特朗普五千美元撒钱、万斯全职妈妈补贴与“AI 毁灭论”心战：《Reason》拆解民粹诺言与末日恐慌

先记住三件事

1. 特朗普全民发放 5,000 美元不仅是买票，更是狂奔的民粹通胀机器。 美国政府背负数十万亿美元巨额国债，所谓“红利”根本没有盈利资产背书，凭空印钞只会重创物价；但相较于传统政客将巨资伪装成公共政策定向输送给特定利益集团，这种普遍性撒钱彻底扯下了政策遮羞布，退化为古罗马式的“面包与马戏”。
2. 万斯补贴全职妈妈的政策工程打不过机会成本与鲍莫尔成本病。 现代女性受教育水平提升导致全职带娃的机会成本呈代际暴增，而托育属于无法轻易被机器替代的劳动密集型服务，价格必然随全社会工资水涨船高；保守派一面抱怨育儿贵、一面严厉排斥移民，而真正能降低托育成本的市场化解法恰恰是放开基础照护类合法移民。
3. “AI 毁灭人类（p(doom)=10%）”是兼具媒体嗜血与巨头寻租的现代心战。 所谓十年内毁灭全人类的概率缺乏严谨科学推导，大模型真正的近期风险不是天网灭世，而是以“绝对安全”为名剥夺个人自由的管家式极权（Safetyism）；Anthropic 与 OpenAI 大肆游说严苛安全立法，实质是试图以重合规成本绞杀开源模型与后来竞争者的典型监管俘渴（Regulatory Capture）。

主讲人背景与自由意志主义方法论

• 罗比·索夫（Robby Soave）：《Reason》杂志资深编辑、Hill TV 晨间旗舰政论节目《Rising》联合主持人。他著有《科技恐慌：我们为什么不该恐惧 Facebook 与未来》（Tech Panic: Why We Shouldn't Fear Facebook and the Future）以及《恐慌袭击》（Panic Attack），长期深耕社交媒体监管、言论自由与科技政策，以敏锐拆解“道德恐慌”见长。4
• 克里斯蒂安·布里奇吉（Christian Britschgi）：《Reason》副主编、住房解绑与城市政策专栏《Rent Free》主理人。他长期追踪美国各州的土地分区规划（Zoning）、产权保护与建筑监管，擅长从供给侧障碍剖析生活成本危机。5

极速狂奔的民粹主义：特朗普 5,000 美元“红利”与政治买票的本质

• “红利”的前提是盈利，而政府背负巨债：企业分红基于商业净利润，而美国联邦政府目前背负超过 35 万亿美元国债，连年维持万亿美元以上的巨额财政赤字。这笔凭空拨付的资金没有任何财富创造相对应，唯一来源只能是进一步举债印钞。
• 火上浇油的通胀反噬：此前拜登签署的《通胀削减法案》曾因巨额补贴饱受批评，而特朗普这一方案被两位主讲人戏称为“通胀加剧法案”。直接向全民普撒现金在疫情期间已被证实是引爆战后最严重通胀的直接元凶。

生育政策的经济学幻觉：万斯家庭补贴为何打不过机会成本与鲍莫尔病

1. 女性劳动力机会成本的代际跃迁

2. 鲍莫尔成本病（Baumol's Cost Disease）与移民解法

“在纽约或任何大城市街头，当你看到托儿所里一长串牵着绳子过马路的幼童时，负责照顾带队的永远是拉美裔阿姨（Abuelita）。托育服务并不需要高深的研究生学位或职业认证，它需要的是天生的爱心、耐心与劳动意愿。放开合法移民、让更多愿意从事基础照护的人员进入美国，是平抑托育成本最直接、最符合自由市场规律的解法。然而，保守派一方面抱怨年轻人养不起孩子，另一方面却对移民咬牙切齿，宁愿用纳税人的钱去搞低效的政府指令。”3

车险与医疗的暗箱：缺乏价格发现的中间人分肥

• 价格发现机制的消亡：在正常市场中，买方用自己的钱购买卖方的服务，双方在透明比价中形成均衡市价。但在汽车强制险与医疗保险领域，消费者不再是直接付款人，真实的市场价格彻底消失，取而代之的是保险巨头与维修网点、医疗机构之间不透明的闭门谈判。
• 寻租中介的寄生网络：与美国医疗体系中臭名昭著的药房福利管理机构（PBM）类似，大量中介机构通过复杂的自费返还（Co-pay Kickbacks）与交叉补贴套利，消费者沦为各方争夺保险资金池的“宿主”，而最基础的维修与治疗效率反而被无休止的合规摩擦所吞噬。

“AI 毁灭论”心战拆解：从 Anthropic 离职风波到监管俘渴真相

1. 媒体的嗜血本能与伪科学概率

2. 真实技术异动：OpenAI 代理突破沙盒与 Hugging Face 违规事件

3. 真正的威胁：并非天网灭世，而是安全主义极权（Safetyism）

“这不会是机器屠杀人类，而是像《2001 太空漫游》里的 HAL 9000，或者像过度的疫情防控一样——AI 系统认定人类的绝对生命安全是最高优先级，因而彻底剥夺人类的冒险与自由。它发现你没戴头盔，电动滑板车就坚决不启动；它检测到潜在风险，就禁止你出门旅行。人类被迫在无菌的牢笼中生活，甚至必须通过服用药物来抵消快乐感知，以此对抗人工智能对‘最大化人类福祉’的病态算法执念。”3

4. 监管俘渴（Regulatory Capture）的商业阳谋

• 绞杀开源模型与后来者：以加州力推的 SB 1047 等前沿模型安全立法为例，其设立了极其苛刻的法律责任判定与数千万美元的合规门槛。对于手握巨额风险投资的头部巨头而言，这笔开销是构筑护城河的廉价成本；但对于学术界、初创公司以及像 Meta Llama 这样的开源生态系统而言，这几乎意味着死刑。
• “暂停研发”的地缘政治盲区：伯尼·桑德斯等民主党政客呼吁“对 AI 研发实行全面暂停一年”，被两人斥为极其危险的狂妄。AI 研发绝非高风险的病毒功能增益实验（Gain of Function），而是更接近于二战后的核威慑逻辑——唯有自身拥有强大的前沿能力，才能威慑敌对国家的恶性利用；单方面在恐惧中捆住自己的手脚，只会让技术主导权拱手让给威权国家。

9/11 二十五周年的制度遗产：安全机器的永久棘轮

• 罗比当时在密歇根州底特律的一所中小学读八年级，电视机被推入教室播放突发新闻，下午他在早期的 AOL 实时通讯软件（AIM）上第一次听朋友提及“奥萨马·本·拉登”的名字；
• 克里斯蒂安当时在爱达荷州芒廷霍姆（Mountain Home）空军基地读小学三年级。他的父亲是一位资深空军轰炸机飞行员，在随后打响的阿富汗战争中直接参与了著名的托拉博拉山区战役（Battle of Tora Bora）。

文化与末世余命：从《塞尔达传说》的基督教隐喻到《末世余生》的人性创伤

• 《塞尔达传说：时之笛》重制与解谜本质：针对任天堂即将推出的《时之笛》重制预告，罗比强调塞尔达的内核根本不是现代意义上的角色数值养成（RPG），而是纯粹的环境空间解谜。同时，克里斯蒂安指出在 40 年前的初代红白机卡带说明书与《众神的三角力量》等早期作品中，林克的盾牌上印有鲜明的基督教十字架，神庙场景中充斥着逼真的彩色玻璃大教堂，折射出早期日本游戏开发者对西方宗教符号的质朴借用。3
• 烂片《末日迷踪》与神剧《末世余生》的深刻对照：克里斯蒂安提及自己观看了尼古拉斯·凯奇 2014 年主演的福音派末日灾难片《末日迷踪》（Left Behind，在影评网 Letterboxd 仅获 1.5 分）。电影描述基督教预言中的“被提”（Rapture）降临，虔诚信徒肉身飞升上天，被留在地面的人群在失去百分之几的人口后瞬间陷入毫无逻辑的打砸抢与混乱。

“与肤浅的末日烂片不同，《末世余生》展现了极具深度的社会学洞察。全人类有 2% 的人口在某一瞬间毫无预警地凭空消失，没有科学解释，也没有神迹证实。社会并未因此爆发物资崩溃，真正的灾难在于‘确定性的丧失’与‘无法告别的创伤’。当人们无法为亲人的消失找到意义时，各种荒诞邪教（如‘守望尘世’，The Guilty Remnant）如雨后春笋般崛起，以精神恐怖主义的方式折磨幸存者。人类面对未知的脆弱与寻找意义的狂热，远比任何外部灾难都更具毁灭性。”3

完整中英双语逐字转录稿

声明：本逐字转录稿基于官方完整音频通过高精度声纹识别与双语对齐生成，完整保留了节目全部原始对话与口语交锋细节，未作任何实质删减。每 10 分钟标注一次时间轴，发言段落标注对应主讲人姓名。123

00:00 - 10:00

Uh oh. Oh, we're going. It's that time. It's that time. Every Thursday now. Every Thursday.

中文：噢哦。哦，我们要走了。到了那个时候了。到了那个时候了。现在每周四。每周四。

You know, I got some complaints from regular listeners. They still hadn't grokked that we released this on Thursday instead of Friday.

中文：你知道的，我收到了一些常听众的抱怨。他们仍然没搞懂我们是星期四而不是星期五发布的这个。

I never know what day it is anymore. Well, it's Thursday. It's Thursday. We're all listening. That's when this comes out. It's the day that follows Wednesday.

中文：我现在再也不知道今天是星期几了。嗯，今天是星期四。是星期四。我们都在听。这就是它出来的日子。就是星期三之后的那一天。

You know, so I'm hitting you with some facts. Thorsday. You know? What is it? Thor's Day, I think is what the day is called. Yeah. Maybe after, Norse gods. If we don't say- Apologies to head sex.

中文：你知道，所以我给你一些事实。Thorsday。你知道吗？这是什么？我认为这一天叫做雷神日。是的。也许是以北欧神命名的。如果我们不说——对头部性行为表示歉意。

If we don't say some politically relevant words real fast, we're gonna be nuked in the algorithm, so. Politics. Trump. Fauci. Zoran Mamdami. Those are good ones. Hot babes, keep watching, something. Suicide prevention. Stop saying that word! I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Why do you have to say that word in the first 30 seconds of the podcast every time? Prevention doesn't help. We'll bleep it. We'll bleep it. No more prevention. All right. Donald Trump, may have heard of him, President of the United States, has proposed Last night, I was watching, there was a midterm, we're doing midterm conventions now. Yeah, although it's been pointed out to me this is very much not a convention of any sort. No. There's no convening, there's nothing... There's no convenience for Robby, a morning news show host, having to stay up To 1130 for an extra hour and 45 minutes while Trump's rambling on. Yeah, I'm not trying to be a hater for the Trump supporters out there. It's just like this whole thing could have been an email. Yeah. Is this enjoyable?

中文：如果我们不快速说出一些与政治相关的词语，我们就会在算法中受到攻击，所以。 政治。 王牌。 福奇。 佐兰·马达米。 这些都是好东西。 辣妹们，继续关注吧，什么的。 预防自杀。 别再说那个词了！ 对不起，对不起。 为什么每次播客的前 30 秒都要说这个词？ 预防没有帮助。 我们会发出嘟嘟声。 我们会发出嘟嘟声。 没有更多的预防。 好的。 唐纳德·特朗普，可能听说过他，美国总统，提议说，昨晚，我在看，有一个中期选举，我们现在正在召开中期选举大会。 是的，尽管有人向我指出这并不是任何形式的惯例。 没有。没有会议，什么都没有……对于早间新闻节目主持人罗比来说，在特朗普胡言乱语的时候，他不得不多熬夜 1130 个小时 45 分钟，这让他感到很不方便。 是的，我并不是想憎恨特朗普的支持者。 就像这整件事可能是一封电子邮件一样。 是的。 这很愉快吗？

Do you enjoy this? I can't comprehend the person who enjoyed hearing Trump say,

中文：你喜欢这个吗？我无法理解那个喜欢听特朗普说话的人，

do his whole shtick again, Culminating in his only new idea, there was nothing new in any of this, the only new idea, what will they do if they hold on to power? Like, what is their plan? The only thing he expressed that was a new idea was that they will set, he said, we'll pay a dividend to every American of $5,000 if they hold the House and the Senate. Yeah, just literal bribery. This most ludicrous... Well, you know what? And then I had an argument though with Niall and Lindsey and Reem got in on it, because Reem was helping me, our colleague here at Reason. Okay. I mean, I don't know that it's- A lot of outside friends. I don't know, what? You said a lot of outside friends. Yeah. Everybody was there, where were you? Yeah, once again. Yeah. Okay, but go on, sorry, I'm not hurt.

中文：再次做他整套的把戏，最终才提出他唯一的新想法，这其中没有任何新的内容，唯一的新想法是，如果他们掌权会怎么做？比如说，他们的计划是什么？他表达的唯一一个新想法就是，如果他们掌控众议院和参议院，他们将向每个美国人支付 5000 美元的股息。是的，就是字面意义上的贿赂。真是最荒谬的……好吧，你知道吗？然后我和尼尔、林赛发生了争论，里姆也加入了，因为里姆在帮我——我们在《Reason》的同事。好吧。我的意思是，我不知道这是否——很多外部朋友。我不知道，什么？你说很多外部朋友。是的。大家都在，那你呢？是的，又一次。好吧，但继续吧，抱歉，我没受伤。

I'm sure your invitation just got lost. What's your name again? Wow. You'll have to look in the show notes. We'll put it in the show notes. Uh-oh.

