "油厂开机率": "90%", "现货价格区间": "3250—3350 元/吨", "豆粕成交量": "0 吨", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "时间说明": "详情页发布时间为北京时间 2026-09-03 08:40，数据回顾上一工作日" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 早报显示，华北上一工作日开机率为 90%，现货价格在 3250—3350 元/吨，油厂成交为 0 吨。", "高开机与零成交并存，说明供应释放速度高于当日现货承接；在其他条件不变时，对豆粕现货基差和豆粕 ETF 形成短线压制。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续华北开机率明显下降或成交量恢复，改变供应宽松与需求疲弱的组合。", "同口径早报修正开机率、成交量或价格区间。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/DEE9B7EEC137F9EA_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/DEE9B7EEC137F9EA_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/DEE9B7EEC137F9EA_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/DEE9B7EEC137F9EA_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260902-eastchina-crush-rate", "title": "华东油厂开机率 69.51%开机量 7.50 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T00:42:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 92, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-02", "区域": "华东", "油厂开机率": "69.51%", "开机量": "7.50 万吨", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "时间说明": "详情页发布时间为北京时间 2026-09-03 08:42，数据回顾上一交易日" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 早报披露，华东上一交易日油厂开机率为 69.51%，开机量为 7.50 万吨。", "华东压榨维持较高运行水平，供应端仍有释放；该信号与美豆出口需求增加方向相反，因此豆粕 ETF 短线综合评分保持中性。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续华东开机率或开机量明显回落，供应释放假设失效。", "同口径报告修正本次开机率或开机量。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/527327A04696F0E5_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/527327A04696F0E5_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/527327A04696F0E5_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/527327A04696F0E5_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260902-sichuan-chongqing-crush-rate", "title": "川渝豆粕价格持稳，油厂开机率 53%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T00:55:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 89, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-02", "区域": "四川及重庆", "现货价格区间": "3280—3360 元/吨", "油厂开机率": "53%", "价格变化": "持稳", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "时间说明": "详情页发布时间为北京时间 2026-09-03 08:55，数据回顾昨日" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 早报显示，川渝豆粕现货价格持稳于 3280—3360 元/吨，油厂开机率为 53%。", "价格未变而开机率处于区域统计值，现货暂未给出新的方向性突破；豆粕 ETF 该区域信号暂取中性。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续川渝现货价格出现可核验的同向大幅变动。", "同口径报告修正开机率或价格区间。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/1F170B7A264CC41B_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/1F170B7A264CC41B_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/1F170B7A264CC41B_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/1F170B7A264CC41B_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260902-two-lakes-crush-rate", "title": "两湖现货 3280 至 3310 元成交 2100 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T00:46:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 89, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-02", "区域": "两湖", "现货价格区间": "3280—3310 元/吨", "价格变化": "稳中下调", "油厂成交量": "2100 吨", "油厂开机率": "67%", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "时间说明": "详情页发布时间为北京时间 2026-09-03 08:46，数据回顾上个交易日" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 早报显示，两湖上个交易日现货价格稳中下调至 3280—3310 元/吨，油厂成交 2100 吨，开机率 67%。", "价格回落与成交量有限同时出现，需求承接偏弱而供应仍在运行，对豆粕 ETF 形成短线偏空信号。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续两湖成交量明显放大并伴随现货价格回升。", "同口径报告修正价格区间、成交量或开机率。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/E0B9CEBA8E5C9C44_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/E0B9CEBA8E5C9C44_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/E0B9CEBA8E5C9C44_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/E0B9CEBA8E5C9C44_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260902-northeast-crush-rate", "title": "东北成交 8000 吨，开机率为 61.95%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T00:42:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-02", "区域": "东北", "成交量": "8000 吨", "成交价格区间": "3350—3360 元/吨", "油厂开机率": "61.95%", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "时间说明": "详情页发布时间为北京时间 2026-09-03 08:42，数据回顾前一日" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 早报披露，东北前一日油厂成交 8000 吨，成交价 3350—3360 元/吨，开机率 61.95%。", "有成交但价格区间未显示明显突破，需求与供应信号暂未形成单边方向；豆粕 ETF 评分保持中性。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续东北现货价格或成交量出现可核验的明显同向变化。", "同口径报告修正成交量、价格区间或开机率。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/DDAB582E4359998F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/DDAB582E4359998F_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/DDAB582E4359998F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/DDAB582E4359998F_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260902-fujian-crush-rate", "title": "福建现货 3270 元成交为零，开机率 43.97%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T00:44:00Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 89, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-02", "区域": "福建", "现货价格": "3270 元/吨", "成交量": "0 吨", "油厂开机率": "43.97%", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "时间说明": "详情页发布时间为北京时间 2026-09-03 08:44，数据回顾上一交易日" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 早报显示，福建上一交易日豆粕现货价格为 3270 元/吨，成交 0 吨，开机率 43.97%。", "零成交显示现货承接不足，虽然开机率不高，但当前需求信号偏弱，对豆粕 ETF 形成短线偏空提示。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续福建成交恢复并伴随现货价格上涨。", "同口径报告修正价格、成交量或开机率。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/7DF05DA0847DA155_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/7DF05DA0847DA155_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/7DF05DA0847DA155_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/7DF05DA0847DA155_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260902-shandong-spot-volume", "title": "山东现货主流成交价 3250 元成交 3.20 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T00:37:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 91, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-02", "区域": "山东", "现货价格变化": "43%豆粕现货价格上调", "主流成交价": "3250 元/吨", "总成交量": "3.20 万吨", "成交价格区间": "日照 3250—3270 元/吨", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "时间说明": "详情页发布时间为北京时间 2026-09-03 08:37，数据回顾上一交易日" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 早报显示，山东上一交易日 43%豆粕现货价格上调，主流成交价 3250 元/吨，总成交 3.20 万吨，日照成交区间为 3250—3270 元/吨。", "现货价格上调且成交量达到 3.20 万吨，区域承接强于零成交市场，对豆粕基差和豆粕 ETF 形成短线支撑。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续山东同口径现货报价回落，或成交量明显收缩。", "同口径报告修正价格、成交量或价格变化方向。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/6F397258197F7A90_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/6F397258197F7A90_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/6F397258197F7A90_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/6F397258197F7A90_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260902-guangdong-spot-volume", "title": "广东现货 3240 至 3260 元成交 4000 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T00:45:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 89, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-02", "区域": "广东", "现货价格变化": "持稳", "东莞现货价格区间": "3240—3260 元/吨", "湛江现货价格区间": "3250—3260 元/吨", "成交量": "4000 吨", "供给状态": "部分工厂库存压力较大并停机", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）", "时间说明": "详情页发布时间为北京时间 2026-09-03 08:45，数据回顾上个交易日" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 早报显示，广东上个交易日现货价格持稳，东莞价格为 3240—3260 元/吨，湛江为 3250—3260 元/吨，成交 4000 吨。", "现货稳定和有限成交提供局部承接，但部分工厂库存压力较大并停机，需求支撑与供应压力并存，豆粕 ETF 方向暂取中性。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续广东现货价格或成交量出现明显同向变化。", "库存压力缓解或扩大，改变停机与供应压力的判断。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/3507AB10FE75235F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/3507AB10FE75235F_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/3507AB10FE75235F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090308/3507AB10FE75235F_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" } ]