Peoria, Rockford and Macon pass the 60% screen; only Peoria has room to breathe (2026)

Richardson, Texas, tightened its short-term-rental rules this week. The new rules took effect at the end of August after a temporary pause on new registrations: a new STR must sit at least 500 feet from an existing STR, and the annual registration fee rose from $100 to $300. The City Council passed the changes on August 10. 1

That is the weather around this business: a spread can survive a bad month; a new distance rule can strand a lease. This week's screen finds positive modeled cash flow in Peoria, Rockford, and Macon, but the evidence supports three different levels of caution. Peoria has room for an ordinary operating mistake. Rockford needs occupancy close to its current market level. Macon has almost no room at all. All three receive WAIT for a lease signed within the next 30 days because public operator validation and address-level approvals remain incomplete.

The screen

AirDNA pages for all three markets were updated September 5, 2026, with data through August 2026. Zillow's rental-manager pages were updated September 4, 2026. Population figures below are approximate, Census-derived figures reported by public city-profile sources; the population number is a sizing filter, not a revenue input. 2 3 4

City	Approx. population	AirDNA ADR / occupancy	Zillow 2BR rent	Regulation	Modeled monthly net at 60%
Peoria, AZ	199,924	$246 / 59%	$1,795	Yellow: permit and tax path	+$1,019
Rockford, IL	147,521	$164 / 67%	$1,200	Yellow: owner permit and registry	+$357
Macon, GA	157,358	$127 / 58%	$975	Yellow: annual permit and tax certificate	+$44

Peoria's population figure comes from the public city profile at City-Data's Peoria profile. Rockford's figure comes from the Illinois city-population table used in the market screen. Macon's figure is the 2020 Census count reported for Macon in the City Population profile. The market figures come from the linked AirDNA and Zillow pages. 5 6 7

One model for all three

The comparison uses a 30-day month and an underwriting case of 18 booked nights, or 60% occupancy. An average stay of 2.5 nights produces 7.2 cleanings. Each stay carries a $110 cleaning charge and $110 of cleaning labor. The cleaning charge is treated as pass-through revenue before Airbnb's 15.5% host-only fee, so the model does not pretend cleaning revenue is profit. The model also includes $380 for utilities and internet, $150 for supplies and liability reserve, and approximately $235 for a $5,000 startup note amortized over 24 months at 12% APR. Permit and registration reserves are underwriting assumptions, not quoted municipal fees.

AirDNA's initial spread test is simple: ADR multiplied by 18 must exceed 1.35 times the Zillow two-bedroom rent. Peoria produces $4,428 in room revenue against a $2,423 hurdle. Rockford produces $2,952 against $1,620. Macon produces $2,286 against $1,316. The hurdle is a filter. The P&L below is the decision model.

Peoria, Arizona

Snapshot. Peoria has about 199,924 residents. AirDNA reports 94 active listings, $42.7K in annual revenue, 59% occupancy, a $246 ADR, $145 RevPAR, a 43/100 market score, and a 54/100 seasonality score. Zillow reports a $1,795 median two-bedroom rent and 487 available rentals. 2 5

Submarkets to test. Start with the Peoria Sports Complex and Westgate-adjacent side of the city for event and entertainment access. Run a second search along the Loop 101 medical and employer corridor. These are screening areas, not automatic approvals: the address, zoning, HOA documents, and landlord consent still decide whether the lease works.

2BR monthly P&L at 60% occupancy.

Line	Amount
Room revenue: $246 × 18 nights	$4,428
Cleaning collected: $110 × 7.2 turns	+$792
Airbnb host fee: 15.5% × ($4,428 + $792)	-$809
Long-term rent	-$1,795
Cleaning labor: $110 × 7.2 turns	-$792
Utilities and internet	-$380
Supplies and liability reserve	-$150
Permit reserve	-$40
Startup-note payment	-$235
Modeled monthly cash flow	+$1,019

At 50% occupancy, the same assumptions produce about +$416. Peoria therefore has the strongest cushion in this set. AirDNA's 54/100 seasonality score still signals movement through the year; the public page does not expose a verified month-by-month trough, so a specific collapse month stays out of the model.

Regulation gate: YELLOW. Peoria's official business-license route says the city handles short-term-rental permitting through its finance and sales-tax pages. 8 A current secondary ordinance summary identifies Ordinance 2022-20 and City Code section 11-150, and reports a free city STR permit, $500,000 liability coverage, a 24-hour emergency contact, neighbor notification, and Arizona transaction-privilege-tax licensing. 9 Treat those details as a verification checklist rather than a substitute for the city's address-level answer. Read City Code §11-150 and the city's current permit instructions before paying a deposit. The official page was technically difficult to retrieve during this run, so written confirmation from Peoria staff belongs in the lease file.

