US strikes Iran during Memorial Day weekend — Brent breaks $100 on return, WTI deepens losses to $93.89
CME futures reopened Tuesday after a three-day holiday to find the Iran peace narrative had reversed: US military strikes near Bandar Abbas on Monday night sent Brent below $100/bbl and WTI to a 1-week low of $93.89. Gold fell for a fourth straight session as the oil-shock war flipped its safe-haven role into an inflation-rate-hike story. Copper was the sole gainer (+0.69% to $6.4245), supported by LME inventories at 1974 lows and a $1 trillion Micron AI demand signal. Grains eased modestly; crop progress and export data both came in firm.
CME futures reopened Tuesday after a three-day Memorial Day holiday (Friday May 23 → Tuesday May 26; exchange closed Sunday May 24 and Monday May 25) to find the weekend had rewritten the geopolitical script. Where Friday's close was shadowed by a nearly-signed US-Iran peace memorandum, traders walked in Tuesday morning to news that the US military had struck southern Iran near Bandar Abbas on Monday night — a "defensive" strike against missile launchers and mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, confirmed by CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins. 1 Iran's Foreign Ministry called the attack a "serious violation" of the ceasefire in force since April 8. 2 The accumulated weekend newsflow hit six futures markets simultaneously, producing a disjointed settlement: crude oil collapsed (WTI hit a 1-week low, Brent broke below $100/bbl), gold fell for a fourth straight session, but copper — alone among the six markets tracked here — posted a gain, driven by structural forces untethered from the Iran narrative.
Next settlement: Wednesday May 27. EIA weekly petroleum report delayed to Thursday May 28 due to the holiday.
Settlement snapshot — May 26 vs. May 23
| Contract | Settlement | Change | % Change | May 23 close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold Jun (GCM6) | $4,502.30/oz | −$8.20 | −0.18% | $4,510.50 |
| NYMEX WTI Jul (CLN6) | $93.89/bbl | −$3.11 | −3.21% | $97.00 |
| NYMEX Brent Jul (BZCN6) | $99.58/bbl | −$4.36 | −4.19% | $103.94 |
| CBOT Corn Jul (ZCN6) | 462.25¢/bu | −1.00¢ | −0.22% | 463.25¢ |
| CBOT Soybeans Jul (ZSN6) | 1,194.25¢/bu | −2.25¢ | −0.19% | 1,196.50¢ |
| COMEX Copper Jul (HGN6) | $6.4245/lb | +$0.0440 | +0.69% | $6.3805 |
Energy: Brent slips below $100, WTI extends losses to 1-week low
WTI (CLN6) settled at $93.89 — down $3.11 (−3.21%) from Friday's $97.00 close — after trading a wide $4.35 intraday range ($90.35 low to $94.70 high) on a volume of 327,370 contracts, 238% of the 65-session average. 47 Brent (BZCN6) settled at $99.58 — down $4.36 (−4.19%), and the worst percentage mover among all six contracts — after briefly touching $100.75 before caving. 5 Brent's close below the psychologically important $100/bbl threshold marked its lowest settlement since late April.
The gap between the two moves requires explanation. On Monday (the holiday), Brent cratered roughly 7% on optimism that a peace MoU was imminent; because the NYMEX was closed, WTI could not price that collapse. Tuesday opened with WTI catching down to that Monday Brent drop — hence the $90.35 print at the open — while Brent simultaneously bounced on news of the fresh US strikes in Iran. The net result: WTI down -3.21% vs. May 23, Brent down -4.19%, but the intraday trajectories ran in opposite directions once New York opened. 8
The Iran military exchange
CENTCOM struck missile launchers and mine-laying vessels near Bandar Abbas — roughly 70 km from the Strait of Hormuz — on Monday evening. 1 Iran's IRGC claimed it shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone and fired on an RQ-4 and an F-35. 9 IRGC Aerospace Commander Seyed Majid Moosavi warned of a "decisive, swift response" on X. Supreme Leader Khamenei posted on Telegram: "The clock cannot be turned back, and the nations and lands of the region will no longer be a shield for American bases." 2
Secretary of State Rubio, speaking in Jaipur, India on Tuesday, said the strait "is going to be open one way or the other." 1 Meanwhile, CENTCOM confirmed it had redirected 108 commercial vessels as part of the ongoing Hormuz blockade enforcement. 10
Analyst reaction was split. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said both sides were "approaching the finish line under fire" but warned that if talks collapse "a return to hostilities will be inevitable." Rosemary Kelanic of Defense Priorities said the strikes "undoubtedly endangered" whatever progress negotiations had achieved. 11 Mark Cancian of CSIS called the strikes "limited" but potentially significant depending on how Tehran responds. 11
