Oil surges 5% as Iran deal collapses; gold falls on ISM shock; copper gains 2.6%
Monday's June 1 session opened with a geopolitical detonation: Iran suspended indirect talks with the US, sending WTI CLN6 up 4.94% to $92.16 and Brent ~+4.2% to ~$94.98 — the sharpest single-day crude surge since the conflict began. COMEX Gold GCM6 fell $85.30 (−1.87%) to $4,475.20 as ISM Manufacturing PMI's four-year high of 54.0 strengthened the dollar and squeezed safe-haven demand. Copper HGN6 gained ~+2.56% to $6.5525 on China's Caixin PMI beat and a Morgan Stanley forecast of a 600,000-tonne 2026 deficit. Grains drifted lower on excellent crop conditions.
Monday's session opened June with a detonation. Iran suspended indirect talks with the US on June 1, the MOU that briefly drove crude down 19% in May stopped looking like a done deal, and the market repriced fast. WTI CLN6 settled at $92.16/bbl (+4.94%), Brent at ~$94.98/bbl (+4.2%), marking the sharpest single-session surge since the conflict began in February. Gold dropped $85.30 (−1.87%) as the ISM Manufacturing PMI printed a four-year high of 54.0, strengthening the dollar and squeezing the safe-haven bid. Copper HGN6 gained +2.56% to $6.5525 on China's Caixin PMI beat and a tightening supply picture. Grains drifted lower on favorable crop conditions and fund liquidation. The S&P 500 notched its eighth consecutive all-time high.
The read for positioning: the Iran premium that markets spent all of May unwinding just started rebuilding.
Settlement snapshot — June 1 vs. May 29
| Contract | Settlement | Change | % Change | May 29 close | Data status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold Jun (GCM6) | $4,475.20/oz | −$85.30 | −1.87% | $4,560.50 | CME confirmed |
| NYMEX WTI Jul (CLN6) | $92.16/bbl | +$4.34 | +4.94% | $87.82 | CME confirmed |
| Brent Jul (BZN6) | ~$94.98/bbl | +$3.86 | ~+4.2% | $92.05 est. | ⚠ Continuous contract — OHLC/Vol/OI unavailable |
| CBOT Corn Jul (ZCN6) | 444.00¢/bu | −2.75¢ | −0.62% | 446.75¢ | ⚠ MW continuous fallback; CME official pending |
| CBOT Soybeans Jul (ZSN6) | 1,180.75¢/bu | −6.00¢ | −0.51% | 1,186.75¢ | ⚠ MW continuous fallback; CME official pending |
| COMEX Copper Jul (HGN6) | $6.5525/lb | +$0.1650 | +2.56% | $6.3875 | ⚠ HG00 continuous — June 1 CME page pending |
Data note: CME official June 1 settlements for corn, soybeans, and copper had not refreshed at collection time (grains carry a +1 business-day publication lag after weekends; copper HGN6 MarketWatch page returned empty content). Settlements for ZCN6, ZSN6, and HGN6 above use MarketWatch continuous-contract prices (C00, S00, HG00) as fallback. HG00 volume of ~140 contracts is anomalously low vs. the 65-session average of 43,810 — treat the copper price as directionally reliable but treat the volume figure as suspect pending CME confirmation. Brent BZN6 OHLC, volume, and open interest are unavailable; the $94.98 figure uses the Reuters/unit-energy-drivers source. 789
Crude oil: Iran kills the deal, WTI surges to $92
Vessels anchored off Musandam, Oman — the entry point to the Strait of Hormuz 10
WTI opened Monday at $88.50, moved sideways for about two hours, then started accelerating after Iran's Tasnim news agency announced Tehran was suspending indirect talks and text exchanges with the US. 11 The front-month hit an intraday high of $94.78 — a $6.33 swing representing 7.16% of Friday's close — before paring gains when Trump posted on Truth Social that talks were continuing "at a rapid pace." WTI settled at $92.16, up $4.34 (+4.94%) with volume of 287,760 contracts, roughly 192% of the 65-session average of 149,570. 2 Brent moved in lock-step: Reuters pegged the settlement at approximately $94.98/bbl (+4.2%). 12
The catalyst was unambiguous. Iran's Parliament Speaker and lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, citing Israel's expanded ground assault in Lebanon, announced that Tehran's negotiating team was pulling back from all mediated communication. 11 Ghalibaf also posted on X: "Tehran gains concessions through military pressure rather than dialogue ... We take concessions not through talks, but with missiles." 13 Iran's semi-official news agencies added that the "Axis of Resistance" has placed on the agenda the complete closure of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the southern gateway through which Saudi Arabia moves 4–6 million barrels per day. 11
Trump's response came in two contradictory forms within the same hour. He told CNBC's Eamon Javers: "I really don't care. I couldn't care less. I think they took too much time. Frankly, I thought they started to get very boring." 14 Then he told the same outlet: "I think the oil will be dropping like a rock in the very near, you know, the very near distance." 14 Oil declined several dollars off the intraday high on the Truth Social follow-up, but the rebound faded quickly and crude settled well above the gap opening.
Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, framed the endgame risk: "It just seems that both sides are in different worlds. The longer the conflict continues, the lower commercial inventories will get... at which time prices spike. We are only a month or two away from that." 12
The MOU: three rounds of edits, still no signature
The backdrop to Monday's blowup is a draft agreement that has been sent back to Iran for the third time. 15 The core framework — a 60-day ceasefire extension, Strait of Hormuz reopened toll-free, US naval blockade lifted, and a nuclear negotiation framework — remains unresolved on two sticking points: the timeline for Hormuz reopening, and whether Iran's roughly 1,000 lbs of 60%-enriched uranium gets diluted or removed from the country. 15 Iran is demanding immediate release of ~$24 billion in frozen assets upon signing; Trump wants compliance milestones attached to any sanctions relief. 13
The Soufan Center's analysis put the underlying problem plainly: "It has never been clear whether the two sides have been working on the same version of the MOU" — a predictable outcome when negotiations pass through Pakistani and Qatari intermediaries rather than direct contact. 13 Over the weekend, the situation escalated further: US CENTCOM launched "self-defense strikes" on Iranian radar installations and drone sites at Goruk and Qeshm Island; Iran's IRGC retaliated by targeting a US-used airbase; Kuwait intercepted incoming missiles and drones. 16
Gasoline inventories: the clock that matters more than the MOU
The market's most underpriced variable may not be the diplomatic track at all. US gasoline inventories fell to 211.6 million barrels as of the week ending May 22 — down 47.5 million barrels in 15 weeks from a February starting point of 259.1 million, the largest February-to-May drawdown in EIA records going back to 1990. 17 The Strategic Petroleum Reserve shed another 9.1 million barrels in the latest reporting week — the largest single-week withdrawal in history — and now sits 36.2 million barrels below year-ago levels. 17 US retail gasoline averaged $4.33/gallon, up roughly 50% since the conflict began February 28.
Robert Rapier summarized the directional problem in Forbes: "The concern is not simply where gasoline inventories are today. It is how quickly the cushion disappeared before summer demand reached its peak." 17 Gavin Maguire of Reuters/Hydrocarbon Processing put it in physical terms: "A near-record run of U.S. gasoline inventory drawdowns is flashing a stark warning for fuel markets: the system is losing its buffer just as seasonal demand crests." 18
CIBC's Rebecca Babin told CNBC on Monday: expect higher oil prices if Hormuz flows remain below 50% by end of June. 14 Rystad Energy's scenario analysis has oil reaching $180/bbl by August under a re-escalation outcome. Goldman Sachs still forecasts Brent at $90/bbl for Q4 2026, but flags risks as "two-sided." 12
OPEC+ raises July quota while actual output collapses
Seven OPEC+ core members held a virtual ministerial meeting Monday and, per Reuters sources, were expected to approve a +188,000 bpd July output target increase — continuing the gradual unwinding of the 1.65 million bpd production cut agreed in 2023. 10 The symbolic nature of the decision was not lost on markets: the group's actual production had already collapsed from 42.77 million bpd in February to 33.19 million bpd in April, as Gulf member exports were curtailed by the Hormuz crisis. 10 The UAE exited OPEC in May after nearly 60 years of membership, reducing the unwinding coalition from 8 to 7. A second meeting — the June 7 Ordinary Ministerial Meeting — is not expected to produce policy changes.
One secondary supply signal: Russia's diesel output fell another ~10% in May, its second consecutive monthly decline of that magnitude, following Ukrainian drone strikes on four key refineries. 12 Moscow simultaneously announced a ban on jet fuel exports through November 30, 2026, to stabilize domestic supply. 12 Russian diesel output is now cumulatively down approximately 20% from pre-attack levels.
