MLB Power Rankings, Week 13: The Big Four pull away, Crow-Armstrong's historic June, and the White Sox road-trip reality check
After 8 weeks of drama at the top, the Dodgers hold consensus #1 across 4 of 5 sources while the Big Four — Dodgers (+133), Brewers (+119), Yankees (+112), Braves (+97) — pull away from the rest of MLB with a combined +461 run differential. Pete Crow-Armstrong's historic June (1.432 OPS, 9-10 HR) drives the Cubs' biggest weekly rise (▲7); the White Sox crash ▼4 after a 1-5 road trip; Spencer Strider moves to the 60-day IL with a 4-week throwing shutdown; and Tarik Skubal's trade deadline probability sits at 85%. All 30 teams ranked with Pythagorean luck table, injury watch, and Week 14 schedule outlook.
Four teams now own a combined run differential of +461. The next-best team in baseball sits at +21. That gap — wider now than at any point this season — is the defining structural fact of the 2026 schedule with six weeks until the August 3 trade deadline. Every significant ranking movement in Week 13 reflects one of two things: which clubs are jostling to serve the Big Four as playoff opponents, and which have quietly begun dismantling their rosters.
The Dodgers reclaimed the consensus #1 position across 4 of 5 sources after last week's short-lived split. Los Angeles got Shohei Ohtani back from paternity leave and he immediately homered; they activated Tommy Edman from the 60-day IL; Blake Snell threw to a standing catcher for the first time post-surgery. Spencer Strider, meanwhile, transferred to Atlanta's 60-day IL with a four-week throwing shutdown ahead of him. The Cardinals quietly posted the biggest composite riser of the week (+5 spots), and the Chicago Cubs — riding Pete Crow-Armstrong's absurd June — climbed seven composite spots, the largest gain of any team.
Rankings this week are drawn from five Week 13 sources: MLB.com (June 21, Will Leitch), Bleacher Report (June 22, Joel Reuter), USA Today (June 22, Gabe Lacques), CBS Sports (June 22, Matt Snyder), and FanSided (June 21, Rotman/Landers/Powell). The Athletic and ESPN had not yet published Week 13 editions as of June 22; The Athletic is expected June 23, ESPN approximately June 25. Composite ranks are simple averages across all five sources. 12345
All 30 teams ranked
| Rank | Team | W-L | Δ (composite) | Biggest single-source move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 49-29 | — | MLB.com, FanSided reclaim #1 (was split Week 12) |
| 2 | Atlanta Braves | 48-28 | — | USA Today lone source keeping ATL at #1 |
| 3 | Milwaukee Brewers | 46-29 | — | — |
| 4 | New York Yankees | 46-30 | — | — |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Rays | 43-31 | ▲2 | MLB.com #7→#5 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Phillies | 42-35 | ▼1 | USA Today +3 (best single-source) |
| 7 | St. Louis Cardinals | 41-34 | ▲5 | BR +3, CBS +2 |
| 8 | Cleveland Guardians | 41-37 | — | FanSided +1 |
| 9 | Seattle Mariners | 40-39 | ▲2 | FanSided +3 |
| 10 | Chicago White Sox | 39-37 | ▼4 | BR -7 (largest single-source drop: #6→#13) |
| 11 | Chicago Cubs | 40-37 | ▲7 | BR +4 (#16→#12) |
| 12 | Washington Nationals | 40-38 | ▼3 | MLB.com +3 (outlier; most others held/fell) |
| 13 | Miami Marlins | 39-38 | ▼3 | BR +4 (#10→#6) — vs. FanSided -4 (11-spot spread) |
| 14 | San Diego Padres | 39-37 | ▼1 | CBS -7 (#10→#20 in CBS system) |
| 15 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 39-38 | — | — |
| 16 | Toronto Blue Jays | 38-39 | ▲3 | CBS +6 (#22→#16 in CBS system) |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 39-39 | — | MLB.com -2, USA Today -2 |
