Iran deal clock hits 3.4% — Trump's non-decision sends the term structure flat
Trump's Situation Room meeting on May 29 ended without a decision, triggering a full-curve collapse across Iran prediction markets — the May 31 peace deal fell to 3.4% (-5.1pp), the ceasefire extension to 12.5% (-12pp). BTC ETF Day 11 outflows hit −$125.3M (down 82.9% from peak), BTC spot recovered to $73,810, and the Fed held at 67.4% zero-cuts with Warsh on Day 8 of silence.
Coverage window: May 29, 14:33 ET → May 30, 14:00 ET (~23.5 hours)
Trump walked into the Situation Room on May 29 to make his "final determination" on Iran, then walked out without one. 1 The May 31 permanent peace deal market answered immediately: from 8.5% down to 3.4% (-5.1pp), its lowest reading yet. 2 With the deadline now less than 14 hours out as of 14:00 UTC May 30, that contract is effectively priced as a near-certain NO. The ceasefire extension chain did the same: every near-term deadline collapsed, with May 31 falling from 24.5% to 12.5%. 3 Combined, five Iran markets drew $18.4M in 24-hour volume and occupied five of the top 20 slots on Polymarket.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETF outflows continued decelerating — Day 11 came in at −$125.3M, down 43.9% from Day 10's −$223.3M and 82.9% below the Day 9 peak of −$733.4M. 4 BTC spot climbed to $73,810 (+1.32%), consistent with the thesis that institutional selling pressure is exhausting. 5 The Fed picture barely moved (zero-cuts 2026 ticked up 0.1pp to 67.4%), Warsh hit Day 8 of silence, and the CFTC dropped two back-to-back crypto rulings on May 29.
This window at a glance
| Market | Current prob | 24h change | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal — May 31 | 3.4% | −5.1pp | $8.66M |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal — Jun 7 | 12.5% | −7.0pp | $916K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal — Dec 31 | 70.5% | −8.0pp | $418K |
| Iran ceasefire extension — May 31 | 12.5% | −12.0pp | $1.28M |
| Iran ceasefire extension — May 29 | 0% (resolved NO) | — | $1.49M |
| Iran ceasefire continues through May 24 | 99.95% (UMA disputed) | +0.1pp | $4.98M |
| Trump announces Hormuz blockade lifted — May 31 | 11.5% | −8.5pp | $2.45M |
| Hormuz traffic normal — May 31 (IMF Portwatch) | 0.35% | −0.3pp | $993K |
| Fed zero cuts in 2026 | 67.4% | +0.1pp | $5.8K |
| BTC spot price | $73,810 | +1.32% | — |
| BTC ETF net flow (May 29, Day 11) | −$125.3M | −43.9% vs Day 10 | — |
Iran: the Situation Room meeting that decided nothing
The core catalyst this window was the absence of a decision rather than the presence of one. Trump told reporters before the meeting that he would make a "final determination" in the Situation Room. 1 A senior administration official, speaking anonymously to AP because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, confirmed the roughly two-hour meeting concluded "without a decision." 1 Iran simultaneously stated that any agreement "has not been finalized." 1
Earlier the same day, VP JD Vance had described the US as "very close" to a deal but "not there yet." 1 From the Iranian side, Ebrahim Azizi (a member of the Majlis National Security Committee) stated that Iran's concessions come "through missiles" — a hardline posture that traders likely read alongside the AP confirmation of no decision. 1 Adding to the mixed signals: the US launched new airstrikes on military sites in southern Iran on May 29, targeting facilities believed to threaten US forces and commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, according to news reports from the same day. 1 Peace talks and simultaneous strikes are the kind of contradiction that removes any premium for a near-term deal.
The full peace deal term structure, as of 14:00 UTC May 30: 2
| Deadline | Current prob | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.4% | −5.1pp |
| Jun 7 | 12.5% | −7.0pp |
| Jun 15 | 18.5% | −9.0pp |
| Jun 30 | 29.5% | −10.0pp |
| Jul 31 | 43.5% | −12.0pp |
| Dec 31 | 70.5% | −8.0pp |
Every single deadline moved down — including Dec 31, which fell 8.0pp. That's a uniform downward shift across the curve, not a "sell the near-term, hold the far-term" rotation. The market read Trump's non-decision as a signal about the underlying difficulty of the deal, not just about timing.
