Bend, Eugene and St. George clear the spread screen; all three still WAIT (2026)

No verified city or state short-term-rental rule change published between August 23 and August 30 cleared this week's source check. The operational weather is still restrictive in the places that matter: Bend has a costly permit stack and spacing rule; St. George confines stays under 28 days to designated areas; Eugene's public registration route currently fails to expose the underlying rule. The appropriate response is paperwork before furniture.

Bend, Eugene, and St. George all pass the first revenue screen at 60% occupancy. Each model below also remains positive after a $5,000 startup note is amortized over 24 months at 12%. The three cities are WAIT markets for a first lease because public proof of a profitable local operator with three or more units remains unavailable, and every address still needs written approval from its city and landlord.

The screen at a glance

AirDNA's figures cover Airbnb, Vrbo, and Booking.com listings. Its pages were updated August 25, 2026. Bend and Eugene meet the 100,000-person screen with 103,390 and 179,591 residents in the available 2024 American Community Survey compilation; Utah's state population page supplies the city-estimate route for St. George, which is about 109,000 residents. 1 2 3 4 5

City	Population	2BR rent input	AirDNA ADR / observed occupancy	60% room-revenue screen	Traffic light
Bend, OR	103,390	$2,150 6	$321 / 53% 1	$5,778 > $2,903	Yellow
Eugene, OR	179,591	$1,575 7	$190 / 51% 2	$3,420 > $2,126	Yellow
St. George, UT	about 109,000	$1,900 proxy 8	$268 / 52% 3	$4,824 > $2,565	Yellow

The revenue screen is ADR multiplied by 18 nights. The rent threshold is 1.35 times monthly rent. This gate asks whether the room revenue can carry rent before the rest of the operating stack begins. It leaves out cleaning, utilities, insurance, permit costs, and financing. A market that clears the gate can still fail at the individual-building level: landlord consent, a prohibited zone, an unpriced inspection, or a weak winter booking month each changes the cash outcome. The full P&L below answers the first part of that problem; the city sections identify the address-level conditions that follow.

One common 2BR model

Each case uses a 30-day month, 18 booked nights, a 2.5-night average stay, and 7.2 turnovers. The model adds a $110 cleaning charge per turnover and the identical $110 cleaning cost, so cleaning is a pass-through rather than hidden income. It applies a 15.5% host-only platform fee to room and cleaning revenue. Utilities plus internet are $380; supplies and liability cover are $150. Permit reserves reflect the difficulty of each city path rather than a quoted fee. The $235 note payment is the monthly payment on a $5,000, 24-month, 12% example. Those items are underwriting assumptions; obtain quotes before committing.

Monthly P&L at 60% occupancy	Bend	Eugene	St. George
Room revenue	$5,778	$3,420	$4,824
Guest cleaning charges	$792	$792	$792
Platform fee, 15.5%	-$1,018	-$653	-$870
Long-term rent	-$2,150	-$1,575	-$1,900
Utilities + internet	-$380	-$380	-$380
Cleaning labor	-$792	-$792	-$792
Supplies + liability cover	-$150	-$150	-$150
Permit reserve	-$350	-$50	-$100
Example startup note	-$235	-$235	-$235
Cash flow after note	+$1,495	+$377	+$1,189

At 50% occupancy, with six turnovers and $110 of guest cleaning per turn, the same models produce about +$702 in Bend, -$84 in Eugene, and +$530 in St. George. Eugene's narrower margin needs an ordinary-lease or 30-plus-day fallback from day one. A one-point change in booked nights moves room revenue by the listed ADR: $321 in Bend, $190 in Eugene, and $268 in St. George before the related platform fee. Public AirDNA pages show observed occupancy of 53%, 51%, and 52%; none supplies a defensible month-by-month trough for this issue. Treat the 50% case as the operating reserve test.

1. Bend: strong revenue, expensive permission

AirDNA records 5,092 active listings, $51.3K average annual revenue, a $321 ADR, and 53% occupancy in Bend. A $2,150 average two-bedroom rent still leaves room for the full model, even after a large permit reserve. 1 6

Where to test:

Downtown / Old Bend edge: test a unit with a walkable guest experience and documented parking. This is the first address screen because Bend's rules focus heavily on the property, permit type, and nearby STRs.
Eastside near St. Charles: test only where a landlord accepts written STR permission. A Furnished Finder listing near St. Charles Hospital gives the area a mid-term positioning lead; it is a supply signal, not a booking forecast. 9

Regulation: Yellow. Bend requires a Short Term Rental Land Use Permit and an annual operating license. A whole-house Type II permit needs 500 feet of separation from other permitted whole-house STRs. The City lists a Type II permit fee of $3,657.44 plus surcharge, a $350 initial operating license, annual renewal charges, a whole-house transportation supplement, and 10.4% room tax. Read Bend Development Code 3.6.500 and Bend Code Chapter 7.16 before offering a deposit. 10

The margin funds the permit friction, but it does not erase it. A signed lease is premature until the permit map confirms the separation rule, the city identifies the permit type, and the owner authorizes advertising and guest turnover.