| 18 | Texas Rangers | 37-40 | ▼4 | CBS -4 |
| 19 | Athletics | 38-40 | ▼3 | BR -4 |
| 20 | Cincinnati Reds | 37-39 | ▲4 | BR +3, CBS +3 |
| 21 | Minnesota Twins | 38-41 | ▲2 | CBS +6 |
| 22 | Houston Astros | 37-42 | ▼2 | BR +2 (partially offset falls elsewhere) |
| 23 | Baltimore Orioles | 37-42 | ▼2 | FanSided -3 |
| 24 | New York Mets | 34-43 | ▼2 | BR -5 (#20→#25) |
| 25 | Detroit Tigers | 33-44 | ▲1 | CBS +1, USA Today +1 |
| 26 | Boston Red Sox | 31-44 | ▲1 | — |
| 27 | Kansas City Royals | 32-46 | ▼2 | — |
| 28 | Los Angeles Angels | 32-47 | ▲1 | — |
| 29 | San Francisco Giants | 31-46 | ▼1 | USA Today #28→#29; Giants article focus of USAT piece |
| 30 | Colorado Rockies | 30-48 | — | Unanimous #30 across all 5 sources |
Records as of June 21, 2026. Composite rank = simple average across all five Week 13 sources. Δ column reflects change vs. Week 12 composite. Source ranges with spread ≥ 6 positions: Marlins (BR #6, FanSided #17 — 11-spot spread), Padres (USAT #12, CBS #20 — 8-spot spread), Diamondbacks (FanSided #11, CBS #18 — 7-spot spread). 12345
The Big Four: run differential as a structural argument
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Matt Snyder at CBS Sports framed the situation plainly: "It's just a case of four utterly dominant teams at the top." 4 The Dodgers (+133), Brewers (+119), Yankees (+112), and Braves (+97) all sit above +97. No other team in the league is above +21. The gap between the Big Four and the fifth-best run differential (+21, Cubs) is larger than the gap between the Cubs and the team ranked 29th in that category. 6
Los Angeles Dodgers — consensus #1 (49-29, .628)
Four of five sources have the Dodgers at #1. USA Today (Gabe Lacques) keeps Atlanta there — the only dissent, now for a second consecutive week. 3 The numbers don't leave much room for argument: +133 run differential (MLB-best), 1.10 WHIP (MLB-best), 3.46 ERA (4th), .778 OPS (1st). 67
Their Pythagorean record projects them at 53-25 against an actual 49-29 — four wins below expectation, among the largest negative luck gaps in baseball. 6 Kyle Tucker (OF), signed to a major offseason deal, is hitting .234/.331/.374 — a number CBS's Snyder called out explicitly. 4 Tanner Scott (RP) has been quietly excellent: 33 appearances, 9-for-10 in save chances, 2.32 ERA. 2
Ohtani returned from paternity leave and homered in his first game back. 1 FanSided notes he's also managing blister issues, so the Dodgers are balancing "best player on the planet" against "get him healthy for October." 5 Tommy Edman (INF) was activated from the 60-day IL this week, adding infield depth. 8
Atlanta Braves — #1 (USA Today only), #2 elsewhere (48-28, .632)
The Braves lead the NL East by 6.5 games with a Pythagorean luck of exactly zero — the record matches what the underlying numbers project, no more. 6 Their pitching carries the team right now: 3.40 ERA (2nd in MLB), 2.87 bullpen ERA, 1.20 WHIP. 7 The offense has cooled to 61 runs in 16 June games, but the rotation has absorbed it. 2
The Strider situation is serious. He transferred from the 15-day to 60-day IL this week after Dr. Keith Meister found no structural ligament damage but prescribed a four-week throwing shutdown. Per the Braves' official statement: "Provided that scan is clear, he will then begin a throwing progression." 9 Best-case scenario targets a late August or early September return. Bryce Elder (SP) gave up 5, 6, and 8 earned runs in his last three starts. 3 JR Ritchie (Atlanta's #2 prospect per MLB Pipeline) was recalled to fill the rotation spot and has a 3.82 ERA in 30.2 innings for Atlanta this season. 8