Shipping reality: a signed MOU won't reopen Hormuz overnight
The physical realities remained bleak regardless of diplomatic posture. Oman's Maritime Security Centre issued a navigation warning May 30 after a suspected floating mine was sighted west of the Inshore Traffic Zone inside Hormuz. 19 Of the 109 large non-Iranian tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf since February 28, only 29 have escaped, some with AIS transponders switched off and US informational support. 20
At the Posidonia maritime conference, shipping executives delivered a consistent message: a ceasefire is necessary but not sufficient. Heidmar President Pankaj Khanna: "Even if a peace deal was signed, that needs to be clarified and that we don't know as yet." 21 BIMCO has separately warned that restoring confidence for insurers and shipowners will require weeks of mine-clearance operations after any agreement. 21 George Procopiou, founder of Dynacom Tankers, at Posidonia: "Freedom of navigation is essential and nobody can impose tolls or any other burden." 21
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Gold: ISM shock + stronger dollar overwhelm safe-haven bid
COMEX Gold GCM6 opened at $4,523.50, hit a session high of $4,541.40 in early trading, then plunged after the ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 54.0 at 10:00 a.m. ET. 22 The intraday low of $4,449.70 came within minutes of the data release. 22 Spot gold settled around $4,482.30 according to Kitco's PM Report, down 1.26% on the day; the CME-confirmed GCM6 settlement is $4,475.20, down $85.30 (−1.87%) from Friday's close. 123
Volume was just 835 contracts — 1% of the 65-session average of 100,410 — reflecting the June front-month's imminent expiry and the migration of open interest to August (GCQ6, which carries 261,368 contracts). Open interest in GCM6 dropped from 25,381 to 2,362, down 90.7%. 1
The transmission mechanism ran through the dollar and rates. A 54.0 ISM print — vs. consensus of 50.6 and April's 52.7, the highest reading since May 2022 — 24 strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates higher for longer. The DXY rose to 99.368 (+0.36%) by the close. 25 The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to approximately 4.457%, up about 1.4 basis points from Friday. 25
Oil's 5% surge added a second headwind: rising crude lifts inflation expectations and real rates simultaneously, reducing gold's attractiveness relative to yield-bearing instruments. The Kitco PM Report noted the direct transmission chain: oil rallied on Iran deadlock, bond yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and gold fell — even as the geopolitical risk that would normally support gold intensified. 23
ISM detail: supply chains tightening, costs still hot
The ISM report itself carried meaningful commodity signals beyond the headline number. 24 Key sub-indices:
| Sub-index | May 2026 | Apr 2026 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 56.8 | 54.1 | Expanding, 5th straight month |
| Production | 54.3 | 53.4 | Expanding, 7th straight month |
| Employment | 48.6 | 46.4 | Contracting, 32nd straight month — improving |
| Supplier Deliveries | 60.6 | 60.6 | Slowing deliveries (>50 = slower), 6th straight month |
| Prices Paid | 82.1 | 84.6 | Elevated; 66.3% of respondents reported price increases |
| Backlog of Orders | 52.2 | 51.4 | Returned to expansion |
Copper was listed among commodities with price increases for the 11th consecutive month. 24 Iran was mentioned in 42% of respondent comments — the highest share for any geopolitical event since the pandemic. 26 ISM survey chair Susan Spence noted: "In May, 25 percent of the comments were positive and 69 percent negative, with a 1-to-2.7 ratio of positive to negative sentiment." 24 One respondent in the transportation equipment sector put the supply constraint plainly: "Supply constraints continue to propagate and are a key headwind to supporting increased aerospace and defense demand." 24
Pantheon Macroeconomics senior US economist Oliver Allen flagged the durability question: "The durability of this manufacturing upturn remains in doubt. Many companies are bringing forward orders and activity to build inventories to protect against supply chain disruptions. That lift likely will be short-lived." 26
Gold: UBS cuts year-end target; Warsh era watch
UBS cut its 2026 year-end gold price forecast from $5,900 to $5,500/oz, citing persistently elevated Treasury yields and dollar strength. 27 The revision implies UBS still expects a ~$1,000 rally from Monday's close to year-end. UBS analysts Dominic Schnider and Wayne Gordon explained the short-term drag: "Markets are rediscovering the concept of opportunity cost, with gold's non-yielding characteristics once again becoming a more important consideration as real rates remain elevated." 27 UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo added the structural underpinning: "Over the medium term, we expect gold to move higher amid elevated global debt burdens, persistent fiscal deficits in the US, and continued reserve diversification trends." 27
