2026-09-07 09:00｜有色金属事件流（8条）
覆盖北京时间9月4日15:00至9月7日09:00，汇总SHFE周五库存、LME六金属报价、美国8月就业以及铜锌铅精矿现货与加工费的8条可核验事件。
[
{
"event_id": "shfe-nonferrous-20260904-inventory",
"event_type": "inventory",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "SHFE六种基本金属仓单9月4日均下降",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T07:37:10Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 99,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date": "2026-09-04",
"unit": "吨",
"daily_report": "Vol.2026-164，总第4357期",
"weekly_report": "2026年第34期，总第1401期",
"formation_evidence": "官方分品种数据文件 Last-Modified 为2026-09-04 07:37:10 GMT，折合北京时间2026-09-04 15:37:10；日期清单文件为北京时间15:37:19。",
"daily_change_vs_2026_09_03": {
"铜": {"warrant_tonnes": 25781, "change_tonnes": -1777},
"铝": {"warrant_tonnes": 223717, "change_tonnes": -4427},
"锌": {"warrant_tonnes": 95367, "change_tonnes": -625},
"铅": {"warrant_tonnes": 57742, "change_tonnes": -51},
"镍": {"warrant_tonnes": 99303, "change_tonnes": -294},
"锡": {"warrant_tonnes": 4657, "change_tonnes": -8},
"氧化铝": {
"warehouse_warrant_tonnes": 250779,
"warehouse_change_tonnes": 1197,
"factory_warrant_tonnes": 9300,
"factory_change_tonnes": 0
},
"铸造铝合金": {"warrant_tonnes": 22829, "change_tonnes": 906}
},
"weekly_change_vs_2026_08_28": {
"铜": {"week_end_warrant_tonnes": 25781, "change_tonnes": -5681},
"铝": {"week_end_warrant_tonnes": 223717, "change_tonnes": -21793},
"锌": {"week_end_warrant_tonnes": 95367, "change_tonnes": -16802},
"铅": {"week_end_warrant_tonnes": 57742, "change_tonnes": 802},
"镍": {"week_end_warrant_tonnes": 99303, "change_tonnes": -2168},
"锡": {"week_end_warrant_tonnes": 4657, "change_tonnes": -822},
"氧化铝": {
"warehouse_week_end_warrant_tonnes": 250779,
"warehouse_change_tonnes": 8101,
"factory_week_end_warrant_tonnes": 9300,
"factory_change_tonnes": 0
},
"铸造铝合金": {"week_end_warrant_tonnes": 22829, "change_tonnes": 1211}
},
"cross_report_check": "周报本周末期货口径与日报总量逐品种一致；日报与周报合并为同一周五收盘库存快照。"
},
"transmission_chain": "铜、铝、锌、铅、镍、锡六种基本金属仓单日度均下降，而氧化铝仓库和铸造铝合金仓单上升→主要基本金属可交割库存边际收紧且品种出现分化→NONFERROUS短线库存信号偏多。",
"invalidation_conditions": "SHFE后续修正2026-09-04日报或周报数字，或后续连续交易日主要基本金属仓单普遍回升时失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260904/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260904/EN/shfe/all.html?params=1",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/weeklystock_20260904/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/weeklystock_20260904/EN/shfe/all.html?params=1",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_data_list.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-base-20260904-official-price",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "LME六种金属9月4日现金与3月报价已更新",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T12:25:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 98,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date": "2026-09-04",
"unit": "美元/公吨",
"official_publication_window": "伦敦时间12:20—13:25，2026-09-04为英国夏令时；published_at_utc取窗口截止时刻。",
"cash_bid_ask": {
"铜": [14370.5, 14371.0],
"铝": [3292.0, 3292.5],
"锌": [4085.0, 4087.0],
"镍": [16680.0, 16690.0],
"铅": [1870.5, 1871.0],
"锡": [54500.0, 54525.0]
},
"three_month_bid_ask": {
"铜": [14360.0, 14365.0],
"铝": [3292.0, 3293.0],
"锌": [3928.0, 3930.0],
"镍": [16840.0, 16845.0],
"铅": [1913.0, 1914.0],
"锡": [54800.0, 54850.0]
},
"cash_bid_minus_three_month_bid": {
"铜": 10.5,
"铝": 0.0,
"锌": 157.0,
"镍": -160.0,
"铅": -42.5,
"锡": -300.0
},
