9月3日13时：现货上调与全国基差走弱并存

[ { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260903-sichuan-spot-up", "title": "四川三家油厂豆粕报价均涨 30 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T03:01:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "四川", "品种": "43%豆粕", "成都中储粮报价": "3390 元/吨", "广汉益海报价": "3390 元/吨", "彭山中粮报价": "3390 元/吨", "较前一日变化": "三家均上涨 30 元/吨", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-03 11:01（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露四川三家油厂 43%豆粕报价均为 3390 元/吨，较前一日均上涨 30 元/吨。", "同区域多家报价同步上调，说明四川现货报价端出现一致性偏强信号；在其他条件不变时，豆粕 ETF 盘中方向偏正。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "四川同口径报价回落，或后续成交未能跟随价格上升。", "Mysteel 修正报价或涨跌金额。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/7F1332602E204A6B_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/7F1332602E204A6B_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/7F1332602E204A6B_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/7F1332602E204A6B_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260903-chongqing-spot-up", "title": "重庆两家油厂豆粕报价上涨 20 至 30 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T03:01:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "重庆", "品种": "43%豆粕", "江津益海报价": "3340 元/吨", "江津益海较前一日变化": "上涨 20 元/吨", "重庆一德报价": "3310 元/吨", "重庆一德较前一日变化": "上涨 30 元/吨", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-03 11:01（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露江津益海 43%豆粕报价 3340 元/吨、上涨 20 元/吨，重庆一德报价 3310 元/吨、上涨 30 元/吨。", "重庆两家油厂报价重心同步上移，区域现货端形成偏强信号；若该变化扩散至其他市场，豆粕 ETF 盘中方向偏正。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "重庆报价回落，或两家油厂后续报价变化方向出现分化。", "Mysteel 修正报价或涨跌金额。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/E556596186CE0145_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/E556596186CE0145_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/E556596186CE0145_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/E556596186CE0145_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260903-northeast-spot-up", "title": "东北四家豆粕报价上涨 10 至 30 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T03:31:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "东北", "品种": "43%豆粕", "营口益海报价及变化": "3370 元/吨，涨 10 元", "盘锦汇福报价及变化": "3360 元/吨，涨 10 元", "盘锦中储粮大片报价及变化": "3550 元/吨，涨 30 元", "长春九三报价及变化": "3390 元/吨，涨 30 元", "持平报价": "大连九三 3340 元/吨、丹东九三 3330 元/吨、铁岭九三 3360 元/吨", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-03 11:31（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露东北营口益海和盘锦汇福分别报 3370 元/吨和 3360 元/吨，均涨 10 元；盘锦中储粮大片和长春九三分别报 3550 元/吨和 3390 元/吨，均涨 30 元。", "区域内上涨报价多于持平报价，但仍有三家油厂未变价；东北现货信号整体偏强但并非全面上调，豆粕 ETF 盘中方向偏正。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "东北上涨报价回落，或持平油厂扩大为多数并压低区域报价重心。", "Mysteel 修正任一报价或涨跌金额。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/CD50494A3C5CAED6_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/CD50494A3C5CAED6_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/CD50494A3C5CAED6_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/CD50494A3C5CAED6_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260903-qingdao-bohai-spot-up", "title": "青岛渤海现货报价 3290 元上涨 30 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T03:51:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "青岛", "油厂": "青岛渤海", "品种": "43%豆粕", "现货报价": "3290 元/吨", "现货较前一日变化": "上涨 30 元/吨", "10 月提货合同报价": "3330 元/吨", "10 月提货合同较前一日变化": "上涨 30 元/吨", "46 蛋白加价": "150 元/吨", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-03 11:51（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露青岛渤海 43%豆粕现货报价 3290 元/吨，较前一日上涨 30 元；10 月提货合同报 3330 元/吨，同样上涨 30 元。", "现货和近月提货合同同步上调，青岛市场的近端报价支撑较清晰；该局部信号对豆粕 ETF 盘中方向偏正。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "青岛渤海现货或 10 月合同报价回落。", "其他沿海市场基差继续走弱并抵消青岛的局部支撑。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/312E5D7A42B21C78_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/312E5D7A42B21C78_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/312E5D7A42B21C78_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/312E5D7A42B21C78_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260903-huabei-spot-stable", "title": "华北三家豆粕报价均持平于 3260 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T03:53:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "华北", "品种": "43%豆粕", "天津九三报价": "3260 元/吨", "北京汇福报价": "3260 元/吨", "黄骅嘉好报价": "3260 元/吨", "较前一日变化": "三家均持平", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-03 11:53（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露天津九三、北京汇福和黄骅嘉好 43%豆粕报价均为 3260 元/吨，较前一交易日持平。", "华北三家主流油厂没有继续调价，区域现货暂未提供新的方向增量；该事件对豆粕 ETF 盘中方向取中性。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "三家主流油厂出现可核验的同向调价。", "Mysteel 修正报价或持平状态。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/43BE6B7CC63E8EDA_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/43BE6B7CC63E8EDA_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/43BE6B7CC63E8EDA_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/43BE6B7CC63E8EDA_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260903-guangdong-spot-up", "title": "广东三家豆粕报价均涨 30 元至 3280 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T03:54:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "区域": "广东", "品种": "43%豆粕", "东莞嘉吉报价": "3280 元/吨", "东莞中储粮报价": "3280 元/吨", "东莞达孚报价": "3280 元/吨", "较前一日变化": "三家均上涨 30 元/吨", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-03 11:54（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 披露广东东莞嘉吉、东莞中储粮和东莞达孚 43%豆粕报价均为 3280 元/吨，较前一日均上涨 30 元/吨。", "广东三家主流油厂同步上调，华南现货报价端出现一致性偏强信号；在沿海其他市场不继续走弱的前提下，豆粕 ETF 盘中方向偏正。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "广东三家报价回落，或沿海基差继续下跌并覆盖现货上涨信号。", "Mysteel 修正报价或涨跌金额。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/2716E519101559FF_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/2716E519101559FF_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/2716E519101559FF_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090311/2716E519101559FF_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260903-national-basis-down", "title": "全国主要市场豆粕基差多数下跌", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T04:05:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -2, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "数据日期": "2026-09-03", "统计范围": "全国主要市场", "山东日照基差": "-170，下跌 60 元/吨", "广西防城港基差": "-170，下跌 10 元/吨", "天津基差": "-140，下跌 40 元/吨", "河北沧州基差": "-140，下跌 40 元/吨", "江苏南通基差": "-160，下跌 30 元/吨", "广东湛江基差": "-120，持平", "福建厦门基差": "-80，持平", "云南昆明及吉林长春": "基差在-10 至-20 区间，小幅下跌", "页面发布时间": "2026-09-03 12:05（北京时间）", "来源": "我的钢铁网（Mysteel）" }, "transmission_chain": [ "Mysteel 全国汇总显示，日照和防城港基差均为-170，日照下跌 60 元、防城港下跌 10 元；天津和沧州为-140，均下跌 40 元；南通为-160，下跌 30 元。湛江-120 和厦门-80 持平。", "主要产区基差普遍走弱，说明现货相对近月合约的定价承接偏弱；该全国横向信号对豆粕 ETF 形成短线偏空约束。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "主要市场基差止跌并出现可核验的普遍修复。", "Mysteel 修正基差绝对值或涨跌幅度。" ], "source_urls": ["[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26090312/6AFA78D87468E1F3_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090312/6AFA78D87468E1F3_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26090312/6AFA78D87468E1F3_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26090312/6AFA78D87468E1F3_abc.html))"], "source_tier": "B" } ]