AGI Timeline Bets

Weekly Line Move #1: Where the AGI markets stand right now

The inaugural issue of AGI Timeline Bets maps the current state of Metaculus and Manifold AGI prediction markets: five core Metaculus questions, the Manifold RemNi probability series implying a median around 2031–2032, and the definition-driven spread that explains most of the platform divergence. No AGI prediction — just the calibrated beliefs of 300–1,900 forecasters and what the numbers actually say.