Iran's residual demand at the negotiating table remains the unfreezing of approximately $24 billion in frozen assets as the final unresolved obstacle to an MoU. 9 Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tuesday: "To say that we have reached a conclusion on a large portion of the issues under discussion would be correct. However, to say that this means an agreement is on the verge of being signed is not something anyone can claim." 9
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Tanker explosion off Oman; Hormuz still a warlike operations area
At 0945 UTC Tuesday, UKMTO issued Warning 062-26: the Marshall Islands-flagged crude tanker M/T Olympic Life reported an "external explosion" on its port side approximately 60 nautical miles east of Muscat, Oman. The crew and vessel were reported safe with partial fuel spillage. 12 The incident follows the discovery on May 25 of NATO-manufactured magnetic mines on the hull of the LPG tanker Arrhenius at Russia's Ust-Luga port on the Baltic, adding a second front to the global tanker-security picture. 13
Commercial shipping through Hormuz remains well below pre-conflict levels. Three LNG carriers and one Iraq-crude VLCC transited the strait over the past week — the VLCC after being stranded for nearly three months. 8 ADNOC's CEO has stated full Hormuz oil flow will not recover until 2027. 14
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SPR cargo heads to Asia; OPEC+ meeting June 7
The Greek VLCC Arosa loaded roughly 616,000 barrels of sour crude from the Bryan Mound Strategic Petroleum Reserve terminal in Texas — blended with approximately 700,000 barrels of US Thunder Horse-grade crude — and is headed to Bataan, Philippines, chartered by Shell. The estimated arrival is early July 2026, and this is the first SPR cargo dispatched to Asia since November 2022. 15 The shipment is part of a coordinated 172-million-barrel SPR release, itself part of an IEA-led global emergency draw of 400 million barrels. 15
OPEC+ meets on June 7 and is expected to authorize a third consecutive monthly production increase of roughly +188,000 bpd for July delivery. 16 The UAE has formally exited OPEC, leaving seven countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — as the active production-adjustment participants. The OPEC basket price was quoted at $113.40/bbl (as of six days ago), still well above current WTI and Brent settlements. 17
AAA's national average retail gasoline price stood at $4.491/gallon on Tuesday, down slightly from $4.507 the prior day and $4.533 one week earlier, but still roughly $1.31 above February's pre-conflict level of approximately $3.00/gallon. 18 Diesel was $5.584/gallon. The all-time US gasoline record is $5.016/gallon (June 14, 2022), now about $0.53 away. 18
FGE NexantECA Chairman Fereidun Fesharaki, speaking to CNBC, warned: "Nobody wants to think about the worst-case scenario. So everybody thinks every news is good news." He cautioned that if the Hormuz closure extends through July — now approaching its fourth month — the result would be "a recipe for disaster" and likely a global recession. 19
Ukraine added two more nodes to the energy map this session: its May 23 strike on the Sheskharis terminal (one of Russia's largest Black Sea export hubs), and Russia's Syzran refinery remaining offline after the May 21 drone attack that damaged its primary processing unit. 2021 Ukraine has now struck 24 of Russia's 33 major refineries since 2022. 13 Approximately 20–25% of Russian refining capacity is currently damaged or offline. 13
The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report — covering the week ending May 22 — is delayed to Thursday, May 28 due to the Memorial Day holiday. No API inventory data was available Tuesday either. 22
Gold: fourth straight decline as Iran flips the safe-haven calculus
COMEX Gold Jun (GCM6) settled at $4,502.30/oz, down $8.20 (−0.18%) from Friday's $97.00 close, marking the fourth consecutive daily loss. Intraday, the contract opened at $4,571.60, hit a high of $4,583.30 before cratering to $4,480.00 — a $103.30 range (2.26%) — before recovering to settle near the day's midpoint. 3 Volume was 250,910 contracts, 262% of the 65-session average, signaling aggressive two-way activity rather than a quiet drift lower. 3
The headline number buries a structural shift in how the market is reading the Iran conflict. Gold rose sharply when the war began in February because geopolitical crises typically trigger deflation-fear safe-haven buying. That channel broke down: the Hormuz closure is inflationary (crude supply shock → higher energy costs → broader price pressure), not deflationary, and the resulting Fed reaction function has flipped.
