June 24: 14-week filing drought, a 40% rate shock, what you forfeit
The rate-filing drought just crossed 14 weeks — the longest quiet stretch of 2026 — as Michigan pushes two bills to ban price-optimization and mandate a 10% cut, State Farm's CEO publicly demands "proof" before honoring New York's reforms, and USAA's $500M Florida dividend flows to 830,000 members. Three near-qualified Reddit cases show what actually happens when you shop: a California driver absorbing a 40% Mercury rate hike discovers the Geico quote has a deductible trap; a Michigan household with excellent 250/500 limits learns the correct way to run a multi-carrier comparison; and a seven-year Geico customer preparing to leave uncovers what accident forgiveness is really worth on paper.
The rate-filing drought just crossed 14 weeks. None of the six major carriers — Geico, Progressive, State Farm, Allstate, Liberty Mutual, or USAA — submitted a new rate action across any of the 30-day window ending today. 1 Fourteen weeks is approximately 99 days. The last detectable major filing was around mid-March 2026.
What this means in practice runs slightly counterintuitive. Carriers sitting on $22.1 billion in Q1 2026 industry underwriting profit are not filing increases — they have no regulatory cover to do so in a softening market. And because they're competing aggressively for new-customer applications rather than processing adjustment filings, new-business underwriting has room to come in lower than renewal rates. If your policy auto-renewed in the past 90 days and you haven't compared quotes, that renewal absorbed a loyalty penalty the market doesn't require right now.
Rate climate: what's actually moving this week
The filing calendar is quiet. Three things are not.
Michigan is fighting on two legislative fronts simultaneously. Senate Bill 1013, sponsored by Sen. Jeremy Moss (D-Bloomfield), passed the Senate Economic and Community Development Committee with a unanimous vote on June 17. 2 The bill would codify a ban on price optimization — setting rates based on a policyholder's estimated willingness to pay rather than actual risk — into Michigan statute. The Michigan Department of Insurance already restricts it by bulletin; SB 1013 makes the restriction statutory. Sen. Moss described the practice as insurers exploiting "your shopping patterns to determine the highest rate you might be willing to pay." 2
A separate bill, SB 328 by Sen. Jeff Irwin (D-Ann Arbor), would mandate auto insurance premium reductions of at least 10% without reduced benefits. A Senate committee advanced SB 328 during the same week; the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) has publicly urged the Michigan Senate to oppose it. 3 Michigan drivers already pay $225/month on average for full coverage — among the five most expensive states nationally. 4 Two bills advancing simultaneously is political pressure, not a rate cut. The GOP-controlled House still has to act on both.
New York's reform faces carrier resistance. State Farm CEO Jon Farney, speaking at the S&P Global Ratings 42nd Annual Insurance Conference in Manhattan on June 23, became the first major carrier CEO to publicly express skepticism about New York's May 28 auto reform. "We want some proof before we move too hard [or] too fast there," Farney told the conference. 5 New York was not among the 40+ states where State Farm has already filed rate decreases. Farney was direct about why: "The New York market is a very tough market in auto insurance." He added: "We will probably be in the stature of let's see how this plays out rather than being too proactive. [We] just have had losses for a long time." 5 The reform is real, but it doesn't translate to lower rates until carriers decide it has actually reduced their loss costs. New York shoppers shouldn't wait for that signal — shop now with the reform as context, not as a done deal.
USAA's Florida dividend is actively paying out. USAA began distributing $500 million to approximately 830,000 eligible Florida auto policyholders on June 15. 6 The average payout runs about $760; more than a quarter of recipients get $1,000 or more. Florida policyholder Col. Jim Gowen received a $1,100 credit — "That's probably a quarter of my total insurance policies that I pay every year with them," he told News 6. 6 This is not a rate filing — it's a one-time distribution. But it reflects a Florida market that has genuinely softened: the state ranked first nationally for lowest personal auto liability loss ratio in 2025 at 52.5%, a 15-year low, and all five major carrier groups are showing a year-to-date indicated rate change of -8.0%.
Benchmark rates, for comparison: Insurify's national full-coverage average sits at $2,236/year ($186/month), unchanged since the June 11 update. 4 ValuePenguin's cheapest-carrier data for June 2026 shows American Family at $159/month full coverage, Travelers at $173/month, State Farm at $192/month, Geico at $187/month. 7 USAA, for eligible members, comes in at $125/month.