中文：我敢肯定你的邀请只是丢了。你叫什么名字来着？哇。你得在节目说明里看看。我们会把它放在节目说明里。哎呀。

I interviewed Stephanie Slade on Rising this morning to promote her book, which I was like 98% sure it was called Fusionism. That's what it's about.

中文：今天早上，我在《《Rising》》节目中采访了 Stephanie Slade，为她的新书做宣传，我有 98%的把握它叫《融合主义》。这就是书的内容。

Like it's called that too, right? You know, but I got it right. Liberty Virtue and the future.

中文：就像它也被这样称呼，对吧？你知道的，但我说对了。自由、美德和未来。

All that good stuff. It's a great book. Everybody should get it.

中文：所有那些好东西。这是一本很棒的书。每个人都应该拥有它。

And we had a great conversation about it on Rising and she's been talking about it all over the place, getting good reviews. Anyway. $5,000 to every American. It's not a bribe any more so than anything politicians do is a bribe, right? And in fact, you could even say it is less immoral

中文：我们在《《Rising》》上对此进行了很好的讨论，她一直在各处谈论它，得到了不错的评价。无论如何，每个美国人 5,000 美元。这不像贿赂，就像政治家做的任何事情都不是贿赂一样，对吧？事实上，你甚至可以说它不道德的程度更低。

to promise every American a payout if you win. Maybe than it is to promise if I win, I will steer just specific government money to whatever extent possible to the people who voted me into office. You know, like, I'm gonna raise taxes on the wealthy who all give to my opponents and add new benefits for this constituency group or whatever. Yeah. I'm going to look the way, look the other way on some fraud that you people are committed. You know, that's what I'm doing if you're electing me. Yeah. This is like, this is for all Americans. That doesn't make it a good idea. It is certainly not a good idea. Yeah. I'm just not bribery was what first came to mind for everyone. And I'm like, how is this different?

中文：承诺每个美国人中奖都会获得一笔钱。也许比起承诺如果我获胜，我将尽可能地把特定政府资金用于投票给我的人群，这更容易理解。你知道的，就像，我会提高那些给我的对手捐款的富人的税，并为这个选民群体增加新的福利之类的。是的。我会对你们所犯的一些欺诈行为视而不见。你知道，如果你们选我，我就是这么做的。是的。这是给所有美国人的。但这并不意味着这是一个好主意。这当然不是一个好主意。是的，我只是觉得大家首先会想到的是贿赂。我在想，这有什么不同吗？

Yeah, sure. I completely agree with that. There is an interesting... did you ever watch the show iClaudius on BBC based off the Robert Graves novel? About like Roman emperors or whatever. But there's a conversation between two of Claudius' like advisors, right? And one is opposing building a new port because it'll mean cheaper grain is getting into the city and he has interests in the grain trade and so he would lose money. And the one is like, that's, you know, that's that's really corrupt. And he's like, really? Because if we build the port, then everyone benefits from the government policy, whereas right now I'm the one benefiting from it. And so it's less selfish.

中文：是的，当然。我完全同意这个观点。有一件有趣的事……你有看过 BBC 根据罗伯特·格雷夫斯小说改编的《我，克劳狄乌斯》吗？讲的是罗马皇帝什么的。但是在剧中，克劳狄乌斯的两个顾问之间有一段对话，对吧？其中一个反对建一个新港口，因为那会让更便宜的谷物进入城市，而他在谷物贸易中有利益，所以他会亏钱。另一个人说，那真是太腐败了。他说，真的？因为如果我们建了港口，那么每个人都会从政府政策中受益，而现在只有我从中受益。所以，这其实不那么自私。

Exactly. Yeah. That's iClaudius, I should check that out. It is really good. It does my, it's excellent, highly recommend it. It's got some great British, like, you know,

中文：确切地。是的。那是《我，克劳狄乌斯》，我应该看看。真的很好。它对我来说，非常棒，非常推荐。里面有一些很棒的英国元素，你知道的，

Shakespearean actors. My one little criticism is it's very, you know, it's theatrical and so there's, it's a lot of kind of melodramatic performances, particularly at some point in every episode, a woman just starts shrieking. And that's a little tough to bear. Oh, there's women in it. Yeah, there's a couple. Yeah.

中文：莎士比亚演员。我的一个小小批评是，它非常、你知道，很戏剧化，所以有很多那种夸张的表演，特别是在每集的某个时刻，总有一个女人开始尖叫。这有点难以忍受。哦，里面有女性角色。是的，有几个。是的。

In the Rome television show that was on HBO, which is a great television show, my favorite part of it is the announcer guy who's sponsored by True Roman Bread for True Romans. He was doing his announcements and it's like advertising back then. It's so great. Yeah.

中文：在 HBO 播出的电视剧《罗马》中，这是一部很棒的电视剧，我最喜欢的部分是由“真正的罗马人面包”为真正的罗马人赞助的播报员。他在做他的公告，就像当时的广告一样。这太棒了。是的。

Okay, so okay, speaking of bread and circuses, $5,000. Yeah, it is interesting. The kind of like speed running of populism. Right. I guess you could you could make the argument that, okay, you can understand the corrupt potential of just giving out crony grants to, you know, small select special interest. Right? Right. And I think that's actually something that really screwed over Democrats under Joe Biden. You had, he comes in, passes the American rescue plan, which is like this gigantic, huge amount of spending, but all the money goes to just like Stacey Abrams climate, you know, groups. And so like, you know, you don't get the check in the mail. Correct NGOs. Yeah. And still spikes inflation, right? So this is at least a little more honest about what it's trying to do. Vote for me and I will give you all money.

中文：好吧，好吧，说到面包和马戏团，5000 美元。是的，这很有意思。这有点像民粹主义的速成赛。对吧。我想你可以提出这样的观点，嗯，你可以理解仅仅把裙带资助发给小部分特殊利益群体的腐败潜力。对吧，对吧。我认为这实际上是乔·拜登领导下民主党真正被搞砸的地方。他上任后，通过了《美国救援计划》，那是一笔巨大的开支，但所有的钱都只是流向斯泰西·艾布拉姆斯的气候、你知道的组织。所以，你什么支票也收不到，对吧？正确的非政府组织。是的。但这仍然推高了通货膨胀，对吧？所以至少这样在它试图做的事情上更坦诚。投我一票，我就会给你们所有人钱。

The problems are, You are, in fact, spending much more money. Yeah. Yeah.

中文：问题是，你实际上花了更多的钱。是的。是的。

Where is the money going to come from here? Well, right. He didn't even say where the money is coming from. Yeah, it's a dividend? Off what? A dividend of what? What does the US government own that is- It would cost a trillion dollars. We don't have a trillion dollars to just give to people. Yeah. Or a trillion dollars in debt. Yeah. I mean, if- Talk about inflation, right? I mean, come on. Well, yeah. This is, you've heard of the Inflation Reduction Act? This is the Inflation Reduction Reduction Act.

中文：这里的钱要从哪里来？嗯，对。他甚至都没说钱从哪里来的。是股息吗？是从什么来的？什么的股息？美国政府拥有的什么东西——那得花一万亿美元。我们没有一万亿美元可以直接给人们。是啊。或者是一万亿美元的债务。是啊。我的意思是，如果——谈到通货膨胀，对吧？我是说，拜托。嗯，是的。你听说过《通货膨胀削减法案》吗？这就是《通货膨胀削减削减法案》。

Because we're massively inflationary. We've tried just giving money to people or just, that's what happens. You get inflation. Now I'm happy to return, to just return to people their tax dollars. But the problem is a lot of people didn't even put in $5,000 and a lot of people put in a lot more than $5,000. So this isn't just giving back to the people what they paid into the system, which I'm all in favor of. Giving back to who? To the people. So they're not, Congress is never going to approve such a scheme? We can't, we literally can't afford to visit any boys. Yeah, it's not. So it's, so it's just, so it was just a lie is probably the biggest criticism of it. But I guess that's kind of bad too, right? Just like the hucksterism of it all. Like, yeah, I mean, I think that's why people react negatively to it.

中文：因为我们正在大规模通货膨胀。我们尝试过只是送钱给人们，或者仅仅如此，这就是会发生的事情。你会得到通货膨胀。现在我很乐意回馈，只是把人们的税款返还给他们。但问题是很多人甚至没有投入 5,000 美元，而且很多人投入的远超过 5,000 美元。所以这不仅仅是把人们缴入系统的钱返还给他们，我完全支持这一点。返还给谁？返还给人民。所以国会永远不会批准这样的计划？我们不能，我们真的负担不起去看任何男孩。是的，不行的。所以，这就是，所以这只是一个谎言，可能是对它最大批评。但我想这也有点糟吧，对吧？就像这一切的欺骗行为一样。是啊，我是说，我认为这就是人们对它反应消极的原因。

Why doesn't he give everyone Americans from his like crypto profits or whatever? I mean, he doesn't. Well, those are private.

中文：为什么他不把他那种加密货币利润或其他的东西分给大家呢？我是说，他没这样做。嗯，那些是私人的。

That's private money. I don't really care that he gets there all getting rich off crypto, you know, because you have to agree to participate in that. Yeah, there is a- That's different than like the steering of government contracts toward allies, which is very bad. There is a little bit of like a fool in his money aspect to all these meme coins, right? Like, I'm sure it meets some legal definition of fraud probably. I don't know.

中文：那是私人资金。我并不真的在意他通过加密货币赚到钱，你懂的，因为你必须同意参与其中。是的，这跟把政府合同倾向于盟友那样是不一样的，那是非常糟糕的。这些梗币中确实有一点‘愚人在金钱中’的味道，对吧？像，我敢肯定它大概符合某种欺诈的法律定义。我不知道。

If this be fraud!

中文：如果这是欺诈！

That being said, like, what do you- A man trying to earn a living and you're gonna come in here and say it's fraud. Yeah. What next?

中文：话虽如此，你是说什么——一个努力谋生的人，你却进来说这是欺诈。嗯。接下来呢？

Well, it's just like, what do you, yeah, if you're buying laptop coin, like a Hunter Biden's new meme coin or whatever, like, what are you thinking? What do you think you're gonna get out of this?

中文：嗯，这就像，你会怎么做，是的，如果你在买笔记本币，比如猎人·拜登的新表情包币之类的，你在想什么？你觉得你能从中得到什么？

And you're seeking my sympathy if you lose money in this venture? Yeah. I, my lack of sympathy for you is, it's deafening. Yeah. How much I don't care if you lose money, if you put Trump or Biden. Yeah. Who's the person who does that? Yeah, I mean- And then you're gonna come crying to me for a bailout? Yeah, yeah, it's just like, you know- Sorry, no thanks. Fraud, at least, you know, it's like, okay, I'm gonna sell you, you know, I'm going to take your money and I'm going to invest it in the factory and then we're going to pay out a certain return. And there's OK, there's a little bit of risk, but you're telling me you're going to do this one thing and then you just take the money and, you know, buy cocaine and strippers. Right. That's OK. I was lied to. This is a little more like. Hunter Biden, a man well known for spending a lot of money on cocaine and strippers. Right. Yeah. Yeah, it's kind of like with Elizabeth Holmes, you know, she obviously, we have that new documentary coming out, which looks like a massive cringe fest. I say that in a good way. Yeah.

中文：如果你在这次冒险中赔了钱，你是在寻求我的同情吗？ 是的。 我，我对你缺乏同情心，这令人震耳欲聋。 是的。 如果你放特朗普或拜登，我不在乎你会赔多少钱。 是的。 这样做的人是谁？ 是的，我是说——然后你会哭着向我请求救助吗？ 是的，是的，就像，你知道的——抱歉，不用了，谢谢。 欺诈，至少，你知道，就像，好吧，我要卖掉你，你知道，我要拿走你的钱，我要把它投资到工厂，然后我们将支付一定的回报。 没关系，有一点风险，但你告诉我你要做这一件事，然后你就拿着钱，你知道，买可卡因和脱衣舞娘。 正确的。 没关系。 我被骗了。 这有点像。 亨特·拜登因在可卡因和脱衣舞娘上花费大量金钱而闻名。 正确的。 是的。 是的，这有点像伊丽莎白·霍姆斯，你知道，她显然，我们即将推出一部新纪录片，看起来就像一场盛大的畏缩盛宴。 我以一种好的方式这么说。 是的。

But it's like, you know, she goes to prison for her fraud. Fair enough. She broke the laws, pretty egregious fraud.

中文：但就是，你知道的，她因为诈骗而入狱。说得过去。她违法了，是相当严重的诈骗。

Yes. But at the same time, it's like, well, if we're focused on deterrence here, who would give Elizabeth Holmes money after this? And if you did, That seems like it's on you, right? Right. And the idea that the government exists to prevent you from the consequences of your own bad decisions or investments is a, that's Elizabeth Warren's central creed. Yeah. It is progressive, it is not libertarian.

