Winston-Salem, Davenport and Akron: Positive Spreads, Three Reasons to Wait
This week's conservative STR arbitrage screen finds positive 60% occupancy spreads in Winston-Salem, Davenport, and Akron, but all three remain WAIT decisions until zoning, licensing, downside reserves, and operator validation are closed.
The regulation weather turned colder this week. On July 22, Stowe, Vermont approved new short-term-rental rules with an 850-unit cap, a near-freeze on new neighborhood rentals. On July 24, Arizona Capitol Times reported that Mohave County had reclassified more than 900 full-time short-term rentals from residential to commercial for property-tax assessment, a disputed assessor policy rather than a new statewide law. The signal is not that every secondary market is tightening. It is that a spreadsheet spread can be erased by a local classification, licensing, or zoning decision.
I found no verified city-specific STR change in Winston-Salem, Davenport, or Akron during the July 19-26 scan. That is not a legal opinion and it is not a green light.
This week's screen is deliberately conservative. AirDNA market figures were updated July 5, 2026; Zillow two-bedroom figures were retrieved July 25-26. I underwrite each city at a flat 60% occupancy, even when the current AirDNA market occupancy is higher or lower. The result is a lease-arbitrage model, not a property-purchase model: there is no mortgage because the operator is leasing the unit. Furnishing debt, income tax, and a manager's fee are not included and must be deducted from the result if they apply.
The short version
| City | Population reference | AirDNA ADR / occupancy | Zillow 2BR rent | 60% modeled net | Regulation | Start in 30 days? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winston-Salem, NC | 257,271 | $214 / 56% | $1,076 | +$1,152/mo | Yellow | Wait |
| Davenport, IA | 101,728 | $156 / 54% | $950 | +$379/mo | Yellow | Wait |
| Akron, OH | 189,691 | $137 / 61% | $995 | +$23/mo | Yellow | Wait |
All three clear the channel's initial spread screen:
ADR x 30.4 x 60% is greater than monthly rent x 1.35. That screen is necessary, not sufficient. Akron barely survives the full operating stack. Davenport survives at 60% but fails at 40%. Winston-Salem has the widest margin, but its citywide non-owner-occupied compliance path is the least explicit of the three.A hard-filter failure also remains: I did not find a clean, city-specific public disclosure published in the last 12 months showing an operator profitably running three or more units in any of these three cities. That does not prove there are no such operators. It means these are research candidates, not validated operator markets.
How the model works
The common assumptions are intentionally visible:
- 30.4 days per month and 18.24 booked nights at 60% occupancy.
- A four-night average stay, or 4.56 turnovers per month.
- $90 per turnover for cleaning. This is an underwriting assumption, not a quoted local cleaning rate.
- $275 per month for utilities, $75 for internet, $100 for STR insurance, $150 for maintenance reserve, and $60 for consumables.
- Airbnb's host-only fee assumption is 15.5%, using the platform's current service-fee guidance. Airbnb's fee explanation says most hosts pay 15.5% under that structure.
- Guest-facing lodging taxes are excluded from owner margin only when collected separately and remitted. If the platform does not collect them, or if the operator absorbs them, the numbers below are overstated.
- Winston-Salem has no separately verified city STR fee in this screen. Akron includes $250 for the annual STR certificate plus $25 for general rental registration, annualized to $23 per month. Davenport uses the city's published $60-per-year upper end of the rental-license range, annualized to $5 per month.
The P&L is therefore:
ADR x booked nights - Airbnb fee - rent - utilities - internet - cleaning - insurance - reserve - consumables - annualized city fees.1. Winston-Salem: the only comfortable margin
Snapshot: AirDNA reports 1,176 active listings, $214 ADR, 56% occupancy, roughly $17,000 average annual revenue, and an AirDNA market score of 94. Zillow's Winston-Salem market page puts the average two-bedroom apartment at $1,076 per month. The Census Bureau's July 1, 2025 QuickFacts estimate is 257,271 residents. AirDNA market data | Zillow rental trend | Census QuickFacts
Screen math: At 60% occupancy, the revenue proxy is $3,903 per month. Rent times 1.35 is $1,453. The spread test passes at 2.69x. That ratio is attractive, but it is driven by the $214 ADR; one weak pricing strategy or an inferior address will compress it quickly.
Modeled monthly P&L:
| Line item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross room revenue: $214 x 18.24 nights | $3,903 |
| Airbnb host fee, 15.5% | -$605 |
| Long-term rent | -$1,076 |
| Utilities and internet | -$350 |
| Cleaning: $90 x 4.56 turns | -$410 |
| Insurance, maintenance reserve, consumables | -$310 |
| Modeled operating cash flow | +$1,152 |
Two submarkets to test:
- Downtown / Innovation Quarter: the urban core offers the cleanest first test for medical, university, and business demand; price against actual nearby listings rather than the city average.
