๐ฎ Will Kimi K3 change the economics of AI?๏ฝKimi K3 ไผๆนๅ AI ็็ปๆตๅญฆๅ๏ผ๏ฝ่ฑๆๅๆ + ไธญๆ็ฟป่ฏ
ๅฎๆดๅ็ฐ Exponential View 2026 ๅนด 7 ๆ 23 ๆฅๅ ฌๅผๅฏ่ฏป็่ฑๆๅๆไธไธญๆ็ฟป่ฏ๏ผ่ฟฝ่ธช Kimi K3ใtoken ไปทๆ ผๅผนๆงใๅผๆบๆจกๅๆจ็ๆๆฌๅไธญๅฝ AI ๅฎ้ชๅฎคๆ็๏ผไป่ดนๅขๅ็ๅ ๅฎนไธ่กฅๅใ
English original
๐ฎ Will Kimi K3 change the economics of AI?
The pressure is on
Jul 23, 2026
โ Paid
Kimi K3 has caused quite an uproar since its release last week. Itโs the first time a Chinese model has taken the lead on the frontend Code Arena benchmark. And thatโs three months since Moonshot AIโs previous impressive flagship model, Kimi K2.6, was released. 1
Following in Moonshotโs steps, Alibaba announced over the weekend that Qwen3.8 โ a 2.4 trillion-parameter model โ is coming soon, and unlike its last release, this one will be an open-weight model. No benchmarks or further details have been released as of yet. 1
Open models are now estimated to be 4-7 months behind the frontier in cyber capabilities, down from 6-10 months in 2025. And despite compute constraints, efficiency improvements mean these labs are doing more with less. Comparing the compute availability and model performance between US labs and Chinese labs, we estimated Chinese labs to be getting 4-7x more out of their compute. 1
Hannah Petrovic and I spent some time with the Moonshot AI and Alibaba teams in China back in April and May, and weโve had time to think about the economics of open-source models and how they affect the entire ecosystem. 1
Does Kimi K3 break the economic case for AI?
Some have claimed that Kimi K3โs performance breaks the economic case for AI as it lowers the cost to complete various tasks at frontier standards. For instance, Microsoft engineers are reportedly testing whether Kimi K3 can be used within Copilot. 1
We donโt think this is the case, and in todayโs post weโll work through what might happen next. 1
In The State of the AI Economy report, we found that token usage is elastic across providers. This means that every drop in token price leads to a larger increase in token volume, more than offsetting the difference. 1
For every 10% price cut, token consumption rises 12-18%. A paper by Demirer et al, found a similar effect: a 10% price cut resulted in an 11% or so increase in volumes, which economists call an elasticity of -1.11. 1
The net effect is a rise in total token spend. But note that the effect is a weak one, not the cantering Jevonsโ paradox sometimes presented. Reality might tilt the scales further in favor of more, not less, demand. Workflows are becoming more token-intensive as we rely on reasoning models and verification and approval loops. And the early evidence suggests that firms that adopt AI early tend to increase their relative spend alongside growing headcount. These effects might be short-term elasticities rather than ones that can be sustained for decades, but for now they indicate that falling prices increase volumes and, with that, revenue. 1
Flowing down the stack
The model weights may be free, but the inference is not. Kimi K3 has 2.8 trillion parameters. The weights alone occupy 1.4 TB. It needs to be served on something like a 72-GPU NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 rack or equivalent. Thatโll cost $3-4 million to buy and install. Operating it consumes about 120 kW continuously, over a million kWh per year, before you consider networking, storage, cooling, and humans. If you rented these in the open market, it would cost about $7 million a year. 1
But for infrastructure providers, the economics of hosting open-source models can be very attractive compared to serving closed-source models. A simple way to understand this is to think of the hyperscaler as needing to pay a license fee for a closed-source model but not for an open-source one1. 1
Public access boundaryThe publicly readable page ends here with the notice "This post is for paid subscribers." The remaining article is not accessible on the official page and is not translated or supplemented.
