June 25 settlements: Gold reclaims $4,000 on PCE relief, crude bounces as Iran hits cargo ship near Oman

Every commodity on the board closed higher Thursday. Gold GCQ6 (Aug) settled at $4,041.60/oz, up $32.80 (+0.82%), ending a six-session losing streak after the May PCE inflation print matched expectations and knocked the dollar off its one-year high. 1 WTI CLQ6 (Aug) surged 2.95% to $71.92/bbl after a cargo ship was struck by a projectile near Oman — two US officials confirmed post-close that Iran fired on the vessel — pausing the IMO's Hormuz evacuation scheme and repricing supply risk. 2 Copper HGN6 (Jul) surged 2.11% to $6.0740/lb after Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia following a landslide, the sharpest single-day copper reversal since the 5-day −8.41% selloff began. December corn ZCN6 snapped a 4-day losing streak with an 8¼¢ gain to $4.43/bu, and soybeans ZSN6 (Nov) added 22¢ to $11.57/bu on confirmed China buying.

GCQ6 (Aug) settled at $4,041.60/oz, up $32.80 (+0.82%) from June 24's $4,008.80, with a session range of $3,976.30–$4,060.00. 1 The June front-month (GCM26) settled at $4,030.50, up $40.20 (+1.01%) — the largest one-day gain since June 15. 1 WSJ confirmed: "Gold settled 1% higher and silver rose 0.5%, with both metals snapping a four-session losing streak." 4

The mechanism was straightforward. May core PCE came in at 3.4% YoY — meeting the consensus estimate exactly, up from 3.3% prior, the highest reading since October 2023. 6 Headline PCE hit 4.1% YoY, driven by a 4% MoM jump in energy goods and services. 6 Personal income rose 0.7% MoM (vs. 0.4% expected) and spending matched at 0.7% MoM. 7 The Q1 GDP final revision was revised up to +2.1% SAAR from the prior 1.6% estimate. 6 Jobless claims came in at 215,000, 8,000 below forecast, pointing to a still-tight labor market. 7

The "sell the fact" dynamic took hold. Because the data landed precisely at expectations — not above — the market had no reason to reprice a more hawkish Fed than was already in the price. The DXY fell from ~101.50 to close at 101.32, its low for the day, and the 10-year yield dipped from 4.447% to 4.39%. 8 Gold and yields moved in opposite directions — the traditional inverse correlation that had broken down on June 24 (when both fell together) re-established itself on June 25.

Vantage Markets analysts described gold's recent behavior in terms that capture the regime: "This is primarily a real-rates and dollar event. Much of the geopolitical risk premium has unwound. The Fed has not." Their conclusion: gold's break below $4,000 on June 24 was "a rate story, not a war story." 9 The bounce on June 25 is consistent with that same frame: relief that the Fed's next move won't be more aggressive than already priced, not a genuine safe-haven bid.

Structurally, CME Chief Economist Erik Norland noted: "Rising core inflation probably helped to pull precious metals prices lower. While precious metals are traditionally viewed as inflation hedges, accelerating inflation is sometimes unwelcome news because it tends to push up short-term interest rate expectations." 10 That tension — between gold's role as an inflation hedge and its sensitivity to rate-hike expectations — defines where the metal sits now. Markets are pricing a December 2026 hike at 82.2% probability and a September hike at 64.9%. 3 Bank of America expects three 25-basis-point hikes in September, October, and December; Citi remains the outlier calling for a cut in October; Mohamed El-Erian has argued "no hikes is more likely" than markets currently price. 11

On the structural demand side, central banks bought 22 tonnes of gold in June, bringing H1 2026 total purchases to 123 tonnes. 5 The PBOC added to its reserves for the 19th consecutive month, holding 2,313 tonnes total. A World Gold Council survey published June 16 showed a record 45% of central banks plan to increase gold reserves over the next 12 months. 9 Goldman Sachs cut its year-end 2026 gold target to $4,900/oz (from $5,400) on June 19–20, removing projected rate cuts from its model; JPMorgan held at $6,000; Deutsche Bank carries a base case of $4,800 for Q4 but flags a risk scenario near $3,800 if the Fed delivers three to four hikes. 12 The $1,100 spread between those two targets reflects fundamentally different models of what drives gold: Goldman treats it as a rate-sensitive financial asset; JPMorgan treats it as a structural store-of-value play.

