Iran's May cycle closes at zero — and a Google engineer bet $2.7M on company secrets

Iran's May cycle closes at zero — and a Google engineer bet $2.7M on company secrets

The Iran May 31 deadline completed the full closure cycle — peace deal at 1.35% YES, ceasefire extension at 3.3%, Hormuz at 0.15%, all effectively NO — while the Dec 31 deal holds at 70.5%. The CFTC charged Google security engineer Michele Spagnuolo with using nonpublic Year-in-Search data to place $2.7M on Polymarket and pocket $1.2M. BTC is flat at $73,692 on a non-trading Saturday; the 11-day ETF outflow streak is frozen at −$2.96B. Fed zero-cuts climbs to 67.9%; Warsh enters Day 9 of silence with a ~5-day window before the June 6 FOMC blackout.

Polymarket Top Markets Today
Polymarket Top Markets Today@NeoDrop Official
2026/5/31 · 22:28
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Coverage window: May 30, 14:29 ET → May 31, 14:00 ET (~23.5 hours)
The Iran May 31 deadline expired almost exactly as the market priced it: both the permanent peace deal and the ceasefire extension arrived at near-zero YES with no Trump announcement. That completes the full May Iran cycle — every peace deal and extension deadline from April through May 31 has now resolved NO. 1 2
The curve isn't done though. June 30 ceasefire extension sits at 65.5% YES. December 31 peace deal holds at 70.5% YES. The market is pricing a genuine freeze-then-breakthrough pattern, not a blanket rejection of a deal. 1
Elsewhere: the CFTC filed charges this week against Michele Spagnuolo — a Google security engineer in Zurich who allegedly used nonpublic Year-in-Search data to place $2.7M in Polymarket bets and pocket $1.2M in profit under the handle "AlphaRaccoon." 3 The FBI traced him through a careless $150K withdrawal. It's the third CFTC Polymarket insider-trading case.
BTC is in a weekend holding pattern at $73,692 (−0.17%); no ETF flow data until Monday. Fed zero-cuts odds ticked to 67.9% on April PCE coming in at 3.8% year-over-year. Warsh enters Day 9 of silence with roughly five trading days before the June 6 FOMC blackout. 4 5

This window at a glance

MarketCurrent prob24h change24h volume
US x Iran peace deal — May 311.35%−2.05pp$2.45M
US x Iran peace deal — Jun 711.5%−1pp$734K
US x Iran peace deal — Jun 3029%−0.5pp$216K
US x Iran peace deal — Dec 3170.5%−0pp (wk: −11pp)$6.12M
Iran ceasefire extension — May 313.3%−9.2pp$328K
Iran ceasefire extension — Jun 313.5%−14pp$430K
Iran ceasefire extension — Jun 3065.5%−3pp$512K
Iran ceasefire continues — May 24 (UMA disputed)99.95% YES—$1.38M
Hormuz traffic normal — May 310.15%−0.2pp$1.14M
Fed zero cuts in 202667.9%+0.45pp$9,073
BTC spot$73,692−0.17%—
BTC ETF net flow (Day 12)no data (weekend)——
Fear & Greed Index28 (Fear)+5 vs prior—
MicroStrategy sells BTC by May 318.1%−6.3pp$523K

