9月4日09时：USDA对华大豆销售与国内高开机并存

[ { "event_id": "usda-cn-20260903-soybean-sale", "title": "USDA 披露对华销售 19.2 万吨大豆", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 100, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "报告主体": "美国农业部海外农业局（USDA FAS）", "销售品种": "大豆", "目的地": "中国", "销售数量": "192000 公吨", "交付营销年度": "2026/2027", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-03（页面未给出具体时刻）", "来源": "USDA FAS Export Sales to China" }, "transmission_chain": [ "USDA FAS 披露，私人出口商报告了面向中国、交付于 2026/2027 营销年度的 192000 公吨大豆销售。", "对华新增采购先抬升美国大豆出口需求预期，再通过进口原料补库预期影响豆粕供需；对豆粕 ETF 短线方向形成偏正信号。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "USDA 修正销售数量、目的地或交付营销年度。", "后续官方数据确认该销售取消，或国内豆粕需求未出现跟随。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-107](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-107)](https://fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-107](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-107))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260903-weekly-export-sales-published", "title": "USDA 周度出口销售报告于 9 月 3 日发布", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 100, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "报告日期": "2026-09-03", "报告名称": "Weekly Export Sales", "覆盖品种": "包括大豆、豆粕及豆油等品种", "分品种数据": "页面仅提供报告入口，未在正文展示大豆或豆粕分品种数值", "报告入口": "Export Sales Query System", "来源": "USDA FAS" }, "transmission_chain": [ "USDA FAS 确认本周出口销售报告已发布，报告覆盖大豆和豆粕等品种，但当前公开页面未呈现分品种数值。", "报告发布本身确认外部需求数据窗口已更新；在取得具体分品种数字前，豆粕 ETF 方向取中性。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "USDA 更正报告日期、覆盖范围或报告入口状态。", "官方报告页面补充分品种数据后，本事件由具体数字事件替代。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-09032026](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-09032026)](https://fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-09032026](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-09032026))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260903-national-crush-sales", "title": "9 月 3 日全国豆粕成交 10.75 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T10:15:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "全国主要油厂豆粕成交": "10.75 万吨", "较前一交易日": "页面摘要显示“增 3”，完整增量单位和数值未在公开正文中呈现", "天津现货": "3260 元/吨，持稳", "山东现货": "3240 元/吨，跌 10 元/吨", "江苏现货": "3240 元/吨，涨 20 元/吨", "广东现货": "3240 元/吨，跌 10 元/吨", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-03 18:15（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露 9 月 3 日全国主要油厂豆粕成交 10.75 万吨，并列出天津、山东、江苏和广东的现货价格及日变化。", "成交量提供了终端采购活动的当日截面，但公开摘要未完整呈现环比增量，因此不单独给出方向判断。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "Mysteel 修正全国成交量或四地现货价格变化。", "后续完整统计披露的前一交易日对比与当前摘要不一致。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090318/9B0BB8934645AEDE_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090318/9B0BB8934645AEDE_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090318/9B0BB8934645AEDE_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090318/9B0BB8934645AEDE_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260904-chuan-yu-crush-rate", "title": "川渝开机率 53%日压榨 1.33 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:57:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "川渝", "43%豆粕现货区间": "3280-3360 元/吨", "重庆贸易商报价": "3300-3350 元/吨", "四川贸易商报价": "3360-3400 元/吨", "油厂开机率": "53%", "日压榨量": "1.33 万吨", "较前一交易日": "现货价格上调，页面未给出开机率环比数值", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-04 08:57（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 早报显示，川渝上一交易日 43%豆粕现货区间为 3280-3360 元/吨，油厂开机率 53%，日压榨量 1.33 万吨。", "现货价格上调与区域压榨持续并存，价格信号偏强但供给端仍在运行，因此对豆粕 ETF 取中性。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "Mysteel 修正川渝现货区间、开机率或日压榨量。", "后续川渝现货回落且开机率同步上升。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/E0D6DE3C2F5D44B4_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/E0D6DE3C2F5D44B4_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/E0D6DE3C2F5D44B4_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/E0D6DE3C2F5D44B4_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260904-guangxi-spot-up", "title": "广西主流成交价 3300 元涨 40 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:46:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "广西及云贵", "广西油厂主流成交价": "3300 元/吨", "广西主流成交价较前一日": "上涨 40 元/吨", "广西贸易商主流成交价": "3220-3230 元/吨", "广西贸易商价格较前一日": "上涨 10 元/吨", "云南昆明市场主流价": "3360 元/吨", "云南昆明价格较前一日": "上涨 20 元/吨", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-04 08:46（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露广西油厂主流成交价 3300 元/吨，较前一日上涨 40 元；贸易商主流成交价上涨 10 元，昆明市场主流价上涨 20 元。", "广西与昆明现货报价同步上移，区域现货端形成偏强信号，对豆粕 ETF 盘中方向偏正。