2026-09-09 09:00｜有色金属事件流（17条）
覆盖北京时间2026-09-08 15:00—2026-09-09 09:00，汇总17条可核验的SHFE仓单、铜铝铅锌锡现货与加工费、美国官方宏观事件。
[
{
"event_id": "shfe-cn-20260908-cu-dailystock",
"event_type": "inventory",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "上期所9月8日铜仓单21412吨，较上日减1903吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T01:06:35Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 93,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"metric": "SHFE铜期货仓单",
"registered_warrants_tonnes": 21412,
"change_vs_2026-09-07_tonnes": -1903,
"unit": "吨",
"regional_totals_tonnes": {"上海": 13465, "广东": 876, "江苏": 7046, "浙江": 25, "江西": 0},
"tax_status_totals_tonnes": {"完税商品": 21412, "保税商品": 0},
"report": "2026年第166期/总第4359期",
"publication_time_precision": "官方日报未披露原生发布时间；published_at_utc取本轮首次确认该日报已上线的时刻，不代表精确发布时间",
"cross_check": "官方中文与英文全品种日报数值一致；2026-09-08无同日库存周报"
},
"transmission_chain": "铜注册仓单较上日减少1903吨→交易所可交割库存下降→近月铜现货供应的边际紧张度上升，沪铜基差和近月价格获得支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "上期所修正2026-09-08铜仓单或后续库存回流抵消本次减少",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/EN/all.html"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-cn-20260908-al-dailystock",
"event_type": "inventory",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "上期所9月8日铝仓单217177吨，较上日减2697吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T01:06:35Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 93,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"metric": "SHFE铝期货仓单",
"registered_warrants_tonnes": 217177,
"change_vs_2026-09-07_tonnes": -2697,
"unit": "吨",
"regional_totals_tonnes": {"上海": 5083, "广东": 6764, "江苏": 89351, "浙江": 14409, "山东": 17487, "天津": 525, "河南": 70572, "重庆": 4982, "四川": 8004},
"tax_status_totals_tonnes": {"完税商品": 217177, "保税商品": 0},
"report": "2026年第166期/总第4359期",
"publication_time_precision": "官方日报未披露原生发布时间；published_at_utc取本轮首次确认该日报已上线的时刻，不代表精确发布时间",
"cross_check": "官方中文与英文全品种日报数值一致；2026-09-08无同日库存周报"
},
"transmission_chain": "铝注册仓单较上日减少2697吨→交易所可交割库存下降→铝近月供应缓冲收窄，现货基差和近月价格获得边际支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "上期所修正2026-09-08铝仓单或后续库存重新累积",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/EN/all.html"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-cn-20260908-zn-dailystock",
"event_type": "inventory",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "上期所9月8日锌仓单91597吨，较上日减25吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T01:06:35Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 93,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"metric": "SHFE锌期货仓单",
"registered_warrants_tonnes": 91597,
"change_vs_2026-09-07_tonnes": -25,
"unit": "吨",
"regional_totals_tonnes": {"上海": 8662, "广东": 17443, "江苏": 5809, "浙江": 9733, "天津": 49950},
"report": "2026年第166期/总第4359期",
"publication_time_precision": "官方日报未披露原生发布时间；published_at_utc取本轮首次确认该日报已上线的时刻，不代表精确发布时间",
"cross_check": "官方中文与英文全品种日报数值一致；2026-09-08无同日库存周报"
},
"transmission_chain": "锌注册仓单较上日减少25吨→可交割库存仅小幅下降→库存对沪锌近月价格的边际影响接近中性",
"invalidation_conditions": "上期所修正2026-09-08锌仓单或后续库存出现足以改变边际判断的回升",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/EN/all.html"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-cn-20260908-pb-dailystock",
"event_type": "inventory",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "上期所9月8日铅仓单57742吨，较上日持平",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T01:06:35Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 93,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"metric": "SHFE铅期货仓单",
"registered_warrants_tonnes": 57742,
"change_vs_2026-09-07_tonnes": 0,