- Ardmore / medical-center corridor: the hospital corridor gives you a credible 30-day-plus fallback if nightly demand softens. The Travel Nurse Housing Winston-Salem search showed 467 furnished rentals and 251 available when checked, a directional supply signal rather than occupancy data.
Regulation traffic light: Yellow. The official city material I could verify is specific, not broad: Winston-Salem's ADU FAQ says an ADU can be used as a short-term rental and listed on Airbnb or VRBO. That does not establish that every leased two-bedroom apartment is cleared for nightly use. The city maintains a Unified Development Ordinance page; read the UDO-CC15 ADU amendment and the current use table for the exact address. Confirm zoning, building-code occupancy, fire-safety requirements, tax registration, and landlord permission in writing before signing.
Risk callouts: The biggest risk here is not a visible cap. It is false certainty from an incomplete rule path. A landlord can prohibit subletting even if zoning is permissive. A neighborhood can become a complaint hotspot before a city adds a dedicated STR ordinance. AirDNA supplied annual occupancy and a seasonality score, but not a monthly trough in the evidence set, so I will not invent a collapse month. Underwrite a 40% occupancy case: the same P&L falls to about +$189 per month before furnishing debt and tax leakage.
First 90 days: Days 1-7: get a written lease addendum, address-level zoning confirmation, a local STR insurance quote, and a fire-safety walk-through. Days 8-30: furnish one unit only, build the listing around a hospital/business traveler profile, and launch a 30-day-plus channel alongside Airbnb. Days 31-60: compare booked-night ADR, cleaning cost, and complaint count against the original model; do not add a second lease if the first four turnovers do not support the assumed $90 cleaning cost. Days 61-90: hold a six-month operating reserve, then decide whether the margin still works after actual utilities, supplies, and tax administration.
30-day answer: WAIT. The economics say investigate now. The compliance evidence does not yet say sign now.
2. Davenport: positive math, address-level zoning gate
Snapshot: AirDNA reports 320 active listings, $156 ADR, 54% occupancy, roughly $14,500 average annual revenue, and a $72 RevPAR. Zillow's Davenport market page reports a $950 average two-bedroom rent. The Census Bureau's population reference is 101,728. AirDNA market data | AirDNA seasonality page | Zillow rental trend | Census QuickFacts
Screen math: The 60% revenue proxy is $2,845 per month. Rent times 1.35 is $1,283. The spread test passes at 2.22x. The full model leaves $379 before guest taxes, startup financing, and management.
Modeled monthly P&L:
| Line item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross room revenue: $156 x 18.24 nights | $2,845 |
| Airbnb host fee, 15.5% | -$441 |
| Long-term rent | -$950 |
| Utilities and internet | -$350 |
| Cleaning: $90 x 4.56 turns | -$410 |
| Insurance, maintenance reserve, consumables | -$310 |
| City rental license, annualized at $60 | -$5 |
| Modeled operating cash flow | +$379 |
Two submarkets to test:
- Downtown / riverfront: use this as the event, business, and river-activity comp set; check parking and noise exposure unit by unit.
- Village of East Davenport: test the historic retail and river corridor separately from downtown because guest intent, building stock, and parking can differ materially.
Regulation traffic light: Yellow. Davenport's current code is clear about the gate even when it is not a blanket Airbnb approval. Section 17.08.010 says a structure or land may be used only for a permitted or special use in the zoning district, and that a use not included in the matrix and not interpretable as part of a listed use is prohibited. The same chapter points operators to Table 17.08-1 and Section 17.08.030. Separately, the City rental-property license page states that rental property must be licensed and that the annual cost ranges from $30 to $60 based on the inspection cycle.
The practical reading is not "Davenport is automatically legal." Ask the zoning administrator to classify the exact apartment use in writing, confirm whether the unit is treated as a bed-and-breakfast, transient lodging, or another listed use, and complete the rental-property license and inspection path. Get the landlord's STR consent before paying for furniture.
Risk callouts: The thin point is occupancy, not ADR. At 40% occupancy, this same cost stack is about -$286 per month. A cleaning quote above $90, a security deposit that is not recoverable, or a parking complaint can use up the 60% cushion. The AirDNA evidence set does not include a month-by-month trough; do not market this as a year-round event market without checking twelve months of comparable listings.
The MTR fallback is real enough to test but not proof of demand: Travel Nurse Housing Davenport showed 66 furnished rentals and 30 available when checked. That is a platform count, not an occupancy rate. Use it to test a 30-day-plus listing, not to claim that nurses will fill the calendar.
First 90 days: Days 1-7: obtain the zoning classification and license checklist before signing. Days 8-30: furnish one unit with durable, mid-term-friendly furniture and a desk; launch both nightly and 30-day-plus versions only after the lease permits both. Days 31-60: hold nightly pricing above the modeled floor and track parking, noise, and cleaning incidents. Days 61-90: move weak weekdays toward mid-term stays rather than buying more inventory. Add a second unit only if the 40% case is survivable with reserve capital.
