Gold defies Warsh; WTI posts worst month since 2020 as Iran deal hangs on Trump
Friday's session wrapped May with a split verdict: COMEX gold settled at $4,560.50 (+1.51%) defying Warsh's hawkish signal, while WTI fell to $87.82 (−1.21%) completing a 19% monthly collapse — crude's worst month since April 2020. USDA export sales met estimates; Chicago PMI 62.7 shocked to the upside. Trump's Iran MOU decision over the weekend is the overriding variable entering June.
Friday's session closed out May with a split verdict across commodity markets. Gold settled at $4,560.50/oz (+1.51%) despite the new Federal Reserve Chair's clearest signal yet that rate cuts are off the table. WTI extended its May collapse to −19% — the steepest monthly drawdown since April 2020 — settling at $87.82 on ceasefire optimism even as the Strait of Hormuz remained physically blocked and IEA, IMF, World Bank, and WTO issued a rare joint warning on record-pace inventory drawdowns. Grains fell across the board, dragged by crude sympathy selling despite a solid USDA export sales print. Copper gave back 0.60% after leading Thursday's complex. The S&P 500 hit its seventh consecutive record close at 7,580.
Settlement snapshot — May 29 vs. May 28
| Contract | Settlement | Change | % Change | May 28 close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold Jun (GCM6) | $4,560.50/oz | +$68.00 | +1.51% | $4,492.50 |
| NYMEX WTI Jul (CLN6) | $87.82/bbl | −$1.08 | −1.21% | $88.90 |
| ICE Brent Jul (BZCN6) | $92.05/bbl | −$1.66 | −1.77% | $93.71 |
| CBOT Corn Jul (ZCN6) | 446.75¢/bu | −9.00¢ | −1.97% | ~455.75¢ |
| CBOT Soybeans Jul (ZSN6) | 1,186.75¢/bu | −7.75¢ | −0.65% | ~1,194.50¢ |
| COMEX Copper Jul (HGN6) | $6.3875/lb | −$0.0385 | −0.60% | $6.4260 |
Data note: CBOT corn and soybean settlements are sourced from MarketWatch continuous contracts (C00 and S00) as CME official ZCN6/ZSN6 settlement pages had not yet refreshed to the May 29 trade date at collection time. 78 COMEX Gold CME page similarly pending refresh; $4,560.50 from MarketWatch GCM26. 9
Gold: Warsh's rate-cut freeze didn't stick
Gold opened the session at $4,494 and dipped to an intraday low of $4,487.90 early, reflecting continued positioning unwind after Thursday's PCE data. 1 By mid-morning it had recovered toward $4,530, and an early burst toward $4,591.80 — the session high — was met with profit-taking. Gold pulled back below $4,500 briefly in the afternoon before closing at $4,560.50, up $68 on the day. 10
Volume collapsed to 1,640 contracts — roughly 2% of the 65-session average of 100,550 — as the June front-month contract approaches expiration and participants roll to August. Open interest dropped 6,427 to 25,381. 1
The macro setup going into Friday was bearish for gold on its face. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 15th Federal Reserve Chair on May 29 and held his inaugural weekly breakfast with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Bloomberg's headline read: "The Debut Bessent-Warsh Breakfast Left Fed Rate Cuts Off the Menu." 11 Warsh, who takes office with the Fed's balance sheet at $6.71 trillion, has signaled he wants balance-sheet reduction to proceed alongside unchanged rates — effectively a tightening bias. His 2006–2011 FOMC voting record skews hawkish on inflation. 12
Seven Fed officials spoke Friday. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari delivered the most market-relevant line: "It's too early to conclude that interest rates need to rise." 13 New York Fed President John Williams spoke at 8:55 a.m. ET, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem at 10:15 a.m. ET, and Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee, and Jefferson each reinforced vigilance on inflation through the day. 14 The current funds rate stands at 3.50%–3.75%, with April FOMC minutes showing three dissents against the easing bias and CME FedWatch pricing a greater probability of a hike than a cut by year-end.
Gold held above $4,500 anyway. The logic is not clean but it is consistent: when traders believe the Fed is behind the inflation curve, gold attracts as an inflation hedge rather than a rate-sensitive instrument. Adam Button of Forexlive.com put it directly: "The Fed can't even get to neutral, and that's what the dissents were about. If the central bank is on top of inflation, you'll see a lid on gold. When the market realizes the central bank is behind the curve on inflation, and that inflation could become disorderly, that will be bullish for gold." 15
The DXY settled at 98.88, off 0.14% from Thursday's 99.02. 16 The 10-year Treasury yield eased 0.5 basis points to 4.443%. 17 Modest dollar softness and the Iran ceasefire uncertainty — which left geopolitical risk premium unresolved — were the proximate support for gold on a day when hawkish Fed signals should have pressured it.