ไธญๆ็ฟป่ฏ
๐ฎ Kimi K3 ไผๆนๅ AI ็็ปๆตๅญฆๅ๏ผ
ๅๅๆญฃๅจๅ ๅคง
2026 ๅนด 7 ๆ 23 ๆฅ
โ ไป่ดนๆ็ซ
ไปๅนดๆฉไบๆถๅๆไปฌ่ฎฟ้ฎ Moonshot AI ๅๅ
ฌๅฎคๆถๆๆ็็
ง็ 1
Kimi K3 ไธๅจๅๅธๅๅผ่ตทไบไธๅฐ็ๅๅใ่ฟๆฏไธญๅฝๆจกๅ้ฆๆฌก็ปไธ Frontend Code Arena ๅบๅๆต่ฏ ็ๆฆ้ฆใMoonshot AI ไธไธๆฌพ่กจ็ฐๅๆ ทไบฎ็ผ็ๆ่ฐๆจกๅ Kimi K2.6๏ผๅๆฏๅจไธไธชๆๅๅๅธ็ใ1
้ฟ้ๅทดๅทดๆฒฟ็ Moonshot ็ๆญฅไผ๏ผๅจๅจๆซๅฎฃๅธ๏ผQwen3.8๏ผไธไธชๆฅๆ 2.4 ไธไบฟๅๆฐ็ๆจกๅ๏ผๅณๅฐๆจๅบใไธไธไธๆฌกๅๅธไธๅ๏ผ่ฟๆฌกไผๆฏไธไธชๅผๆพๆ้ๆจกๅใๆช่ณ็ฎๅ๏ผๅฎๆน่ฟๆฒกๆๅๅธๅบๅๆ็ปฉๆๆดๅค็ป่ใ1
็ฎๅไผฐ่ฎก๏ผๅผๆพๆจกๅๅจ็ฝ็ปๅฎๅ
จ่ฝๅไธ่ฝๅๅๆฒฟๆจกๅ 4 ่ณ 7 ไธชๆ๏ผ2025 ๅนด่ฟไธๅทฎ่ทๆฏ 6 ่ณ 10 ไธชๆใๅฐฝ็ฎก็ฎๅๅ้๏ผๆ็ๆๅ่ฎฉ่ฟไบๅฎ้ชๅฎค็จๆดๅฐ่ตๆบๅๆดๅคไบๆ
ใๆฏ่พ็พๅฝไธไธญๅฝๅฎ้ชๅฎค็ๅฏ็จ็ฎๅๅๆจกๅ่กจ็ฐๅ๏ผๆไปฌไผฐ่ฎกไธญๅฝๅฎ้ชๅฎคไป็ฎๅไธญๅพๅฐ็ไบงๅบๅค 4 ่ณ 7 ๅใ1
ไปๅนด 4 ๆๅ 5 ๆ๏ผๆไธ Hannah Petrovic ๅจไธญๅฝๅ Moonshot AIใ้ฟ้ๅทดๅทด็ๅข้ไบคๆตไบไธๆฎตๆถ้ด๏ผไนๆๆถ้ดๆ่ๅผๆบๆจกๅ็็ปๆตๅญฆ๏ผไปฅๅๅฎไปฌๅฆไฝๅฝฑๅๆดไธช็ๆ็ณป็ปใ1
Kimi K3 ไผๆ็ ด AI ็็ปๆตๅบ็กๅ๏ผ
ๆไบบ่ฎคไธบ๏ผKimi K3 ๆๅๆฒฟๆ ๅๅฎๆๅ็งไปปๅก็ๆๆฌไธ้๏ผๅ ๆญคๅฎ็่กจ็ฐๆ็ ดไบ AI ็็ปๆตๅบ็กใ็ธๅ
ณ่ฎจ่ฎบๅ
ๆฌๆๆฌไธ้ไปฅๅไปฅๅๆฒฟๆฐดๅนณๅฎๆไปปๅก๏ผๆฎๆฅ้๏ผๅพฎ่ฝฏๅทฅ็จๅธๆญฃๅจๆต่ฏ Kimi K3 ๆฏๅฆ่ฝ็จไบ Copilotใ1
ๆไปฌไธ่ฟไน่ฎคไธบใๆฌๆๅฐๆขณ็ๆฅไธๆฅๅฏ่ฝๅ็ไปไนใ1
ๅจใAI ็ปๆต็ฐ็ถใๆฅๅไธญ๏ผๆไปฌๅ็ฐ๏ผไธๅๆๅกๅไน้ด็ token ไฝฟ็จ้ๅ
ทๆๅผนๆงใ่ฟๆๅณ็ token ไปทๆ ผๆฏไธ้ไธ็น๏ผtoken ไฝฟ็จ้ๅฐฑไผๆดๅคงๅน
ๅขๅ ๏ผๅข้่ถณไปฅๆตๆถไปทๆ ผๅทฎๅผใ1