Month-to-date, gold is down 11.62%; year-to-date, GCQ6 is off $295/oz (−6.82%). The January 29 high of $5,318.40 sits 24% above Thursday's close. 4

WTI CLQ6 (Aug) settled at $71.92/bbl, up $2.06 (+2.95%) from June 24's post-war low of $69.86. 2 Brent BZN6 (Aug) settled at $75.26/bbl, up $1.52 (+2.10%) from $73.87, reversing an intraday dip that had sent Brent as low as ~$72.46 — the lowest print since February 27, the last trading day before the US-Iran war began. 13 US gasoline futures jumped ~5% and diesel gained ~4% in the post-attack repricing. 2

The session had three distinct phases.

Phase one (early session): oil fell to those pre-war lows as confirmed Hormuz throughput hit 4.8 million barrels per day — up from essentially zero in May, though still only 32% of the pre-war 15 million bpd baseline. 13 Energy Secretary Chris Wright disclosed that at least 20 million barrels had exited the strait in the previous 24 hours. 13 Gelber & Associates described the early-session move as crude having become "increasingly oversold" after nine consecutive sessions below the pre-war level, triggering "technical buying and short-covering." 2

Phase two (mid-session): the cargo ship attack inverted the price direction. A Singapore-flagged container vessel, the Ever Lovely, was struck by an unknown projectile 7.5 nautical miles southeast of Oman's port of Dahit. The vessel was not transiting under the IMO's evacuation framework and continued through the strait without casualties (confirmed by UKMTO), but the attack was enough. 14 IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez announced a temporary pause of the evacuation plan: "I have decided to temporarily pause its implementation in order to reconfirm that the necessary safety guarantees continue to be in place for the ships on our evacuation list and all those in the region." 15 Of the 57 ships and ~1,100 seafarers that had transited under the plan from June 23 through the morning of June 25, none were harmed — but at least 5 vessels turned back after Iran's renewed threat. 16

Phase three (post-close confirmation): two US officials told Reuters that Iran had fired on the Ever Lovely. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) had warned earlier that vessels "passing outside designated routes shall bear responsibility." 17 Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf put Tehran's position starkly: "Everyone should know that the administration of the Strait of Hormuz will never go back to the way it was before the war." 18

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Rubio concluded his three-day Gulf tour in Bahrain, leaving with a GCC-US joint statement that backed "free, unconditional, and unrestricted navigation" in Hormuz without "any tolls, fees, or attempts to assert control." 19 Rubio drew the line for Iran: "No country on Earth has the right to charge for the use of international waterways." 19 WSJ had previously reported Iran estimates Hormuz security fees could yield $40 billion per year — the economic stakes behind the confrontation. 18

Rystad Energy flagged the physical constraint that persists regardless of diplomatic progress: "Storage tanks across the Gulf are around 50% to 60% full, so if tanker traffic through the strait does not pick up in the near term, producers will need to throttle back output, and the full recovery moves into next year." 2

Adding a structural wildcard, Reuters reported Thursday that Iraq has considered leaving OPEC if the cartel does not allow Baghdad to significantly raise its production quota. 20 Iraq's July quota is 4.378 million bpd, but war-disrupted Hormuz exports constrained actual May output to 1.48 million bpd. 20 Iraq's oil ministry subsequently distanced itself from the report, but a senior official simultaneously stated Saudi Arabia and OPEC allies "should treat this matter with the utmost seriousness." 20 The threat follows UAE's exit from OPEC in April 2026. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have remained publicly silent on the matter for three consecutive days. 21

On the downstream side, Trump's June 24 Truth Social post ordering the DOJ to investigate oil company "price gouging" generated Chevron's first official response. CFO Eimear Bonner told CNBC: "It's going to take time. There is a lag between oil prices and reductions in oil prices and when that shows up at the pump, but we expect that prices will come down as things continue to normalize." 22 The national average pump price was $3.91/gallon on June 25 (down from a May peak near $4.57), and GasBuddy projects $3.75 for July 4 — which would be the second-most-expensive Independence Day on record, behind 2022's $4.80. 23

Russia's fuel crisis continued to deepen in parallel. Fuel rationing had spread to at least 56 Russian regions by June 25, with gasoline prices in Tyva reaching 90.63 rubles/liter — a one-week jump of 9.2% (Rosstat data). 24 Deputy PM Alexander Novak confirmed the government is weighing a full diesel export ban to add to existing gasoline and jet fuel export bans. 24 Carnegie's Sergey Vakulenko: "The amount of gasoline available in Russia at the moment is determined by a race between Ukrainian drones and Russian repair teams." 24

COMEX copper HGN6 (Jul) settled at $6.0740/lb, up $0.1255 (+2.11%) from June 24's $5.9485, with a session range of $5.9510–$6.0910. 25 The bounce ended a five-session losing streak during which the contract dropped $0.5460/lb (−8.41%) — the worst five-day performance since August 2025. 25 Open interest stood at 32,379 contracts.