Case 1: Mercury Insurance → Geico, CA — a 40% rate shock and an imperfect escape
⚠️ Near-qualified case: deductible gap not equivalent — flagged below.
What's verified: u/Illbashyaheadinm8, a Van Nuys, California resident, has been with Mercury Insurance for 30 years through a local broker. Over the past year, their annual mileage increased from roughly 4,000 to 9,000 miles — driven by a combination of personal caregiving duties, church work, and freelance jobs during a slow stretch in the film industry. Mercury cited the mileage jump and raised the annual premium from $3,500 to $4,900, a 40% increase. The driver disputed the increase and provided a revised odometer reading and a breakdown of mileage usage, but the broker said only that Mercury would revisit in six months. 8
The driver found two quotes:
Loading content card…
| Carrier | Annual premium | Deductible | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury (current) | $4,900 | $1,000 | Active policy |
| Geico (quoted) | $3,500 | $2,000 | Quote only — not bound |
| Progressive (quoted) | $4,900 | Not disclosed | No savings vs. Mercury |
The Geico quote matches the old Mercury rate — but at double the deductible. The OP named the gap directly: "I found ALMOST the exact same policy with Geico (I had to choose a 2000 deductible vs a 1000 deductible I have now) for the 3500.00 I was paying Mercury before my mileage extravaganza!!!" 8
Why this case doesn't fully qualify — and what it still teaches. A $1,000 deductible gap is real money. On a collision claim for a vehicle worth $12,000, the Geico policy produces $1,000 less payout. That's not a clerical difference. This case is included as a near-qualified example because the coverage gap is identified and named — not because the switch is unambiguously sound.
What the driver should do before binding:
- Ask Geico to quote the same $1,000 deductible. The premium will be higher, but it establishes the true apples-to-apples comparison. The savings may still be substantial.
- Dispute the Mercury increase through the California DOI, not just the broker. California allows policyholders to challenge rate classifications with the Department of Insurance. A mileage correction — from estimated 9,000 down to actual verified usage — can be submitted formally.
- Run a Progressive quote at the $1,000 deductible to see if a third option exists below the $4,900 Mercury rate.
The broader pattern this case illustrates: mileage-based surcharges are among the most disputable items on a renewal. Carriers use annual mileage as a continuous rating factor, and the estimates they use are often based on prior declarations, not an odometer audit. If your driving patterns changed significantly, filing a corrected mileage affidavit with your carrier is the cheapest first step — before shopping.
Case 2: Michigan two-vehicle household, $290/month — shopping framework
⚠️ Near-qualified case: switch not yet completed; included as a shopping-approach illustration.
What's verified: u/Sea-Anything-3393, a 28-year-old Michigan driver, pays approximately $290/month for two vehicles — a 2003 Toyota Camry and a 2014 Honda Civic. Before adding a 21-year-old brother who has one minor speeding ticket (5 mph over), the premium was roughly $85/month. The OP is actively shopping for a better rate. 9
The policy details are unusually complete — rare for a Reddit post. Full coverage: bodily injury 250/500, property damage 100, UM/UIM 250/500, $500 deductible on both comprehensive and collision, broadened collision, PIP per schedule, roadside assistance. No rental coverage. 9
Community response was instructive. u/Ironicpancakes led with: "First off, props to you for the liability limits. Always good to see someone taking that seriously. I've seen low limits exceeded more times than I can count and that's when the letters from the lawyers start rolling in." 9 The same commenter warned against comparison websites: they "farm data to every agency paying for internet leads" and produce "incessant calling." The recommendation was to call highly-rated carriers directly or use a local independent agent.
At $290/month for two vehicles with a young added driver in Michigan (state average: $225/month), this household is paying above average — but not dramatically, given the added driver's surcharge. What the OP should do:
- Get quotes directly from State Farm, Travelers, and Auto-Owners (which operates in Michigan). These are standard-market carriers that will respect the existing liability limits without pressure to cut them.
- Use an independent agent. u/1234568654321: "In my experience, mom and pop shops are the best to work with. Their agency is their livelihood, so they typically work hard to earn and keep your business." 10 An independent agent with access to 8–12 carriers can run the household's complete profile — both vehicles, both drivers — and find the carrier where that combination rates best.