ๆฏๆฌก้ไปท 10%๏ผtoken ๆถ่้ไผไธๅ 12% ่ณ 18%ใDemirer ็ญไบบ็่ฎบๆๅ็ฐไบ็ฑปไผผๆๅบ๏ผไปทๆ ผไธ้ 10% ไผๅธฆๆฅ็บฆ 11% ็ๆฐ้ๅข้ฟ๏ผ็ปๆตๅญฆๅฎถๆ่ฟ็งฐไธบ -1.11 ็ๅผนๆงใ1
ๅๆๆๆฏ token ๆปๆฏๅบไธๅใไฝ่ฆๆณจๆ๏ผ่ฟไธชๆๅบๅนถไธๅผบ๏ผไธๆฏๆๆถ่ขซๆ่ฟฐ็้ฃ็งๅฅ่
พๅผ Jevons ๆ่ฎบใ็ฐๅฎๅฏ่ฝ่ฟไผ่ฟไธๆญฅๅๅๆดๅคใ่ไธๆฏๆดๅฐ็้ๆฑใ้็ๆไปฌไพ่ตๆจ็ๆจกๅใ้ช่ฏไธๅฎกๆนๅพช็ฏ๏ผๅทฅไฝๆตๆญฃๅจๆถ่ๆดๅค tokenใๆฉๆ่ฏๆฎ่กจๆ๏ผ่พๆฉ้็จ AI ็ไผไธๅจๅๅทฅไบบๆฐๅข้ฟ็ๅๆถ๏ผๅพๅพไนไผๅขๅ ็ธๅฏนๆฏๅบใ่ฟไบๆๅบๅฏ่ฝๅชๆฏ็ญๆๅผนๆง๏ผๆ ๆณ็ปดๆๆฐๅๅนด๏ผไฝ็ฎๅๅฎไปฌ่กจๆ๏ผไปทๆ ผไธ้ไผๅขๅ ไฝฟ็จ้๏ผๅนถ้ไนๅขๅ ๆถๅ
ฅใ1
ๆๆฌๆฒฟ็ๆๆฏๆ ๅไธไผ ๅฏผ
ๆจกๅๆ้ๅฏไปฅๅ
่ดน๏ผๆจ็ๅดไธๆฏใKimi K3 ๆ 2.8 ไธไบฟไธชๅๆฐ๏ผไป
ๆ้ๅฐฑๅ ๆฎ 1.4 TB ็็ฉบ้ดใๅฎ้่ฆ้จ็ฝฒๅจ็ฑปไผผไธๅฐ้
ๅค 72 ๅ GPU ็ NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 ๆบๆถไธ๏ผๆไฝฟ็จๅ็ญ่ฎพๅคใ่ดญไนฐๅๅฎ่ฃ
่ฟๆ ท็่ฎพๅค่ฆ่ฑ 300 ไธ่ณ 400 ไธ็พๅ
ใ่ฎพๅคๆ็ปญ่ฟ่กๆถ็ๅ่็บฆไธบ 120 kW๏ผๆฏๅนด่ถ
่ฟ 100 ไธ kWh๏ผ่ฟ่ฟๆฒกๆ็ฎๅ
ฅ็ฝ็ปใๅญๅจใๅทๅดๅไบบๅๆๆฌใๅฆๆๅจๅ
ฌๅผๅธๅบ็ง็จ่ฟๆ ท็่ฎพๅค๏ผๆฏๅนดๆๆฌ็บฆไธบ 700 ไธ็พๅ
ใ1
ไฝๅฏนๅบ็ก่ฎพๆฝๆไพๅๆฅ่ฏด๏ผไธๆไพ้ญๆบๆจกๅๆๅก็ธๆฏ๏ผๆ็ฎกๅผๆบๆจกๅ็็ปๆตๆงๅฏ่ฝๅพๆๅธๅผๅใๅฏไปฅ่ฟๆ ท็่งฃ๏ผ่ถ
ๅคง่งๆจกไบๆๅกๅ้่ฆไธบ้ญๆบๆจกๅๆฏไป่ฎธๅฏ่ดน๏ผๅดไธ็จไธบๅผๆบๆจกๅๆฏไป่ฎธๅฏ่ดน1ใ1
ๅ ฌๅผๅ ๅฎน่พน็ๅฎๆน้กต้ขๅจไธไธไธชๆฎต่ฝๅๆพ็คบใThis post is for paid subscribersใใๅ ถไฝๆ็ซ ๅ ๅฎนๅจๅฝๅ้กต้ขไธไธๅฏ่ฎฟ้ฎ๏ผๆฌๆไธ็ฟป่ฏ๏ผไนไธ่กฅๅใ
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