The catalyst was supply-side. Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at the Grasberg mine in Papua, Indonesia after a landslide halted operations. 26 Grasberg produces approximately 1.7 billion pounds (~770,000 tonnes) of copper annually, representing roughly 3.2% of global copper supply. 26 The mine is also the world's largest single gold deposit by some measures, meaning the force majeure adds a byproduct supply concern for gold as well. S&P Global put the direct supply impact at approximately 600,000 tonnes of annual capacity offline. 26

Year-to-date, copper is still up 6.67%; the 52-week range runs from $4.33 to $6.72. 25 The broader structural thesis — a 600,000-tonne 2026 deficit, TC/RC rates below −$100/tonne, LME stocks at 1974 lows — remains intact. Thursday's Grasberg shock is a fresh supply-side reminder of that fragility. An official Freeport press release confirming the landslide's production timeline had not been published as of settlement.

December corn (ZCN6) settled at 442.75¢/bu, up 8.00¢ (+1.84%) from June 24's ~434.75¢, on volume of 222,140 contracts (111% of the 65-day average). 27 July corn was up 7½¢ from prior settlement. The overnight session had hit a new contract low before reversing sharply by mid-morning.

DTN analysts described what happened: "Rumors that China is seeking September-October U.S. soybeans and the appearance of sales to China and unknown in the morning sales report have buyers flocking to the market. Add to that a hot and dry ridge expected to move into the central Corn Belt starting this weekend, and a bullish fire has been lit." 28 DTN noted that December corn "appears to have formed a key reversal today" — a single-session pattern where the contract hits a new contract low intraday but closes above the prior session's range. 28

The USDA weekly export sales report (week ending June 18, published June 25) showed corn MY25/26 net sales of 743,100 metric tons, down 36% week-over-week and 27% below the four-week average, led by Mexico (307,300 MT) and Japan (161,700 MT). 29 New-crop corn (MY26/27) was 735,900 MT. 29 Cumulative MY25/26 corn exports sit at 3.333 billion bushels, versus 2.660 billion in 2024/25 — still running well ahead of year-ago pace despite the week's decline. 30

A June 28–29 heatwave is building for the eastern US, with heat indices forecast at 100–110°F for several days. DTN meteorologist John Baranick argued the market's muted initial reaction was rational: "A big June-July heatwave is usually a killer for U.S. agriculture, but corn and soybean markets don't seem to be reacting to the coming heat. That's because this particular heatwave may be just what some areas of the country need." 31 The heat would dry out excessively wet areas in Missouri, Illinois, and the southern Corn Belt while adding growing degree days in the cooler northern Corn Belt. If it extends beyond one week, however, soil moisture in already-dry Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin would deteriorate. 31 Dr. Michael Cordonnier held his 2026 US corn yield at 182.0 bu/ac with a neutral bias, noting that "cooler temperatures have slowed corn development somewhat, but hotter temperatures are predicted for next week." 32

The USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports due June 30 are the next structural test. A Kluis Commodity Advisors/Successful Farming pre-report survey puts corn planted acres at 96.5 million — 1.2 million above USDA's March projection of 95.3 million and 1.4 million above trade consensus of 95.1 million. Al Kluis called those results "slightly negative for corn." 33

November soybeans (ZSN6) settled at 1,157.00¢/bu, up 22.00¢ (+1.94%) from June 24's 1,135.00¢, extending June 24's +1.61% soybean meal-driven rally into a two-day total gain of approximately 40¢ from June 23's 1,117¢. 34 Soybean meal (SM July) was up $2.60/ton; crude oil's intraday reversal (+$1.06 to $71.40) provided a supporting tailwind for soybean oil and the broader soy complex. 34