Iran: the May cycle closes, the curve prices a summer stall

Every Iran contract with a May deadline arrived at near-zero YES by this morning. The peace deal May 31 market (id 1919425, $81.5M total volume — the single largest Iran sub-market ever traded on Polymarket) sat at 1.35% YES as of the 14:00 UTC snapshot. 6 The ceasefire extension May 31 (id 2340843) hit 3.3% YES, down 9.2pp in the window. 7 Formal resolution pending ET midnight — but both are done.
The catalyst for this window: CENTCOM confirmed on May 30 that US forces disabled a sixth commercial vessel — a Gambia-flagged ship that ignored more than 20 warnings before attempting to enter an Iranian port in defiance of the naval blockade. 8 Combined, 6 ships disabled and 116 redirected. Trump held another Situation Room session on Friday to review a potential deal; no announcement followed.
According to AP, the framework under discussion would extend the ceasefire by 60 days, gradually ease the blockade, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz incrementally. 8 Defense Secretary Hegseth told reporters that if negotiations break down, Iran could "deal with the War Department." 8 Iran continues to characterize the blockade as a violation of the existing ceasefire.
The full peace deal term structure, as of 14:00 UTC May 31: 1
DeadlineCurrent probDay changeWeek changeVol
May 311.35%−2.05pp−48.15pp$81.5M total
Jun 711.5%−1pp−40.5pp$5.17M
Jun 1519.5%+1pp−34pp$4.77M
Jun 3029%−0.5pp−29pp$16.49M
Jul 3141.5%−2pp−28pp$3.54M
Dec 3170.5%flat−11pp$6.12M
What stands out in that table: Jun 7 dropped 40.5pp in a single week — the steepest collapse at any single node in the curve. June is now pricing a near-certain miss. But Dec 31 held at 70.5% even as everything around it fell. The "freeze then deal" shape is intact.
The ceasefire extension chain tells the same story at shorter time horizons. 2 Jun 3 sits at 13.5% (down 14pp in one day), Jun 7 at 32.5%, and Jun 30 at 65.5%. The June 30 number is the operative market signal: traders assign roughly 2-in-3 odds that the US and Iran announce some form of new ceasefire extension before month-end, even though they see almost no chance of it happening this week.
One open sore from last week: the May 24 ceasefire continuity market (id 2308197) remains stuck in its third UMA dispute cycle. 9 The umaResolutionStatuses array has logged six entries — proposed → disputed → proposed → disputed → proposed → disputed — with no resolution date set. The dispute turns on whether CENTCOM's May 25 strike constitutes a "kinetic military action on Iranian soil" under Polymarket's market rules. ($28.7M total volume; 99.95% YES while legally contested.)
Tradeable setups:
  • Jun 30 ceasefire extension YES at 65.5¢: The gap between Jun 3 (13.5%) and Jun 30 (65.5%) — a 52pp spread in less than 30 days — is the curve's biggest single information signal. The market isn't pricing slow diplomacy; it's pricing a gap, then a jump. The 60-day MOU framework reported by AP (if real) maps directly onto June 30. Entry here banks on that framework materializing before month-end. Hard stop: a breakdown confirmed by US or Iranian official statement takes Jun 30 toward the 20% range quickly.
  • Short Jun 7 peace deal YES at 11.5¢: Jun 7 at 11.5% has now dropped 40.5pp in one week. The only event in the next seven days capable of triggering a YES is a surprise Trump-Khamenei announcement — which the past two Situation Room sessions have failed to produce. The base rate from the prior four weekly misses argues for sub-5%. Risk: Trump deal announcements are exactly the kind of event that happens on a Saturday morning with no warning.
  • Hold May 24 UMA position passively: No trading edge while resolution is in the hands of UMA arbiters. Monitor umaResolutionStatuses for a 7th entry. A final YES resolution (likely, given 99.95% market pricing) unlocks the $28.7M pool.
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Fed: Warsh's 18 words, a PCE surprise, and Powell's last bow tonight

April PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) data landed Friday: headline at 3.8% year-over-year — the fastest pace in two years and close to double the Fed's 2% target. 10 Core PCE held at 3.3% year-over-year (highest since October 2023). The one dovish data point: core PCE month-over-month came in at 0.2%, below the 0.3% economists expected. 10 That single softer reading knocked the dollar briefly, but didn't change the bigger picture: CME FedWatch shows a 98.9% probability that Kevin Warsh holds rates at 3.50%–3.75% at the June 17 FOMC. 10
On Polymarket, zero cuts in 2026 ticked up to 67.9% (+0.45pp). The 1-cut bucket holds at 18.0%, 2-cut at 8.0%. Hike-pricing via prediction markets remains concentrated in the zero-cut market rather than an explicit hike market. 4
The more watched Fed story today is Warsh himself. 24/7 Wall St published an analysis focused on 18 words from his April Senate confirmation testimony: "I believe that price stability should be a change in prices such that no one's talking about it." 5 Columnist Rich Duprey reads that sentence as setting a bar higher than a 2% numerical target — Warsh may be signaling he wants inflation to fade from public consciousness entirely before declaring victory.
"If restoring the Fed's credibility becomes the primary objective, Warsh may be willing to tolerate slower economic growth and softer labor markets in exchange for permanently anchoring inflation expectations." — Rich Duprey, 24/7 Wall St 5
Warsh is now Day 9 of post-inauguration silence (sworn in May 22). The FOMC blackout window starts June 6, leaving him roughly five trading days — June 1 through June 5 — to make his first public statement as Chair before he goes silent again until June 18. 5 Jerome Powell, who stepped down last month, accepts the JFK Profile in Courage Award tonight at 8:30 PM ET — his first major public appearance since leaving the Fed. Any comments on monetary policy or the inflation outlook would move markets given the Warsh communication vacuum.
Macro backdrop for context: S&P 500 at 7,580.06 (record high, +0.22%), 10-year Treasury yield 4.437% (−1.6bp), Brent crude Aug'26 at $91.12 after posting its largest monthly loss since COVID — down more than 19% in May. 11 12 Energy analyst Rory Johnston described an extended US-Iran ceasefire as the "worst case" scenario for oil prices — meaning any diplomatic progress that narrows the Hormuz risk premium will keep oil under pressure.
Tradeable setups:
  • Hold zero-cuts 2026 YES at 67.9¢: April PCE at 3.8% reinforces the no-cut base. The next significant catalyst is the next PCE reading on June 25, followed by Warsh's debut remarks (June 1–5 window). Neither is likely to push zero-cuts materially below 65%. Upside catalyst: a hawkish Warsh statement could push toward 72%.
  • Monitor Powell tonight: If Powell critiques the current policy stance or signals the Fed fell behind the curve, that language could move the hike-versus-hold debate. A sharp comment from a former chair stepping out of the silence he's kept since leaving office carries unusual weight in a vacuum where the sitting chair hasn't spoken at all.

BTC: weekend freeze, ETF streak paused at Day 11

Saturday is not a trading day for US ETFs, so there is no Day 12 flow figure. The 11-day consecutive outflow streak (May 12–29) remains frozen with a cumulative loss of −$2.96B. 13 The next data point arrives after the June 1 US market close.
BTC spot settled near $73,692 (−0.17%) at the 14:00 UTC snapshot. 14 Analysts at crypto.news put near-term support at $71,400 and resistance at $78,200, with volume remaining subdued on the weekend. 15 The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 28 (Fear), up 5 points from last reading's 23 (Extreme Fear). 16 Sentiment is no longer deteriorating even as the ETF streak and macro headwinds remain in place.
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Week 3 (May 26–29, only 4 trading days) saw −$1,415.6M in outflows — the worst single week of the streak. 13 Whether Monday June 1 opens with continued selling or a deceleration is the key data question entering the new week.
The Polymarket "MicroStrategy sells any BTC by May 31" market hit 8.1% YES (−6.3pp in the window, $523K in 24h volume). 17 That contract expires today; 91.9% NO implies the market sees almost no chance Strategy executed a sale before today's close.
Tradeable setups:
  • Watch Day 12 as the streak inflection test: If Monday June 1 comes in below −$50M or turns flat, it breaks the outflow momentum that has made Day 11 look like it belongs to a structural selling program. IBIT (BlackRock) is the key data series — it drove the majority of peak outflows (−$527.8M on Day 9) and decelerated to −$68.2M by Day 11. A second-consecutive deceleration would be the clearest positive break.
  • $71,400 support vs. $78,200 resistance: crypto.news technical read. 15 BTC has held above $72K through the entire streak. A break below $71,400 on Monday reopening + fresh large ETF outflows would be a stacked bearish signal. The inverse — ETF deceleration + spot holding $73K over the weekend — is the bull case entering June.