Weekly context and the backward war trade
The week's gold story is a V-shaped reversal from a near-200-day moving average test. Thursday's spot low hit $4,365.85 — the lowest in four weeks, piercing the 200-day moving average for the first time in two years. Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex noted: "The yellow metal had been sold through the 200-day moving average earlier the session for the first time in two years." 15 Spot gold recovered $229 from that low to Friday's high of $4,594.92 before settling at $4,539.03 in spot terms (+0.99%), with the week ending −0.22%.
The Iran trade has operated in reverse throughout the conflict that began in late February. As Adam Hamilton analyzed for Investing.com, since Trump's campaign against Iran opened, gold has fallen approximately 15.3% — the opposite of the 7.5% two-week rally gold posted when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The explanation Hamilton points to: Turkey's central bank sold 52.4 tonnes of gold in a single week in mid-March to defend the lira (about 10% of its reserves), an emergency EM piggy-bank liquidation that hammered prices over 8 trading days. India's doubling of gold import duties from 6% to 15% in mid-May added an estimated 180 tonne annualized demand reduction. 18 Hamilton's argument: these are transitory distortions, not structural, and the longer Hormuz stays closed the more bullish gold's medium-term outlook becomes on energy-driven inflation.
Structural demand from central banks is intact. World Gold Council Q1 2026 data shows global central banks net-purchased 243.7 tonnes — in line with the 8-quarter average of 242.8 tonnes. 15 The People's Bank of China added 8 tonnes in April for its 18th consecutive month of reported purchases. Goldman Sachs estimates central banks will average 60 tonnes per month in 2026. 19 US equity investors hold only 0.36% of portfolio weight in gold — $247 billion across GLD, IAU, and GLDM combined versus a $68.4 trillion S&P 500 market cap — leaving a structural reallocation argument open if equities falter. 18
Technical levels heading into the weekend
Kitco's PM report flagged resistance at $4,550/$4,576, support at $4,526/$4,500, with bull targets at $4,600/$4,660 and bear targets back toward $4,460. 10 Kitco's weekly sentiment survey flipped firmly bullish: 9 of 12 analysts (75%) call the next week up. 15 The June 17 FOMC — Warsh's first — is the next hard catalyst. Bob Haberkorn of StoneX described it as "the most critical date to watch for gold and the broader markets." 15
CPM Group issued a sell recommendation valid May 29 through June 12, with an initial downside target of $4,375 and a stop at $4,610 — a contrarian note against the week's bullish sentiment shift. 20
Silver settled at $75.275, down 0.51%, lagging gold for the session. 10
WTI / Brent: May's 19% rout closes on a ceasefire bet nobody can verify
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WTI fell to an intraday low of $86.35 before recovering to settle at $87.82, down $1.08 (−1.21%). 2 Brent marked its eighth consecutive session of losses, settling at $92.05, off $1.66 (−1.77%). 3 On the week, Brent fell roughly 11% — its steepest seven-day decline in seven weeks. WTI dropped over 9%, the largest weekly loss in six weeks. Both benchmarks hit their lowest levels since mid-April.
For May as a whole, WTI is tracking a 19% decline — the biggest monthly drop since April 2020, when COVID demand destruction sent crude into negative territory. 21 WTI was trading above $105 as recently as May 18 — 17 trading days ago, a $17.65 decline in under three weeks.