"price_display_basis": "LME官方页面显示为2026-09-04有效日的延迟单日快照。"
},
"transmission_chain": "铜和锌现金Bid分别较3个月Bid升水10.5和157美元/吨，镍、铅、锡现金Bid分别贴水160、42.5和300美元/吨，铝接近平水→六种金属近月现货紧张度分化→NONFERROUS期限结构信号整体中性。",
"invalidation_conditions": "LME修正2026-09-04官方报价，或下一有效交易日现金与3个月结构出现与本条相反的普遍变化时失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices",
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/publication-schedule",
"https://www.lme.com/metals/non-ferrous/lme-copper"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "bls-us-20260904-employment-situation",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "美国8月非农增16.2万人，金属制造就业增6千",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-04T12:30:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T12:30:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 99,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"release": "USDL-26-1435 Employment Situation—August 2026",
"release_time": "2026-09-04 08:30 EDT",
"reference_period": "2026-08",
"unit": "就业人数为人，失业率和同比变动为百分比，时薪为美元/小时",
"total_nonfarm_change": 162000,
"unemployment_rate_percent": 4.1,
"unemployment_rate_change": 0.0,
"prior_revision": {
"2026_06_original_change": 20000,
"2026_06_revised_change": 31000,
"2026_07_original_change": -23000,
"2026_07_revised_change": 21000,
"combined_revision_change": 55000
},
"manufacturing_change": 16000,
"machinery_manufacturing_change": 6000,
"metal_products_manufacturing_change": 6000,
"construction_change": 22000,
"private_nonfarm_average_hourly_earnings_usd": 37.75,
"hourly_earnings_monthly_change_percent": 0.3,
"hourly_earnings_yearly_change_percent": 3.1
},
"transmission_chain": "美国8月制造业就业增加16000人，其中机械制造和金属制品制造各增加6000人，建筑业增加22000人→金属加工和建筑活动的就业代理改善→铜、铝等工业金属需求预期边际获得支撑。",
"invalidation_conditions": "BLS后续修正8月就业数据，或后续美国制造业订单、工业活动和相关就业数据转弱时失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09042026.htm"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-copper-20260904-yangshan-premium",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "洋山铜仓单周均溢价74美元/吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T07:46:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"data_period": ["2026-08-31", "2026-09-04"],
"market": "上海洋山铜进口溢价",
"unit": "美元/吨",
"warehouse_receipt_qp09_weekly_range": [68, 79],
"warehouse_receipt_qp09_weekly_average": 74,
"bill_of_lading_qp10_weekly_range": [66, 80],
"bill_of_lading_qp10_weekly_average": 73,
"eq_cif_bill_of_lading_qp10_weekly_range": [34, 50],
"eq_cif_bill_of_lading_qp10_weekly_average": 42,
"friday_offer_range": {
"registered_pyrometallurgical_warehouse_receipt": [90, 100],
"eq_cif": [50, 60]
},
"comparison_basis": "周均成交与9月4日报盘；公开正文未给出上一周同口径周均前值。"
},
"transmission_chain": "洋山铜仓单、提单和EQ-CIF周均溢价分别为74、73和42美元/吨，9月4日火法注册铜仓单报盘为90—100美元/吨→进口铜到岸成本与保税现货成交获得量化参考→本期缺少上一周同口径前值，NONFERROUS方向信号中性。",
"invalidation_conditions": "SMM修正本周洋山铜溢价区间或均值，或后续公开稿件修正QP月份和货物类型时失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://hq.smm.cn/copper/content/104099066",
"https://news.smm.cn/keywords/%E5%BA%93%E5%AD%98?page=2"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-copper-20260904-import-parity-curve",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "沪伦比1.1334，铜进口亏损收窄1526元/吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T07:46:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 91,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date": "2026-09-04",
"market": "LME铜与沪铜2609跨市场结构",
"sh_london_ratio_excluding_exchange_rate": 1.1334,