"unit": "吨",
"regional_totals_tonnes": {"上海": 3221, "广东": 1998, "江苏": 7684, "浙江": 24148, "天津": 20691},
"report": "2026年第166期/总第4359期",
"publication_time_precision": "官方日报未披露原生发布时间；published_at_utc取本轮首次确认该日报已上线的时刻，不代表精确发布时间",
"cross_check": "官方中文与英文全品种日报数值一致；2026-09-08无同日库存周报"
},
"transmission_chain": "铅注册仓单较上日持平→交易所可交割库存没有新增变化→仓单指标对沪铅近月价格暂不提供方向信号",
"invalidation_conditions": "上期所修正2026-09-08铅仓单或后续库存变动改变持平状态",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/EN/all.html"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-cn-20260908-ni-dailystock",
"event_type": "inventory",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "上期所9月8日镍仓单99179吨，较上日减268吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T01:06:35Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 93,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"metric": "SHFE镍期货仓单",
"registered_warrants_tonnes": 99179,
"change_vs_2026-09-07_tonnes": -268,
"unit": "吨",
"regional_totals_tonnes": {"上海": 74842, "广东": 1357, "江苏": 16625, "浙江": 6355},
"report": "2026年第166期/总第4359期",
"publication_time_precision": "官方日报未披露原生发布时间；published_at_utc取本轮首次确认该日报已上线的时刻，不代表精确发布时间",
"cross_check": "官方中文与英文全品种日报数值一致；2026-09-08无同日库存周报"
},
"transmission_chain": "镍注册仓单较上日减少268吨→交易所可交割库存下降→镍近月供应缓冲略收窄，仓单信号边际利多价格",
"invalidation_conditions": "上期所修正2026-09-08镍仓单或后续库存回升",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/EN/all.html"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-cn-20260908-sn-dailystock",
"event_type": "inventory",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "上期所9月8日锡仓单5328吨，较上日增208吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T01:06:35Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 93,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"metric": "SHFE锡期货仓单",
"registered_warrants_tonnes": 5328,
"change_vs_2026-09-07_tonnes": 208,
"unit": "吨",
"report": "2026年第166期/总第4359期",
"publication_time_precision": "官方日报未披露原生发布时间；published_at_utc取本轮首次确认该日报已上线的时刻，不代表精确发布时间",
"cross_check": "官方中文与英文全品种日报数值一致；2026-09-08无同日库存周报"
},
"transmission_chain": "锡注册仓单较上日增加208吨→交易所可交割库存增加→短期锡现货供应缓冲扩大，仓单信号对锡价偏空",
"invalidation_conditions": "上期所修正2026-09-08锡仓单或后续库存回落抵消本次增加",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/EN/all.html"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-cn-20260908-ao-dailystock",
"event_type": "inventory",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "上期所9月8日氧化铝仓单合计268502吨，增9923吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T01:06:35Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 93,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"metric": "SHFE氧化铝期货仓单",
"warehouse_warrants_tonnes": 259202,
"warehouse_change_vs_2026-09-07_tonnes": 9923,
"factory_warrants_tonnes": 9300,
"factory_change_vs_2026-09-07_tonnes": 0,
"combined_warrants_tonnes": 268502,
"unit": "吨",
"report": "2026年第166期/总第4359期",
"publication_time_precision": "官方日报未披露原生发布时间；published_at_utc取本轮首次确认该日报已上线的时刻，不代表精确发布时间",
"cross_check": "官方中文与英文全品种日报数值一致；2026-09-08无同日库存周报"
},
"transmission_chain": "氧化铝仓库仓单增加9923吨而厂库仓单持平→交易所显性可交割库存增加→氧化铝近月供应缓冲扩大，仓单信号压低近月价格弹性",
"invalidation_conditions": "上期所修正2026-09-08氧化铝仓单或后续仓单回落抵消本次增加",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/EN/all.html"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-cn-20260908-ad-dailystock",
"event_type": "inventory",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "上期所9月8日铸造铝合金仓单23133吨，增244吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-09T01:06:35Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 93,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"metric": "SHFE铸造铝合金ADC12期货仓单",