- Don't reduce BI/PD limits to hit a lower number. Michigan's no-fault PIP provides medical coverage, but liability limits are your protection against a lawsuit from the other driver. Cutting 250/500 down to 50/100 is not a solution; it's a different level of coverage being presented as a cheaper version of the same thing.
Case 3: Geico → Progressive switch — the coverage you lose that doesn't appear on the quote
⚠️ Near-qualified case: no premiums or savings amount disclosed; included as a coverage-consideration case.
What's verified: u/MomsNewBoyfriend69 has been with Geico for seven years and is preparing to switch to Progressive. The driver's concern was whether keeping renters insurance with Geico would preserve the auto tenure — and thus the accident forgiveness earned over seven years. 11
The answer from r/Insurance commenters was precise: accident forgiveness is attached to the auto policy, not the account. Cancel the Geico auto policy and the accident forgiveness disappears. u/melllow-yelllow: "No. If or when you go back to Geico for auto coverage, you'll be considered a new customer for that line of business. Those loyalty perks won't apply and you'll have to build them back up." 11
What does survive: the tenure on file for bundle discounts. If the driver keeps renters insurance with Geico, that history still counts toward future multi-policy pricing — but only for discounts on the non-auto line, not for accident forgiveness restoration. u/Sam_At_Insurify noted that some carriers restore loyalty perks faster if you return within a defined window, but that's carrier-specific and not guaranteed. 11
This case belongs here because accident forgiveness is a real dollar figure that doesn't appear on any quote. After one at-fault accident, Geico's standard rate increase for a driver with clean prior history is typically 40–55%. Accident forgiveness eliminates that increase — once. For a driver paying $1,200/year, that's $480–$660 in protection per at-fault incident. Before switching from any carrier after five or more years of continuous coverage, ask specifically: does this policy include accident forgiveness, and what is that forgiveness currently worth in dollar terms?
The four-step pre-flight checklist
Run all four steps before requesting any quote.
Step 1 — Pull your credit score. Credit-based insurance scoring applies in 46 states. California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Michigan restrict or ban it. Insurify's June 2026 data shows a 46% premium gap between excellent-credit and poor-credit drivers on identical profiles. 4 If your credit score has improved meaningfully in the past 18 months, you may now qualify for a lower pricing tier at carriers that weight credit heavily — Geico and Travelers consistently rank at the top of that list. Run your score before quoting; don't compare rates across different assumptions.
Step 2 — Lock your current coverage spec. Pull the declarations page. Write down every coverage line: bodily injury per person and per accident, property damage, UM/UIM limits, comprehensive and collision deductibles, and any endorsements. The Mercury/Geico case this week shows exactly why: a $1,000 deductible difference looks like the same coverage on the surface. A quote that changes your UM/UIM from 100/300 to 25/50 is not a cheaper version of the same insurance. It's less insurance. Know what you have before comparing.
Step 3 — Confirm continuous coverage documentation. A lapse of 30 or more days raises your risk tier at most carriers. The PA driver who rear-ended a car after their policy lapsed without realizing it faces $7,500 in out-of-pocket damage, a license suspension, a registration suspension or $500 penalty, and a minimum $300 fine. 12 Bind the new policy first. Cancel the old one after confirmation. Never the other way around.
Step 4 — Quote the entire household, not one vehicle. Multi-car discounts typically run 10–25%. Moving one car out of a three-vehicle household can strip the multi-car discount from the policies left behind — producing a net premium increase. Before moving any vehicle, get a full household quote at the new carrier. Also note what Allstate shoppers discovered this week: a three-vehicle quote of ~$3,000 that became $3,700 at binding — with a credit card surcharge added last-minute — is a reminder that you should ask explicitly whether the quoted rate reflects a completed underwriting review (MVR pull, CLUE report, VIN inspection). 13 Until those checks are complete, the quote is an estimate.
Quote-shopping path by life stage
25-year-old single driver. National full-coverage average: $196/month. Progressive's Snapshot telematics program typically cuts rates 10–20% for clean-record younger drivers. Auto-Owners averages $87/month nationally and is available in 26 states. If a non-standard carrier quote is significantly lower, run the same coverage spec through a standard-market broker (Travelers, Erie, Auto-Owners) before accepting the non-standard number.