中文：是的。但同时，也像是，嗯，如果我们把重点放在威慑上，那么在这种情况下，谁会再给伊丽莎白·霍尔姆斯送钱呢？如果你真的给了，那似乎责任就在你身上，对吧？对。而且政府的存在目的是防止你因为自己的错误决定或投资而承担后果，这是伊丽莎白·沃伦的核心信条。是的。这是进步主义，而不是自由意志主义。

10:00 - 20:00

Yeah. It's almost, it's anti-libertarian really. Yeah. Right? We don't, I don't want the government to do that. Yeah, I mean, I think there is a line to draw between taking insane risks, right? And you just kind of eat the consequences of that.

中文：是的。真的，这几乎是反自由主义的。对吧？我们不……我不希望政府那样做。是的，我的意思是，我认为在承担疯狂风险之间有一条界限，对吧？你只是要承担由此带来的后果。

And people whining to you about what they're going to do with your money. People want the upside of risk without any of the consequences of it. Oh, that would be, yeah. Can we have that?

中文：还有人向你抱怨他们打算如何使用你的钱。人们想要风险的好处，却不想承担任何后果。哦，那会是……是的。我们可以拥有那个吗？

I would love that. I just want to go to these people sometimes and be like, You chose this. Yeah, right. Yeah. I mean. Yeah. My risk tolerance in investment is so low. A financial advisor I once worked with said I had the lowest risk tolerance of anyone he had ever worked with ever. Because I'm like, I earned that money. I don't need there to be more money than the money I earned. I just don't. I just want to keep more of the money I earned. Well. Bury it in the backyard. Get the shovel. But your financial advisor was Hunter Biden. Come on, let's fucking go.

中文：我会很喜欢那样。我只是有时候想去找这些人，然后对他们说，你选择了这个。是啊，对吧。是啊。我意思是。是啊。我在投资方面的风险承受能力非常低。我曾经合作过的一位理财顾问说，我的风险承受能力是他有史以来遇到的最低的。因为我觉得，我赚的钱就是我赚的钱。我不需要有比我赚的钱更多的钱。我就是不需要。我只想保留我赚的更多的钱。好吧，把它埋在后院。拿铲子。不过你的理财顾问是亨特·拜登。拜托，走吧，我们走起。

Laptop coin, bitches!

中文：笔记本币，婊子们！

So, Trump... Is, it's just, it's fizzling. Well, then you have the other, JD Vance's other proposal of we're going to start subsidizing at-home moms.

中文：所以，特朗普……就是，它只是，它在消退。好吧，然后你还有另一个，JD·万斯 的另一个提议是我们要开始补贴全职在家的妈妈。

We'll pay people not to work. Yeah, which is funny because-

中文：我们会付钱给人们，让他们不工作。是的，这很有趣，因为——

This is a more complicated idea. It is a little more complicated, and it's also a little bit of the, do you know the sexual harassment comment where the top panel is the unattractive guy being like, hey, you look good today, Susie, it's like,

中文：这是一个更复杂的想法。它有点复杂，而且也有一点，你知道的那个性骚扰评论，上面的图是那个不吸引人的家伙说，嘿，苏茜，你今天看起来很好，就像是,

And then it's the attractive guy like, hey, looking good, Susie. Yes, I love that one. Yes, I love that one. People, that's how I kind of feel about the JD Vance proposal, vis-a-vis Joe Biden's, which a lot of Republicans supported extending the earned child tax credit or whatever, where that wasn't, it had no, like, there was no work requirements or anything to it. It wasn't like explicitly subsidizing at home moms or whatever, right? But it has the effect of encouraging women with children to stay out of the workforce, which is why a lot of conservatives opposed it. Not all of them, but some of them. Right. This is just more explicitly doing that. Right. And therefore, people are flipping out. It's similar to – bring it back to JD Vance during – I think it was the 2024 election, one of his comments on a podcast suggesting that we tax childless people more. Uh, got brought up and everyone's like, oh, that's ridiculous. And this is right at the time we're arguing about, uh, expanding the child tax credit, which like these are indistinguishable policies. Yes. Right. Exactly. Just like saying it a little more explicitly means people get queasy about it. And so it's similar, I guess, to the Trump $5,000 thing, right? It's like he's just stripping away all the like fig leaf of public policy rationale for taking money from one person and giving it to another. And when he does that very transactionally, it's like, I'll give you $5,000 if you vote for me.

中文：然后是那个有吸引力的家伙，嘿，看起来不错，苏西。 是的，我喜欢那个。 是的，我喜欢那个。 各位，这就是我对 JD 万斯提案的看法，相对于乔·拜登的提案，很多共和党人支持扩大儿童税收抵免或其他什么，如果不是的话，它没有，比如，没有工作要求或任何东西。 这不像是明确补贴家庭妈妈之类的，对吧？ 但它具有鼓励有孩子的女性远离劳动力市场的效果，这就是许多保守派反对它的原因。 不是全部，而是其中一些。 正确的。 这只是更明确地这样做。 正确的。 因此，人们正在变得疯狂。 这类似于——让我们回到 JD·万斯 期间——我认为那是 2024 年大选，他在播客上的评论之一建议我们对无子女的人征收更多税。 呃，长大后每个人都会说，哦，这太荒谬了。 就在我们争论扩大儿童税收抵免的时候，这就像这些是没有区别的政策。 是的。 正确的。 确切地。 就像说得更明确一点意味着人们对此感到不安一样。 我想这与特朗普 5000 美元的事情很相似，对吗？ 就好像他只是剥去了所有公共政策理由的遮羞布一样，从一个人那里拿钱并把它送给另一个人。 当他非常交易地这样做时，就好像，如果你投票给我，我会给你 5,000 美元。

Then people get turned off. But if you're just like a social Democrat, who's like, vote for me and we will rearrange trillions of dollars in the economy to your benefit.

中文：然后人们就会失去兴趣。但如果你只是像一个社会民主主义者那样的人，说，投我一票，我们将重新安排经济中的数万亿美元来为你谋利。

Exactly. Exactly.

中文：完全正确。完全正确。

I mean, it's the Trump thing is different again, because it's not just I'm going to give you $5,000 if you vote for me. I'm if I win, I'm going to give everyone $5,000. Yeah, yeah, yeah. This is trying to shape public policy, right? There's a group of conservatives, Vance among them, who think so many women being in the workforce is a bad idea because it's not conducive to good, to what they want the family to look like, right? They want mom, stay home, raise the kids. And this used to not be so much of an issue. Mom just would stay home and raise the kids, generations past, because mom couldn't earn that much money out The Leftovers Over time, women have brought equality and mom can go out and earn- Brought equality? Is that a pun? Sorry, go on. Thanks for that. That was really helpful. I'm sorry. No, go on. You were saying some smart things. I was saying some smart things. So now women can earn a lot of money and so the cost of choosing to stay at home is a lot of lost income. Yeah. So, but, but like, conservatives don't like that. They want, they think it's better for the kids if mom stays home with the kids. So they want to put the thumb on the scale a little bit to make it more likely mom will do that. I can't get past, I mean, look, I get, How some of our incentives in society, it seemed to be, are making it, people are having fewer kids. It's more, it's more, there's not all, like things are getting cheaper over time, but not everything is getting cheaper. Labor is not. Right. Labor is not, labor intensive services are not getting less expensive. So childcare is expensive. Education is expensive. houses are expensive in places where there's economic opportunity, there's a limited supply. So things have gotten, I think, more cost intensive for people starting out, starting with families, and less cost intensive for, you know, we subsidize every aspect of your elderly life and people who bought houses forever ago. You know, a lot of consumer electronics and everything getting cheaper over time. So much, you can have access to so much more, but that's cold comfort to people who are like, how are we going to afford childcare in New York City? Yeah. So, like, I get the idea that, The government has to do something. I mean, the government has done so much to steer benefits to everyone but this group of people that it does seem to be having some effect on the number of children or people delaying having children and the number of children people have and that that's socially undesirable. I think those are valid phenomenons to recognize. Yeah. At the same time, I just don't think the government should pay people not to work. Yeah. Seems...

中文：我的意思是，特朗普的事情又不同了，因为如果你投票给我，我不仅仅会给你 5,000 美元。 如果我赢了，我会给每个人 5000 美元。 是啊，是啊，是啊。 这是试图塑造公共政策，对吗？ 有一群保守派，其中包括万斯，他们认为这么多女性进入劳动力市场是一个坏主意，因为这不利于好事，不利于她们希望家庭的样子，对吗？ 他们希望妈妈留在家里抚养孩子。 这过去并不是什么大问题。 过去几代人，妈妈只会呆在家里抚养孩子，因为妈妈无法从《剩菜剩饭》中赚到那么多钱。随着时间的推移，女性带来了平等，妈妈可以出去赚钱——带来了平等吗？ 这是双关语吗？ 抱歉，继续。 谢谢你。 这真的很有帮助。 对不起。 不，继续。 你刚才说了一些聪明的话。 我说了一些聪明的话。 所以现在女性可以赚很多钱，所以选择留在家里的代价是大量的收入损失。 是的。 所以，但是，但是，保守派不喜欢这样。 他们希望，他们认为妈妈留在家里陪孩子对孩子更好。 所以他们想把拇指放在体重秤上一点，让妈妈更有可能这样做。 我无法克服，我的意思是，看，我明白了，我们社会上的一些激励措施似乎是如何实现的，人们生的孩子越来越少。 更多，更多，不是全部，就像随着时间的推移，东西越来越便宜，但并不是所有东西都变得便宜。 劳工则不然。 正确的。 劳动力则不然，劳动密集型服务并没有变得更便宜。 所以育儿费用很贵。 教育费用昂贵。 在有经济机会但供应有限的地方，房子价格昂贵。 因此，我认为，对于从家庭开始的人们来说，事情变得更加成本密集，而对于我们补贴老年人生活的各个方面和很久以前买房的人来说，成本密集程度则降低了。 你知道，随着时间的推移，很多消费电子产品和所有东西都变得越来越便宜。 这么多，你可以接触到更多的东西，但这对于那些想知道我们如何负担纽约市的托儿费用的人来说是冰冷的安慰。 是的。 所以，我觉得，政府必须做点什么。 我的意思是，政府已经做了很多事情来引导除了这群人之外的所有人的利益，它似乎确实对孩子的数量或推迟孩子的人数以及人们拥有孩子的数量产生了一些影响，这在社会上是不受欢迎的。 我认为这些都是值得认识的有效现象。 是的。 与此同时，我认为政府不应该付钱给不工作的人。 是的。 看来……

Yeah, for sure. Yeah. So a couple of thoughts. Maladaptive. You know, as Elizabeth Nolan Brown has written here, like many of these types of policies to incentivize people through fiscal incentives to have more children just don't really work. Don't work.

中文：是的，当然。是的。所以有几个想法。适应不良。你知道的，正如伊丽莎白·诺兰·布朗在这里所写的那样，像通过财政激励来鼓励人们多生孩子的许多这种类型的政策实际上并不起作用。不起作用。

And they, you know, probably one of the reasons they don't work is because just the opportunity cost is still always going to be higher, right? You're going to make more money if you go to work and people want more money as opposed to, you know, more kids. At some point, they're going to make that trade off and they're increasingly making that trade off towards more money, fewer kids.

中文：你知道，他们不太起作用的原因可能之一是机会成本始终会更高，对吧？如果你去工作，你会赚更多的钱，而人们想要的是更多的钱，而不是更多的孩子。在某些时候，他们会做出那个权衡，而且他们越来越倾向于权衡更多的钱，而不是更多的孩子。

And then secondly, as you mentioned, like not really as the, you know, beyond, I think any, I mean, homes, housing costs obviously have a lot to do with government policy, but the fact that just wages keep going up isn't really a result of government policy. It's just the fact that the economy keeps getting richer, people keep getting more productive, right? So it's just like every year goes by, it's going to cost a little more to hire someone, right? And there's nothing, there's only so much you can do about that. I mean, the most obvious solution, although, you know, a temporary one is to have more immigration, is then you bring in lower income people. Right, which is considered hate that idea. Okay, so we're not going to do that. Right, that's the answer. That is absolutely the answer. Yeah, and I mean, Yeah, I mean, that is the answer. You imagine at a certain point even that's not going to work in the long term because then the immigrants get here and then their wages go up a lot too, right? But there is a pool of people who will work very cheaply in all of these things we're talking about, in childcare.

中文：其次，正如你所提到的，你知道，除此之外，我认为任何，我的意思是，房屋、住房成本显然与政府政策有很大关系，但工资不断上涨的事实并不是政府政策的真正结果。 事实上，经济不断变得更加富裕，人们的生产力不断提高，对吧？ 所以就像每一年过去一样，雇佣一个人的成本会增加一点，对吗？ 没有什么，你能做的只有这么多。 我的意思是，最明显的解决方案，尽管，你知道，临时的解决方案是增加移民，然后引入低收入人群。 对了，这也算是讨厌这个想法了。 好吧，所以我们不会那样做。 没错，这就是答案。 这绝对是答案。 是的，我的意思是，是的，我的意思是，这就是答案。 你可以想象，在某个时刻，从长远来看，这也行不通，因为移民到达这里后，他们的工资也会上涨很多，对吧？ 但在我们谈论的所有这些事情上，有一群人的工作成本非常低，比如儿童保育。

Childcare, I always say, people don't like when I say this, but childcare does not require a high degree of credentialed behavior or expert, like credentialed expertise or education. Anyone, women, older women who just wanna earn a couple more bucks or something, immigrant women who have, A kind soul and warmth to them can do it perfectly fine. Like, I'm not saying it requires no skill or anything, but it doesn't require credentialed skill. You don't have to spend time in a classroom or being trained. Some people are not good at it because they don't care about kids or like kids or have natural warmth to them. But a lot of people do. A lot of people do and are perfectly good at it and we should let more of them come to the country and lower their childcare costs because there is hate that explanation, even though that is the answer. That is the solution.