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "广西或昆明同口径报价回落。", "Mysteel 修正现货价格或日环比变化。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/7CB475757D8C2D22_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/7CB475757D8C2D22_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/7CB475757D8C2D22_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/7CB475757D8C2D22_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260904-guangxi-crush-rate", "title": "广西开机率约 45%且现货成交 7000 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:46:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "广西及云贵", "广西油厂现货成交": "7000 吨", "广西地区油厂开机率": "约 45%", "昆明益海": "停机且无成交", "较前一交易日": "本期报告更新上一交易日成交与开机状态，未给出开机率环比数值", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-04 08:46（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露上一交易日广西油厂现货成交 7000 吨、地区开机率约 45%，昆明益海停机且无成交。", "广西仍有压榨运行，昆明停机与区域成交并存，供给和需求信号相互抵消，因此对豆粕 ETF 取中性。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "Mysteel 修正广西成交量、开机率或昆明停机状态。", "后续广西开机率与成交量出现同向、持续的显著变化。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/7CB475757D8C2D22_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/7CB475757D8C2D22_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/7CB475757D8C2D22_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/7CB475757D8C2D22_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260904-fujian-crush-rate", "title": "福建开机率 43.97%且成交为 0", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:45:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "福建", "43%豆粕现货": "3280 元/吨", "油厂成交": "0 吨", "油厂开机率": "43.97%", "开机工厂": "福清长德、漳州中纺、泉州福海、厦门中禾、福清集佳", "停机工厂": "长乐元成、福清康宏", "较前一交易日": "报告更新上一交易日现货、成交和开机状态，未给出开机率环比数值", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-04 08:45（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露福建上一交易日 43%豆粕现货 3280 元/吨，油厂成交 0 吨，开机率 43.97%。", "成交归零而仍有部分工厂开机，显示区域采购承接偏弱、供给仍在释放，对豆粕 ETF 方向形成偏空约束。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "福建成交恢复并伴随现货价格上调。", "Mysteel 修正成交量或开机率。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/F98837F6458317A5_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/F98837F6458317A5_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/F98837F6458317A5_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/F98837F6458317A5_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260904-huabei-crush-rate", "title": "华北开机率 82.73%且成交 7000 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:44:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "华北", "豆粕现货区间": "3250-3330 元/吨", "油厂成交": "7000 吨", "油厂开机率": "82.73%", "较前一交易日": "报告更新上一工作日现货区间、成交和开机率，未给出开机率环比数值", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-04 08:44（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露华北上一工作日豆粕现货区间 3250-3330 元/吨，油厂成交 7000 吨，开机率 82.73%。", "较高开机率与出货压力同时出现，供给端压力强于成交端支撑，对豆粕 ETF 方向形成偏空约束。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "华北开机率下降且成交量持续回升。", "Mysteel 修正现货区间、成交量或开机率。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/E01A80B37099152F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/E01A80B37099152F_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/E01A80B37099152F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/E01A80B37099152F_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260904-guangdong-crush-status", "title": "广东油厂成交 5000 吨且多厂停机", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:44:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 92, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "广东", "东莞现货区间": "3250-3280 元/吨", "湛江现货区间": "3280-3300 元/吨", "油厂总成交": "5000 吨", "成交价": "3300 元/吨", "工厂状态": "嘉吉南北厂、阳江、富之源、潮州益海和中储粮开机；新沙、产业园、植之元、南天和湛江渤海停机或计划停机", "较前一交易日": "报告更新上一交易日现货、成交和工厂状态，未给出成交量环比数值", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-04 08:44（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露广东东莞现货 3250-3280 元/吨、湛江 3280-3300 元/吨，油厂总成交 5000 吨、成交价 3300 元/吨，区域多家工厂停机或计划停机。", "成交量偏低且库存压力导致部分停机，现货报价上调与需求疲弱并存，对豆粕 ETF 取偏空。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "广东成交量持续放大并带动现货区间上移。", "Mysteel 修正现货区间、成交量或工厂状态。