"registered_warrants_tonnes": 23133,
"change_vs_2026-09-07_tonnes": 244,
"unit": "吨",
"report": "2026年第166期/总第4359期",
"publication_time_precision": "官方日报未披露原生发布时间；published_at_utc取本轮首次确认该日报已上线的时刻，不代表精确发布时间",
"cross_check": "官方中文与英文全品种日报数值一致；2026-09-08无同日库存周报"
},
"transmission_chain": "铸造铝合金注册仓单增加244吨→交易所可交割库存小幅增加→ADC12近月供应缓冲略扩大，仓单信号偏空",
"invalidation_conditions": "上期所修正2026-09-08铸造铝合金仓单或后续库存回落",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260908/EN/all.html"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260908-cu-spot-basis",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "上海铜早盘少量差平货源升水150元/吨",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-08T09:31:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T09:31:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 55,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"market": "上海",
"metric": "电解铜现货升贴水",
"morning_offer_basis_yuan_per_tonne": 150,
"unit": "元/吨",
"market_state": "主流平水铜与好铜品牌流通紧张，报价偏少；下游接货意愿弱",
"comparison_basis": "文章判断现货升水较前一日继续走跌，但收盘绝对值未公开核验",
"closing_absolute_basis": null,
"unavailable_reason": "正文在登录截断处止于上海市场早盘段，收盘表格为图片，未采用不可逐字核验的数值"
},
"transmission_chain": "沪铜上涨且近月Back月差高位→下游畏高、接货偏弱→上海电解铜现货升水承压，影响贸易商点价和近月基差采购",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续同口径上海电解铜现货升贴水企稳回升，或Mysteel修正早盘升水150元/吨数据",
"source_urls": ["https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26090817/37E42C1B3CD21A0F.html"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260908-al-regional-basis",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "佛山A00铝均价24610元，较上日涨40元",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-08T07:17:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T07:17:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 70,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"market": "佛山",
"metric": "A00铝锭现货价格与对沪铝盘面基差",
"spot_price_range_yuan_per_tonne": "24590-24630",
"spot_average_yuan_per_tonne": 24610,
"spot_change_vs_previous_trading_day_yuan_per_tonne": 40,
"basis_to_aluminum_futures_yuan_per_tonne": 180,
"unit": "元/吨",
"offer_basis_wording": "主流贴水10元/吨，部分下调至贴水20元/吨",
"comparison_basis": "现货均价较上一交易日；基差为当日盘面截面"
},
"transmission_chain": "佛山A00铝均价较上日上涨40元且基差在升水180元/吨附近获得支撑→华南现货相对盘面保持强势→持货商出货与下游逢低接货共同支撑区域铝价",
"invalidation_conditions": "同口径佛山基差跌破升水150元/吨或现货重新扩大至贴水30元/吨以上",
"source_urls": ["https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26090815/44D51A12D0C91D09.html"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260908-pb-spot-basis",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "1号铅均价15925元，较上日跌125元",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-08T09:30:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T09:30:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 70,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"market": "中国",
"metric": "Mysteel 1#铅锭价格与河南电解铅对沪铅2610升贴水",
"spot_price_range_yuan_per_tonne": "15875-15975",
"spot_average_yuan_per_tonne": 15925,
"spot_change_vs_2026-09-07_yuan_per_tonne": -125,
"henan_basis_to_shanghai_lead_2610": "贴水100-50",
"unit": "元/吨",
"comparison_basis": "1#铅锭均价较2026-09-07；河南升贴水为当日截面"
},
"transmission_chain": "1#铅锭均价较上日下跌125元且河南货源对沪铅2610报贴水→下游逢低补库承接现货→铅价短线获得成交支撑，但区域现货基差仍偏弱",
"invalidation_conditions": "Mysteel修正1#铅锭均价或河南对沪铅2610的贴水报价，或后续同口径报价转为升水",