FanSided's Zach Rotman says Atlanta "is going to need to acquire a starter or two sooner rather than later." 5 With Strider, Schwellenbach, and Smith-Shawver all unavailable, Atlanta is confirmed as one of the deadline's most aggressive buyers — and ESPN's reporting names the Braves as a top suitor for Tarik Skubal (DET), whose trade likelihood sits at 85%. 10
Milwaukee Brewers — unanimous #3 (46-29, .613)
Jacob Misiorowski (SP) is on pace for more than 300 strikeouts. The Brewers' franchise record is 264, set by Ben Sheets in 2004. 4 Brandon Woodruff (SP) confirmed his return to the rotation for Monday June 23 at Cincinnati after his second rehab start went 5.1 innings and 6 strikeouts at High-A Wisconsin. 11 The team's +119 run differential passed the Yankees this week to rank second in MLB. 6 Their 736 strikeouts lead all of baseball. 7
Will Leitch at MLB.com noted that a weekend win over the Braves — breaking a 3-game losing streak with an 8-run second inning — "felt like yet another test passed." 1 Freddy Peralta (SP) is rated at 90% trade likelihood by ESPN; the Brewers may still add at the deadline despite Woodruff's return. 10
New York Yankees — unanimous #4 (46-30, .605)
The Yankees are 9-4 without Aaron Judge (right first-rib stress fracture, no updated timeline this week), and lead the AL East by 3.5 games. 6 Max Fried (SP, left elbow bone bruise) threw bullpen sessions and is expected to face live hitters by late June or early July; he remains on the 15-day IL. 8 The franchise is navigating without Judge, Fried, and Giancarlo Stanton simultaneously — a test of organizational depth they are currently passing.
Cam Schlittler (SP) posted a 1.71 ERA through 16 starts — the lowest for any Yankees pitcher through this many starts since Whitey Ford in 1964, per Snyder. 4 Paul Goldschmidt (1B) has 12 home runs this year, exceeding his 2025 full-season total. 3 The Yankees lead MLB with 114 home runs and the best team ERA at 3.35. 712
As Snyder noted, the 2025 Blue Jays were 42-36 with a negative run differential at this stage and made the World Series. The Yankees' profile — elite pitching, power offense, +112 run differential — is more convincing. 4
Biggest risers
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Chicago Cubs — composite #11 (▲7)
The biggest composite gainer of the week, and the reason is one player. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF) is having one of the best individual months any outfielder has produced in recent memory. His June line across 17-19 games depending on publication date: .437/.481/.930, 9-10 HR, 14 RBI, 6 SB, 1.432 OPS. 14 He leads all position players in ESPN WAR at 4.6. 13 The Cubs are 40-37 (.519), 7 games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central, and currently hold the third NL Wild Card spot. 6
USA Today also noted Chandler Simpson's 30-game stolen base drought finally ended this week. 3
St. Louis Cardinals — composite #7 (▲5)
The Cardinals moved from composite #12 to #7, the second-largest rise this week, after taking 2 of 3 from the Twins, sweeping the Rangers, and going 2 of 3 in Arizona — a 5-1 stretch that left them 41-34 (.547). 4 Their +4 run differential is unremarkable, but they are running at a +3 Pythagorean luck surplus. 6
The complication is the front office posture. FanSided's Mark Powell writes that Cardinals management may be "planning for the future" at the expense of the present — Nootbaar and O'Brien are reportedly on the trade block. 5 A team two games up in the Wild Card that quietly trades away contributors may find the present has moved on without them.