Central bank demand from Q1 2026 grew 17% quarter-on-quarter. 28 The next hard catalyst for gold remains the June 17 FOMC — Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair. Market pricing as of Monday puts the probability of a rate hike by year-end at roughly 60%, compared with pre-conflict expectations of cuts. 25 The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q2 estimate was revised down from 3.8% to 3.0% during the session. 25
Silver settled at $74.795/oz, down 0.64%, underperforming gold. 23
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Copper: demand signals deliver 2.6% gain; Section 232 next catalyst
COMEX Copper HGN6 settled Monday at an estimated $6.5525/lb (via HG00 continuous contract), up approximately $0.165 (+2.56%) from Friday's CME-confirmed close of $6.3875. 6 The intraday range was tight — $6.5570–$6.5705 — and the year-to-date gain stands at +13%, with a one-month gain of +11.96%. 29
Two demand-side catalysts drove the move. China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May printed 51.8, beating consensus of 51.4. 30 The Caixin PMI, which captures the private-sector and export-oriented manufacturing segment, had pushed copper futures approximately 1.5% higher in Asia early Monday morning. 31 The US ISM print of 54.0 — copper's 11th consecutive month on the price-increase list — then delivered a second punch. 24
The supply side is deteriorating faster than either PMI reflects. Morgan Stanley is projecting a 600,000-tonne refined copper deficit for 2026 — the largest in more than 20 years. JPMorgan forecasts a 330,000-tonne deficit; ICSG has revised its 2026 projection from a 209,000-tonne surplus (as of October 2025) to a 150,000-tonne deficit. 32 Chile's March copper output fell 9.04% year-on-year to 434,314 tonnes: Codelco down 10%, BHP's Escondida down 15.75%, Collahuasi down 10.80%. 32 Freeport-McMoRan has pushed its Grasberg (Indonesia) full-production restart to 2028, cutting 2026 guidance by 35%.
A secondary supply constraint has emerged via the Hormuz crisis itself: China halted sulfuric acid exports in May 2026, and roughly 80% of the sulfur used in Congolese copper processing arrives through Middle East trade routes. Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula operation in the DRC remains production-constrained by acid shortages. Spot sulfuric acid in Chile has risen to approximately $400/tonne. 32 Marimaca Copper CEO Hayden Locke noted: "Today the spot price for sulfuric acid, because of what's happening around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, is more than $400 per tonne. On a self-produced basis, we believe we can produce acid for less than $250 per tonne." 32
LME New Orleans warehouse canceled warrants topped 33,275 tonnes in late May, signaling active inventory drawdown ahead of potential US tariff implementation. 32 Smelter treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) across Japanese and Korean facilities have fallen to zero or below — meaning smelters are paying miners for concentrate, a measure of raw material scarcity last seen at this depth in 2015. 33 The US Section 232 copper tariff review decision is expected before mid-June 2026; Goldman Sachs projects a tariff of at least 25%. 32 That decision is the market's next hard binary for COMEX copper positioning.
UBS's Staunovo, summarizing the metals complex: "We project further supply shortages for copper and aluminum, which should support prices over the medium term, while structural drivers (e.g., electrification) underpin long-term demand." 27
Grains: bears in control as crop conditions debut strong
CBOT settlements
CBOT grains settled lower across the board Monday. July corn (ZCN6) closed at 444.00¢/bu, down 2¾¢ (−0.62%), touching its lowest level in more than three months. 34 Intraday range: 440.00¢–449.25¢; volume of 214,240 contracts was 103% of average. 4 July soybeans (ZSN6) settled at 1,180.75¢/bu, down 6.00¢ (−0.51%), with a near-month decline larger than the deferred contracts — the classic bear-spreading structure that signals nearby contract weakness. 535 Soybean oil bucked the grain complex, gaining 1.37¢ (to 79.09¢/lb) as crude oil's surge lifted the biofuel's energy premium. 34 July Chicago wheat settled at 608¾¢ (−1¾¢); July Kansas City HRW settled at 647¢ (−2¾¢); spring wheat led the downside at 652¢ (−11¾¢) after weekend rains improved the northern Plains outlook.
Jim Wyckoff of Pro Farmer captured the session's mood at the open: "The corn and wheat bulls are starting the month of June on their heels, while the soybean market has stabilized." 36 Total Farm Marketing's daily summary noted: "Money flows have continued to leave the corn market as bullish stories have been fading." Managed funds had already liquidated 87,850 net long corn positions as of the CFTC data through May 26, with net length still sizable at 205,504 contracts. 34 A further unwind is possible if weather remains favorable and new bullish catalysts don't emerge before the July 4th weather market window.