Volume in WTI was 242,510 contracts, 165% of the 65-session average. 2 Heating oil settled at $3.537/gal (−2.25%), gasoline at $3.034/gal (−2.14%), natural gas at $3.290 (+0.15%). 22
The Iran MOU: a deal both sides describe differently
The 60-day ceasefire memorandum of understanding reached in Doha on May 28 remains in limbo. Trump posted on Truth Social Friday that he was heading to the Situation Room to make a final determination, demanding: "The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions." 23 Iran's Fars news agency said the strait would reopen "according to its own pre-determined arrangements." Reuters characterized both sides' descriptions of the deal as "somewhat different." 22
VP JD Vance described the two sides as still "going back and forth" on nuclear language as of May 28. 24 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated his position plainly: "Nothing is going to be on the table until we see the Strait of Hormuz open and the Iranians agree that they have to turn over the highly enriched uranium." 25
The political commentary from both parties was pointed. Former National Security Advisor John Bolton called it "a big defeat for the United States," arguing the deal is driven by Trump's fear of high gasoline prices ahead of midterms and would give Iran time to rebuild. 24 Former NSA Jake Sullivan, who served under Biden, called it "the best of the very bad outcomes available to him," saying Trump "tried to bomb Iran, he tried to blockade Iran, he tried to bully Iran, and he is stuck." 25 Trump's parallel demand to fold Abraham Accords expansion into the Iran framework met immediate rejection — Pakistan declined outright, and Qatar was described by a former Netanyahu adviser as an "enemy of Israel." 26
John Kilduff of Again Capital captured the market's posture: "Obviously, the market thinks the ceasefire will be all easy-peasy and is done and dusted." He added: "The questions are when are we going to open the strait? I wonder when are we going to hit the bottoms of the tanks. I'm surprised prices aren't higher." 22 UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo offered the counterpoint: "While oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain restricted and oil inventories keep falling, the market focus remains on the possibility of a deal between the U.S. and Iran. The price drop could be forcing some market players to close their long positions." 22
The physical reality: inventories draining, tankers still stuck
The signal contradicting the price action arrived in an unusual form Friday. The IEA, IMF, World Bank, and WTO — four of the world's largest economic institutions — issued a rare joint warning that global oil inventories are being "drawn down at a record pace in response to the major loss of supply through the Strait of Hormuz." 27 The institutions warned that continued drawdowns ahead of peak summer demand pose broader risks for fuel security and global economic resilience, with the heaviest burden on emerging-market energy importers. 28
Commercial transit through Hormuz remains minimal. Roughly one-quarter of non-Iranian large oil tankers trapped inside the Persian Gulf have managed to exit in what gCaptain described as a "slow, stealthy trickle." 29 Chevron CEO Mike Wirth disclosed that several vessels transiting Hormuz were attacked this week, calling the risks "very real." Chevron has stated it will not pay tolls. 30 The U.S. Treasury had already sanctioned Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority for "attempting to extort commercial vessels." Even if a diplomatic agreement is finalized, industry groups and shipping security analysts warned that shipowners will require independent verification of mine removal before resuming normal transit — a process that takes weeks, not days. 23
Japan's crude imports fell 66% year-on-year in April, illustrating the supply disruption's global reach. The Philippines received its first cargo of Iranian crude since the blockade began. India's central bank warned the oil price shock threatens near-term economic growth. 31
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned on Friday that the current energy price shock "cannot simply be dismissed as transitory," given already-elevated baseline inflation — a hawkish note that market participants appeared to set aside as they watched crude slide. 22
OPEC+ silent; Russia diesel down 20% cumulative
No OPEC+ emergency press release, statement, or weekend communication was issued on May 29. 21 The June 7 OPEC+ meeting and the previously announced +188,000 bpd production increase plan remain publicly unchanged. Saudi Arabia is expected to slash July official selling prices again for Asian buyers as spot Middle East crude premiums narrow. 32
Russian diesel output fell a further 10% in May, per Reuters data analysis — a cumulative decline of approximately 20% since March. 33 Four refineries remain offline following Ukrainian drone strikes, representing roughly 25% of Russian refining capacity. Drone-hit facilities reduced diesel output by up to 1 million metric tons in April and an additional 600,000 tons in May. From a March baseline of 7.5 million tons/month, cumulative output has contracted by more than 10%. 33 Industry sources told Reuters a blanket export ban is unlikely because it would compound the refineries' operational difficulties, even as the government still considers the option.
U.S. crude production held largely steady in March at 13.7 million barrels/day, per EIA. 34 The drilled-but-uncompleted well (DUC) inventory — the so-called "frack-log" that shale operators use to quickly boost output — is at a record low, constraining any rapid supply response to higher prices. 35 Separately, Kazakhstan's Tengiz field — the country's largest, operated by Chevron — saw production fall sharply on May 26 following an industrial accident, per two industry sources. 36
Commerzbank, in updated forecasts, projects Brent at $90/bbl by end-September and $85 by year-end, assuming the Hormuz strait remains closed to normal shipping for another two months — an outcome consistent with the current diplomatic timeline even under the most optimistic MOU scenario.