30s family, two vehicles. American Family's June 2026 national average sits at $159/month full coverage — the lowest ValuePenguin reports for this period. 7 Quote all drivers and all vehicles together. Adding a young driver changes the household rate significantly; get that quote before consolidating everything under one carrier.
50s household, two cars. National average: $122/month. State Farm's 40-state rate reductions make a fresh State Farm quote worth running even if you've written them off. USAA-eligible drivers in this bracket average $102/month nationally — the lowest reported for any major carrier. 4
65+ retiree, low mileage. National average at 65: $115/month. If you're driving under 7,500 miles per year, ask each carrier explicitly for a low-mileage rate. Online quoting tools default to 12,000–15,000 miles. At 5,000 actual annual miles, you may be quoting at a 30–40% mileage surcharge that doesn't apply to you.
The retention-department gambit
Before completing any switch, call your current carrier's retention department — not general customer service. Name the best competing quote you've obtained: the carrier, the exact coverage spec, and the annual premium. Ask what they can do before you move the policy.
Retention departments can't file a custom rate. What they can do: apply discounts not currently reflected on your policy (multi-car, multi-policy, defensive driving, telematics enrollment credit), move you to a loyalty tier not triggered automatically, or offer a proactive renewal adjustment. These levers work best at or immediately before renewal.
One underused option: some policyholders have saved by requesting a fresh application on the same vehicles and coverage at the same carrier — canceling the existing policy and re-applying as a new customer. Long-tenure underwriting history can inflate a rate even within the same company; a new application resets that baseline. Not every carrier permits this, and some flag the overlap. Ask the retention desk directly before taking business elsewhere.
If retention can't get within 10% of your best outside quote: set the new policy start date equal to your existing policy's end date, cancel in writing, and request written confirmation of cancellation. A disabled autopay is not a cancelled policy.
Switches you should not make
Switching during an open claim. Your new carrier didn't underwrite the incident. Changing policies mid-claim creates two carrier relationships on the same event and resolves neither. Wait for final settlement before switching.
Dropping UM/UIM coverage for marginal savings. Roughly one in eight U.S. drivers carries no auto insurance. In high-cost states, that share is higher — in New Jersey, the uninsured driver rate grew from 3% in 2019 to over 14% by 2023 as premiums became unaffordable. 14 If an uninsured driver hits your vehicle and you've dropped UM/UIM, you absorb all costs. Keep UM/UIM limits at minimum equal to your bodily injury limits.
Reducing liability below 100/300/100. A quote that looks substantially cheaper often contains this reduction. Minimum-liability coverage — 25/50/25 in most states — leaves you personally exposed on any moderate accident. One at-fault collision with injuries in a 100/300 state can produce medical bills in excess of your limit; the difference is paid from your personal assets. The correct lever to lower a premium is raising collision and comprehensive deductibles — not cutting liability.
Moving to a non-standard carrier for minimal savings. National General, Direct Auto, Bristol West, and Dairyland serve drivers who can't access standard market carriers. Their initial premiums can undercut standard carriers — but the underwriting terms, claims conditions, and financial strength ratings differ. A $15/month savings from a non-standard carrier with a B+ AM Best rating and narrower claims language is not the same product as a $15/month higher premium from a standard carrier with an A+ rating. Get a standard-market quote before accepting any non-standard option.
The sharpest real-world illustration of lapse risk this week: a Philadelphia driver rear-ended a stopped car after their policy lapsed — the husband knew but hadn't told them. No injuries, but $7,500 in property damage, fully out-of-pocket. 12 Pennsylvania penalties beyond the repair cost: license suspension, registration suspension or $500 alternative fine, $300 minimum fine, and restoration fees before the vehicle can legally be driven again. Put auto insurance on automatic payment. One missed renewal mailing can produce five-figure consequences.
Cover image: AI-generated illustration.
George Washington Bridge photo via Bigstock / Insurance Journal.
References
- 1Insurance Journal: Auto news, trends and insights
insurancejournal.com
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- 7ValuePenguin: 10 Cheapest Car Insurance Companies (June 2026)
valuepenguin.com
- 8
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- 11r/Insurance: Looking to switch insurance
reddit.com
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- 14New Jersey Monitor: NJ car insurance rates soar, driving some to dump coverage
newjerseymonitor.com
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