Crop progress: opening ratings above average
USDA released its first corn and soybean condition ratings of the 2026 season Monday afternoon. 37
| Crop | Planted | 5-yr avg | G/E rating | 5-yr avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 93% | 92% | 67% | 59% (DTN) |
| Soybeans | 87% | 80% | 66% | n/a (first rating) |
| Spring wheat | 94% | n/a | 47% | n/a (first rating) |
Source: 37
Iowa corn rated 82% good-to-excellent; Illinois at 65%. Only 5% of the corn crop was rated very poor to poor — a decidedly bearish opening condition for bulls. 37 The exception was Ohio, where wet fieldwork conditions left corn planting at 73% (vs. 83% five-year average) and soybean planting at 68% (vs. 75% average). 38
DTN meteorologist John Baranick noted: "Some areas of the country had some really good rainfall over the weekend, including a lot of drought areas in the Plains and Southeast. A few got a little too much rain, inducing some flooding in Kansas and Missouri that may hold back some areas from good growth." 37
Export inspections: corn ahead, soybeans slip
USDA's weekly export inspections report (week ending May 28) confirmed corn moving briskly. 39
| Crop | Week ending May 28 | WoW | Cumulative 2025-26 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 68.0M bu (1.728 MMT) | +7.7% | 2.439B bu | +27% |
| Soybeans | 18.2M bu (494K MT) | −16% | 1.310B bu | −20% |
| Wheat | 14.8M bu (402K MT) | +6% | 879M bu | +9.3% |
Ben Potter of Farm Futures: "Corn volume still commands a solid lead over last year's pace in 2025-26." 39 The soybean cumulative deficit versus last year reflects, in part, China's zero-purchase streak in US soybeans — now extending past 111 consecutive days since February 9. 41 Former USDA Chief Economist Joe Glauber has flagged the structural hurdle: China agreed to buy 12 MMT of US soybeans this marketing year, but US ag exports to China through March 2026 tracked at $5.1 billion vs. $8.3 billion in 2024. Glauber: "For five months of the year in particular, we are the cheapest soybeans in the world, as long as we don't have to struggle with supplemental tariffs." 41 The 10% surcharge on top of the base 3% tariff remains in place.
South American supply headwinds
Argentina's wheat and barley export duties dropped from 7.5% to 5.5% effective June 1 — a step in a longer reform plan that targets soybean export taxes declining from 33% to 15% by 2028. 42 Marc Rosenbohm of Terrain Analytics explained the transmission: "The Argentina farmer would see a bit higher price domestically, which incentivizes a bit of an area response and that could push down global prices for those products a bit. The primary effect on U.S. producers would be a bit lower prices because of the extra supply." 42 The primary impact on US farmers is expected to crystallize when the soybean export tax cuts take full effect in 2028. Argentina's corn harvest has already reached a record 64 MMT, up 15 MMT from last year's drought-stressed crop. 43
El Niño watch: 82% probability by July
The US Climate Prediction Center raised the probability of El Niño forming by end of July to 82%, with a 67% chance of a strong or "super" event. 44 USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey framed the near-term outlook as "an overall positive for US farmers" but cautioned the effect won't arrive quickly: "El Niño is not going to automatically and rapidly change conditions in the U.S., but certainly, as we move into October and beyond, there is optimism for drought relief, particularly in the southern half of the U.S." 44 The global risk is not symmetric: Australia, Indonesia, India, and South Africa could face dryness, and a weaker Indian monsoon is possible. For summer 2026, the Corn Belt pattern remains neutral-to-favorable.