Copper: orderly fade on light rotation, structural bid intact
COMEX Copper Jul (HGN6) settled at $6.3875/lb, down $0.0385 (−0.60%), on volume of 30,090 contracts — 128% of the 65-session average of 23,540. Open interest was 145,823. 6 The Jun'26 contract (HGM26) settled at $6.3740, down $0.0220 (−0.34%).
The session's move was a modest reversal of Thursday's risk-on enthusiasm rather than a structural signal. LME spot copper (last available: May 27) was $13,540.50/tonne. 37 LME official data for May 29 was not accessible.
The structural backdrop remains taut. Last week's COMEX warehouse activity showed over 30,000 tonnes of copper canceled or warranted for delivery at New Orleans facilities, with cumulative canceled warrants reaching 45,675 tonnes — the largest single-week adjustment in months, as traders repositioned ahead of the June 30 U.S. refined copper import tariff decision. 37 The CME–LME price spread, which widened in anticipation of tariffs, continues to reflect that premium. Treatment charges (TC/RC) remain below negative $100/tonne, meaning smelters are paying miners for concentrate supply — a measure of concentrate scarcity not seen at this depth since at least 2015.
The International Copper Association Australia characterized the current pricing dynamic in its weekly brief: "Copper is at historically high levels, with pricing primarily driven by tariff expectations, geopolitical tensions, and tight physical supply rather than a single clear supply-demand signal. The market is in a fine balance, highly sensitive to changes in location, timing, and policy." 37 The June 30 tariff decision is the next hard binary — current CME pricing implies traders are not yet discounting a tariff reversal.
Grains: crude collapse and tepid export data trigger technical selling
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CBOT grains fell across the board Friday, with the decline most severe in corn and wheat. The two drivers were crude oil's further slide — which historically pressures grain through energy input costs and ethanol demand correlations — and USDA's export sales report, which beat headline estimates in corn but failed to produce the kind of blowout number that would flip fund positioning. Ben Potter of Farm Futures wrote: "Eroding energy futures led to a broad set of technical selling on Friday that ended the latest run on a sour note." 38
USDA weekly export sales: corn solid, soybeans pedestrian, wheat at marketing-year low
The USDA released the delayed weekly export sales report Friday morning, covering the week ending May 22. The headline numbers:
| Crop | Old-crop net sales | WoW | vs. 4-wk avg | Combined old+new | Analyst range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 39.97M bu (1,015,300 MT) | −52% | −30% | 64.4M bu | 33.5M–78.8M bu |
| Soybeans | 11.02M bu (299,900 MT) | −15% | +41% | 16.1M bu | 11.0M–25.7M bu |
| Wheat | −29.66M bu (net cancel) | — | — | 9.2M bu | 3.7M–20.2M bu |
Corn: Old-crop net sales of 39.97M bu fell sharply from the prior week's 94.8M bu, but combining old- and new-crop commitments reached 64.4M bushels — toward the high end of analyst estimates. Mexico (435,900 MT) and Colombia (251,500 MT) were the top old-crop buyers; Mexico and unknown destinations dominated new-crop at 249,900 MT and 197,500 MT respectively. Cumulative 2025/26 commitments stand at 3.184 billion bu, running 26% above last year's pace. 39 Potter noted the report "didn't have a lot of bullish data points for traders to digest," which contributed to selling pressure even as the total was within range. 39
Soybeans: Old-crop sales of 11.02M bu fell 15% week-on-week but remained 41% above the four-week average. The combined figure of 16.1M bu landed toward the low end of analyst estimates. China appeared in shipment destinations (21.0M bu total shipments, with China the top destination) but did not place new purchase commitments. China's zero flash-sale streak extended to 111 consecutive days since February 9. 38 A USDA daily flash sale of 7.1 million bushels of soybeans to unknown destinations broke a six-day flash-sale drought — but with 69% allocated to the 2026/27 crop year rather than old-crop, the support effect on near-term cash market was limited. 38