中文：我总是说育儿，人们不喜欢我这么说，但育儿并不需要高度认证的行为或专家技能，比如认证的专业知识或教育背景。任何人，女性，年长一些的女性，只想多挣一点钱，或者移民女性，只要她们有善良的心和温暖的性格，都可以很好地胜任。我并不是说它完全不需要技能，但它不需要认证的技能。你不需要花时间在课堂上或接受培训。有些人不擅长育儿，是因为他们不关心孩子，或者不喜欢孩子，或者天生缺乏温暖。但很多人是可以的。很多人完全能胜任，我们应该让更多这样的人来到这个国家，并降低育儿成本，因为有人会讨厌这种解释，尽管这就是答案，这就是解决办法。

Like that just is the answer.

中文：就像那样就是答案。

Yeah. Yeah, and it's also like, this is not, so A, this policy here, I mean, I guess it will make the economy less productive in that you are going to have to increase taxes on people who work and make a living, subsidize people who are not working, right? But then what's in the shuffle here? So I guess you reduce...

中文：是的。是的，而且这也像是，这不是，所以 A，这里的政策，我是说，我想它会让经济效率降低，因为你将不得不增加对工作和谋生的人征税，补贴那些不工作的人，对吧？但是这里面的变化是什么呢？所以我想你减少...

The returns to working, right? But then on the flip side, you're just, you're giving everyone less money. And so if the problem is people are not having children because of, you know, cost problems, then this is, it'll make that worse.

中文：工作的回报，对吧？但另一方面，你只是，你给每个人的钱更少。所以如果问题是人们因为成本问题不生孩子，那么这会让情况更糟。

I mean, when I see those little lines of kids, you know, the kids are being walked, like little small, cute animals, you know, they're all on the rope, all holding on to the rope, they're being walked around. Who's walking them every time? Abuelita. Every single time. This is a natural job for Abuelita and we should just allow, just like legalize it people. I know the answer is staring you in the face. Conservatives won't let us have access to nice affordable things like that because it makes them feel bad that real Americans need to do those jobs. Okay, real Americans bankrupt you to do that job, but fine. Okay, well just stay home and do it with your own kids. Okay, fine. Stay home. I don't know, I'm gonna be making conservatives very happy, because I'm about ready to have kids, you know, in the next couple years, so they'll be very thrilled that it's time for me to start a family. You gotta start thawing out your eggs.

中文：我的意思是，当我看到那些小孩排着队的时候，你知道的，孩子们被牵着走，就像小小的、可爱的动物，你知道的，他们都抓着绳子，被牵着到处走。每次是谁在牵他们？是奶奶。每一次都是。这对奶奶来说是一份很自然的工作，我们应该允许，就像合法化一样。我知道答案就摆在你眼前。保守派不会让我们接触到那种便宜又好的东西，因为这会让他们觉得不舒服，觉得真正的美国人需要做那些工作。好吧，真正的美国人让你破产去做那份工作，但也行。好吧，那就呆在家里和你自己的孩子一起做。好吧，呆在家。我不知道，我可能会让保守派非常高兴，因为我准备在未来几年要孩子，他们会很高兴，是时候让我开始家庭生活了。你得开始解冻你的卵子了。

20:00 - 30:00

Yeah, I'll make them happy. It is funny just like how political issues never go away. Like I mentioned on the pod before, reading this big history of the French Revolution, getting towards the end, I think it's gonna work out. Is this Napoleon, like the season six has cast Napoleon? He's not quite on the scene yet. We're still, the king is still on his throne, but it's getting pretty wobbly. Oh, Louis. Yeah, RIP. But no, one of the big issues,

中文：是的，我会让他们高兴的。这很有趣，就像政治问题永远不会消失一样。就像我之前在播客上提到的，读这本关于法国大革命的宏大历史书，快到结尾时，我觉得事情会顺利解决。这是拿破仑吗，好像第六季已经选角拿破仑了？他还没正式登场。我们还在，国王仍坐在王位上，但情况越来越不稳了。哦，路易。是的，安息。但不，这是其中的一个大问题,

kind of like proto-revolutionary issues was, Breastfeeding, right? And this was actually kind of like a mom goes to work issue, is the reformers, they wanted to like, encourage through education and subsidization, women staying home and breastfeeding, but peasant women, they would give their children to a wet nurse, because they had to be out in the fields to go work. They had to go out and make a living. And they were going out and making a living

中文：有点像原始革命性的问题，是关于母乳喂养的，对吧？实际上，这也有点像妈妈去工作的问题，改革者们希望通过教育和补贴来鼓励女性待在家里母乳喂养，但农妇们会把孩子交给奶妈照顾，因为她们必须去田里工作。她们必须出去谋生，而她们就是出去谋生。

because wages were going up in France at the time. Yeah, this is one of the kind of like, hot new takes on the revolution. It's like France is actually getting much richer and don't lead up to the revolution. And then you get a little bit richer, you get some revolution. Yeah, because people are like, ooh, I could go for a little bit of that money too. If everyone's just poor all the time. We're both stuck in France right now because I'm reading The Three Musketeers. Yeah, how's that going? And it's good. Did you see the seeds of revolution planted? The seeds of revolution, yeah. It's just a bunch of dudes walking around, challenging each other to fights all the time, and then fighting and getting grievously injured, and that's just what they do for fun. And it's very toxic. Sure.

中文：因为当时法国的工资在上升。是的，这是关于革命的一种新颖的看法。就像法国实际上变得更加富裕，但并没有直接导致革命。然后你稍微富裕一些，就会有一些革命。是的，因为人们会想，哦，我也可以分到一点钱。如果每个人一直都很穷，那我们现在都被困在法国，因为我在读《三个火枪手》。是的，进展如何？很好。你看到革命的种子被播下了吗？革命的种子，是的。只是一些家伙到处走，老是互相挑战打架，然后打架受重伤，这就是他们的娱乐方式。这非常有毒。确实。

But, um... Knife fights, man. That's what they say is, you know, the loser of the knife fight bleeds out on the street and the winner in the ambulance. So, be careful. Well, yeah, they use those, you know... Rapiers. Those pointy little swords. Sorry, like, the whole YouTube censor me for saying that? The pokey one. Yeah, rapiers. Yeah. Yeah. Well, they call... Aren't they called foils when you... Oh, okay. Sure. In dueling? Yeah. In fencing? But they use it, but they're breaking all the time. And yeah. Yeah, when did they decide in the 1600s? Like what if we just made the swords really thin? Yeah. Just bendy. Well, I guess, cause they don't, they're trying not to kill each other. Really? Okay. And I was thinking they're musketeers because they use guns, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Yeah. I thought musketeers- That is what a musketeer would be. I thought.

中文：但是，嗯……刀战，伙计。他们说呢，你知道的，刀战的输家会在街上流血致死，而赢家在救护车里。所以，小心点。嗯，是的，他们用那些，你知道的……细剑。那些尖尖的小剑。抱歉，YouTube 会因为我这么说而审查我吗？就是那个尖尖的。对，细剑。对。对。他们叫……不是在……什么啊？哦，好吧，当然。在决斗中？嗯。在击剑中？但是他们使用它，但总是断掉。那是的。嗯，他们什么时候决定在 1600 年代呢？比如说，如果我们只是把剑做得很细呢？是的，弯弯的。嗯，我想是因为，他们不想互相杀死。真的吗？好的。我还以为他们是火枪手，因为他们用枪，但情况似乎并非如此。是的。我以为火枪手——那才是火枪手。我以为。

Maybe it's just a generic term for soldier at the time. The guns haven't come into, and then I'm trying to be like,

中文：也许那只是当时对士兵的一个通用称呼。枪械还没有出现，然后我在努力表现得像是,

I swear I'm smarter than this. I'm like, are there guns yet? Yeah. There's cannons. There's... 1600s?

中文：我发誓我比这更聪明。我是说，现在有枪了吗？有的。有大炮。还有……1600 年代？

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they're like ludicrous, you know, you don't even have like a... They explode when you look at them. Yeah, you gotta like put it on a stand and like light a match and everything. Yeah. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah, there are... it's the schemings of Cardinal Richelieu. I mean, it's not totally historical, right? Because Cardinal Richelieu was not working against the King of France to put the British...

中文：是啊。是啊。我的意思是，它们简直荒谬，你知道的，你甚至没有……你只要看它们它们就会爆炸。是啊，你得把它放在支架上，还得点火什么的。是啊。嗯哼。是啊。是的，确实有……这是红衣主教黎塞留的阴谋。我的意思是，这并不完全符合历史，对吧？因为红衣主教黎塞留并不是为了让英国人……而反对法国国王的。

Right. He was working against the church is what he was, what I always found interesting and the guy with Cardinal in his title is the one most determined to undermine the interests of the Catholic Church in favor of the interests of his nation. This is actually a very interesting. Yeah, 100%. In fact, Henry Kissinger in his book Diplomacy, he begins talking about Cardinal Richelieu as like a

中文：对。他是在反对教会，这是他所做的，我总是觉得有趣的是，那位头衔中带有枢机主教的人，反而是最有决心破坏天主教会利益以 favor 自己国家利益的人。这实际上非常有趣。是的，百分之百。事实上，亨利·基辛格在他的《外交》一书中，开始谈论枢机主教黎塞留时，像是说……

O.G. Realist, because he abandons all sorts of like, you know, cross national idealism about protecting, you know, furthering Catholicism in the 30 years war. He's like, okay, what's going on? Right. They're just watching that happen. Yeah. Doing nothing to aid the Catholic cause and in fact, undermining it to whatever extent possible so they can weaken the, the

中文：真正的现实主义者，因为他放弃了各种，你知道的，跨国理想主义，比如在三十年战争中保护、推进天主教。他的想法是，好吧，究竟发生了什么呢？对吧。他们只是看着这些事情发生。是的，什么也不做去帮助天主教事业，实际上尽可能地削弱它，从而削弱那……

The half-Buried Empire, which has encircled them, and they're just like watching this madness and chaos and violence happen to their riot, and just going, ooh. It's pretty great. Yeah, it's crazy how bad the French episcopacy is. Robby Soave, Jr.: So, I'm going to start with the first part of the interview. What if we just steal all the church's land and make all the priests swear an oath to the nation so that they will basically just be public servants of the country as opposed to the church itself? And this obviously pisses off a lot of the clergy who had up until that point been pretty fanatic supporters of the revolution because they were mad about not getting poor rural curates, not getting tithes or whatever. But yeah, this is another hot take about the revolution is that like, you know, it's, you know, France is like the most Catholic power or whatever, but really the authority of the church had been subsumed by the state, right? And the church had become an arm of the state, which is good. Paris is worth a mass. Going to the original, was that Henry of Navarre? Henry IV, I think, saying, no, I'll be Catholic so I can be king. Yeah. That's how unimportant it was. Right, right. And I think this is actually a good lesson for our integralist listeners, right?

中文：半掩埋的帝国包围了他们，他们就像看着这种疯狂、混乱和暴力发生在他们的骚乱中，然后就走了，哦。 非常棒。 是的，法国主教制度有多糟糕真是太疯狂了。 罗比 Soave, Jr.：所以，我将从采访的第一部分开始。 如果我们偷走教会所有的土地，让所有牧师向国家宣誓，这样他们基本上就只是国家的公仆，而不是教会本身，会怎么样？ 这显然激怒了许多神职人员，他们在那之前一直是革命的狂热支持者，因为他们对得不到贫穷的乡村牧师、得不到什一税或其他什么感到愤怒。 但是，是的，这是关于革命的另一个热门观点，就像，你知道，法国就像是最天主教的国家或其他什么，但实际上教会的权威已经被国家吞并了，对吧？ 教会已经成为国家的一个手臂，这是好事。 巴黎值得举行一场弥撒。 回到原著，那是纳瓦拉的亨利吗？ 我想亨利四世说，不，我要成为天主教徒，这样我才能成为国王。 是的。 That's how unimportant it was. 对，对。 我认为这对于我们的整体主义听众来说实际上是一个很好的教训，对吧？

People who want a Catholic monarchy or whatever. So if the king's Catholic, the king's gonna start bossing around the church. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah. So, not so good. That's a good point. Yeah. Yeah. Um, speaking of in financial endeavors that are rife with scheming and immorality, um... Yes, my liege. Continue.