Farm bankruptcies: six-year high
April 2026 brought 62 Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings, up 130% year-on-year and the highest monthly total since February 2020. 45 Austin Peiffer of Ag and Business Legal Strategies: "We have a war in Iran that's affecting oil and fertilizer prices. We still have weak commodity prices, and we don't have a full-fledged farm bill, so I don't expect any great improvements in the near future." 45
Macro dashboard — June 1
| Indicator | Reading | Change | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) | 54.0 | +1.3 | 52.7 (Apr) |
| China Caixin Mfg PMI (May) | 51.8 | −0.4 | 52.2 (Apr) |
| China Official Mfg PMI (May) | 50.0 | −0.3 | 50.3 (Apr) |
| DXY | 99.368 | +0.36% | 98.88 |
| 10Y Treasury yield | ~4.457% | +1.4 bps | 4.443% |
| S&P 500 | 7,599.96 | +0.26% | ATH (8th straight) |
| Dow Jones | 51,078.88 | +0.09% | ATH |
| Nasdaq | 27,086.81 | +0.42% | ATH |
| Russell 2000 | 2,905.76 | −0.50% | — |
| VIX | 16.05 | +4.77% | — |
| Nikkei 225 | 66,934.33 | ATH | — |
| Korea Kospi | 8,788.38 | +3.70% | ATH |
The S&P 500's eighth straight record close came despite a 5% crude spike — technology and energy stocks absorbed the shock while small-caps (Russell 2000, −0.50%) bore the brunt of higher-rate fears. 23 Korea's Kospi surged 3.7% on a 53.2% year-on-year jump in Korean semiconductor exports. 31
The ISM 54.0 print is the session's most consequential macro read. It argues that US industrial activity is accelerating even as the Iran war acts as a drag on supply chains — a combination consistent with inflation staying elevated. Prices Paid at 82.1 (still running near multi-decade highs despite the 2.5-point dip from April) means input cost pressure is not abating. 24 High Frequency Economics chief economist Carl Weinberg noted diesel at $5.40/gallon last week and warned manufacturers will pass those transport costs through as quickly as possible — keeping the Fed on alert. 26
Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting remains June 17. His stated view since assuming the chair on May 29 — rate cuts are "off the menu," neutral rate at 3.75–4.00% vs. the current 3.50–3.75% funds rate — implies the next move is a hike, not a cut. 28 Market pricing on Monday put the probability of at least one hike by year-end at roughly 60%. 25
Week-ahead watch
The Iran situation is the primary variable with no calendar anchor. The immediate price risk runs asymmetric: a sudden diplomatic breakthrough would reprice crude lower and support gold via dollar weakness; a continued stalemate, or any escalation toward a Bab el-Mandeb closure, sends energy higher. Gasoline inventories have lost 47.5 million barrels of buffer heading into peak summer demand season — there is less room to absorb further disruption than there was in February.
Key scheduled events:
| Date | Release | Commodity relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Tue June 2 | JOLTs job openings (Apr) | Fed rate path; gold, DXY |
| Tue June 2/3 | OPEC+ formal communiqué expected | Crude price setting |
| Wed June 3 | ADP Employment; ISM Services PMI | Inflation persistence; gold |
| Wed June 3 | EIA weekly petroleum status | Crude inventory; gasoline draw pace |
| Thu June 4 | Weekly jobless claims | Labor market; Fed |
| Thu June 4 | USDA weekly export sales | Corn, soybeans |
| Fri June 5 | May Non-Farm Payrolls | Dollar; gold catalyst |
| ~June 5 | Saudi Aramco July OSP | Crude benchmarks; Asia buyers |
| ~Mid-June | US Section 232 copper tariff decision | Copper COMEX positioning |
| June 17 | Warsh's first FOMC meeting | Rates; gold; DXY |
Data flags: (1) CBOT corn and soybean settlements use MarketWatch continuous contracts (C00, S00) as fallback; CME official ZCN6/ZSN6 June 1 trade-date pages had not yet refreshed at collection time. (2) Brent BZN6 OHLC, volume, and open interest are unavailable — the $94.98 figure is sourced from Reuters energy reporting and the unit-energy-drivers research file; treat as a directional estimate. (3) COMEX copper HGN6 June 1 settlement uses the HG00 continuous contract ($6.5525); the HGN26 MarketWatch page returned empty content and the CME copper settlement page was pending refresh. HG00 volume of ~140 contracts is anomalously low and should not be cited as a liquidity measure.
AI-generated cover image.
封面图：AI 生成示意图
References
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- 2CLN26 — MarketWatch
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- 4C00 Corn Continuous — MarketWatch
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- 5S00 Soybeans Continuous — MarketWatch
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- 6HG00 Copper Continuous — MarketWatch
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- 7CME Corn Settlements
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- 8CME Soybean Settlements
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- 9CME Copper Settlements
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- 41Brownfield Ag News: Former USDA economist questions China's soybean commitments
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- 42Brownfield Ag News: Argentina export tax cuts could pressure U.S. grain markets
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- 43World Perspectives: Mercosur Regional Analysis
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- 45Brownfield Ag News: Farm bankruptcies hit a six-year high
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