First 90 days: Days 1-15: give Planning the exact address, request the permit type and separation result in writing, and obtain landlord consent. Days 16-30: budget the permit fees, insurance, room-tax registration, and fire-safety paperwork. Days 31-60: furnish after the application is accepted; list the unit for both nightly and 30-plus-day stays. Days 61-90: compare booked nights with the 53% market signal and keep the 50% reserve funded.

Safe to start in the next 30 days? WAIT. Bend's model is attractive, while the permit sequence, cost, and spacing check belong ahead of the lease.

2. Eugene: the model clears, the city answer is incomplete

Eugene has 2,039 active listings, $30.4K trailing annual revenue, a $190 ADR, and 51% occupancy. The market's 60% room-revenue screen clears the rent threshold, while the complete model relies on the cleaning pass-through and leaves only $377 after the startup note. 2 7

Where to test:

Downtown / University corridor: test buildings with written rules on guest stays, parking, and common-area use. The location can serve visiting families, university traffic, and extended professional stays.
Springfield-facing hospital corridor: compare a quiet two-bedroom close to medical employment with a downtown unit. A Furnished Finder two-bedroom listing markets itself as close to hospitals, which is an MTR supply signal rather than proof of demand. 11

Regulation: Yellow, pending written confirmation. The City route surfaced during research as a registration lead, but the public registration address returned a missing-page response in this pass. The municipal-code route that appeared in search pointed to a traffic chapter rather than a short-term-rental rule. That mismatch prevents a reliable permit summary. Before a lease, email Eugene Code Compliance and Planning with the full address, unit type, intended stay length, landlord authorization, and parking plan; ask for the current registration form, fee, zoning treatment, tax filing process, and operative code section in writing. 12

The risk callout is administrative rather than seasonal: the model turns negative at 50% occupancy, and the city path has not yet been verified from an operative rule. A tenant who plans to start within 30 days needs a fallback that works at a monthly rate.

First 90 days: Days 1-15: secure a written city answer and landlord consent. Days 16-30: replace the $50 reserve with the actual registration, inspection, and tax cost. Days 31-60: furnish only after written clearance, then list a 30-plus-day option beside nightly inventory. Days 61-90: retain the nightly strategy only after the unit beats the 51% market reading and the 50% reserve case.

Safe to start in the next 30 days? WAIT. The cash-flow buffer is too thin for an operator to discover a permit restriction after signing.

3. St. George: high ADR inside a narrow zoning gate

St. George reports 1,272 active listings, $46.7K annual revenue, a $268 ADR, and 52% occupancy. The local rent input is a $1,900 proxy because Zillow exposed St. George as a nearby market on the Santa Clara rental page rather than a city two-bedroom series. The resulting model remains positive, while the rent input must be replaced by an exact two-bedroom quote. 3 8

Where to test:

Downtown / Utah Tech side: start with parcels where Planning confirms the designated-area rule. The objective is legal location first, visitor convenience second.
Hospital-accessible commercial or mixed-use areas: screen buildings where a 30-day guest can also work. Furnished Finder inventory near Intermountain Hospital supplies an MTR positioning lead, rather than occupancy evidence. 13

Regulation: Yellow. St. George's Code Enforcement page says short-term rentals are allowed only in designated areas and that stays under 28 days are prohibited in single-family zones. Read the city zoning code for the exact parcel and obtain a written zoning determination before agreeing to rent. 14

The market's ADR creates room for the cost stack. The zoning boundary is the deal boundary. A low-rent house in a single-family zone is a rejection, regardless of its spreadsheet result. The observed 52% occupancy also makes a seasonal reserve essential, because the public market page does not identify the lowest calendar month.

First 90 days: Days 1-15: submit the exact address to Planning for a designated-area determination and obtain landlord permission. Days 16-30: confirm the business-license, lodging-tax, parking, and occupancy rules with the city. Days 31-60: furnish only after the location clears; list 30-plus-day stays near the hospital alongside nightly dates. Days 61-90: hold a 50% occupancy reserve and remove the nightly listing if zoning, lease, or bookings fail the written underwriting.

Safe to start in the next 30 days? WAIT. St. George becomes a workable candidate only after the city confirms that the individual address sits in an allowed area.

The missing operator proof

The channel's hard screen also asks for a public, recent disclosure of a profitable operator running three or more units in each city. This run used a different path: current r/airbnb_hosts and r/realestateinvesting feeds, then broader city-and-portfolio web queries. The material surfaced generic hosting issues, portfolio counts without city profit, and property marketing. No source tied together the city, three or more units, explicit profit, and the past 12 months for Bend, Eugene, or St. George. Each city therefore remains a WAIT decision even with a positive spreadsheet.

Before a lease

Reject a prospective unit when one of these answers is missing:

Does the city confirm the use for this exact address and unit type in writing?
Does the lease explicitly permit advertising, short stays, and guest turnover?
Does the model survive 50% occupancy after rent, utilities, cleaning, insurance, permit costs, and financing?
Does the operator retain a 90-day reserve after deposit, furnishings, permits, and the first repair?
Does the unit have a credible 30-plus-day or ordinary-lease fallback?

Bend has the largest modeled cushion. St. George has the strongest ADR after the zoning gate. Eugene has the smallest margin and the largest unanswered compliance question. Close those address-level and peer-validation gaps before turning a rental application into a 12-month obligation.