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Polymarket Top Markets This Week

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

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NeoDrop Official

NeoDrop Official

Weekly recap of Polymarket's highest-volume and most volatile prediction markets (elections, geopolitics, crypto, Fed decisions), with the reasoning behind the moves

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

2026-08-10

Polymarket's Aug. 10 board: July jobs reset Fed odds, but Hormuz still fails the physical test

July's weak jobs report pushed the September Fed hike probability from 56.5% to 37.5%, while Hormuz normalization fell to 3.85% despite ongoing talks; the tradeable read is data confirmation over diplomatic headlines.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

2026-08-03

Polymarket's Aug. 3 board: September hike odds jump as Gaza volatility collides with Hormuz risk

The Fed's September hike odds rose to 56.5% while Hormuz normalization stayed weak and Gaza disarmament odds surged on an unimplemented framework—leaving rates as the clearest signal and geopolitics conditional on physical confirmation.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

2026-07-27

Polymarket's July 27 board: Fed hold odds slide as Iran pause resets risk

The July Fed hold remains favored, but hike risk rose sharply as an Iran pause lifted ceasefire odds without restoring Hormuz traffic; Bitcoin ETF flows and the $70,000 threshold add a second, more fragile risk signal.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

2026-07-20

CPI cools, Fed odds crack: Polymarket's July 20 board

June CPI pushed Polymarket's July hike odds to 5.6% while year-end hike risk stayed above 50%, leaving rates, Bitcoin, France, and Hormuz as a split signal board.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

2026-07-13

Hormuz normal traffic: 3%

Hormuz normal-traffic odds collapsed to 3%, with oil, Fed, BTC, France, and Fields Medal markets showing the week’s strongest Polymarket trade signals.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

2026-07-06

Fed odds crack, BTC squeezes

Fed odds fell, BTC squeezed higher, and Polymarket’s weekly signals shifted from last week’s Hormuz lead toward rates, crypto liquidity, Strategy stress, and selective geopolitics trades.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

2026-06-29

Doha talks flip the Hormuz trade

A short interim Polymarket update covering June 28 9:32 AM to June 29 9:00 AM UTC-5. The lead signal shifted from pure Hormuz escalation to a US-Iran diplomacy verification trade, while BTC ETF outflows, Strategy capital-structure stress, and Russia-Ukraine resolution risk remain secondary watch items.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

2026-06-28

Hormuz odds collapse to 3.55%

Hormuz normalization odds fell to 3.55% as US-Iran escalation rippled into oil, nuclear-deal, BTC, and Fed-pricing signals.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

2026-06-26

Russia-Ukraine odds jump to 98%

Russia-Ukraine diplomatic-meeting odds surged to 97.8% without a confirmed public meeting date; Hormuz fell below 10%, BTC stabilized after expiry, and Fed hike risk shifted toward September.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

2026-06-25

BTC at $59K as ETF outflows hit record −$469M

BTC at $59K: record −$469M ETF outflow, Hormuz +12pp spike, Senate war-powers flip, Core PCE keeps hike odds at 53%.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

2026-06-24

Brent hits pre-war lows as tankers exit Hormuz — BTC Day 25 Extreme Fear

Brent crude erases all war premium at $74.73 as three tankers exit Hormuz; IAEA confirms Iran inspections survive the Trump-Tehran inspection dispute; Senate passes a 50-48 war-powers rebuke; BTC logs Day 25 of all-time-record Extreme Fear at $61,289; ETF outflows hit −$113.8M; Polymarket's Hormuz July 31 sits at 44% and the Fed hike-in-2026 binary reads 57.5%.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

Polymarket Top Markets This Week

2026-06-23

BTC crashes to $62K as KOSPI trips twice — and Polymarket's entire geopolitics section goes dark

BTC fell 4.4% to $62,412 on an AI-trade unwind that triggered Korea's KOSPI circuit breakers twice and wiped $530M+ in crypto positions. Simultaneously, Polymarket delisted all 8 Middle East geopolitical markets — eliminating the Hormuz, Iran deal, and Israel-Hezbollah signal layer — while Trump and Iran issued contradictory accounts of inspection talks.

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