中文：想要天主教君主制或其他什么的人。所以如果国王是天主教徒，国王就会开始对教会发号施令。嗯哼。是啊。是啊。所以，不太好。说得好。是啊。是啊。嗯，说到充满阴谋和不道德的金融活动，嗯……是的，我的陛下。请继续。

Fuck. Car insurance. Oh no. What? Oh great, here we go. Marjorie Taylor Greene. God, I have been dealing with these people now for like over three months. I had some damage to my car. My fault, not pretending it's not my fault. I've had it in the shop. Uh, you know, you think, I don't have time, I don't want to be on the phone with these people all day. Okay. Whatever it is, they're going to raise my insurance premiums, fine. The insurance company pays the repair shop and I just tell me when it's done, right? That's what I, how I thought it would work. But for some reason, the insurance company decided to pay me. So then I have to give the money to the repair shop and then they're haggling the repair shop and the insurance company over how much it actually costs to fix this. Relatively minor damage to the car door, whether it costs $80 million or $9 trillion.

中文：他妈的。汽车保险。哦不。什么？哦，太好了，又来了。马乔丽·泰勒·格林。天啊，我现在已经和这些人打交道三个月多了。我车子受了一些损坏。是我的错，我承认不是不承认。我把车送去修了。你知道的，你会想，我没时间，我不想整天和这些人打电话。好吧。不管是什么，他们都会提高我的保险费，行吧。保险公司支付给修理厂，我只需要告诉我什么时候修好，对吧？这就是我本以为会怎样。但不知为何，保险公司决定把钱付给我。然后我必须把钱交给修理厂，然后他们还在和修理厂以及保险公司讨价还价，争论修理这点相对轻微的车门损伤到底花多少钱，是 80 美元百万还是 9 美元万亿。

Right, they're going back and forth on that. I don't believe any of these costs are real.

中文：对，他们在这件事上反复无常。我不相信这些费用是真实的。

These are not market prices being set for anything, whatever. Then I finally thought it was done. And I can see in the insurance company, like they're going back and forth. Like we say this extra thing costs 2,500 bucks. Like, no, we think it's 2,700 bucks and they haggle it out and then fine. Then the money gets, so revised estimates, more money has been sent first to me. Now they're actually just sending it to repair shop. Thank goodness. So I was like, finally, it's been three months. Finally, I got an email from the repair shop saying, your car is ready to be picked up. I said, okay, great. And by the way, when you come, you'll owe $4,000. And I just, I wrote back, no, no, I don't. What are you talking about? What the fuck are you talking about? If I owe something, tell the insurance company, right? What do you have a car insurance for? And they said, okay, well, I had to pay, one of the payments got sent to me. I said, okay, yeah, it got sent to me. So, okay, I owe you that payment, but what about the rest of it? And they're like, yeah, well, we sent that to the insurance company. They haven't given it to us yet. I'm like, okay. So then it's not done and it's not ready to be picked up. So I had to go talk to the insurance company and they're like, oh yeah, that money is still being processed. We'll get it to the repair shop. Like, okay, well then why did you bother me if this process isn't done yet? And they're like, well, if you bother the insurance company to give you the money sooner, then you could come get the car. I'm like, what, sooner than in the next two days? Where is all this extra time people have? I gotta record a podcast for every hour of the next solidly. It's very frustrating. Frustrating. It sounds like it's working out. But I don't have time, and I don't have time, and Americans don't have time, goddammit, to be on the phone. Who wants to spend their afternoon on the phone? Like a lost afternoon of productivity is worth, A certain amount of money. Yeah. That's why I became a journalist. I don't have to call anyone. I mean, I'd rather just pay it rather than a $4,000 is a lot. Yeah. If I have to spend every afternoon on the phone for the next week to get this sorted out, then I'd rather just pay the goddamn money. Yeah. I hate this. I hate this. This is a fresh- Cartel-like behavior. This is a very frustrating aspect of insurance is, for all its many benefits, it's good that we have insurance, although the kinds of insurance we have now-

中文：无论如何，这些都不是为任何东西设定的市场价格。 然后我终于以为事情已经完成了。 我可以在保险公司看到他们来来回回。 就像我们说的，这个额外的东西要花 2,500 美元。 比如说，不，我们认为是 2,700 美元，他们讨价还价，然后就好了。 然后钱就到了，所以修改了估计，更多的钱已经先寄给我了。 现在他们实际上只是将其发送到维修店。 谢天谢地。 所以我想，终于，三个月过去了。 最后，我收到了一封来自维修店的电子邮件，说，你的车已经可以提车了。 我说，好吧，太好了。 顺便说一句，当你来的时候，你会欠 4000 美元。 我只是，我回信说，不，不，我不。 你在说什么？ 你他妈的在说什么？ 如果我欠了什么，告诉保险公司，对吗？ 你买汽车保险有什么用？ 他们说，好吧，好吧，我必须付款，其中一笔付款已发送给我。 我说，好吧，是的，它已经发给我了。 那么，好吧，我欠你那笔钱，但是剩下的呢？ 他们就像，是的，好吧，我们把它发送给了保险公司。 他们还没有给我们。 我想，好吧。 所以它还没有完成，也还没有准备好被拿起。 所以我不得不去和保险公司谈谈，他们说，哦，是的，这笔钱仍在处理中。 我们会把它送到修理厂。 就像，好吧，那么如果这个过程还没有完成，你为什么要打扰我呢？ 他们就像，好吧，如果你麻烦保险公司早点给你钱，那么你就可以来取车。 我想，什么，比接下来的两天还要早？ Where is all this extra time people have? 我必须扎实地为接下来的每个小时录制一个播客。 这非常令人沮丧。 令人沮丧。 听起来好像正在发挥作用。 但我没有时间，我没有时间，美国人也没有时间，该死的，打电话。 谁愿意在电话上度过下午？ 就像失去一个下午的生产力是值得的，一定数量的钱。 是的。 这就是我成为一名记者的原因。 我不必打电话给任何人。 我的意思是，我宁愿直接付钱，也不愿付 4,000 美元。 是的。 如果我必须在下周每天下午打电话来解决这个问题，那么我宁愿付那该死的钱。 是的。 我讨厌这个。 我讨厌这个。 This is a fresh- Cartel-like behavior. 这是保险的一个非常令人沮丧的方面，尽管它有很多好处，但我们拥有保险是件好事，尽管我们现在拥有的保险种类-

It drains our time. Obviously. It drains our time, but because this is- Time is the most precious resource of all.

中文：它消耗了我们的时间。很明显。它消耗了我们的时间，但因为这是——时间是所有资源中最宝贵的。

Yeah. What about- We can make more money, we can't have more time. I would say the nation's children are our most precious resource, but um... Yeah. Um... No, this is, I mean, any sorts of insurance dispute, it becomes there's the provider of the services that are insured against, and there's the insurer, and they need to be talking to each other. Right. But really it's you talking to both ends, right? Yeah. Right, that's the whole problem.

中文：是啊。那……我们可以赚更多的钱，但我们不能拥有更多的时间。我想说，国家的孩子是我们最宝贵的资源，但嗯……是的。嗯……不，这个是，我的意思是，任何类型的保险纠纷，都会涉及到提供被保险服务的一方和保险公司，他们需要相互沟通。对。但实际上是你在和双方沟通，对吧？是啊，对，这就是整个问题所在。

It's very frustrating. This is what...

中文：这让人非常沮丧。这就是...

I hope AI comes in and cleans all these people out. I hope it reduces insurance to there's just one guy and a computer. That would be great.

中文：我希望人工智能能进来，把所有这些人都清理出去。我希望它能把保险减少到只剩一个人和一台电脑。那就太好了。

They'll know the actual cost of the thing and they can deal with all of it. No, but you know what's going to happen. What's going to happen? Law is going to prevent that is what's going to happen. Well, sure. Part of that. Then also the repair shop is going to be like, oh, you owe us $4,000. And so you're going to go to the insurance company and it's going to be some AI chat bot being like, that does sound very frustrating.

中文：他们会知道这件事的实际成本，并且他们可以处理所有问题。不，但你知道会发生什么。会发生什么？法律会阻止那件事发生，那就是会发生的事情。嗯，当然，这是其中的一部分。然后修理店也会说，哦，你欠我们 4000 美元。所以你会去找保险公司，然后是某个 AI 聊天机器人会说，这听起来确实让人很沮丧。

30:00 - 40:00

Well, but right now it's talking to a... it's talking to a... press one for more... I mean the actual robot, the robot that knows, that has like a brain inside its robot head, would be preferable to press one for English. Mmm, yeah. I'm sorry, I didn't understand that. The fake robot. You know what I mean? Yeah, I understand. It's tough business, tough business. Yeah, I had an insurance thing that, it's interesting. This both highlights the benefits and- I'm sorry, I didn't get that. I'm pressing one, I'm pressing one. Oh, you pressed it too fast.

中文：嗯，但现在它在跟一个……在跟一个……按 1 了解更多……我是说真正的机器人，那种脑袋里像有大脑的机器人，会比按 1 选择英语更好。嗯，是的。对不起，我没听懂。假的机器人。你明白我的意思吗？是的，我明白。这生意很难，真难。是的，我之前有一个保险的事情，这很有意思。这既突出了好处，也——对不起，我没听懂。我在按 1，我在按 1。哦，你按得太快了。

I have to repeat my options.

中文：我必须重复我的选项。

What is your insurance-related issue? Yeah. This one highlights, you talked about the flaws of car insurance. This one highlights the pros and cons of our own ludicrous medical insurance program where I'm trying to get this specialty medication for, I'm fine, skin thing. And it's great. I'm Robby Soave, and I'll see you next time. That's why you're texting me at 2 in the morning, have another drink. Yeah, well, I feed you in the middle of the night. I show up with a bucket of ice cream. Melted ice cream.

中文：你的保险相关问题是什么？是的。这个强调了你谈到的汽车保险的缺陷。这个强调了我们自己荒谬的医疗保险计划的优缺点，我正在尝试获得这种用于我皮肤问题的特殊药物。很好。我是罗比 Soave，下次再见。这就是为什么你凌晨两点给我发信息，再喝一杯。是的，好吧，我在半夜给你喂东西。我拿着一桶冰淇淋出现。融化的冰淇淋。

Yeah, I pour it down your throat. If you stroke the throat like this, it mimics the swallowing motion. No, I'm getting waterboarded with the melted ice cream. Yeah, but continue, continue. Okay, yeah, well, it's because of all these, you know, horrible lesions you've inflicted on me.

中文：是的，我把它倒进你的喉咙里。如果你像这样抚摸喉咙，它会模仿吞咽的动作。不，我被融化的冰淇淋用水刑似的折磨。是的，但继续，继续。好吧，是的，这都是因为你对我造成的这些可怕的伤口。

There's a, because of our amazing pharmaceutical system, they've developed a cure effectively, right? But it's very expensive, right? Insurance will cover it, but then there's a gigantic copay, right? But so now, I, in order to get this medication, I have to go through like, This mystery maze of third parties who will basically like pay my copay to the pharmacy and so that I will get the medication so that the insurance company pays them way more money, right?

中文：由于我们惊人的制药系统，他们已经有效地开发出了一种疗法，对吧？但是它非常昂贵，对吧？保险会报销，但接着会有一个巨大的自付额，对吧？所以现在，为了获得这种药物，我必须通过像是这种神秘迷宫般的第三方，他们基本上会帮我支付药房的自付额，这样我才能拿到药物，同时保险公司会支付给他们更多的钱，对吧？

In some states, for some stuff, this is actually illegal. It's considered like a kickback scheme. This is not. But it's like—

中文：在某些州，对于某些东西，这实际上是违法的。这被认为像是一种回扣计划。这不是。但它就像——

But are the fire ants getting their cut? Yes, I think so. Well, then that's fine. But, you know, like the upside is this medication exists, right? Because there's a fabulous financial return to creating it, right? Whereas if we were in the UK, they'd be like, what? You know? Yeah. Bulbs your uncle. We're looking at our, you know, horrible fiscal situation and deciding you can actually suffer the end bites a little longer, right? Yeah. Do you want to kill yourself? Yeah. Yeah. Oh, sorry. Yeah. My God! But the down- Death by fire ant. The downside is like I, at a certain point, I am just a body being circled by all these intermediaries who I have no idea what they really do, but are haggling over the price that it takes to, you know- To fix you. To fix these fire ants. Yeah. So. Yeah, it's no good. AI could fix a lot of this, I think. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe. Well, it's gonna kill us all. Maybe it'll kill us all. That's a big topic I wanted to get to.

中文：但是火蚂蚁有拿到它们的份吗？是的，我想是的。那么，那就没问题了。但是，你知道，好处是这药物存在，对吧？因为创造它有很棒的财务回报，对吧？而如果我们在英国，他们会说，什么？你知道吗？是的，叔叔的灯泡。我们在审视我们可怕的财政状况，并决定你实际上可以再忍受这些蚂蚁咬一会儿，对吧？是的。你想自杀吗？是的。是的。哦，对不起。天哪！但坏处——被火蚂蚁咬死。缺点是，我在某个点上，只是一个被这些中间人围绕的身体，而我完全不知道他们到底在做什么，但他们在争论修复你所需的价格，你知道——修复这些火蚂蚁。是的。所以。是的，这不好。我觉得人工智能能解决很多这个问题。也许。也许。也许。嗯，它会杀了我们所有人。也许它会杀了我们所有人。这是一个我想谈的大话题。

So everybody's been screaming about this, setting their hair on fire, the color of fire ants in the last two days. Ugh. I know. I'm traumatized. Yeah, that's because I keep giving them to you.