Wheat: Old-crop wheat posted a net reduction of 29.66 million bushels (−807,300 MT) — the marketing-year low for 2025/26, driven by large cancellations from key buyers. The 2025/26 marketing year ends May 31, making this the final old-crop report of the season. 40 New-crop sales were constructive at 38.86M bu, with Japan (252,100 MT) and the Philippines (166,900 MT) as leading buyers. John Perkins of Brownfield Ag News noted: "Big cancellations by several key buyers, but most of those key buyers also bought new-crop U.S. wheat." 40 Bruce Blythe of Farm Futures assessed: "U.S. wheat remains uncompetitive on global markets even after prices fell sharply since mid-May." 38
CBOT settlement detail
Corn July (ZCN6) settled at 446.75¢/bu, down 9.00¢ (−1.97%), after opening at 457.75¢ and touching an intraday low of 445.00¢. Volume was 226,510 contracts, 109% of the 65-session average. 4 The December contract settled at 475.00¢ (−7.25¢), September at 455.75¢ (−8.50¢). Bruce Blythe noted: "Corn technicals are ending the week on a soft note with July futures dropping near a six-week intraday low. Funds appear keen to further trim bullish bets that are growing dicier by the day." 38
Soybeans July (ZSN6) settled at 1,186.75¢/bu, down 7.75¢ (−0.65%), with an intraday range of 1,182.75¢–1,200.75¢. Volume of 106,650 contracts was 89% of average. 5 Soyoil bucked the trend, gaining 1.25% as the biofuels boom provided counter-trend support — soyoil touched a fresh 3.5-year high overnight. Blythe noted: "Soybean traders shrugged off weakness in crude oil and followed a resurgent soyoil futures market. The accelerating biofuels boom continues to drive buyers into the soy complex." 38
Chicago SRW wheat July fell 13.50¢ to $6.105/bu; KC HRW July fell 15.50¢ to $6.4975/bu. Live Cattle settled at 239.05 (−1.95), Lean Hogs at 99.50 (−2.625). 38
Crop conditions, weather, and WASDE context
The winter wheat crop held at 26% good/excellent as of the May 24 USDA condition report — down 1 percentage point week-on-week and the lowest for late May since 1986. 38 The poor-to-very-poor share rose 1 point to 44%, the highest for a comparable date since 2014. Kansas hard red winter (HRW) remains at 15% G/E. The weather outlook for early June is dry and warmer than normal for most of the central U.S., with seasonal rainfall expected in the Southern Plains and Mid-South between June 5–11. Blythe warned: "Dryness in Iowa and other parts of the central Corn Belt is gaining some attention, and a dry outlook for early June could become concerning if it extends later into the month." 38
Offsetting that weather uncertainty, analyst Bryce Knorr of Farm Futures noted an El Niño analog: if the current pattern holds, it could boost yields roughly 4%, to 190 bu/acre for corn and 55 bu/acre for soybeans. 41
The May WASDE (released May 13), whose 2026/27 projections provide the market's forward baseline, shows stock-to-use ratios tightening across all three major crops: corn at 12.1% (from 13.0%), soybeans at 6.9% (from 8.0%, the lowest since 2022/23), and wheat at 40.7% (from 46.1%), with wheat production down 21.3% year-on-year on drought. 42 OSU's Ani Katchova described the report's posture as "cautiously constructive, but not uniformly bullish." 42
Ethanol: StoneX projects USDA corn-use miss of 50–75M bu
EIA ethanol production for the week ending May 21 averaged 1.089 million barrels/day, down 2% week-on-week from 1.111M bpd. The four-week average is 1.075M bpd, up 4.7% year-on-year. StoneX analyst Randy Mittelstaedt issued a pointed assessment: "U.S. corn for ethanol usage is likely to fall 50 to 75 million bushels short of the USDA's current estimate without a material increase in overall ethanol production rates in the next couple of months, which we do not anticipate at this time." 41 USDA's current 2025/26 ethanol corn target is 5.6 billion bushels.