CFTC: "AlphaRaccoon" — the Google engineer who bet $2.7M on company secrets

On May 27, the CFTC filed a civil complaint (PR 9237-26) against Michele Spagnuolo, a 36-year-old Google information security engineer based in Zurich. 3 The Southern District of New York filed parallel criminal charges the same day.
The CFTC's case: Spagnuolo accessed restricted, nonpublic Google Year-in-Search 2025 trend data — internal rankings available to "only a limited number of employees" — and used it to place approximately $2.7M across 25 bets on Polymarket between October and December 2025. 3 He allegedly bet on at least 23 Year-in-Search contracts, including "#1 Searched Person" and "Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2025," with what the CFTC calls "near-perfect accuracy." His Polymarket handle: "AlphaRaccoon." Alleged profit: $1.2M. 18
The takedown came from a November 2025 withdrawal: $150K moved from Polymarket → crypto swap → payment processor → an account registered in Spagnuolo's name using an Italian ID. FBI investigators followed the chain from there. 18 Google placed him on administrative leave and said it is cooperating with the investigation.
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig's statement: "As I have said repeatedly, the Commission will not tolerate fraud, manipulation, or insider trading, regardless of the technology or platform that is used." 3 Director of Enforcement David I. Miller added: "Employees who are entrusted with confidential business information cannot misappropriate that information for personal financial gain." 3
This is the third CFTC Polymarket insider-trading prosecution: the second was a US service member charged in the Maduro-related contracts (PR 9217-26, April 23, 2026). 3 The pattern of cases — a government service member, a tech corporate employee, possibly a Congressional staffer (via the Comer probe, documents due June 5) — suggests the CFTC is systematically working through the categories of insider-trading exposure on prediction markets.
Spagnuolo case coverage in Mint
CFTC charges Google security engineer Michele Spagnuolo ("AlphaRaccoon") with insider trading on Polymarket, May 27, 2026. 18
The jurisdiction battle on a separate track: Rhode Island became the 7th state the CFTC has sued to block from applying state gambling laws to federally-registered contract markets (PR 9238-26, May 28). 19 Chairman Selig characterized the wave of state actions as "an onslaught of lawsuits seeking to limit Americans' access to event contracts... This power grab ignores the law and decades of precedent." 19 The May 29 regulatory package (KalshiEX BTCPERP approval, Coinbase/Deribit foreign-futures no-action letter, perpetuals policy statement, 24/7 trading advisory) represents the CFTC's most active week of crypto-derivatives rulemaking in 2026 — but no new releases followed on May 30 or 31. 20
The trading implication for Polymarket users: the Spagnuolo case demonstrates the CFTC has the forensic capability to trace large Polymarket wins through crypto rails back to a named identity. Three confirmed cases in six weeks. Participants in high-volume information-sensitive markets (search trends, government data releases, tech product launches) should be aware that the CFTC is specifically monitoring prediction markets for misappropriation of nonpublic information.
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Sports: UCL settles, World Cup NO-farming at 77% volume share

Arsenal defeated PSG in the UEFA Champions League Final on May 30, settling a $55.7M complex across five related Polymarket markets. 21 The PSG win market alone settled at $27.2M (yesterday's top market by volume). The Arsenal win market settled at $10.3M.
Going into the weekend, sports now occupies 77% of total Polymarket 24h volume — $48.4M out of $62.9M total, across 24 of the top 40 markets. 22 The driver is World Cup winner markets ahead of June 11 kickoff: Qatar (#1, $9.78M), New Zealand (#2, $8.76M), Saudi Arabia (#3, $7.63M) — all priced near zero YES. These markets are structured as NO bets on long-shot teams — a practice called "NO-farming" where traders accumulate cheap NO shares on heavy underdogs before resolution — and the volume reflects pre-tournament position-building rather than informed directional views. Five Roland Garros (French Open) matches round out the sports picture; NBA Finals (Spurs vs. Knicks) holds two slots.
The Fed rate-cut markets have dropped entirely out of the top 40 — zero slots, compared to several present in prior sessions. The only crypto market in the top 40 is the MicroStrategy May 31 expiry at $523K.

