2026-09-08 09:00｜有色金属事件流（4条）
覆盖北京时间9月7日15:00至9月8日09:00，交付SHFE仓单、LME六金属库存与报价、Dugald River锌精矿销售协议4条可核验事件。
[
{
"event_id": "shfe-nonferrous-20260907-inventory",
"event_type": "inventory",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "SHFE铜铝锌仓单分别减少2466、3843和3745吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-07T07:11:24Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 1
},
"confidence": 99,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-07 15:00-2026-09-08 09:00",
"data_date": "2026-09-07",
"unit": "吨",
"daily_report": "2026年第165期，总第4358期",
"formation_evidence": "官方分品种数据文件Last-Modified为北京时间2026-09-07 15:11:14—15:11:15，日期清单为15:11:24；该时间只作为进入窗口和published_at_utc的证据。",
"daily_change_vs_2026_09_04": {
"铜": {
"warrant_tonnes": 23315,
"previous_warrant_tonnes": 25781,
"change_tonnes": -2466
},
"铝": {
"warrant_tonnes": 219874,
"previous_warrant_tonnes": 223717,
"change_tonnes": -3843
},
"锌": {
"warrant_tonnes": 91622,
"previous_warrant_tonnes": 95367,
"change_tonnes": -3745
},
"铅": {
"warrant_tonnes": 57742,
"previous_warrant_tonnes": 57742,
"change_tonnes": 0
},
"镍": {
"warrant_tonnes": 99447,
"previous_warrant_tonnes": 99303,
"change_tonnes": 144
},
"锡": {
"warrant_tonnes": 5120,
"previous_warrant_tonnes": 4657,
"change_tonnes": 463
},
"氧化铝": {
"warehouse_warrant_tonnes": 249279,
"warehouse_previous_tonnes": 250779,
"warehouse_change_tonnes": -1500,
"factory_warrant_tonnes": 9300,
"factory_previous_tonnes": 9300,
"factory_change_tonnes": 0
},
"铸造铝合金": {
"warrant_tonnes": 22889,
"previous_warrant_tonnes": 22829,
"change_tonnes": 60
}
},
"comparison_note": "日报原生增减列以9月4日上一交易日为比较基准；中文页与英文页逐项一致。"
},
"transmission_chain": "铜、铝、锌和氧化铝仓单合计明显下降，镍、锡和铸造铝合金小幅增加且铅持平→多数大权重品种可交割货源边际收紧→NONFERROUS短线库存信号偏多。",
"invalidation_conditions": "SHFE修正9月7日仓单日报，或后续连续交易日铜、铝、锌等主要品种仓单普遍回升时失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260907/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260907/EN/shfe/all.html?params=1",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_data_list.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-global-20260907-inventory",
"event_type": "inventory",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "LME铜锌库存增2300和925吨，铅库存降3525吨",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-07T08:00:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-07T08:00:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-07 15:00-2026-09-08 09:00",
"official_release_time_london": "2026-09-07 09:00 BST",
"official_release_time_beijing": "2026-09-07 16:00",
"data_as_of": "2026-09-04 close",
"unit": "吨",
"inventory_and_change": {
"铜": {
"inventory_tonnes": 236475,
"change_tonnes": 2300,
"previous_inventory_tonnes": 234175
},
"铝": {
"inventory_tonnes": 244525,
"change_tonnes": 0,
"previous_inventory_tonnes": 244525
},
"锌": {
"inventory_tonnes": 113100,
"change_tonnes": 925,
"previous_inventory_tonnes": 112175
},
"镍": {
"inventory_tonnes": 270744,
"change_tonnes": -24,
"previous_inventory_tonnes": 270768
},
"铅": {
"inventory_tonnes": 388450,
"change_tonnes": -3525,
"previous_inventory_tonnes": 391975
},
"锡": {
"inventory_tonnes": 5415,
"change_tonnes": -55,
"previous_inventory_tonnes": 5470
}
},
"time_basis": "LME官方日程规定Warehouse Stock Movements于伦敦09:00发布T+1数据；event_time_utc与published_at_utc均取该官方固定发布时刻，公开数值详情页于北京时间16:08:02完成可见性复核。",
"evidence_note": "LME匿名官方页未开放日度库存文件；数值由世铝网公开全表与Westmetall逐日表交叉核验，官方日程页确认发布口径和时刻。"
},
"transmission_chain": "铜和锌库存分别增加2300和925吨，铅、锡和镍库存分别下降3525、55和24吨且铝持平→可交割库存变化方向分化→NONFERROUS整体库存信号中性。",