Farm economy backdrop: Chapter 12 bankruptcies hit six-year high
April 2026 brought 62 Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings — up 130% year-on-year and the highest single-month total since February 2020. The January–April 2026 cumulative count stands at 158. 43 Austin Peiffer of Ag and Business Legal Strategies cited the compounding pressure: "We have a war in Iran that's affecting oil and fertilizer prices. We still have weak commodity prices, and we don't have a full-fledged farm bill, so I don't expect any great improvements in the near future." 43
On the trade policy side, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed Friday that India committed to purchasing $500 billion of U.S. goods over five years, with energy, technology, and agriculture explicitly named. U.S.-India trade negotiations begin next week. Total Farm Marketing analyst Naomi Blohm noted that corn for ethanol, soybeans, and wheat stand as the commodities most likely to benefit from the India framework. 38
Argentina's export tax changes loom as the medium-term supply-side variable: the wheat/barley export tax cuts from 7.5% to 5.5% take effect in June 2026, saving exporters roughly $5–$5.60/MT. 44 Soybean export tax reductions are phased from January 2027. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange raised its Argentine corn production forecast to 64 MMT. Ukraine corn exports are already losing momentum under increased Argentine competition. 44
Macro dashboard — May 29
| Indicator | Reading | Change | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago PMI (May) | 62.7 | +13.5 | 49.2 (Apr) |
| Wholesale inventories (Apr, MoM) | +0.5% | −0.1pp | 1.5% (revised down) |
| Core PCE (Apr, YoY) | 3.3% | +0.1pp | 3.2% |
| Core PCE (Apr, MoM) | 0.2% | −0.1pp | 0.3% |
| Personal savings rate | 2.6% | — | prior |
| DXY | 98.88 | −0.14 | 99.02 |
| 10Y Treasury yield | 4.443% | −0.5 bps | 4.448% |
| S&P 500 | 7,580.06 | +0.22% | 7,563.48 |
| Dow Jones | 51,032.46 | +0.72% | 50,665.82 |
| Nasdaq | 26,972.62 | +0.20% | 26,918.52 |
| VIX | 15.32 | −2.67% | 15.74 |
The Chicago PMI's jump from 49.2 (contraction) to 62.7 against a 50.6 consensus was the session's most surprising data point. 45 A reading above 50 signals expansion; 62.7 represents an 18-month high for the index and is sharply inconsistent with the April ISM manufacturing contraction. The May number does not directly feed the ISM national survey, but it raised questions Friday about whether the manufacturing slowdown that markets had been pricing might already be reversing. That same Chicago PMI print briefly pressured gold — traders interpreted it as reducing the probability that the Fed can justify an easing stance — but the reversal was short-lived.
The week's data composite continues to paint a stagflation-adjacent picture: Thursday's PCE showed April core inflation at 3.3% year-on-year (well above the Fed's 2% target), headline PCE at 3.8%, and a Q1 GDP revision down to 1.6%. 10 OCBC raised its 2026 U.S. inflation forecast to 3.0% from 2.8% following the PCE data. 14
The S&P 500's seventh consecutive record close reflected a narrow set of drivers: Dell surged 32.8% on earnings, NetApp added 22.4%, and ServiceNow rose 14.4%, pulling the tech-heavy indices. 15 Adam Button framed the crowding dynamic: "There's a certain portion of market participants who chase momentum, and maybe more than ever before... These are low-attention-span investors who are going to hop onto the next big thing, and they're piling into AI now the way that they piled into gold and silver a few months ago." 15
Week-ahead calendar
The first week of June carries outsized macro weight heading into Warsh's June 17 FOMC debut. 46
| Date | Release | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Mon June 1 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Validates or contradicts Chicago PMI's 62.7 surge |
| Tue June 2 | JOLTs job openings (Apr) | Fed's preferred labor-market-tightness gauge |
| Wed June 3 | ADP Employment + ISM Services PMI | Services sector health; inflation persistence signal |
| Thu June 4 | Weekly jobless claims | Labor market resilience check |
| Fri June 5 | May Non-Farm Payrolls | Full employment / wage picture |
| June 17 | Warsh's first FOMC meeting | Rate decision + statement tone |
Lukman Otunuga of FXTM noted: "The May jobs report should provide key insights into the health of the labor market. A weak report could add fuel to gold's upside, especially if this further shaves bets around higher US rates in 2026." 46
The overriding variable is one no calendar can schedule: Trump's weekend decision on the Iran 60-day ceasefire MOU. A rejection sends crude back above $90, pressures equities, and potentially provides gold with a fresh safe-haven bid. A signed MOU narrows the geopolitical risk premium in energy and precious metals but does not physically reopen Hormuz — the shipping and inventory trajectory identified in the IEA/IMF/World Bank/WTO joint warning remains intact regardless of diplomatic language. 27
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Corn and soybean settlements sourced from MarketWatch continuous contracts (C00, S00); CME official ZCN6 and ZSN6 May 29 trade-date pages had not yet refreshed at collection time. COMEX Gold CME settlement page similarly pending refresh; $4,560.50 sourced from MarketWatch GCM26. All settlement data subject to CME confirmation.
References
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- 5S00 Soybeans Continuous — MarketWatch
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- 38Why did grains falter Friday — FarmProgress
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- 39Export Report: Corn sales slide but stay solid — FarmProgress
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- 40Old crop wheat export sales dive, new crop solid — Brownfield Ag News
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- 41El Niño Boost — FarmProgress
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- 42May 2026 WASDE Outlook — OSU AEDE
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- 44Argentina cuts wheat/barley export taxes — Milling MEA
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- 46
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