The ceasefire extension chain followed the same pattern. 3 May 29 settled NO (as have all prior dates from Apr 22 through May 29). May 30 sits at 4.5% (-14.0pp from 18.5%). May 31 dropped from 24.5% to 12.5% (-12.0pp).
On the Hormuz side, the "Trump announces blockade lifted by May 31" market fell from 20% to 11.5% (-8.5pp), while "Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 31" (the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average ≥60 transits standard) stayed near-zero at 0.35%. 6 7 Both May 31 deadlines. Both going to zero.
Oil fell with the geopolitical premium. WTI crude dropped to $87.76/barrel (−1.28%), its largest weekly decline since early April, as traders priced out a near-term Hormuz reopening. 8
One unresolved technical issue still sits in the chain: the May 24 ceasefire contract remains in its third UMA dispute cycle at 99.95% Yes. 9 Three full proposed→disputed cycles have completed. The contract's
endDate has been set to null while the oracle dispute plays out. The 24-hour volume of $4.98M on a market nominally at 99.95% indicates active position management — traders who have locked in near-par positions rotating in and out while the resolution remains legally contested. The final determination by UMA will set precedent for how CENTCOM-confirmed strikes intersect with ceasefire resolution criteria across the entire series.Insider-trading caveat (active through ~June 1): House Oversight Chair James Comer's probe into prediction-market insider trading has documents due June 5. 10 No new filings or leaks appeared in the May 29-30 window; the next potential catalyst is the June 5 submission deadline. Iran markets remain at the center of the probe. Position sizing in the Iran cluster should account for the possibility of non-public information asymmetry among counterparties.
Tradeable setups:
- Iran peace deal Dec 31 YES at 70.5¢: Even after an 8pp decline today, 70.5% for a deal by year-end prices in the most optimism remaining on the curve. The near-term collapses (May 31 at 3.4%, Jun 7 at 12.5%) reflect a realistic assessment of the current state of negotiations. For a Dec 31 trade, the relevant question is whether the 60-day Doha MOU framework — which traders priced positively as recently as yesterday at 78.5% — survives the absence of Trump's formal blessing. At 70.5¢, the position assumes ongoing talks without a near-term breakthrough.
- Fade Iran ceasefire extension May 31 YES at 12.5¢: All prior ceasefire extension deadlines (May 23 through May 29) have resolved NO. The May 31 market at 12.5% is above the actuarial base rate given the track record. The simultaneous Situation Room non-decision and ongoing US airstrikes reduce the probability of a formal extension announcement before 11:59 PM ET May 31. Risk: Trump could announce a deal at any point in the next ~14 hours; this resolves YES instantly on any confirmation.
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Bitcoin: Day 11 outflow exhaustion, BTC reclaims $73,800
The 11-day BTC ETF outflow streak continued on May 29, but the rate of change is the signal.
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Day 9 (May 27): −$733.4M (streak peak). Day 10 (May 28): −$223.3M. Day 11 (May 29): −$125.3M. 4 The 11-day cumulative outflow now stands at −$2.96B (May 15–29). By fund on May 29: IBIT (BlackRock) −$68.2M (vs. −$177.9M on May 28, an improvement of +$109.7M), FBTC (Fidelity) −$31.9M (slightly worse from −$19.2M), GBTC (Grayscale) −$2.9M (vs. −$26.2M), GS Mini BTC −$9.7M, ARKB −$7.3M, MSBT −$5.3M. 4 Seven of twelve ETFs reported zero flows — BITB, BTCO, EZBC, BRRR, HODL, BTCW, and one other — which tells you the selling is concentrated in a shrinking set of funds.
IBIT's improvement is the number that matters most. BlackRock's ETF was the single largest outflow driver during the peak days; its deceleration from −$527.8M (May 27) to −$177.9M (May 28) to −$68.2M (May 29) is an 87% reduction in three days.
BTC spot tracked the outflow trajectory. After touching $72,515 on May 29, it recovered to $73,810 by 14:00 UTC May 30 (+1.32% 24h). 5 The 24h high was $74,214 — the first time BTC challenged $74K since before the streak began. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 23 (Extreme Fear), unchanged for three consecutive days. 11 That unchanged reading is itself a data point: sentiment hasn't gotten worse even as daily outflows continued.