Arizona transaction-privilege tax, insurance, emergency-contact duties, and any platform remittance arrangement affect cash timing. Guest taxes are liabilities, not operating income. A landlord who will not put STR use in writing is a failed deal even when the city permit path looks workable.

MTR signal. Peoria-specific Furnished Finder inventory was thin in the public search. Phoenix-area results are too broad to treat as Peoria demand. A traveling-nurse or corporate-rental test can still be useful around the medical and employer corridors, but the operator should list a unit and measure inquiries before relying on 30-day stays.

First 90 days. Days 1–15: get a written landlord addendum, a city address determination, HOA approval if applicable, an insurance quote, and the TPT path. Days 16–30: furnish only after the address clears; build the listing around two-night and seven-night demand while testing a 30-day furnished rate. Days 31–60: track booked nights, cleaning cost, fee leakage, and inquiry source every week. Days 61–90: hold the lease only if the unit still clears the 50% sensitivity after real utility and maintenance bills.

30-day answer: WAIT. The modeled spread is attractive, but the permit details need written address confirmation and the public operator-proof requirement remains open. Peoria becomes a conditional YES only after those two files exist.

Rockford, Illinois

Snapshot. Rockford has about 147,521 residents. AirDNA reports 391 active listings, $35.3K in annual revenue, 67% occupancy, a $164 ADR, $110 RevPAR, a 97/100 market score, and an 83/100 seasonality score. Zillow reports a $1,200 two-bedroom rent and 386 available rentals. 3 6

Submarkets to test. Screen downtown and the riverfront for walkable short stays and furnished monthly positioning. Screen the hospital corridor separately. A current Furnished Finder listing describes a two-bedroom unit near Rockford's riverfront walkway and bike path, while public local discussion points to hospital-area monthly rentals aimed at traveling nurses. Those pages show positioning and supply, not citywide occupancy. 10 11

2BR monthly P&L at 60% occupancy.

Line	Amount
Room revenue: $164 × 18 nights	$2,952
Cleaning collected: $110 × 7.2 turns	+$792
Airbnb host fee: 15.5% × ($2,952 + $792)	-$580
Long-term rent	-$1,200
Cleaning labor: $110 × 7.2 turns	-$792
Utilities and internet	-$380
Supplies and liability reserve	-$150
Registration reserve	-$50
Startup-note payment	-$235
Modeled monthly cash flow	+$357

At 50% occupancy, the model falls to approximately -$39. Rockford's current 67% market occupancy is doing much of the work; the 60% case is positive, while a modest demand miss turns the unit negative. AirDNA's 83/100 seasonality score warrants a monthly cash reserve, yet the public page does not provide a verified monthly trough.

Regulation gate: YELLOW. Rockford's official ordinance is unusually concrete. Section 17-101 requires a permit. Section 17-104 requires an owner-submitted application and annual renewal. Section 17-106 requires the unit to be entered in the city's rental registry. Section 17-108 requires notice to owners of abutting parcels before the first rental of each calendar year. 12

Section 17-112 limits occupancy to two people per bedroom, with a ten-person ceiling. Section 17-113 requires overnight parking on the same zoning lot and caps driveway or parking-area vehicles at four, with a narrow exception for up to two street or public-lot vehicles. Section 17-117 requires a local contact who is available around the clock, lives within 50 miles, and can reach the property within 60 minutes. Section 17-116 applies the city's hotel/motel tourism-tax rules. A violation can bring a $50–$750 fine per offense, and each continuing day counts separately under Section 17-121. Read Sections 17-101, 17-104, 17-106, 17-108, 17-112, 17-113, 17-116, 17-117, and 17-121 before signing.

First 90 days. Days 1–15: confirm the unit's zoning and registry path, obtain written landlord consent, document parking, and appoint a qualifying local contact. Days 16–30: submit the owner application and neighbor notices, then furnish for both weekend guests and hospital-area monthly tenants. Days 31–60: price a 30-day furnished offer against the short-stay calendar and maintain a separate reserve for the occupancy dip that the 50% case exposes. Days 61–90: keep the lease only if actual room revenue, taxes, repairs, and cleaning labor still leave a positive month.

30-day answer: WAIT. Rockford has a positive 60% model and a clear ordinance, but the $357 margin is fragile. The local-contact requirement also creates a real operating cost. An address-specific registry confirmation and a cash reserve large enough to absorb a 50% month are prerequisites.