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/7763116FE499BD35_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/7763116FE499BD35_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/7763116FE499BD35_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/7763116FE499BD35_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260904-lianghu-crush-rate", "title": "两湖开机率 54%且成交为 0", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:44:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "两湖", "武汉现货区间": "3300-3320 元/吨", "岳阳现货区间": "3290-3300 元/吨", "油厂总成交": "0 吨", "油厂开机率": "54%", "较前一交易日": "报告称上个交易日现货价格上调，未给出价格上调金额", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-04 08:44（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露两湖上一交易日武汉现货 3300-3320 元/吨、岳阳 3290-3300 元/吨，油厂总成交 0 吨，开机率 54%。", "现货价格上调但成交归零，区域需求承接弱于报价表现；在供给继续运行的背景下，对豆粕 ETF 方向形成偏空约束。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "两湖成交恢复并持续放量。", "Mysteel 修正现货区间、成交量或开机率。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/04DAC24A755EE38E_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/04DAC24A755EE38E_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/04DAC24A755EE38E_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/04DAC24A755EE38E_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260904-eastchina-crush-rate", "title": "华东开工率 69.51%开机量 7.50 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:43:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "华东", "油厂开工率": "69.51%", "开机量": "7.50 万吨", "工厂状态": "张家港东海、泰州汇福、泰兴邦基、张家港达孚、扬中中海、泰州益海、镇江中储粮、南通嘉吉、连云港益海、舟山良海、宁波金光、芜湖益海和上海东辰开机；南京邦基、舟山中海和巢湖中粮停机", "较前一交易日": "报告更新上一交易日开工率和开机量，未给出环比数值", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-04 08:43（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露华东上一交易日油厂开工率 69.51%，开机量 7.50 万吨，多家工厂保持开机。", "华东压榨供给维持较高水平，终端以刚需补库为主，供给信号对豆粕 ETF 方向形成偏空约束。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "华东开工率和开机量连续下降。", "Mysteel 修正开工率、开机量或工厂状态。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/34CDED94CF185C43_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/34CDED94CF185C43_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/34CDED94CF185C43_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/34CDED94CF185C43_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260904-northeast-crush-rate", "title": "东北开机率 61.95%日压榨 29300 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:41:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "东北", "豆粕成交": "0 吨", "成交价区间": "3340-3380 元/吨", "油厂开机率": "61.95%", "日压榨量": "29300 吨", "工厂状态": "营口、盘锦、沈阳、长春、大连单线和丹东工厂开机", "较前一交易日": "报告更新前一日成交、价格、开机率和压榨量，未给出开机率环比数值", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-04 08:41（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露东北前一日成交 0 吨，成交价 3340-3380 元/吨，开机率 61.95%，日压榨量 29300 吨。", "成交归零与多厂开机并存，现货报价和供给信号方向相反，因此对豆粕 ETF 取中性。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "东北成交恢复并持续放量，或开机率明显下降。", "Mysteel 修正成交量、价格区间、开机率或日压榨量。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/58CF2C01826336B0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/58CF2C01826336B0_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/58CF2C01826336B0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/58CF2C01826336B0_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260904-shandong-crush-trade", "title": "山东成交 5.80 万吨开机率 64.89%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:40:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "山东", "日照现货区间": "3240-3250 元/吨", "青岛现货价": "3260 元/吨", "油厂主流成交价": "3280 元/吨", "总成交": "5.80 万吨", "现货成交": "1.70 万吨", "远月成交": "4.10 万吨", "日度压榨量": "56000 吨", "开机率": "64.89%", "占全国比例": "20.34%", "较前一交易日": "现货价格稳中下调，页面未给出区间下调金额", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-04 08:40（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露山东日照现货 3240-3250 元/吨、青岛 3260 元/吨，主流成交价 3280 元/吨；总成交 5.80 万吨，其中现货 1.70 万吨、远月 4.10 万吨，日压榨量 56000 吨、开机率 64.89%。", "成交总量较高但远月成交占比约 70.69%，同时区域压榨保持运行且现货稳中下调，现货供给压力对豆粕 ETF 方向形成偏空约束。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "山东现货止跌回升，且现货成交占比持续扩大。", "Mysteel 修正成交结构、日压榨量或开机率。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/8BA32D97C3FA23F6_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/8BA32D97C3FA23F6_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/8BA32D97C3FA23F6_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090408/8BA32D97C3FA23F6_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" } ]