9月1日11时：北京提价，沿海偏强，泰兴基差持稳

[ { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260901-coastal-basis", "title": "沿海一口价偏强，M2701 报 3362 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-01T02:13:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 78, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "统计日期": "2026-09-01", "市场": "沿海主流市场", "连粕合约": "M2701", "连粕价格": "3362 元/吨", "一口价": "偏强", "基差": "震荡调整" }, "transmission_chain": [ "我的钢铁 10:13 详情页显示，沿海豆粕一口价偏强，连粕 M2701 报 3362 元/吨，基差处于震荡调整状态。", "一口价偏强与近月合约价格走强共同改善豆粕现货端的即时支撑预期，豆粕 ETF 盘中信号偏正；页面未披露成交量，信号强度有限。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "沿海一口价转弱，或 M2701 价格回落并抹去本次强势表现。", "后续基差继续走弱且现货成交未能跟上报价。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090110/F374FFE098B962C5_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090110/F374FFE098B962C5_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090110/F374FFE098B962C5_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090110/F374FFE098B962C5_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260901-beijing-sanhe-spot-up", "title": "北京三河汇福 43%豆粕报价上调 20 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-01T02:24:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "统计日期": "2026-09-01", "市场": "北京", "油厂": "北京三河汇福", "品种": "43%豆粕现货", "较前一日变化": "上调 20 元/吨", "绝对价格": "未披露", "成交量": "未披露" }, "transmission_chain": [ "北京三河汇福 43%豆粕现货报价较前一日上调 20 元/吨，区域挂牌价格出现上行变化。", "现货报价上调提高豆粕近月价格的承接预期，对豆粕 ETF 形成弱支撑；详情页未披露绝对价格和成交量，信号仍需其他区域报价验证。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "北京报价回落并抹平本次 20 元/吨涨幅。", "其他主要区域现货报价普遍转弱，或现货上调没有成交配合。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090110/368A1EF80ED77E8E_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090110/368A1EF80ED77E8E_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090110/368A1EF80ED77E8E_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090110/368A1EF80ED77E8E_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260901-taixing-basis", "title": "泰兴邦基 M2701+30、M2705+20 基差持稳", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-01T02:48:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 92, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "统计日期": "2026-09-01", "市场": "泰兴", "油厂": "泰兴邦基", "10 月至次年 1 月合约": "M2701+30 元/吨", "2027 年 5 月至 7 月合约": "M2705+20 元/吨", "报价变化": "保持平稳" }, "transmission_chain": [ "泰兴邦基 10 月至次年 1 月合约报 M2701+30 元/吨，2027 年 5 月至 7 月合约报 M2705+20 元/吨，详情页明确称报价保持平稳。", "近月与远月基差同时维持原报价，区域基差没有提供新的方向增量，豆粕 ETF 信号保持中性；页面未披露成交量。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "泰兴邦基后续将 M2701+30 元/吨或 M2705+20 元/吨基差调整至新的报价。", "华东现货成交明显转弱，导致稳定基差失去现货端支撑。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090110/CCAE24E958C87AE6_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090110/CCAE24E958C87AE6_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090110/CCAE24E958C87AE6_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090110/CCAE24E958C87AE6_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]