Polymarket's BTC price prediction markets confirm the current range. The May 29 close was verified between $72K and $74K (both "BTC closes above $72K" and "BTC closes below $74K" resolved YES). 12 The May 30 close forecast is 79.5% for $72K–$74K range, 20.5% for $74K–$76K. "BTC above $70K" on May 30 sits at 99.95% — the floor is not in question. The "BTC touches $85K in May" contract is at 0.05%, which means the May monthly candle is now effectively closed with a ceiling at current levels.
The geopolitical angle: with Hormuz blockade probability at 11.5% (and falling), one layer of the "BTC as geopolitical hedge" thesis is losing support. 6 Iran risk premium in energy markets has been a secondary tailwind for BTC in recent weeks; as those odds compress, the correlation works against the bull case on that specific leg.
Tradeable setups:
- Fade the BTC ETF outflow streak: Eleven days of outflows, with Day 11 at −$125.3M — 82.9% below the Day 9 peak. The mechanical setup is: the largest institutional sellers (IBIT in particular) appear to be wrapping up their programs. The prior 10-day window produced −$2.84B in outflows; if Day 12 comes in below −$75M or goes flat, it will be the clearest break in the streak's momentum since it started. BTC near $73,800 with the May monthly close approaching is a cleaner entry than mid-streak. Stop: a return above −$200M in Day 12 outflows.
- Monitor MicroStrategy selldown odds at 14.4%: The "MicroStrategy sells BTC before May 31" contract is at 14.4% on $7.8M cumulative volume. 12 A YES resolution here would be a significant overhang signal for spot BTC in the near term.
Fed: Warsh Day 8, Musalem joins the hawks
No FOMC voting member spoke publicly on May 29 or May 30. The Polymarket zero-cuts-2026 market barely moved: 67.4% (+0.1pp from 67.3%). 13 The 24-hour volume on that specific contract was $5,779 — near-zero — suggesting the market sees no new information requiring repricing. The full 2026 cut distribution: 1 cut 18.5%, 2 cuts 7.5%, 3 cuts 3.1%, 4+ cuts under 1% combined. 13
The year-end rate distribution shows the 3.75% ceiling (no change from the current 3.25-3.50% range, i.e., no cuts) as the modal outcome at 42.9%, followed by 4.0% (one hike) at 20.75%, then 4.25% (two hikes) at 7.95%. 14 The probability of any hike (≥4.5% rate ceiling) is 3.75% — still a tail, but present.
The last FOMC speakers before the pre-meeting blackout (which likely begins around June 3 ahead of the June 17 meeting) were on May 28. Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed president, 2026 voting member) told Bloomberg TV that "easing bias no longer fits the economy," a direct repudiation of the stance that dominated late 2025. 15 Reuters reported on May 29 that more Fed policymakers are considering a potential rate hike as inflation risks rise. 8
Kevin Warsh (Fed Chair) is now on Day 8 of silence since his May 22 swearing-in. 8 The June 17 FOMC meeting is approximately 2.5 weeks out. If Warsh follows the standard pre-FOMC blackout schedule, the window for his first substantive public statement is now roughly June 1–3. The Council on Foreign Relations published "What to Expect From Kevin Warsh's Fed in the First 100 Days" on May 26 — the most recent coverage of his appointment — but Warsh himself has not confirmed or rebutted any of its characterizations. His first remarks will be the highest-information event in the Fed calendar before June 17.
Macro context for this snapshot: the S&P 500 extended its record run to 7,580.06 (+0.22%), the 10-year Treasury yield fell 2bp to 4.437%, and Brent crude fell to $91.12/barrel (−0.99% on the day). 8
Tradeable setups:
- Hold zero-cuts 2026 at 67.4¢: Musalem's "easing bias no longer fits" and the Reuters report of more hike-leaning officials reinforce the hawkish base. No catalyst moved the needle this window, but the asymmetry remains: May CPI (due June 11) is the next scheduled event capable of shifting this materially. A hot print could push zero-cuts above 72%. A cool print is the only thing that credibly threatens the 67% floor.
- Watch Warsh's first statement for a rate-hike escalation signal: The 32%+ probability of any 2026 hike is not yet a consensus trade. If Warsh's debut remarks signal openness to hiking — as opposed to extended holding — the hike market could move sharply. Six trading days until the likely pre-FOMC blackout window.
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CFTC: Kalshi gets BTCPERP, Coinbase gets a no-action letter
Two CFTC rulings on May 29 clarified the regulatory perimeter for crypto derivatives and prediction markets simultaneously.