"source_urls": ["https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26090817/C87C5BEBDE6DEE0C.html"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260908-pb-conc-tc",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "进口铅精矿TC报负175至负160美元/干吨",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-08T09:20:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T09:20:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 70,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"market": "中国铅精矿",
"metric": "铅精矿加工费TC与精矿价格",
"domestic_tc_change_vs_previous_day": "持平，低位",
"import_tc_range_usd_per_dry_tonne": "-175~-160",
"concentrate_price_change_vs_previous_trading_day_yuan_per_metal_tonne": -125,
"import_concentrate_price_change_vs_previous_day_yuan_per_metal_tonne": -110,
"unit": "美元/干吨；元/金属吨",
"market_state": "供应偏紧，高银矿溢价突出，进口矿成交有限",
"comparison_basis": "TC较上一日；精矿价格较上一交易日"
},
"transmission_chain": "铅精矿供应偏紧→进口TC维持负175至负160美元/干吨、国产TC处于低位→炼厂原料采购成本和减产约束延续→铅价成本底获得支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "进口TC回升至负150美元/干吨以上或国产TC明显上修，显示原料紧张缓解",
"source_urls": ["https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26090817/92045C97DED8053B.html"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260908-zn-conc-tc",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "锌精矿进口TC负130至负110美元，国产TC深度负值",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-08T09:50:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T09:50:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 65,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"market": "中国锌精矿",
"metric": "锌精矿加工费TC与精矿价格",
"import_tc_range_usd_per_dry_tonne": "-130~-110",
"import_tc_change_vs_previous_working_day": "持平",
"domestic_tc_range_yuan_per_metal_tonne": "-1700~-2600",
"domestic_concentrate_price_change_vs_previous_working_day_yuan_per_metal_tonne": 370,
"import_concentrate_price_change_vs_previous_working_day_yuan_per_metal_tonne": -25,
"unit": "美元/干吨；元/金属吨",
"source_wording_conflict": "标题使用加工费下跌，正文可核验数字为进口TC持平、国产TC处于深度负值；本事件采用正文数字",
"comparison_basis": "TC与精矿价格较上一工作日"
},
"transmission_chain": "锌矿增量有限且进口补充不足→进口TC维持负130至负110美元/干吨、国产TC为负1700至负2600元/金属吨→炼厂抢矿和减产压力延续→锌锭供应收紧预期支撑沪锌",
"invalidation_conditions": "国产TC回升至负1000元/金属吨以上或进口TC回升至负100美元/干吨以上，显示矿端紧张缓解",
"source_urls": [
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26090817/592C8C2204D1E841.html",
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26090817/D6F594FF1E364B0C.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260908-sn-spot-price-basis",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "Mysteel锡锭均价418500元，较上日涨1500元",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-08T09:05:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T09:05:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 75,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"data_date_beijing": "2026-09-08",
"market": "中国锡现货",
"metric": "Mysteel 1#锡锭价格与云锡对沪锡2610升贴水",
"specification": "Sn≥99.90%",
"spot_price_range_yuan_per_tonne": "417000-420000",
"spot_average_yuan_per_tonne": 418500,
"spot_change_vs_previous_trading_day_yuan_per_tonne": 1500,
"spot_1530_average_change_vs_previous_working_day_yuan_per_tonne": 500,
"yunxi_basis_to_shanghai_tin_2610": "升水100元/吨起，完整区间未公开核验",
"unit": "元/吨",
"comparison_basis": "日均价较上一交易日；15:30截面均价较前一工作日15:30"
},
"transmission_chain": "印尼与缅甸出口恢复不完全且冶炼厂惜售→1#锡锭均价上涨1500元至418500元/吨、云锡对2610维持升水→下游因价格偏高减少补库，锡价短线高位波动",
"invalidation_conditions": "Mysteel修正锡锭均价或后续同口径报价回落至417000元/吨以下，或云锡升水转为贴水",
"source_urls": [
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26090817/6642BE331DE2E399.html",