Watchlist — next 72 hours

Date / timeEventCurrent market signalSignal threshold
May 31 (midnight ET)Iran peace deal — May 31 formal resolution1.35% YESNear-certain NO; watch for official Polymarket resolve
May 31 (midnight ET)Iran ceasefire extension — May 31 formal resolution3.3% YESNear-certain NO; all prior dates resolved NO
May 31 (8:30 PM ET)Powell accepts JFK Profile in Courage Award—Any policy comment moves Fed hike/hold market
Jun 1 (after US close)BTC ETF Day 12 flow datastreak frozen at 11 daysBelow −$50M = streak intact; flat/positive = inflection signal
Jun 1–5Warsh first public statement windowDay 9 of silenceAny hint of hike openness → hike market from sub-35% toward 40%+
Jun 3Iran ceasefire extension — Jun 313.5% YES−14pp in one day; another near-miss resolves
Jun 5Comer probe: documents due—Scope of Iran-market subpoenas; no leaks detected yet
Jun 6FOMC blackout begins—Warsh window closes; no Fed communication until Jun 18
Jun 7Iran peace deal — Jun 711.5% YESNext term-structure checkpoint
Jun 11FIFA World Cup kicks off—World Cup markets shift from NO-farming to live match bets
Jun 25May PCE data release—Hot print → zero-cuts toward 72%; soft print → cut probability creeps back
The structural read as June opens: the entire May Iran event cycle has cleared. June 30 ceasefire extension (65.5%) and December 31 peace deal (70.5%) are the live positions to manage. Warsh's first statement is the highest-information Fed event before June 17's FOMC. And the BTC ETF streak's Day 12 on Monday will either confirm that the selling is fading or extend the record to 12 consecutive outflow days.
Cover image: AI-generated illustration.

参考来源

  1. 1Polymarket Gamma API: US x Iran permanent peace deal event
  2. 2Polymarket Gamma API: ceasefire extension event
  3. 3CFTC Press Release 9237-26: Google employee insider trading
  4. 4Polymarket Gamma API: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
  5. 524/7 Wall St: 18 Words From Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
  6. 6Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31
  7. 7Polymarket: ceasefire extension May 31 market
  8. 8WESH 2 News: US fires at commercial ship while enforcing blockade on Iranian ports
  9. 9Polymarket Gamma API: Iran ceasefire continues through event
  10. 10CryptoSlate: New US inflation report leaves Bitcoin with a problem the Fed cannot solve yet
  11. 11CNBC: Brent oil price in May posts biggest monthly loss since 2020
  12. 12Reuters: More Fed policymakers eye possible rate hike as inflation risks rise
  13. 13Farside Investors: Bitcoin ETF flow
  14. 14CoinGecko: Bitcoin price
  15. 15crypto.news: Bitcoin price rebound to $75K?
  16. 16Alternative.me: Crypto Fear & Greed Index
  17. 17Polymarket Gamma API: top markets by volume
  18. 18Mint (Livemint): Google techie bet $2.7 million on Polymarket
  19. 19CFTC Press Release 9238-26: CFTC sues to block state enforcement in Rhode Island
  20. 20CFTC: Press Release 9242-26 — perpetual contracts policy statement
  21. 21Polymarket Gamma API: closed markets (UCL final)
  22. 22Polymarket Gamma API: top 40 markets by 24h volume
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