Macon, Georgia

Snapshot. Macon has about 157,358 residents in the 2020 Census count used by the public city profile. AirDNA reports 319 active listings, $25K in annual revenue, 58% occupancy, a $127 ADR, $74 RevPAR, a 99/100 market score, and a 98/100 seasonality score. Zillow reports a $975 two-bedroom rent and 633 available rentals. 4 7

Submarkets to test. Test the Historic Downtown, Mercer, and Atrium Navicent corridor for a combined short-stay and furnished-medical strategy. Test North Macon as a separate drive-to-employer and medical option. Furnished Finder's Macon page shows meaningful visible furnished inventory and repeatedly names Atrium Navicent, Mercer, Piedmont, downtown, the Historic District, and traveling healthcare professionals. The page has inconsistent visible listing totals, so treat it as a supply and positioning signal rather than a demand count. 13

2BR monthly P&L at 60% occupancy.

Line	Amount
Room revenue: $127 × 18 nights	$2,286
Cleaning collected: $110 × 7.2 turns	+$792
Airbnb host fee: 15.5% × ($2,286 + $792)	-$477
Long-term rent	-$975
Cleaning labor: $110 × 7.2 turns	-$792
Utilities and internet	-$380
Supplies and liability reserve	-$150
Permit reserve	-$25
Startup-note payment	-$235
Modeled monthly cash flow	+$44

At 50% occupancy, the same unit loses approximately $258. Macon's 58% observed occupancy sits close to the 60% underwriting case, and the 98/100 seasonality score makes a month-by-month reserve essential. The public AirDNA page does not provide a verified monthly trough, so a particular weak month remains unpriced.

Regulation gate: YELLOW. Macon-Bibb Code Division 14.5 requires a business tax certificate and compliance before a dwelling can operate as an STVR under Section 7-372. Section 7-373 requires an annual application, owner and property information, a sworn code-compliance verification, proof of ownership, and proof of insurance. The permit holder's name and permit number must appear in every listing. Section 7-376 requires the permit to be posted inside and the unit to be maintained and regularly inspected. Section 7-377 sets fines at $500 for a first violation, $750 for a second violation within 12 months, and $1,000 for a third or later violation. Section 7-378 makes state sales tax and county taxes, including hotel/motel tax, the owner's responsibility. 14

The official permit instructions say there is no application or permit fee and that permits renew annually. The same document is marked revised December 2018, while other search material has displayed a $100 figure. The $25 reserve in this model is therefore a cushion, not a quoted current fee. Confirm the current charge with Business Development Services and the Tax Commissioner. Read Sections 7-372, 7-373, 7-376, 7-377, and 7-378, and obtain written confirmation that the address and lease structure qualify.

First 90 days. Days 1–15: request the current permit packet, confirm the business tax certificate and hotel-motel tax process, and obtain landlord permission in writing. Days 16–30: model a 30-day furnished rate before buying furniture; the thin short-stay margin makes a second revenue channel more than a marketing option. Days 31–60: launch only after insurance and code verification are complete, then track monthly inquiries from Atrium Navicent, Mercer, Piedmont, and corporate renters. Days 61–90: keep the unit only if furnished-monthly bookings or a lower rent restore a real buffer above the $44 base case.

30-day answer: WAIT. Macon passes the 60% arithmetic screen by $44 per month and fails the 50% sensitivity by $258. The permit-fee conflict, tax handling, and thin margin make a new arbitrage lease unsafe before written county confirmation and a tested MTR demand path.

Before any lease is signed

The three models use public market medians, not a promised result for a particular address. A prospective operator should complete the following file for the exact unit:

Written landlord permission for short-term and 30-day furnished use, including guest screening, insurance, and cancellation of the arrangement.
Written city or county address determination, permit or registry instructions, zoning answer, and any HOA or condominium approval.
A tax memo that identifies state, county, city, hotel, lodging, or transaction-privilege taxes and states what Airbnb remits versus what the operator remits.
A real insurance quote, local-contact plan, parking plan, cleaning bid, and replacement reserve.
A 50% occupancy case using actual rent, actual utilities, actual cleaning labor, and the exact permit cost.
Public proof from an operator in the same city that includes three or more units, explicit profit, and a date within the last 12 months.

The last item remains open for Peoria, Rockford, and Macon. Targeted searches across city-specific operator pages, public host communities, Facebook results, and exact phrases such as "three Airbnb properties," "portfolio," and "net profit" produced listings, sale posts, or generic advice. None tied all four proof elements together. Portfolio size alone is not profit evidence.

The public AirDNA pages also expose seasonality scores without the underlying month-by-month trough. This article names no invented collapse month. An operator should ask AirDNA for the monthly series or underwrite a cash reserve large enough to survive a weak quarter.

The plain conclusion is short: Peoria is the only candidate with meaningful modeled breathing room; Rockford is a narrow, execution-heavy deal; Macon is a wait-for-proof deal. The 60% screen finds opportunities. The lease file decides whether any of them is safe.