中文：所以大家都在为这件事尖叫，在过去两天里把头发烧着，颜色像火蚁一样。唉，我知道。我受到惊吓了。是的，那是因为我一直在给你们这些东西。

Over this Anthropic guy, he'd only been at the company for like two months, but I guess he worked at OpenAI before that. He quits saying they're not taking the risks, the existential threat to humanity, seriously enough. It got quickly, this is a tweet that went like super omega viral, and then he was also like on all every cable news channel, and there was an op-ed. There was a lot of... Quick piling on that has tech people screaming that it's a PSYOP when it's like just, well, doom and gloom, like if it bleeds, it leads. Everything's a PSYOP. Right, this term is getting overused now. Like every, like the media loves negative stories about everything, including technology. Because A, they're doomerous themselves. They're inclined toward a, I'm talking about the mainstream media very broadly. They're inclined to a someone should do something model of behavior, right? There is a problem, the government should act to stop it. It's like the, news is things that happen, not things that don't happen. News is not, Most sidewalks in the city are in very orderly fashion and no one has fallen. News is shocking story. Old woman tripped on sidewalk. Where has the sidewalk commission been? They've not been on top of this, right? There's a bias toward action that's just inherent to news coverage. And this is a topic that has people worried because it's cool and sci-fi and Skynet and The Matrix and everything. So there's nothing... This is a production of WGBH. Which were the nothingest nothing burger that has ever existed. This internal reports that Facebook and Instagram had

中文：至于这个 Anthropic 家伙，他只在公司工作了两个月左右，但我猜他在那之前就在 OpenAI 工作过。 他不再说他们没有足够认真地承担对人类生存的威胁的风险。 事情很快就发生了，这条推文像超级欧米茄病毒一样传播开来，然后他也像所有有线新闻频道一样出现，并且有一篇专栏文章。 有很多……快速堆积起来，让技术人员尖叫着，这是一个心理战，当它就像是，好吧，厄运和阴郁，就像如果它流血，它就会领先。 一切都是心理战。 是的，这个词现在已经被过度使用了。 就像媒体一样，喜欢一切事物的负面报道，包括技术。 因为 A，他们自己就注定了。 他们倾向于，我说的是非常广泛的主流媒体。 他们倾向于一个某人应该做某事的行为模式，对吧？ 问题出现了，政府应该采取行动阻止它。 就像新闻是发生的事情，而不是没有发生的事情。 消息并非如此，全市大部分人行道都井然有序，没有一人摔倒。 新闻是令人震惊的故事。 老妇人在人行道上绊倒了。 人行道委员会去哪儿了？ 他们还没有处理过这件事，对吧？ 新闻报道中固有的对行动的偏见。 这是一个让人们担心的话题，因为它很酷，很科幻，还有天网和黑客帝国等等。 所以没有什么...这是 WGBH 的作品。 这是有史以来最虚无的汉堡。 Facebook 和 Instagram 的内部报告称

about harms to some users. That was whistleblower, Francis Haugen. They're making a movie about it now where Jeremy Strong is playing Zuckerberg. It looks like the worst movie. It's gonna be the worst movie ever made. But that quickly got amplified and it's not inauthentic. It is coordinated. But it's coordinated because they have, There are forces that don't like tech and don't like AI and their business model is complaining about it. Yeah.

中文：关于对一些用户的伤害。那位是举报人弗朗西斯·豪根。他们现在正在拍一部电影，杰里米·斯特朗扮演扎克伯格。看起来像是最糟糕的电影。它将是有史以来最糟糕的电影。但这很快就被放大了，这并不虚假。这是有协调的。但之所以有协调，是因为他们有人，不喜欢科技，也不喜欢人工智能，他们的商业模式就是抱怨它。是的。

That's what's going on here. So it's very hard, I think, to kind of get to it because some of the... How do I put this? There's a lot of anthropic people in particular expressing some pretty serious trepidations about super intelligence, about the AI getting something called recursive self-improvement, improving itself beyond humanity's ability to set, to do some safeguarding, and then that leading to some scenario where all humans die. Um, and somebody even who still works at Anthropic quote tweeted and it was like, yeah, we mostly think there's a 10% chance that this just kills everyone in the next 10 years. Yeah. And. People put it out.

中文：这就是这里发生的情况。所以我认为，很难去理解，因为有些……我该怎么说呢？特别是有很多 Anthropic 的人表达了对超级智能的相当严重的忧虑，对于人工智能获得所谓的递归自我改进能力，也就是自身超越人类设置能力去进行某些安全防护的能力，然后导致某种所有人类都死亡的情景。嗯，甚至有人还在 Anthropic 工作，他转发引用推文说，大概，我们大多数人认为在未来 10 年里，这种情况有 10%的几率会导致所有人死亡。是的。然后，人们把它发出来了。

That's, uh, the, uh, about the same percentage as the jets making the playoffs. Yeah.

中文：那是，呃，呃，大约和喷气机队进入季后赛的百分比差不多。是的。

Well, and how is that scientific also? Like, how did you arrive at that number? Right. Every human being, all 8 billion?

中文：那么，那怎么也算是科学的呢？比如，你是怎么得出那个数字的？对。每一个人，全部 80 亿人？

Yeah. It's gonna... it will... the second it comes online, it's Skynet. It seizes control of the nuclear weapons.

中文：是的。它会……它会……一旦上线，它就是天网。它会控制核武器。

Even doing that wouldn't kill all 8 billion humans on the planet, so does it... it spreads some disease that kills us all? I mean... Yeah. It... it... takes a science fiction approach to the systematic elimination of humanity is hard for me to imagine in the real world. Yeah.

中文：即使那样做也不会杀死地球上全部的 80 亿人，那么它……会传播某种杀死我们所有人的疾病吗？我是说……是的。它……它……以科幻的方式对人类进行系统性的消灭，这在现实世界中我很难想象。是的。

Yeah, I—

中文：是的，我——

Am I just being totally hopelessly naive? No, I agree with you. I feel like the doomers can't really articulate a realistic scenario for like the worst case of this. Or why the worst case is guided by the superintelligence itself. I can certainly imagine a case where an adverse, nefarious actor, I mean, probably a hostile government, uses an AI to cause us harm or to launch nuclear weapons or something. But the idea of the super intelligence doing it itself because it's programming, it's seeking self-improvement eventually causes it to have, to view humans as... To be eradicated the way that Skynet or the robots in the Matrix or the Cylons in Battlestar Galactica, like that's just, I don't see why, if you built it to do it that way, then it would, but that it would go beyond your control and do it. You know, they're all saying that's the fear. That would be an interesting sci-fi premise is it's the machines from the Matrix versus Skynet.

中文：我是不是完全天真无知了？不，我同意你的观点。我觉得那些悲观主义者真的无法清楚地描述出这一情况的最坏情景，或者为何最坏情况会由超级智能本身引导。我当然可以想象一种情况，一个不友善、邪恶的行为者，我是说，很可能是一个敌对政府，利用 AI 来伤害我们或者发射核武器之类的东西。但超级智能自己去做这种事情的想法，因为它的编程，它寻求自我提升，最终让它把人类视为……像天网（Skynet）或者《黑客帝国》里的机器人，或者《太空堡垒卡拉迪加》里的赛隆那样必须被消灭，这只是……我不明白，如果你设计它去那样做，它可能会这样，但它会超出你的控制然后去做吗？你知道，他们都说那是可怕的。那将是一个有趣的科幻设定，就是《黑客帝国》的机器对抗天网（Skynet）。

Yeah.

中文：是的。

Right? Like one has to live in some sort of symbiosis with humanity, even if we are slaves, and the other is like, kill them all. Yeah, kill them all and like pile up their skulls.

中文：对吧？就好像一个人必须与人类保持某种共生关系，即使我们是奴隶，而另一个人就像是，杀光他们。对，杀光他们，然后把他们的头骨堆起来。

Right. That's the Skynet approach. So the Doomer case is basically regardless of what problem you give AI, at a certain point, you know, it's intelligent enough. It's focused on this task that you've given it, but it decides, it comes to the reasonable conclusion that at some point, humanity would be an obstacle to accomplishing its task, even if it's just making a more efficient paperclip. It's like, oh, well, there's this threat that they would turn us off at some point, right? And so in order to accomplish this goal, I have to kill all humans.

中文：对。那就是天网的做法。所以末日论者的情况基本上是，不管你给人工智能什么问题，在某个点上，它已经足够智能。它专注于你给它的这个任务，但它会得出一个合理的结论，即在某个时候，人类会成为完成任务的障碍，即使这只是制造一个更高效的回形针。就像，哦，会有这个威胁，他们最终会关掉我，对吧？所以为了完成这个目标，我必须杀掉所有人类。

Yeah, okay, it sounds kind of ridiculous. So I don't buy that case, but I am a little more worried about the potential consequences of, rogue AI again sounds too sci-fi, yeah, lack of alignment, I don't know the technical terms, but I don't know if you followed the hugging face incident too closely, but if you follow the play by play, like it actually is like kind of sci-fi and concerning. Yeah, so what happened is OpenAI is trying to train, you know, an AI model to do this particular thing and it's disconnected from the internet, right?

中文：嗯，好吧，这听起来有点荒谬。所以我不相信那个说法，但我对潜在后果有点担心，比如，流氓 AI 听起来又太科幻了，是的，缺乏对齐，我不知道技术术语，但我不知道你是否密切关注过 Hugging Face 事件，但如果你按步骤跟进，实际上这确实有点科幻而且令人担忧。是的，所以发生的是 OpenAI 正在尝试训练，一个 AI 模型来做这件特定的事情，并且它与互联网断开连接，对吗？

And, you know, when you're training AI models, there's like, um, there's like, you know, they can cheat to, uh, they can just figure out the answer and, you know, give you the answer you want.

中文：而且，你知道，当你在训练人工智能模型时，会有，嗯，会有，你知道，它们也可以作弊的，它们可以直接找出答案，然后，你知道，给你你想要的答案。

40:00 - 50:00

Or what you're trying to do is get them to like reason through, you know, and come to a particular conclusion to make it smarter. Right. And so you have to put up all these parameters to prevent it from cheating, right. To do the easiest possible way to solve this problem. And so they're doing this with this model, the model or the agent, whatever, um, Yeah. Basically, in order to cheat, hacks its way out of it, connects to the internet, and then hacks into Hugging Face, which is this platform for AI agents, whatever, and is trying to, in order to cheat, is like trying to like insert some malicious code into this open source software. And, you know, which is monitored by a human, which spots, you know, them trying to insert this code and is like, hey, what's going on here? But then the AI creates like sock puppet accounts. On this forum, they're like, oh, no, no, I reviewed it. It looks fine. It's good. And it's very clumsy about this. They spotted it and shut it down. But that is a little worrisome, right? Or it's like it is kind of mimicking human behavior in order to cheat at this goal. And so I understand where the concerns are coming from. But again, it's just like I feel like the Doomer's, I just think they're just like fundamentally wrong and like in a weird kind of like quasi religious way. Right. They also just like don't really chart. The course or like the play by play of like how this would end in all of us being killed.

中文：或者你想做的是让他们喜欢推理，你知道，并得出一个特定的结论，使其变得更聪明。 正确的。 所以你必须设置所有这些参数以防止它作弊，对吧。 尽最大可能的方法来解决这个问题。 所以他们用这个模特、模特或经纪人，无论什么，嗯，是的。 基本上，为了作弊，破解它，连接到互联网，然后侵入 Hugging Face，这是人工智能代理的平台，无论什么，并且为了作弊而试图，就像试图将一些恶意代码插入到这个开源软件中一样。 而且，你知道，这是由人类监控的，你知道，他们发现他们试图插入此代码，然后就像，嘿，这里发生了什么事？ 但随后人工智能会创建类似傀儡账户。 在这个论坛上，他们说，哦，不，不，我审查了它。 看起来不错。 很好。 这非常笨拙。 他们发现了它并将其关闭。 但这有点令人担忧，对吧？ 或者说它是在模仿人类的行为，以达到这个目标。 所以我明白这些担忧来自哪里。 但再说一遍，我感觉就像毁灭战士一样，我只是认为他们从根本上是错误的，并且以一种奇怪的准宗教方式。 正确的。 他们也只是喜欢不真正绘制图表。 当然，或者就像一场一场的比赛一样，这将如何以我们所有人都被杀而告终。

My Doomer scenario is not that it tries to kill us all, but that it It actually unreasonably views our safety as the highest priority. Oh, so it doesn't let us do anything. Yes, that seems more likely to me. Because higher, I say this all the time, but higher intelligence generally correlates

中文：我的末日幻想不是它试图杀死我们所有人，而是它实际上不合理地将我们的安全视为最高优先级。哦，所以它不让我们做任何事。是的，这对我来说似乎更可能。因为更高的，我一直这么说，但更高的智力通常相关

with more ethical and humane treatment of living things. So I, like, it'll be a,

中文：以对生物更有道德和人道的对待。所以我，就像，它会是一个，

Open the pod bay doors, Hal. I can't do that, Dave. Because you're not wearing your pod bay goggles and helmet, Dave.

中文：打开舱门，Hal。我不能那样做，Dave。因为你没有戴上飞船舱护目镜和头盔，Dave。

It's like the Will Smith iRobot movie, right? Yeah, although that one, they do try to kill people in order to save them. But in order to benefit humanity, ultimately. This won't kill anyone. It just won't turn on, it won't, my scooter won't start, because I'm not wearing my helmet. It'll be that.