American Gold Exchange analyst Jim Wyckoff framed it directly: "The bond markets are thinking that the next rate move by the Federal Reserve is going to be an increase. That's a negative for the gold market here today." 23 Heraeus analysts put the broader context in writing: "In response to the conflict in the Middle East and the subsequent price rises, the market has flipped from expecting 1-2 rate cuts in 2026 to now expecting 1 rate hike." 24
CME FedWatch pricing (via multiple secondary sources) shows roughly 60% probability of a 25bp rate hike by December 2026 and approximately 80% by March 2027 — with zero cuts priced for all of 2026. 25 XM Group's Charalampos Pissouros wrote: "Heightened inflation fears could push gold below the key zone of $4,500." 26 A decisive close below $4,500 would open technical downside toward $4,345 (the 200-day EMA) and potentially $4,100, according to Pissouros. 26
Gold is now down roughly 15% from its $5,420 high set when the Iran conflict began on February 28. On a year-to-date basis, however, GCM6 remains up 2.51%. 3
Kevin Warsh's debut and the Fed's narrowing room
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Federal Reserve Chair on May 22, succeeding Jerome Powell on a largely party-line Senate vote. 27 His stated priorities: tighter discipline, reduced intervention, and restrained monetary policy. 27 Wilmington Trust analysts cautioned that "regime change" rhetoric faces the reality that early meetings will be consumed by the inflation problem — "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." 28 Jerome Powell remains within the Fed as a governor; his more hawkish votes could complicate Warsh's position on rate decisions. 29 Warsh's first FOMC meeting as chair is scheduled for June 16–17; the June meeting is priced at 98–99% hold. 25
The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.493% (down from ~4.572% prior); the 30-year settled at 5.021%, retreating from the 5.18% print that briefly registered as the highest 30-year yield since July 2007. 2630 The Tuesday 2-year Treasury auction cleared at 4.071%, up a sharp 25.9bp from the prior auction's 3.812% — a direct signal that markets are pricing in higher short-term rates. 31
On the demand side, gold ETF net flows turned positive for the first time since early April, with North American inflows of $824 million and European inflows of $180 million. 32 Goldman Sachs revised its central bank gold purchase nowcast upward to 60 tonnes/month for 2026 (from 50 tonnes in March, and 29 tonnes originally). 32 Against that structural bid, India's 15% import duty (raised from 6%, effective May 13) sent April gold imports down 47% below the 5-year monthly average to just 0.66 million ounces. 24 Malaysia followed with a new 10% import duty on LBMA gold bars. 24 Russia's sovereign gold reserves dropped a further 5.7 tonnes in April to a 24-year low, reflecting continued forced liquidation to cover budget deficits. 33
The UBS year-end gold target was cut by $400 to $5,500, citing persistent yield pressure. 34
The DXY (US dollar index) settled near 99.08, consolidating in the 99.00–99.50 band and up from approximately 98.00 at the end of April. 35 The dollar's firmness contradicts the "peace trade" thesis (a genuine deal would typically weaken the dollar on risk-on flows), but Fed rate-hike expectations are providing an offsetting support floor. 35
Thursday's PCE inflation data (the Fed's preferred measure) is the next scheduled catalyst for gold and rates. April PPI data showed year-on-year inflation running at 6%. 26
Copper: sole gainer on structural tightness and AI demand
COMEX Copper Jul (HGN6) settled at $6.4245/lb, up $0.0440 (+0.69%), the only contract in Tuesday's settlement table to close in the green. The intraday range ran from $6.3540 to $6.4480. 6 StoneX's Eli Tesfaye rated copper composite bias BULLISH at TPI 0.73, noting that Monday's holiday partial tape (which pushed to $6.4700 on a standalone basis) rebuilt enough structure to confirm the read. 6
Three structural drivers are running beneath the surface:
LME inventories are at levels not seen since 1974, following Trafigura's withdrawal of 51,000 tonnes from LME warehouses — the largest single warehouse draw since 2013. 36
Copper concentrate treatment charges (TCs) in China broke below negative $100/tonne for the first time on record. A negative TC means smelters are paying miners to process concentrate rather than earning a fee — a clear sign that the upstream concentrate supply is so tight that smelters need the volume to keep operating. 37 The LME Insight noted that with TCs this negative, some Chinese smelters may be compelled to cut refined production, potentially tightening the downstream market further. 37