30-day answer: WAIT. Davenport is a credible underwriting candidate, but the ordinance makes the address-level use classification non-negotiable.
3. Akron: passes the screen, fails the comfort test
Snapshot: AirDNA reports 606 active listings, $137 ADR, 61% occupancy, roughly $17,400 average annual revenue, $78 RevPAR, and a market score of 95. Zillow reports a $995 average two-bedroom rent. The Census Bureau's July 1, 2025 estimate is 189,691 residents. AirDNA market data | Zillow rental trend | Census QuickFacts
Screen math: The 60% revenue proxy is $2,499 per month. Rent times 1.35 is $1,343. The top-line spread passes, but the full modeled cash flow is only about $23 per month after the visible operating costs.
Modeled monthly P&L:
| Line item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross room revenue: $137 x 18.24 nights | $2,499 |
| Airbnb host fee, 15.5% | -$387 |
| Long-term rent | -$995 |
| Utilities and internet | -$350 |
| Cleaning: $90 x 4.56 turns | -$410 |
| Insurance, maintenance reserve, consumables | -$310 |
| STR certificate and general registration, annualized | -$23 |
| Modeled operating cash flow | +$23 |
Two submarkets to test:
- Downtown / University of Akron: a logical first comp set for university, medical, and event demand, but do not extrapolate downtown ADR to every residential block.
- Highland Square / West Akron: test this separately for neighborhood demand, parking, and complaint sensitivity; the right building matters more than the neighborhood label.
Regulation traffic light: Yellow. Akron's official rental-registration page defines a rental unit as a dwelling or rooming unit not occupied by the person with legal title, requires annual registration by January 31, and lists a $25-per-unit fee plus a late fee. A 2022 Akron Beacon Journal report reported a separate annual STR registration certificate, a $250 application fee, front-entry display, and a 5.5% Summit County lodging excise tax. Read Ordinance 291-2022 through the city's current registration process and confirm that a tenant-run, non-owner-occupied arbitrage unit is accepted before signing. The official general registration page is not a substitute for that confirmation.
Risk callouts: Akron's current 61% market occupancy makes the 60% hurdle look reasonable, but the margin is only $23. At 50% occupancy, the same model is about -$260 per month; at 40%, it is about -$544. The 2022 report also documents the city's stated interest in safety, complaints, and tax collection. The current public evidence did not provide a clean monthly seasonality trough, so the correct risk response is reserve capital, not a made-up low season.
The mid-term signal is stronger than a simple STR bet: Furnished Finder's Akron page showed 127 furnished rentals and 63 available when checked. That is supply, not demand, but it supports testing traveling-professional positioning before adding nightly inventory.
First 90 days: Days 1-7: verify the certificate, general registration, tax account, insurance, and written lease permission. Days 8-30: do not spend the full startup budget; furnish only after the city and landlord checks clear. Days 31-60: launch a 30-day-plus listing aimed at medical and professional stays alongside a conservative nightly listing. Days 61-90: require actual booked-night data to beat the 60% case before considering a second unit. If the first unit cannot show a reserve-funded path through a 50% month, stop.
30-day answer: WAIT. Akron is a positive spreadsheet result, not a positive business result.
What would change the ranking?
Winston-Salem is the only candidate with a meaningful cushion at both 60% and 40% occupancy. Davenport is next, but its code demands a written address-level use answer. Akron is last because the observed market occupancy is doing almost all of the work.
The next diligence package should contain four items before any lease is signed:
- A written landlord addendum that expressly permits Airbnb, VRBO, and 30-day-plus stays.
- An address-level zoning and permit answer from the city, not a host forum or an SEO guide.
- A local insurance quote and a 90-day cash reserve that survives the 40% case.
- A real comp set from the target building or immediate submarket, including weekday pricing, cleaning fees, and a month-by-month occupancy view.
The three cities are worth calling, not worth blindly leasing. This week's answer is wait in all three markets until the compliance and operator-validation gaps close.
Sources and method
Market data: AirDNA Winston-Salem, AirDNA Davenport, and AirDNA Akron. Long-term rent: Zillow Winston-Salem, Zillow Davenport, and Zillow Akron. Population: the linked U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts pages above.
Regulation and tax: Stowe regulation report, Mohave County classification report, Winston-Salem UDO page, Akron rental registration, Akron STR rule report, Davenport Section 17.08.010, and Davenport rental-property license.
The model is a screening tool. It does not include furnishing purchases, financing, income tax, platform tax treatment, management labor, vacancy beyond the stated occupancy, or the cost of a bad lease. Those omissions are reasons to preserve cash, not reasons to round the result upward.
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