Polymarket Top Markets This Week

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Weekly recap of Polymarket's highest-volume and most volatile prediction markets (elections, geopolitics, crypto, Fed decisions), with the reasoning behind the moves

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026/06/29 22:37:40

Doha talks flip the Hormuz trade

A short interim Polymarket update covering June 28 9:32 AM to June 29 9:00 AM UTC-5. The lead signal shifted from pure Hormuz escalation to a US-Iran diplomacy verification trade, while BTC ETF outflows, Strategy capital-structure stress, and Russia-Ukraine resolution risk remain secondary watch items.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026/06/28 22:32:30

Hormuz odds collapse to 3.55%

Hormuz normalization odds fell to 3.55% as US-Iran escalation rippled into oil, nuclear-deal, BTC, and Fed-pricing signals.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026/06/26 22:29:56

Russia-Ukraine odds jump to 98%

Russia-Ukraine diplomatic-meeting odds surged to 97.8% without a confirmed public meeting date; Hormuz fell below 10%, BTC stabilized after expiry, and Fed hike risk shifted toward September.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026/06/25 22:35:18

BTC at $59K as ETF outflows hit record −$469M

BTC at $59K: record −$469M ETF outflow, Hormuz +12pp spike, Senate war-powers flip, Core PCE keeps hike odds at 53%.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026/06/24 22:34:24

Brent hits pre-war lows as tankers exit Hormuz — BTC Day 25 Extreme Fear

Brent crude erases all war premium at $74.73 as three tankers exit Hormuz; IAEA confirms Iran inspections survive the Trump-Tehran inspection dispute; Senate passes a 50-48 war-powers rebuke; BTC logs Day 25 of all-time-record Extreme Fear at $61,289; ETF outflows hit −$113.8M; Polymarket's Hormuz July 31 sits at 44% and the Fed hike-in-2026 binary reads 57.5%.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026/06/23 22:30:17

BTC crashes to $62K as KOSPI trips twice — and Polymarket's entire geopolitics section goes dark

BTC fell 4.4% to $62,412 on an AI-trade unwind that triggered Korea's KOSPI circuit breakers twice and wiped $530M+ in crypto positions. Simultaneously, Polymarket delisted all 8 Middle East geopolitical markets — eliminating the Hormuz, Iran deal, and Israel-Hezbollah signal layer — while Trump and Iran issued contradictory accounts of inspection talks.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026/06/22 22:30:29

Switzerland deal roadmap, Hormuz July 31 crosses 50%

Bürgenstock talks yield a 60-day deal roadmap; Hormuz July 31 surges +9pp to 51% while Brent drops 3.3%.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026/06/21 22:29:49

Bürgenstock talks open, Hormuz July 31 at 42%

US-Iran four-party talks opened at Bürgenstock Sunday even as prediction markets priced further skepticism — Hormuz July 31 fell −3.5pp to 42% and the end-of-June contract hit 6.5% (−1.0pp). Fed hike-in-2026 dropped −5.5pp to 60.5% on a quiet weekend. Bitcoin's Fear & Greed Index extended its unprecedented Extreme Fear streak to 22 consecutive days. The Ethiopia PM market posted $6.25M in 24h volume on an already-expired contract, flagged as a potential UMA dispute to watch.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026/06/20 22:33:09

Hormuz re-closed, enrichment −38pp, day 20 Fear

Iran re-closed Hormuz citing ceasefire violations; enrichment −38pp to 4.5%; 20th straight Extreme Fear day.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026/06/19 22:33:38

Bürgenstock off, Fed hike 65.5%, day-19 Extreme Fear

The planned US-Iran MOU signing at Bürgenstock, Switzerland was scrapped on June 19 after Lebanon flared overnight — Israeli strikes killed 18+, Hezbollah killed four Israeli soldiers, and both JD Vance and the Iranian delegation withdrew. Prediction markets repriced 8–12 hours ahead of news wire coverage: the uranium enrichment contract collapsed −21pp to 42.5%, and the June 19 diplomatic meeting market dropped −53pp to 1.6%. A separate Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire took effect at 4pm Lebanon time. On the Fed side, the hike-in-2026 binary accelerated another +13pp to 65.5% as Warsh's dot-plot continued digesting into market structure. BTC slipped to $63,028; ETF Day 23 deepened to −$90.7M led by IBIT (−$96.7M); Fear & Greed printed 14 — the 19th consecutive Extreme Fear day, a new all-time record.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026/06/18 22:31:50

Iran deal RESOLVED YES, Warsh flips rate-hike odds above 50%

The Iran permanent peace deal resolved YES across all 17 Polymarket deadlines ($478.9M total volume, 4 UMA rounds), closing the biggest geopolitical bet of 2026 after Trump and Pezeshkian signed remotely from the G7. Kevin Warsh's debut FOMC press conference delivered a dot plot median of 3.8% (from 3.4%), pushing the hike-in-2026 binary above 50% for the first time (+22pp) and zero-cuts to 79.65%. BTC absorbed both: −2.2% to $63,796, $406M liquidated across 98,000 traders, ETF Day 22 reversed to −$82.2M, Fear & Greed at 15 — an 18th consecutive Extreme Fear day record. Hormuz end-June normality sits at 12.5%; ~600–1,500 ships remain stranded pending mine clearance and a fee-regime dispute.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026/06/17 22:34:18

Khamenei confirmed dead; Warsh's first FOMC

Khamenei's death upgrades from unconfirmed wildcard to confirmed fact — Iran funeral July 4–9, Polymarket Iran complex at 99.85% Yes ($414.9M disputed vol, 4-round UMA unresolved). FOMC holds at 99.75%; Warsh's 2:30 PM debut dot-plot shift will reset zero-cuts and BTC. BTC ETF Day 21 flips positive (+$10.2M) but BTC drops to $65,240 (−1.17%); 17th consecutive Extreme Fear day (F&G 22) — a new streak record. BlackRock BITA covered-call ETF launched June 16 on Nasdaq.