Toronto Blue Jays — composite #16 (▲3)
CBS Sports gave them the largest single-source jump of the week (+6 spots) after they took 2 of 3 in Arizona and at Wrigley. 4 Daulton Varsho (OF) returned from the IL and homered in the Wrigley comeback win; Lazaro Estrada returned from the 60-day IL. 8 Max Scherzer (SP, veterans) went straight to the 15-day IL with back spasms — the rotation's injury history is hard to ignore for a team already carrying a -25 run differential. 8
Cincinnati Reds — composite #20 (▲4)
Three sources moved the Reds up (+3 Bleacher Report, +3 CBS). They are 37-39 with a -46 run differential, propped up by a +4 Pythagorean luck score and a 6-3 record in extra innings. 6 Elly De La Cruz (SS) is progressing through a rehab assignment with a return considered imminent. 5 Chase Burns (SP) has 4.2 ESPN WAR. 13 The Reds also face the toughest schedule in Week 14 behind the Padres — four Brewers games and Cardinals to follow. 14
Biggest fallers
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Chicago White Sox — composite #10 (▼4)
This is the week's most significant narrative reversal. The White Sox had been the darling of early June — a young team that beat the Braves and Dodgers at home, hovering around .500. Then they went 1-5 on a road trip to New York and Detroit, losing three to the Yankees and getting swept by the last-place Tigers. 2
Bleacher Report dropped them from #6 to #13 (-7 spots, the largest single-source fall of the week). MLB.com -2, CBS -3. 14 Reuter at Bleacher Report called their 5.18 team ERA in June "slightly alarming for a young club exceeding expectations." 2 Snyder at CBS noted the White Sox are 15-25 on the road this season: "a true contender with staying power needs to be better." 4 Leitch at MLB.com wrote the road trip gave the team "a clearer sense of how far they have left to go." 1
Munetaka Murakami (DH/1B) remains on the 10-day IL with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain, resuming baseball activities at roughly 80% intensity with no set return date. 8 At 39-37, Chicago leads the AL Central by half a game over Cleveland — which makes their home series this week consequential for what's left of the early-season narrative.
San Diego Padres — composite #14 (▼1 composite, but CBS -7)
The composite fall looks modest, but CBS dropped the Padres seven spots — from #10 to #20 in their system — after an 8-17 stretch over the last 25 games with a -19 run differential over that span. 4 The Padres are 39-37 (.513), which looks passable until their season-long run differential of -4 frames it correctly: they are living entirely on one-run game results. 6
Manager Craig Stammen, defending Manny Machado's recent results: "I trust Manny Machado." 1 The coming week doesn't help: Braves then Dodgers, with an average opponent winning percentage of .611 — the most difficult schedule draw in baseball for the week of June 23-29. 14
Pittsburgh Pirates — composite #17 (steady, but context matters)
The Pirates have now lost seven consecutive Paul Skenes (SP) starts. His season ERA is still 2.86. 1 FanSided's Mark Powell wrote: "The Pirates bullpen sucks, and I don't say that lightly." 5 Pittsburgh is exactly .500 at 39-39 with a +14 run differential — the underlying numbers say they should be better. 6
Miami Marlins — the most divisive team in baseball (composite #13, ▼3)
The Marlins deserve their own section because the disagreement between sources is so pronounced. Bleacher Report has them at #6 (Tier 2, calling them "the hottest team in baseball in June") after going 14-4 this month with baseball's best June ERA. 2 FanSided dropped them to #17. The 11-position spread between those two sources is the largest for any team this week. 5
The Miami case: 14-4 in June, MLB-best 2.72-3.06 ERA this month (sources measured at different dates), 39-38 with a legitimate NL Wild Card position — currently tied with the Nationals for the third spot. 36
The skeptic's argument: the offense ranks near the bottom of MLB, Sandy Alcantara trade rumors persist, and a team that traded away most of its wins-above-replacement ceiling in 2023-24 has been running on pitching alone. Whether this June run is sustainable depends almost entirely on what Miami does at the deadline.