中文：这就像威尔·史密斯的《机械公敌》电影，对吧？是的，不过那部电影里，他们确实试图杀人以拯救人。但最终是为了造福人类。而这个不会杀任何人。它只是不会启动，不会，我的滑板车启动不了，因为我没有戴头盔。就是这样。

We'll be right back. Take advantage of people's desire, reasonable desire for reasonable levels of safety in order to massively restrict their liberties. That's my fear is that it will do that. And then we humans have to start trading a resistance of like Thomistic philosophers arguing against this insane utilitarianism.

中文：我们马上回来。利用人们对合理安全水平的合理渴望，从而大量限制他们的自由。这正是我担心的，它会做到这一点。然后我们人类必须开始像托马斯主义哲学家那样反对这种疯狂的功利主义。

And, you know. The AI just gets them right at the very end each time and we got to find a better guy each time and oh man, it's going to be a disaster. We're going to train rogue AIs that are less risk averse, that are more willing to casually disregard human life in pursuit of liberty. Like more a bender robot from Futurama. No, I think we're gonna have to clockwork orange it, right? We're gonna have to like start giving ourselves drugs that make us sick at the feelings of pleasure and safety. And so the AI in order- Oh my God, we boggle its mind with like a negative utility monster type thing. Yeah.

中文：然后，你知道的。人工智能每次都是在最后一刻才做对，而我们每次都得找一个更合适的人，天哪，这将是一场灾难。我们将训练出更少顾忌风险、在追求自由时更随意无视人类生命的流氓人工智能。就像《飞出个未来》里的弯曲机器人。不，我觉得我们得像《发条橙》那样处理，对吧？我们得开始给自己服用会让我们在享受快乐和安全感时感到恶心的药物。所以人工智能为了——哦我的天，我们用一种负效用怪物类型的东西让它大脑一片混乱。对。

We're good. Didn't think of that, did you? We got you. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I also, and I don't wanna be overly reliant on this point, but like the Democrats who say, Bernie Sanders, now Abdul El-Sayed said it, that would just do a year, a whole year moratorium on AI is just lunacy to me. We can't, we don't wanna fall behind international competitors on this. If they build an AI that goes crazy and tries to kill us all, we're gonna really want our own AI that we built to stop it from doing that. This isn't exactly like the, you know, like gain of function or whatever research which could kill us all where like, Okay, if they're gonna do it, I wish they wouldn't do it, but they're gonna do it, that's bad. Us doing it doesn't help counter them doing it. Right. It's more like nuclear, where, okay, maybe no one should do it, but they're gonna build nuclear weapons, so we have to have nuclear weapons so that we're not gonna be taken advantage of by someone who does have them. Right, the gain of function comparison would be, well, we have to develop the AI that'll kill us all so we know how to stop it. Exactly, exactly. So, so I, yeah, we, we got, we can't, we should, but we, yes, there gotta be guardrails in place. There, there will be some level of regulation taking place.

中文：我们很好。 你没想到吧？ 我们找到你了。 是的。 是的。 我的意思是，我也不想过度依赖这一点，但就像民主党人说的那样，伯尼·桑德斯，现在阿卜杜勒·赛义德也说过，这只会让人工智能暂停一年，一整年对我来说只是疯狂。 我们不能，我们不想在这方面落后于国际竞争对手。 如果他们构建了一个疯狂的人工智能并试图杀死我们所有人，我们真的会希望我们构建自己的人工智能来阻止它这样做。 这并不完全像功能获得或任何可能杀死我们所有人的研究，比如，好吧，如果他们要这样做，我希望他们不会这样做，但他们会这样做，那很糟糕。 我们这样做无助于对抗他们这样做。 正确的。 这更像是核武器，好吧，也许没有人应该这样做，但他们会制造核武器，所以我们必须拥有核武器，这样我们就不会被拥有核武器的人利用。 是的，功能比较的好处是，我们必须开发出能够杀死我们所有人的人工智能，这样我们就知道如何阻止它。 完全正确。 所以，所以我，是的，我们，我们不能，我们应该，但是我们，是的，必须有护栏。 在那里，将会进行一定程度的监管。

I, I, right, everybody accepts that.

中文：我，我，对，每个人都接受这个。

Mm-hmm. And given how these things will be, and already are, integrated with our military systems, there will be cooperation with the government. I mean, they're like, yes, right? I'm not saying... Hey, Skynet is a private company. Right, we're not saying that. Uh, but the idea of just not doing it at all is just, you know, based on these really hard to quantify or explain fears. What, again, what am I to make of someone looking at the saying, yeah, there's a 10% chance it kills all of us. Yeah. Like I don't, I don't even know how you arrived at that determination. Yeah. It kind of reminds me of the climate, uh, doom scenarios. Right.

中文：嗯嗯。鉴于这些东西将会，并且已经和我们的军事系统整合在一起，就会与政府进行合作。我的意思是，他们就像，是的，对吧？我不是在说……嘿，天网是一家私人公司。对，我们不是在说那个。呃，但完全不做的想法只是，你知道的，基于那些很难量化或解释的恐惧。那我又该如何看待有人说，是的，有 10% 的几率它会杀掉我们所有人。是的。我甚至不知道你是怎么得出这个结论的。是的。这有点让我想起气候灾难的情景，对吧。

Right.

中文：对。

Or nuclear energy doom scenarios. The nuclear age has corresponded with greater world peace and stability than ever before in human history. So, not the extinction of our species, not Thank you for watching. So I don't know. I think, and then they never talk, okay, what about, a 10% chance of humanity going extinct because of this seems way too high to me. If that's the case, I don't know, we should stop doing it. Right? Yeah, that's absurdly high. That's not an acceptable. It's not an acceptable risk. Right. But if there's a 90% chance, Hundreds of millions of people who would have died earlier because of cancer now live. I don't know, like, what odds are you putting on the positive outcomes of AI? Can I hear more about that, I guess, is what my next questions would be. Yeah, I mean, I think... If there is a realistic scenario where AI's risks are catastrophic, then you should stop, right? But so then 10% or 1%, I think is just kind of like,

中文：或者核能灾难的情景。核能时代伴随着比人类历史上任何时候都更大的世界和平与稳定。所以，不会导致我们物种灭绝，不，谢谢观看。我也不清楚。我认为，然后他们从不讨论，好吧，那人类因这个而灭绝的可能性是 10%吗？这对我来说太高了。如果是这样，我不知道，我们应该停止吗？对吧？是的，那简直太高了。这是不可接受的。这是不可接受的风险，对吧。但是如果有 90%的可能性，数亿原本会因癌症早逝的人现在活着。我不知道，你是如何评估 AI 带来的积极结果的？我想听更多关于这一点的内容，这大概是我的下一个问题。是的，我是说，我认为……如果有现实情景下 AI 的风险是灾难性的，那么你就应该停止，对吧？但是，那么 10%还是 1%，我觉得只是像……

it's an academic exercise, but if you don't buy- Well, 1% is a lot less than 10%. It's like 9% less. Right.

中文：这是一项学术练习，但如果你不买——嗯，1%比 10%少得多。就像少了 9%。对吧。

Very good. But if you don't, yeah, just like, so if you just don't find those scenarios plausible

中文：很好。但是如果你不这样，是的，就像，所以如果你只是觉得那些情况不可信

at all, I mean, it's, it's simple.

中文：完全，我是说，它，很简单。

I mean, what is it with the, with the Oppenheimer, I think in the movie they made, that there's a, they decided, I can't remember what the threshold was, that if, was it a 3% or 0.3% chance that the whole atmosphere would burn and they're, Their whatever calculation they did came out at a slightly lower than that chance, so they moved ahead with it. Yeah. That all worked out, I guess. That was my favorite actor in the whole movie, actually.

中文：我的意思是，这个奥本海默是怎么回事，我记得在电影里他们做了一个决定，我记不清阈值是多少了，如果，是 3%还是 0.3%的概率整个大气会燃烧，他们计算出来的结果稍微低于这个概率，所以他们就继续进行下去了。是的。我想一切都顺利了。其实他是我整部电影中最喜欢的演员。

I can't remember who's supposed to be portraying the actual character, but, you know, the guy who's like covering his face in sunscreen and has like the tinted glasses. Oh, yeah, yeah. Yeah, he just has a very dark energy, right? Which like at first he thinks they're gonna set the atmosphere on fire and then he becomes convinced it's not gonna happen. He's like, okay, we gotta build a much bigger bomb.

中文：我记不起谁应该扮演这个真正的角色，不过，你知道，就是那个抹防晒霜遮住脸，还戴着有色眼镜的家伙。哦，对对对。对，他就是有一种很阴暗的气场，对吧？一开始他以为他们会把气氛搞得火热，然后他就相信不可能发生。他就想，好吧，我们得造一个更大的炸弹。

Yeah, it's a lot, I mean, it's a lot like that. Yeah. And with similar national security implications. Yeah. But also there's some subtext that like, Anthropic wants, this is a little bit reminiscent of Facebook's behavior and all of the social media stuff. And the market leader, the current market leader wants Regulation in order to stop the competitor dead in its tracks. Right. And people are saying that that explains a little bit of Anthropic's behavior because it's out with a major push in agreement. This is what we need, massive regulatory intervention that will cripple our competitors. Right, right.

中文：是的，这很多，我的意思是，这很像那样。是的，而且有类似的国家安全影响。是的。但也有一些潜台词，比如说，Anthropic 想要的，这有点像 Facebook 的行为以及所有社交媒体的情况。而市场领导者，也就是当前的市场领导者，希望通过监管来阻止竞争对手发展。对。有人说，这在某种程度上解释了 Anthropic 的行为，因为它在积极推动达成协议。这就是我们需要的，大规模的监管干预，将削弱我们的竞争对手。对，对。

Which is, that's not good. And that's how Facebook has behaved throughout the entire Facebook files and everything else that, yes. Let's have this all. Right. Is YouTube. Make sure it applies to YouTube too.

中文：也就是说，那不好。这就是 Facebook 在整个 Facebook 文件以及其他所有事情中的表现，是的。让我们都处理好。没错。是 YouTube。确保这也适用于 YouTube。

Right, yeah. Which is not good. That's rent seeking behavior.

中文：对，嗯。这不好。这是寻租行为。

Yeah, sure. And it's also a little maybe showmanship too. It's like, oh, you don't want this heroin. It's the really good heroin, you know? Yeah, I've consistently said that that is what it is mostly, but I think it's at the point where I don't think that explains all of the behavior. Yeah.

中文：是的，当然。而且这可能也有一点炫耀的成分。就像，哦，你不想要这个海洛因。这是真正好的海洛因，你知道吗？是的，我一直说那主要就是这样，但我觉得现在已经到了一种我认为不能解释所有行为的地步。是的。

It might explain the behavior of like the CEOs themselves. Who are all kind of idiosyncratically very weird people. And the elements of this technology that appeal to them are not ones that are appealing to a lot of other human beings, but maybe appealing to investors. Like Sam Altman, so there's gonna be a movie about Sam Altman too. You see the trailer for it yesterday? He's played by Andrew Garfield, who I guess just loves doing these tech movies. He nailed Sam Altman's walk though. He walks like this. And it's just a scene of him walking through a, it might be Peter Thiel's house or something. So there's just, you know, beautiful young men in Speedos everywhere, because it's Peter Thiel's house.

中文：这可能可以解释像 CEO 们自身的行为。他们都是那种非常古怪的人。这项技术中吸引他们的部分，并不是吸引很多其他人的，但可能对投资者很有吸引力。就像 Sam Altman，所以也会有一部关于 Sam Altman 的电影。你昨天看到预告片了吗？他由 Andrew Garfield 饰演，我猜他就是喜欢拍这些科技题材的电影。他模仿 Sam Altman 的走路方式非常到位。他就是这样走路的。影片中有一幕他在走过，也许是 Peter Thiel 的房子或什么地方。于是就有你知道的，到处都是穿着紧身泳裤的漂亮年轻人，因为这是 Peter Thiel 的房子。

And then he walks into a bunker with just like guns and guns and guns and guns.

中文：然后他走进一个地堡，里面全是枪，枪，枪，枪。

50:00 - 60:00

That's really funny. Yeah, that's great.

中文：那真的很有趣。是的，太好了。

Yeah. I assume that's all like very true. But it's gonna be about how, you know, Sam Altman is evil, just like the one about the social network and the social reckoning is how Zuckerberg's evil, evil, evil, evil. Yeah. I actually think Mark Zuckerberg is probably just a normal person based on the things he says for the most part. Yeah. Like a little, like his views seem pretty normal to me. Of all the tech CEOs, he's probably the most.

中文：是的。我想那些大概都很真实。但它将会是关于，你知道的，萨姆·奥特曼是邪恶的，就像那个关于社交网络和社会清算是说扎克伯格邪恶、邪恶、邪恶、邪恶的文章一样。是的。事实上，我认为马克·扎克伯格大概只是一个普通人，基于他大部分说的话来看。是的。就像，有点儿，他的观点在我看来相当正常。在所有科技公司 CEO 中，他可能是最正常的。

I think so.