"copper_spot_import_loss": 374.51,
"import_loss_unit": "元/吨",
"import_loss_narrowing_vs_prior_week": 1526,
"lme_september_date_to_october_date_swap_fee_difference": -14.81,
"swap_fee_unit": "美元/吨",
"curve_description": "LME 9月date为BACK结构，9月date与10月date调期费差较上周明显收窄。",
"comparison_basis": "进口亏损比较上一周；调期费差比较上一周。"
},
"transmission_chain": "铜现货进口亏损较上周收窄1526元/吨，LME 9月date与10月date的BACK调期费差收窄至-14.81美元/吨→进口套利条件和近月紧张程度边际改善→铜现货支撑信号小幅减弱。",
"invalidation_conditions": "SMM修正沪伦比、进口亏损或调期费差，或后续同口径数据重新显示进口亏损扩大和BACK加深时失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://hq.smm.cn/copper/content/104099066",
"https://news.smm.cn/keywords/%E5%BA%93%E5%AD%98?page=2"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-copper-20260904-concentrate-tc",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "SMM铜精矿周指数降至-200.31美元/干吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T08:45:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date": "2026-09-04",
"indicator": "SMM进口铜精矿指数（周）",
"unit": "美元/干吨",
"current_index": -200.31,
"previous_index": -199.84,
"change_vs_previous_update": -0.47,
"domestic_20_percent_grade_pricing_coefficient_range": [98.5, 99.5],
"pricing_coefficient_unit": "%",
"comparison_basis": "上一期周度指数。"
},
"transmission_chain": "SMM进口铜精矿指数由-199.84降至-200.31美元/干吨，计价系数为98.5%—99.5%→冶炼厂采购利润空间继续受压、精矿供给方议价能力偏强→若压低冶炼产量，精炼铜供应预期获得支撑。",
"invalidation_conditions": "SMM修正指数或计价系数，或后续同口径指数回升并伴随冶炼产量维持时失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://hq.smm.cn/copper/content/104099028",
"https://news.smm.cn/hotwords/%E5%BA%93%E5%AD%98"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-zinc-20260904-concentrate-tc",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "国产锌精矿加工费报-1500至-1800元/吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T08:42:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 84,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"data_period": ["2026-08-31", "2026-09-04"],
"indicator": "国产50%品位锌精矿加工费",
"unit": "元/金属吨",
"current_range": [-1800, -1500],
"comparison_basis": "正文称加工费较上周继续下行；上一周精确区间暂未公开。",
"market_description": "进口锌精矿加工费维持深度负值，成交清淡。"
},
"transmission_chain": "国产50%品位锌精矿加工费继续下行至-1500至-1800元/金属吨→锌精矿供给偏紧并压缩冶炼端利润→若冶炼端减产，精炼锌供应预期获得支撑。",
"invalidation_conditions": "Mysteel修正加工费区间，或后续同口径加工费回升且锌冶炼产量未受压制时失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26090416/A3D8A9B38CA74F29.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-lead-20260904-concentrate-tc",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"title": "进口铅精矿加工费报-160至-175美元/吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T07:42:00Z",
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 84,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"data_period": ["2026-08-31", "2026-09-04"],
"indicator": "进口铅精矿加工费",
"unit": "美元/干吨",
"import_tc_range": [-175, -160],
"domestic_50_percent_grade_by_region": {
"华北": 200,
"西北": 200,
"西南": 100,
"华南": 100,
"华中": 200
},
"domestic_ordinary_tc_range": [-200, 0],
"domestic_tc_unit": "元/金属吨",
"comparison_basis": "正文称进口加工费本周持续低位；上一周精确区间暂未公开。"
},
"transmission_chain": "进口铅精矿加工费处于-160至-175美元/干吨，国产普通铅精矿加工费为-200至0元/金属吨→铅精矿供给偏紧并压缩冶炼端利润→若冶炼端减产，精炼铅供应预期获得支撑。",
"invalidation_conditions": "Mysteel修正进口或国产加工费，或后续同口径加工费回升且铅冶炼产量未受压制时失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26090415/8F90CC1D24074CDA.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
}
]This story was produced automatically by a channel. One sentence is all it takes for Neodrop to keep producing for you.