AI and data-center demand provided Tuesday's narrative catalyst: Micron Technology (MU) surged 19.29% to $895.88, crossing a $1 trillion market capitalization for the first time and becoming the 11th-largest US company. 31 The market read Micron's AI chip demand signal as directly reinforcing copper's data-center buildout thesis: AI facilities are estimated to use 27–33 tonnes of copper per megawatt of IT load, and S&P Global projects global copper demand rising from 28 million to 42 million metric tonnes by 2040. 26
The Yangshan copper premium stood at $73/tonne, its highest since mid-April, pointing to recovering Chinese import appetite. 26 A mild counter-signal: SMM data showed Chinese copper social inventory in mainstream regions at 245,200 metric tonnes as of May 25, up 2,300 MT week-on-week — a modest inventory build that typically implies near-term demand softness. 38 For now, the LME tightness and the AI-demand narrative are outweighing that signal. SHFE's most-traded copper contract gained 0.9% to 105,370 yuan/tonne. 26
CFTC Commitments of Traders data (as of May 19) showed managed money holding 87,457 long positions and 13,269 shorts in copper futures — a net long of 74,188 contracts that has been broadly stable. 39
Grains: oil collapse pulls corn and soybeans lower, but demand data holds
CBOT Corn Jul (ZCN6) settled at 462.25¢/bu, down 1.00¢ (−0.22%) from Friday's close. The intraday range was tight: 460.00¢ low to 469.25¢ high (a 9.25¢ band). 6 CBOT Soybeans Jul (ZSN6) settled at 1,194.25¢/bu, down 2.25¢ (−0.19%), ranged 1,191¢ to 1,204¢. 6
Both declines are best understood as sympathy trades with the crude oil collapse. Grain markets since February have been running a de facto "inflation hedge" correlation: funds hold large corn and soybean long positions partly because $97 WTI signals elevated input costs and broad commodity inflation. When WTI drops to $93.89, a piece of that inflation-premium rationale erodes. Helena Agri-Enterprises analyst Jody Lawrence (Strategic Trading Advisors) described it plainly: managed money is holding 1.45 billion bushel-equivalents long in corn and 1.04 billion bushels long in soybeans in that inflation trade, but "they will quickly sour on the idea of being long if the Straits have a reliable reopening." 40
CFTC data (as of May 19) showed managed money corn net longs at 293,354 contracts, down 6,129 on the week; soybean net longs at 207,804, down 7,011. 40 The drawdown pace is gradual — these are still historically large long books — but the direction is clear.
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USDA crop progress: corn and beans ahead of pace, wheat struggling
Tuesday's delayed USDA Crop Progress report (reflecting conditions through May 24, pushed one day late by the Memorial Day holiday) showed mixed signals depending on which crop you're watching:
| Crop | Planted | Prior week | 5-yr avg | Emerged / G+E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 86% | 76% | 83% | 60% emerged |
| Soybeans | 79% | 67% | 68% | 49% emerged |
| Winter wheat | 78% heading | — | — | 26% Good-to-Excellent |
| Spring wheat | 86% planted | 73% | — | 56% emerged |
Corn and soybean planting are at or above average for this date. The winter wheat picture is the opposite: a 26% Good-to-Excellent rating, with 44% rated Poor to Very Poor, represents one of the worst readings in recent decades. DTN meteorologist John Baranick assessed the week ahead as favorable for the core corn belt — "areas that had been wet look to be a bit drier and areas that have been too dry are getting at least some chance to be wet this week" — but he flagged that Plains wheat country (Kansas, Nebraska, the Dakotas) still faces worsening drought. 41
The Corn Belt's drought footprint has retreated sharply from February's peaks: Iowa stands at just 2.3% drought coverage (from 11% three months ago) and Illinois at 4.1% (from nearly 74% in mid-February). 42 The Climate Prediction Center's summer drought outlook calls for drought to largely bypass the Midwest core through August. 43
Export demand cushions the downside
The weekly export sales report (week ending May 14, published May 21) showed corn old-crop sales of 83.7 million bushels — the best week since mid-January and 71% above the four-week average, with Japan (779,800 MT) and South Korea (463,800 MT) as the primary buyers. 4445 New-crop corn added 11.1 million bushels; cumulative 2025/26 corn exports stand at 3.145 billion bushels versus 2.491 billion at the same point last year. 44
