Burry on Palantir: "No sign of capitulation yet"

"Palantir making a new lower low after an unimpressive low volume topping process. Volume remains low as it makes this new lower low. No sign of capitulation or exhaustion among sellers yet."

That was Michael Burry (Scion Asset Management — the investor whose subprime short in 2007–08 was chronicled in The Big Short) posting to his Substack on June 23, 2026 at 7:20 PM ET, paired with an X post bearing the caption "Rock rock til you drop." 1 2

The message is technically simple and deliberately so: Burry is not forecasting a price target. He is saying the decline has no floor in sight.

Burry's annotated chart — a Bloomberg price-and-volume panel stretching back to 2021 — makes the argument visually:

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) peaked at $207.18 on November 3, 2025. By June 23 it closed at $116.70 — down roughly 44% from that high, roughly 25% in June alone, and about 34% year-to-date. 3 What Burry is flagging is that volume has not picked up on the way down — which, in classical tape-reading terms, means sellers are not panicking, they are being patient. No climactic selloff, no sign of distribution exhausting itself.

The technical read sits on a fundamental thesis Burry has held since at least early June. In a Substack post on June 2, he wrote that Palantir "trades at approximately 16 times its intrinsic value based on my assumptions" and called it "a sand castle, supported for now by the AI applications narrative." 4 That framing has been consistent: the chart is not the thesis, it is the confirmation of the thesis.

Scion's disclosed position, from the November 2025 13F filing, includes put options expiring in December 2026 (strike $100) and June 2027 (strike $50). 4 At the current price of $116.70, the December puts are still out of the money, but the distance has narrowed considerably from a month ago.

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought approximately $9.7 million of PLTR stock on the same day Burry posted his warning. 5 ARK had sold more than $60 million of PLTR between November 2025 and January 2026, bought back roughly $10 million in April, and is now adding again. The two managers represent genuinely opposed frameworks: Burry is betting on mean-reversion of the AI narrative multiple; Wood is betting that the multiple is the correct signal for long-run AI monetization. Both are making the same trade in opposite directions, which at least means the argument is honest.

A Stocktwits poll of roughly 4,000 retail participants taken the same day found that about half plan to wait for PLTR to break below $100 before buying, with 34% comfortable entering at $115–$120. 5 The $100 level coincides almost exactly with Burry's December 2026 put strike — if the stock moves there, his short-dated position comes in the money.

Burry's signal is explicitly about the absence of a bottom, not a specific price call. The tell he is looking for — and explicitly says he has not yet seen — is capitulation: a high-volume, sharp drop that clears the remaining weak hands. Until that happens, his read is that the path of least resistance is down.