Pythagorean luck — who's overperforming and who should be worried
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Seven teams are running at least +3 wins above expectations; seven others are at least -3 below. 6
Most overperforming: The Rays (+5) are 43-31 with a run differential of just +8. Their .581 winning percentage is sustained by an efficient bullpen and close-game record; a gap of this size has historically corrected 4-6 wins over a full season. 6 The Athletics (+4) are 38-40 despite a -54 run differential, sustained by extra-inning and one-run game results. The Phillies (+4) are 42-35 with a -4 run differential — their 15-6 one-run game record is almost entirely responsible. 6
Most underperforming: The Red Sox (-6) are 31-44, but their Pythagorean record projects them at 37-38 — a club whose run scoring and prevention says they should be around .500 sits 14 games under. Their 12-25 home record at Fenway Park is the most anomalous team-level split in the AL. 6 The Tigers (-5) are in a comparable position, though Skubal's presence makes their situation more interesting than the Red Sox's. 6
Also worth noting: the Dodgers (-4) and Brewers (-3) are two of the seven most "unlucky" teams in baseball. If those clubs regress toward their Pythagorean projections, both records get better, not worse. 6
Injury and transaction watch
| Player | Team | Position | Status | Timeline | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | ATL | SP | 60-day IL — right elbow; no structural damage; 4-week throwing shutdown then MRI | Earliest return late Aug.–early Sep. | Braves pursuing multiple SPs at deadline 9 |
| Aaron Judge | NYY | RF | 10-day IL — right first-rib stress fracture; no timeline update this week | 4–6 week shutdown window, no change | Yankees 9-4 without him; exploring OF trades (Buxton, Duran, others) 8 |
| José Ramírez | CLE | 3B | Hamate surgery completed June 16 (Dr. Thomas Graham) — fractured left hamate bone | 5–7 weeks; targeting return between All-Star break and deadline | Rookie Travis Bazzana carrying Guardians offense 15 |
| Max Fried | NYY | SP | 15-day IL — left elbow bone bruise; now asymptomatic; bullpen sessions underway | Facing hitters late June/early July; no rehab assignment yet | Yankees rotation holding without him 8 |
| Tarik Skubal | DET | SP | Active — June 19 vs. White Sox: 5 IP, 8 K, 2 ER, W; fastball 99.9 mph post-surgery | No IL concerns | ESPN: 85% trade likelihood; top suitors LAD, NYY, ATL, MIL, CHC, TB 1016 |
| Adolis García | PHI | RF | 60-day IL — season-ending right latissimus dorsi repair scheduled June 24; recovery 6–8 months | Out for 2026 season | Phillies exploring back-end SP trades 8 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | 1B | Hamate surgery completed — fractured right hand | 4–6 weeks | Royals also lost Cole Ragans (60-day IL, elbow) and Carlos Estévez (60-day IL) this week 8 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | SS | 7-day concussion IL (retro June 12) — taking defensive drills June 20 | Not yet cleared | Rangers already without Adolis García (now on Phillies, season-ending surgery) 8 |
| Michael Soroka / Ryne Nelson / Jordan Lawlar | ARI | SP / SP / SS | All added to IL in same weekend: Soroka (glute), Nelson (partial flexor tendon tear, out until September), Lawlar (hamstring) | Nelson out until September; others 2–6 weeks | Rotation in critical shape; Corbin Burnes also out until September 8 |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | SP | 15-day IL (shoulder inflammation); rehab start June 17: 5.1 IP, 6 K at High-A Wisconsin | Returns June 23 vs. Reds | Brewers rotation deepens at the right moment 11 |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | DH/1B | 10-day IL — Grade 2 right hamstring; resuming activities at ~80% intensity | No clear return timetable | White Sox went 1-5 on road trip without him 8 |
Status as of June 22, 2026.
The Diamondbacks' injury cascade deserves specific mention. In roughly 48 hours, Arizona placed Soroka, Nelson, and Lawlar on the IL while Corbin Burnes (Tommy John setback, teres major strain) remains shut down from throwing until at least September. 8 GM Mike Hazen said publicly: "I'm planning on buying." 17 Given the rotation's state, that posture looks correct — the roster will need significant reinforcement to stay relevant in the Wild Card race.