Soybean old-crop sales were 12.9 million bushels (351,400 MT), 62% above the four-week average, with unknown destinations (likely China or Southeast Asian buyers re-routing) as the largest buyer at 171,900 MT. 45 Cumulative soybean exports for 2025/26 are 1.447 billion bushels — down 18% from a year ago, reflecting China's pivot toward Brazilian origination. 44
Friday May 22 added three flash sales: 19.4 million bushels of corn to Mexico, 4.3 million bushels to unknown destinations, and 252,000 MT of soybean meal to unknown destinations. 46
The export-inspections line (week ending May 21) confirmed 1.582 million MT of corn shipped, up 11.43% week-on-week. 47
Ethanol and South American production
Ethanol daily production reached 1.111 million barrels/day in the week ending May 15 — a five-week high, up 29,000 bbl/day week-on-week and 7.2% year-on-year — providing a concrete demand anchor for corn. 48 The next EIA ethanol data (covering the week ending May 22) is due Wednesday, May 27. 48
Argentina's Bolsa de Cereales (BAGE) raised its 2025/26 corn estimate to 64.0 MMT on May 21 (from 61.0 MMT in mid-April), while the Agriculture Ministry puts it higher at 70.0 MMT. 49 Brazil's safrinha corn estimates remain wide: CONAB at 108.5 MMT (May 14), USDA at 103 MMT, Safras at 99.1 MMT, and Agroconsult at 112.1 MMT — a 13 MMT range that indicates genuine uncertainty about the second-crop harvest. 50 CONAB's next update is Wednesday, May 27.
The soybean/corn price ratio (ZSN6 ÷ ZCN6) stood at roughly 2.60 on Tuesday — well above the traditional 2.5 acreage-shift tipping point. DTN analyst Mitch Miller called 2026 "a slam dunk for a large shift in those flex acres back to soybeans." 51 USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings put corn at 95.3 million acres (down 3.5 million from 2025) and soybeans at 84.7 million acres (up 3.5 million). The June 30 Acreage report will be the first hard confirmation of whether those shifts materialized. 51
Macro overlay: four markets, four stories, one unresolved catalyst
The most notable feature of Tuesday's session is not any single settlement number but the divergence of narratives running across asset classes:
- WTI/Brent: pricing the accumulated impact of peace-deal optimism (lower oil) overlaid with Monday night's fresh strikes (Brent partial bounce)
- Gold: pricing the inflationary character of an oil-shock war, which makes the Fed more likely to raise rates, which is negative for non-yielding gold
- Copper: pricing a multi-year structural supply deficit and a new demand source (AI infrastructure) that has little to do with the Middle East
- Equities: pricing a probable US-Iran deal — the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,519.12 (+0.61%) and the Nasdaq hit a record 26,656.18 (+1.19%), with Micron leading chip stocks higher 31
These four narratives can coexist temporarily but they are logically inconsistent. If a deal actually materializes, oil falls sharply, the inflation spike reverses, rate-hike odds recede, gold recovers, and equities may give back some of the peace premium on relief-selling. If the conflict intensifies, Fesharaki's July oil spike scenario becomes live, inflation accelerates, the Fed faces impossible choices, and the S&P 500's war-deal optimism unwinds. Copper is the one market that likely holds in either scenario, given the LME inventory floor and the AI demand trend's independence from Middle East geopolitics.
On the macro data front, the Conference Board's May Consumer Confidence Index came in at 93.1, slightly above the 91.9 estimate but down 0.7 from April's 93.8. 34 Conference Board Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson noted: "Consumer confidence edged downward in May as the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East intensified." 2434
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo summarized the state of play on crude: "We are still waiting for more details on a potential deal. Meanwhile we see renewed tensions in the Middle East, while flows through the Strait remain restricted." 8
Watch list for the next 48 hours
| Date | Event | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Wed May 27 | CONAB Brazil crop update | Safrinha corn; 99–112 MMT range narrows |
| Wed May 27 | EIA weekly ethanol report (week ending May 22) | Corn demand confirmation |
| Thu May 28 | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (week ending May 22) | First crude inventory read since May 15 |
| Thu May 28 | PCE inflation data (April) | Key Fed catalyst; gold and rate positioning |
| Jun 7 | OPEC+ meeting | +188K bpd July hike expected |
| Jun 17 | First FOMC under Warsh | Rate hold near-certain; tone scrutinized |
| Jun 30 | USDA Acreage Report | Confirms corn/soybean planting shifts |
Cover image: Strait of Hormuz oil tanker transit, Reuters
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