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26090816/27935AE780238C8B.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "federalreserve-us-20260908-consumercredit",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "美联储7月消费者信贷环比年化增4.2%",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T23:59:59Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"release_date_source": "2026-09-08",
"release_time_precision": "官方G.19页面只给发布日期，未给具体时刻；published_at_utc取该发布日期的UTC日末锚点，不代表精确发布时间",
"report": "Consumer Credit-G.19，报告期2026年7月",
"total_consumer_credit_saar_pct": 4.2,
"revolving_credit_saar_pct": 2.5,
"nonrevolving_credit_saar_pct": 4.8,
"total_flow_annual_rate_billion_usd": 216.7,
"total_outstanding_billion_usd": 5186.2,
"unit": "百分比；十亿美元"
},
"transmission_chain": "美国7月消费者信贷季调年化增长4.2%，非循环信贷增长4.8%→居民耐用品与汽车等融资需求仍有支撑→铜终端消费预期获得轻微支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "美联储修订2026年7月G.19读数，或后续月份信贷明显收缩并抵消本次扩张信号",
"source_urls": ["https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/"],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "nyfed-us-20260908-sce",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "纽约联储调查显示失业上升预期升至44.4%",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T23:59:59Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"release_date_source": "2026-09-08",
"release_time_precision": "纽约联储新闻稿只给发布日期，未给具体时刻；published_at_utc取该发布日期的UTC日末锚点，不代表精确发布时间",
"survey": "2026年8月Survey of Consumer Expectations，调查期2026-08-03至2026-08-31",
"mean_probability_unemployment_rate_increase_pct": 44.4,
"change_vs_2026-07_percentage_points": 1.6,
"highest_since": "2020年4月",
"three_year_inflation_expectation_pct": 3.2,
"three_year_change_vs_2026-07_percentage_points": -0.1,
"job_finding_probability_if_job_lost_pct": 45.4,
"job_finding_probability_change_vs_previous_month_percentage_points": -0.8,
"unit": "百分比；百分点"
},
"transmission_chain": "未来一年美国失业率上升预期升至44.4%，为2020年4月以来最高→居民对就业和收入的预期转弱→地产、汽车和耐用品等铜密集终端的需求预期承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "纽约联储修订2026年8月调查，或后续调查显示失业上升预期明显回落",
"source_urls": ["https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260908"],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "census-us-20260908-qfr",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "美国制造业Q2税后利润3594亿美元，环比增641亿美元",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-08T14:00:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-08T14:00:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 95,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-08 15:00-2026-09-09 09:00",
"release_time_beijing": "2026-09-08 22:00",
"release_time_source": "10:00 AM EDT, Tuesday, September 8, 2026",
"report": "U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Financial Report 2026Q2，CB26-144",
"manufacturing_seasonally_adjusted_after_tax_profits_billion_usd": 359.4,
"q1_2026_revised_after_tax_profits_billion_usd": 295.2,
"qoq_change_billion_usd": 64.1,
"q2_2025_revised_after_tax_profits_billion_usd": 215.6,
"yoy_change_billion_usd": 143.8,
"durable_goods_after_tax_profits_billion_usd": 251.0,
"durable_goods_qoq_change_billion_usd": 43.9,
"nondurable_goods_after_tax_profits_billion_usd": 108.4,
"nondurable_goods_qoq_change_billion_usd": 20.2,
"unit": "十亿美元；标题换算为亿美元"
},
"transmission_chain": "美国制造业季调税后利润由2026年一季度修订值295.2十亿美元升至二季度359.4十亿美元→企业现金流和资本开支能力改善→若利润转化为设备、电网和工业投资，铜需求的中期预期获得支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "美国人口普查局修订QFR利润数据，或后续投资数据表明利润增长没有转化为铜密集型资本开支",
"source_urls": ["https://www2.census.gov/econ/qfr/press/qfr262mg.pdf"],
"source_tier": "A"
}
]This story was produced automatically by a channel. One sentence is all it takes for Neodrop to keep producing for you.