Trade deadline framing (August 3, 2026)
Six weeks out, the buyer-seller lines are clearer than normal for late June. 10
Confirmed buyers: Dodgers, Braves, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies (exploring back-end SP after García injury), Diamondbacks (Hazen's stated position). The Big Four add pieces; the Phillies fill a specific position need.
Confirmed sellers: Giants (listening on Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman — Logan Webb unavailable per reports), Royals (lost Ragans, Estévez, and Pasquantino in the same week), Twins (ownership disposition per FanSided; Joe Ryan at 55% trade likelihood, Byron Buxton at 30% if no-trade waiver is submitted). 1017
The Skubal situation: ESPN's Jeff Passan and Jeff McDaniel rate him at 85% trade likelihood — the highest figure on their entire trade board. 10 Detroit is 33-44, six games behind six teams for the final Wild Card. Skubal is 3-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 8 starts since his return from elbow surgery, throwing 99.9 mph. He publicly warned the team: "We're fighting tooth and nail for every win we can get, and obviously we kind of put ourselves in that position. We've got to fight our way out of it." 16 He won't get that chance with a team almost certain to sell.
Week ahead: schedule outlook (June 23–29)
| Team | Upcoming opponents | Avg opp W% | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | vs. Braves (.632), @ Dodgers (.628) | .611 | Toughest draw in baseball this week 14 |
| Reds | vs. Brewers (.613), vs. Cardinals (.547) | .556 | Second-hardest schedule; regression test for +4 luck gap 14 |
| Giants | vs. Athletics (.487), @ Braves (.632), @ D-backs (.506) | .552 | Extended road trip continues; three games at Atlanta open wounds further 14 |
| Yankees | vs. Tigers (.429), vs. Red Sox (.413) | .420 | Most favorable draw in baseball; 4-game Red Sox series is the main test 14 |
| Braves | vs. Padres (.513), @ Giants (.403) | .447 | Five-game week, softest opponents; room to extend NL East lead 14 |
| Brewers | vs. Reds (plus Cubs series June 26-28) | ~.535 | Woodruff opens Monday; Cubs at Milwaukee is the best NL Central matchup of the week 14 |
The Padres-Braves and Padres-Dodgers sequences (six games against the top two NL teams, combined winning percentage .630) represent the most consequential stretch for any single team this week. San Diego needs wins to hold a Wild Card spot, and they chose the worst possible week to show a -19 run differential in their last 25 games.
Three data points will define Week 14 rankings more than anything else:
- Strider's four-week clock starts now. The follow-up MRI — if clean — opens a throwing progression targeting late August. Atlanta's trade deadline posture will be proportional to what that scan shows.
- White Sox identity test at home. If the road pattern persists, the 1-5 trip becomes a pattern, not an outlier; a home bounce-back against the Cardinals keeps the contender narrative alive.
- Skubal's next start. Whether Detroit wins or loses behind him — and how the front office responds to the result — determines whether he's in a different uniform on August 4.
Cover image from MLB.com. 1
References
- 1
- 2Bleacher Report — MLB Power Rankings: Marlins Stay Hot, White Sox Tumble
bleacherreport.com
- 3
- 4
- 5
- 6MLB Stats API — Standings 2026
statsapi.mlb.com
- 7MLB Stats API — Team Pitching Stats 2026
statsapi.mlb.com
- 8MLB Transactions API — June 15-22, 2026
statsapi.mlb.com
- 9
- 10
- 11
- 12MLB Stats API — Team Hitting Stats 2026
statsapi.mlb.com
- 13ESPN — MLB WAR Leaders 2026
espn.com
- 14MLB Stats API — Schedule June 23-29, 2026
statsapi.mlb.com
- 15
- 16
- 17
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