"invalidation_conditions": "LME或公开数据镜像修正9月7日库存水平或变动，或后续同口径六金属库存出现一致方向变化时失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/publication-schedule",
"https://market.cnal.com/lme/2026/09-07/1788768482669186.shtml",
"https://www.westmetall.com/en/markdaten.php?action=table&field=LME_Cu_cash",
"https://www.westmetall.com/en/markdaten.php?action=table&field=LME_Al_cash",
"https://www.westmetall.com/en/markdaten.php?action=table&field=LME_Zn_cash",
"https://www.westmetall.com/en/markdaten.php?action=table&field=LME_Ni_cash",
"https://www.westmetall.com/en/markdaten.php?action=table&field=LME_Pb_cash",
"https://www.westmetall.com/en/markdaten.php?action=table&field=LME_Sn_cash"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-base-20260907-official-price",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "LME铜锌现金报价日涨169和70美元/吨",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-07T12:25:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 1
},
"confidence": 98,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-07 15:00-2026-09-08 09:00",
"data_date": "2026-09-07",
"unit": "美元/公吨",
"official_publication_window": "伦敦时间12:20—13:25，2026-09-07为英国夏令时；published_at_utc取窗口截止时刻。",
"cash_bid_ask": {
"铜": [
14539.0,
14540.0
],
"铝": [
3308.0,
3310.0
],
"锌": [
4156.0,
4157.0
],
"镍": [
16590.0,
16600.0
],
"铅": [
1874.0,
1875.0
],
"锡": [
55050.0,
55100.0
]
},
"cash_ask_change_vs_2026_09_04": {
"铜": 169.0,
"铝": 17.5,
"锌": 70.0,
"镍": -90.0,
"铅": 4.0,
"锡": 575.0
},
"three_month_bid_ask": {
"铜": [
14443.0,
14448.0
],
"铝": [
3307.0,
3308.0
],
"锌": [
3973.0,
3975.0
],
"镍": [
16750.0,
16755.0
],
"铅": [
1913.5,
1914.5
],
"锡": [
55250.0,
55300.0
]
},
"cash_bid_minus_three_month_bid": {
"铜": 96.0,
"铝": 1.0,
"锌": 183.0,
"镍": -160.0,
"铅": -39.5,
"锡": -200.0
},
"price_display_basis": "LME官方页面显示2026-09-07有效日的延迟单日快照；现金Ask日变化以9月4日同口径官方报价为前值。"
},
"transmission_chain": "铜、铝、锌、铅和锡现金卖价较9月4日上涨，镍下跌；铜和锌现金Bid对3个月Bid升水96和183美元/吨→多数基本金属价格与近月结构偏强但镍分化→NONFERROUS日内盘面信号偏多。",
"invalidation_conditions": "LME修正9月7日官方报价，或下一有效交易日多数金属现金报价回落且铜锌近月升水显著收窄时失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices",
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/publication-schedule",
"https://www.lme.com/metals/non-ferrous/lme-copper"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "mmg-zinc-20260907-dugald-sales",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"title": "Dugald River约2万干吨/年锌精矿锁定2027—2028销售",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-09-07T08:46:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-09-07T08:46:00Z",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 94,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-07 15:00-2026-09-08 09:00",
"publisher": "MMG Limited via HKEXnews",
"publisher_time_beijing": "2026-09-07 16:46",
"agreement_date": "2026-09-07",
"mine": "Dugald River",
"commodity": "锌精矿",
"sales_years": [
2027,
2028
],
"annual_quantity_dry_metric_tonnes": 20000,
"pricing_basis": "LME特高级锌结算价与LBMA白银现货价的商定期均价，按金属含量计价并扣除市场一致的TC/RC和罚金。",
"comparison_basis": "新销售协议；公告没有披露相对既有产量或指引的增减。"
},
"transmission_chain": "MMG为Dugald River在2027—2028年每年约2万干吨锌精矿签订销售协议→部分未来精矿销量和定价渠道锁定但矿山产量指引未变→对锌供给方向不构成新增增减信号。",
"invalidation_conditions": "MMG修订、终止销售协议，调整年销量，或后续产量指引显示Dugald River供给发生变化时失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0907/2026090700438.pdf"
],
"source_tier": "A"
}
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