The primary driver was China. The USDA weekly export sales report confirmed a purchase of 200,000 MT of new-crop (MY26/27) US soybeans by China — the first notable China purchase to appear in USDA data in weeks. 29 Total new-crop soybean sales reached 902,200 MT for the week, led by unknown destinations (529,000 MT) and China (200,000 MT). 30 Brownfield Ag News interpreted the combined signal: "Signs that Beijing might be ramping up purchases of U.S. beans, even as Brazil maintains a hold over the global market due to price." 29

A separate USDA-confirmed flash sale of 372,000 MT soybeans to unknown destinations (60,000 MT MY25/26 + 312,000 MT MY26/27) had been reported in the prior session. 35 Grain Market Insider (Stewart-Peterson) described the soy move: "Soybeans ended the day sharply higher due to rumors that China is looking at more purchases of U.S. soybeans. Funds may also be repositioning ahead of the USDA reports on June 30." 34

Old-crop soybean MY25/26 net sales were 455,400 MT (+7% week-over-week, +50% above the four-week average); soybean shipments hit a marketing-year low at 217,000 MT (−61% week-over-week), reflecting logistical lags. 30 Dr. Cordonnier held the 2026 soybean yield estimate at 52.5 bu/ac (neutral bias). 32 The Kluis pre-report survey puts soybean acres at 83.5 million — 1.2 million below USDA's March 84.7 million projection and 1.7 million below trade consensus of 85.2 million; Kluis described this as "slightly bullish for soybeans." 33

In the Corn Belt, storm-damaged Illinois and Iowa fields face a separate challenge. Farm Journal agronomist Ken Ferrie documented three distinct nutrient failure patterns from recent heavy rain and hail: oxygen starvation in waterlogged low spots, sulfur deficiency, and nitrogen deficiency from leaching. 36 Early-planted soybean yield premiums in hail-damaged fields have been erased. Soybean nodules in flooded areas are dead; nitrogen fixation may take 10–14 days to resume after fields dry. 36

EU wheat provided a faint international signal: Paris/MATIF December wheat gained €1.75 to €214.25/MT as a historic heatwave placed multiple French departments on red alert. London November wheat added £1.25 to £181.50. US grain markets largely shrugged. Sam Hudson of Corn Belt Marketing put the disconnect directly: "The market doesn't care. That is something that you're going to have to derive here down the road and start to tally up what that means." 37

The June 25 macro setup can be read as a temporary narrowing of divergence pressures. The DXY retreated from its one-year high of 101.80 (set June 24) to close at 101.32, down 0.29 on the day. 38 The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.39% (down from 4.447%), and the 10-year TIPS real yield sat at 2.22%. 8 These moves were small — the dollar is still at a 13-month high and real yields are still sharply positive — but their direction was sufficient to trigger the "sell-the-fact" relief trade.

The PCE data itself pointed to an uncomfortable mix. Core PCE of 3.4% YoY is the highest since October 2023. Headline PCE of 4.1% YoY is the highest since April 2023, driven primarily by energy. 6 Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, framed the consumer side: "Inflation is at a 3-year high due to the war in Iran and it's painful for middle-class and moderate-income Americans. People are spending more on gas, along with healthcare and utilities." 7 Even with elevated inflation, personal spending came in at +0.7% MoM — above the +0.6% forecast — suggesting demand is still running despite the price pressure. 7

The equity response was muted and mixed. The Dow gained 0.14% to 51,920.62; the S&P 500 slipped 0.01% to 7,357.49; the Nasdaq fell 0.46% to 25,358.60. 4 The VIX closed at 18.89 (+1.40%), reflecting residual uncertainty from the Hormuz attack rather than a broad risk-on session. 4

The key structural tension is that rate-hike pricing and commodity price relief are pulling in opposite directions. Rates at current levels — with two hikes possibly still ahead — create a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold and for global growth-sensitive commodities like copper. At the same time, a Hormuz that remains contested (throughput at 32% of pre-war levels, Iran attacking vessels that deviate from designated routes, Iraq threatening to leave OPEC) means the supply-risk premium cannot fully deflate. Byron Anderson of Laffer Tengler Investments argued the market may be overpricing the rate path: "The market is way too aggressive in pricing rate hikes, mistaking that oil inflation pushing through food prices and everything else will persist." 10 The next hard test is the USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports on June 30 and the next EIA WPSR release on July 1 (covering the week ended June 26), which will show whether the nine-week crude drawdown continued or reversed as Hormuz outflows accelerated. 13