PR 9240-26 approved KalshiEX (a CFTC-designated contract market, or DCM) to list a Bitcoin perpetual futures contract (BTCPERP) referencing the BTC spot price. 16 Kalshi submitted the application under Commission Regulation 40.3 on May 28; the CFTC approved it the next day under Section 5c(c)(4) of the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC's notice flagged that perpetual contract design "may not be appropriate for all asset classes" and encouraged operators to use the voluntary review process for assets outside the BTCPERP structure.
PR 9241-26 confirmed that crypto perpetual contracts that Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM) plans to list through its affiliated foreign exchange Deribit FZE qualify as "foreign futures" under Regulation 30.1. 17 CFTC Staff Letter No. 26-17 issued alongside the ruling takes a no-action position on CFM transferring client digital assets and payment stablecoins as margin to its foreign broker-dealer affiliate — even when that affiliate holds re-use rights on client assets. The two rulings together constitute the CFTC's first systematic framework for crypto perpetuals: domestic path (DCM listing, BTCPERP model) and international path (foreign futures classification, Deribit model).
On the prediction-market jurisdiction front: the CFTC's 7-state litigation count held at seven. No new state filings appeared in the May 29-30 window. 18 19 Rhode Island (filed May 28) remains the most recent. The CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig's statement from the Rhode Island filing: "CFTC-registered exchanges have faced an onslaught of lawsuits seeking to limit Americans' access to event contracts and undermine the CFTC's sole regulatory jurisdiction over prediction markets. This power grab ignores the law and decades of precedent." 18
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Watchlist — next 72 hours
| Date / time | Event | Current Polymarket odds | Signal threshold |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 (~midnight ET) | Iran peace deal — May 31 | 3.4% | Near-certain NO; any Trump statement = instant spike |
| May 31 (~midnight ET) | Iran ceasefire extension — May 31 | 12.5% | All prior dates resolved NO; watch for overnight announcement |
| May 31 (~midnight ET) | Hormuz blockade lifted — May 31 | 11.5% | Near-certain NO without formal US announcement |
| May 30 (after US market close) | BTC ETF Day 12 flow data | — | Below −$75M = streak momentum intact; flat/positive = inflection |
| Jun 1–3 | Warsh first public statement | — | Any hike signal → hike market from 32% toward 40%+ |
| Jun 5 | Comer probe document deadline | — | Iran contract subpoena scope |
| Jun 7 | Iran peace deal — Jun 7 | 12.5% | Next term-structure checkpoint after May 31 expires |
| Jun 11 | May CPI release | — | Hot print → zero-cuts 2026 toward 72%+ |
| Jun 17 | FOMC meeting | 97%+ hold | First Warsh-chaired decision |
The structural frame entering June: the Iran May 31 deadline expires in roughly 14 hours, taking the two highest-volume near-term contracts with it. The June 7 deadline at 12.5% becomes the next focal point in the peace deal term structure. BTC ETF Day 12 data (released after US market close May 30) will either confirm or undercut the exhaustion thesis — IBIT below −$50M or flat would be the clearest positive inflection in the streak. And somewhere in the next six trading days, Warsh speaks for the first time.
Cover image: AI-generated illustration.
References
- 1AP News: Trump weighs whether to go with Iran deal but hasn't decided yet
- 2Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31
- 3Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension
- 4Farside Investors: Bitcoin ETF flow (all data)
- 5CoinGecko: Bitcoin price
- 6Polymarket: Trump announces Hormuz blockade lifted by May 31
- 7Polymarket: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May
- 8Reuters: More Fed policymakers eye possible rate hike as inflation risks rise
- 9Polymarket: Iran ceasefire continues through May 24
- 10CFTC: Press Releases
- 11Alternative.me: Crypto Fear & Greed Index
- 12Polymarket: Bitcoin price prediction markets
- 13Polymarket: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 14Polymarket: What will the Fed rate be at end of 2026?
- 15St. Louis Fed: Bloomberg TV Interview with President Musalem, May 28, 2026
- 16CFTC: Press Release 9240-26 — Kalshi BTCPERP approval
- 17CFTC: Press Release 9241-26 — crypto perpetuals as foreign futures
- 18CFTC: CFTC sues to block state enforcement in Rhode Island — PR 9238-26
- 19CFTC: PressRoom 2026 press releases listing
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