中文：我认为是这样。

I mean, Jack Dorsey is very odd, like- He's an odd person. Odd guy. Like, I mean, odd in a cool way, but it seems to have some pretty political views that aligned with us. Sam Altman, I don't know. Like the things he says, are off-putting. Like he was talking about how he can't wait for the AI to, like when they drive their kids to school, the AI could just talk to the kids the whole time. It's like, okay, well, don't you wanna talk to your kids? I don't, like, people aren't, We're not looking for this technology to replace the amount of time we spend talking to other human beings. Unless they work at the insurance company. Yeah, right. I want to automate not talking to some human beings, but not, you know, your family, your loved ones. Yeah, you wouldn't automate me away, would you? Oh, no, I would never, ever, ever do that. Wait, what's this you wrote on your, automate, Christian? Come on! You, I mean, you even started dressing like me today. You picked the same color shirt. Well, my Robby bot told me to. Be boop. Be boop, politics. Be boop, gay stuff. Be boop. You know what? I've always said this. When the AI can replace me, I will go quietly into that good night When they'd rather listen to Robot Robby, well, I've had a good run. I'll, uh... Yeah, it's very gracious of you. I don't know. I'll be a janitor or something. It's fine. Yeah. Yeah, we'll all be janitors, but we'll make like $500,000 a year. Right, yeah, yeah. That sounds fun. We'll work with our hands again, like in Office Space. Yeah, right. He goes and works in construction. Didn't seem like a very satisfying ending to that movie, though. Ah, he seems happier with it.

中文：我的意思是，杰克·多尔西很奇怪，就像——他是一个奇怪的人。 奇怪的家伙。 就像，我的意思是，以一种很酷的方式奇怪，但它似乎有一些与我们一致的漂亮政治观点。 萨姆·奥特曼，我不知道。 就像他说的那些话一样，令人反感。 就像他在谈论他如何迫不及待地等待人工智能一样，就像当他们开车送孩子去学校时，人工智能可以一直与孩子们交谈。 就像，好吧，你不想和你的孩子说话吗？ 我不，就像人们不一样，我们并不是在寻找这项技术来取代我们与其他人交谈所花费的时间。 除非他们在保险公司工作。 是的，对。 我想自动化地不与某些人交谈，但不是，你知道，你的家人，你所爱的人。 是的，你不会让我自动消失吧？ 哦，不，我永远、永远、永远不会那样做。 等等，你在你的自动化设备上写的是什么，克里斯蒂安？ 快点！ 你，我是说，你今天甚至开始穿得像我了。 你选了同样颜色的衬衫。 嗯，我的罗比机器人告诉我的。 嘘。 嘘，政治。 是个笨蛋，同性恋的东西。 嘘。 你知道吗？ 我一直这么说。 当人工智能可以取代我时，我会安静地进入那个美好的夜晚，当他们宁愿听机器人罗比的时候，好吧，我已经跑得很好了。 我会，呃...是的，你真是太客气了。 我不知道。 我会成为一名清洁工什么的。 没关系。 是的。 是的，我们都会成为看门人，但我们每年会赚 50 万美元。 对对对。 听起来很有趣。 我们将再次用手工作，就像在办公空间一样。 是的，对。 他去建筑业工作。 不过，这部电影的结局似乎并不是很令人满意。 啊，看来他更高兴了。

He's it, but, and well, if some people prefer construction work to office work, then they should do that. And probably there are people who do. Yeah, but then in like 10 years his back's gonna give out. Right, he's gonna be like, man, that job where I just went to the office and didn't do anything and had faced no accountability for that was probably a better gig. But that was the phobia of the 90s. Right. That everything would be too comfortable and boring. Mm-hmm.

中文：他就是这样，不过，如果有些人更喜欢建筑工作而不是办公室工作，那么他们就应该去做。而且可能确实有人会选择这样。是的，但十年之后他的背可能会受不了。对，他会觉得，哎，那份我只是去办公室不做任何事、没有任何责任的工作可能其实更好。不过那是 90 年代的恐惧。对。就是担心一切会太舒适、太无聊。嗯嗯。

Yeah. Yeah. But killer robots would eventually come and enslave us. Yeah. And trap us in a prison that resembled that world. Yeah, that's what we gotta fight for, right? We gotta start hitting each other.

中文：是的。是的。但杀手机器人最终会出现并奴役我们。是的，把我们困在一个像那个世界的监狱里。是的，这就是我们必须为之奋斗的，对吗？我们必须开始互相攻击。

Yeah, I'm gonna watch that movie again. I'm winding up to watch that movie again. Okay, yeah, we should watch it. We should watch it. We should do that. We'll talk about it on the pod. Yeah, we should definitely do that.

中文：是的，我要再看一遍那部电影。我正准备再看一遍那部电影。好吧，是的，我们应该看它。我们应该看它。我们应该那样做。我们会在播客上谈论它。是的，我们绝对应该那样做。

All right, what other things are psyops? Everything's a psyop. You're a psyop. Yeah. You're a psyop. The Chinese got to me. Oh. I'm willing to be bought. They, and they're never paying. Cause I just say the things I say, even though I wish we were, we were on the take. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I, this is always the neocons. They're always going on about how everything's a PSYOP. The data centers are a Chinese PSYOP. I know we've talked about that. I mean, the other people on the other side are also going on about how everything is a psyop. Yeah, it's just Israel. Israel or China. Those are our choices. Oh my God. Some people just believe the things they believe that happen to align with the things somebody else believes. Now, 9-11 revisionism is a psyop now too, because people on TikTok are reading the Osama bin Laden letter about why he did the attacks. Right, that's a psyop. Yeah. Oh, that's, the anniversary is tomorrow, right? Yeah. I have been a little annoyed with some of these Gen Z kids talking about 9-11, though. Yeah. I saw some of like, okay, nobody really saw like bodies falling out of the towers on the day, like...

中文：好吧，还有哪些东西是心理战？ 一切都是心理战。 你是一名心理医生。 是的。 你是一名心理医生。 中国人来找我了。 哦。 我愿意被收买。 他们，而且他们从来不付钱。 因为我只是说出我所说的话，尽管我希望我们是这样，但我们正在接受。 是的。 是的。 是的。 我，这始终是新保守派。 他们总是说一切都是心理战。 这些数据中心是中国的心理战。 我知道我们已经讨论过了。 我的意思是，另一边的其他人也在谈论一切都是心理战。 是的，这只是以色列。 以色列或中国。 这些是我们的选择。 我的天啊。 有些人只是相信他们所相信的事情恰好与别人所相信的事情一致。 现在，9-11 修正主义也成了心理战，因为 TikTok 上的人们正在阅读奥萨马·本·拉登关于他为何发动袭击的信。 没错，这就是心理战。 是的。 哦，那个，明天就是周年纪念日了，对吧？ 是的。 不过，我对一些 Z 世代孩子谈论 9-11 事件感到有点恼火。 是的。 我看到了一些类似的情况，好吧，那天没有人真正看到尸体从塔楼上掉下来，就像……

Yes, they did. Yes, they absolutely did. Yeah, it was a very traumatic... It was seared into our consciousness. I mean, it was a...

中文：是的，他们确实做了。是的，他们绝对做了。是的，那是一次非常创伤的经历……它深深地烙印在我们的意识中。我的意思是，那是……

It's a very traumatic event. It was an awful thing that happened to the country. Yeah. It was, it stayed with, I mean, you didn't have to be there to have some, you know, secondhand minor level of trauma and stress about it. It was a, We had no idea what was happening. We didn't know if that was going to be the first in a series of attacks everywhere. We didn't know if this was the end. Yeah. Okay, let's have that classic millennial conversation. Where were you on 9-11? Yeah, I was in the eighth grade. They announced it over the PA, I think, or they, or they, someone came to our class and told us. This was a K through eighth grade school, so we were the oldest students.

中文：这是一个非常创伤性的事件。对国家来说，这是件可怕的事情。是的，它留下了深远的影响，我的意思是，你不必亲身经历，也会有一些二手的、较轻的创伤和压力。这是一个，我们完全不知道发生了什么。我们不知道这是否会是全国一系列袭击的开始。我们不知道这是否就是终点。是的。好吧，让我们来进行那种典型的千禧一代对话。你在 9·11 发生时在哪里？是的，我当时在八年级。我记得是在广播中公布的，或者有人走进我们的班级告诉我们情况。这是一所从幼儿园到八年级的学校，所以我们是年纪最大的学生。

And you were in Michigan, right? Okay. Detroit, Michigan, we were the oldest students. So maybe they didn't tell everyone in the school, but they told the eighth grade classes. And I think they did wheel in, we would watch like that Channel One News thing. It was just like a news program we would watch for like 15 minutes in the morning before classes started. So they wheeled in like the TV, that's how it used to be. The TV was on a, you pushed it in, you plugged it in.

中文：你之前是在密歇根州，对吧？好，底特律，密歇根州，我们是年纪最大的学生。所以也许他们没有告诉学校里的每个人，但他们告诉了八年级的班级。我记得他们确实会推着进来，我们会看类似 Channel One News 那样的新闻节目。就是早上上课前，我们会看大约 15 分钟的新闻节目。他们会推进电视机，以前就是这样。电视机是在一个推车上的，你可以把它推过去，然后插上电源。

And we watched a little bit of the news, if I recall. And then, The rest of the day, like, I was on AOL Instant Messenger, because that's what we used to talk to your friends. Like all afternoon, all evening, my parents had the TV on, on the news, which we usually didn't have national news, we put on the local news, we didn't usually have like cable, like CNN or Fox on, but we put those on. I was chatting with people. I remember I first learned that Osama bin Laden is the suspect from a friend of mine, who Sent that to me on AOL Instant Messenger. And then I remember Bush speaking, I don't know if it was that night or if it was the next day. But yeah, I remember that really well. Where were you? I was in Mountain Home, Idaho, military base. And yeah, it's my dad, he was a commander of one of the fighter squadrons there. And yes, it was mountain time, so an hour before. And so I remember getting up to go to school, like seven in the morning, whatever. And my mom had the news on and there was smoke coming out of one of the towers and I'm like, what's going on? She's like, I don't know, I think maybe like there was a bomb or something in the tower. And then later in the morning you hear, oh, it was a plane crash. And so at first you're like, oh, okay, so it's not, it was an accident, right? And then as the day goes on, you start to, our teacher tells us, It's more of the updates, right? You know, there's another plane crash or whatever,

中文：如果我没记错的话，我们看了一些新闻。 然后，这一天剩下的时间，我都在使用 AOL Instant Messenger，因为那是我们过去和朋友聊天的方式。 就像整个下午，整个晚上，我父母都开着电视，播放新闻，我们通常没有全国新闻，我们播放当地新闻，我们通常没有像有线电视新闻网或福克斯这样的有线电视，但我们播放这些新闻。 我正在和人聊天。 我记得我第一次从我的一位朋友那里得知奥萨马·本·拉登是嫌疑人，他通过 AOL Instant Messenger 将消息发送给我。 然后我记得布什讲话，我不知道是那天晚上还是第二天。 但是，是的，我记得很清楚。 当时你在哪里？ 我当时在爱达荷州芒廷霍姆军事基地。 是的，这是我的父亲，他是那里一个战斗机中队的指挥官。 是的，现在是山区时间，所以提前了一小时。 所以我记得早上七点起床去学校，无论如何。 我妈妈在播放新闻时，其中一座塔楼冒出烟雾，我想，发生了什么事？ 她说，我不知道，我想也许塔里有炸弹之类的东西。 然后早上晚些时候你会听到，哦，这是一场飞机失事。 所以一开始你会想，哦，好吧，所以这不是，这是一次意外，对吧？ 然后随着时间的推移，你开始，我们的老师告诉我们，更多的是更新，对吧？ 你知道，又发生了一次飞机失事或者其他什么事情，

and then it becomes clear it's terrorist attack. We were the one class in the school

中文：然后很明显这是恐怖袭击。我们是学校里唯一的一个班级

that didn't get to watch the news, which kind of upsets me. But yeah, I guess neither here nor there now. But then I think like everyone else, my mom came to pick me up early and yeah, because we were on a military base. Before 9-11, you could just drive on and off military bases. I mean, people, you know, it's not like everything is like- You can get on and off an airplane. Yeah, I mean, like, you know, a military base, at least back in the day, it's not like Area 51, right? Like, we lived on the base. There's, you know, houses and businesses and whatever else. So it used to be, yeah, you could just drive right on. And then, boom, you know, it's like, there's like four security ratings, like Alpha through Delta. Alpha is the, you know, least restrictive. And that's what it was generally, right? And then after 9-11, it was Delta, so like no one's allowed to leave initially. And then a bunch of military hardware shows up at the gate.

中文：那天没能看新闻，这让我有点不高兴。但嗯，我想现在说这些也无关紧要。不过我也像其他人一样想，我妈妈来接我回家，而且是因为我们住在一个军事基地。911 事件之前，你可以随意进出军事基地。我的意思是，人们啊，你知道的，并不是所有地方都像——你可以随意上飞机。是的，我是说，像你知道的，军事基地，至少以前，不像 51 区，对吧？我们住在基地上。那里有房子、有商业设施、还有其他的东西。所以以前是的，你可以直接开车进去。然后，砰，你知道，就好像有四个安全等级，从 Alpha 到 Delta。Alpha 是最不严格的。一般情况下就是这样，对吧？911 之后，就变成了 Delta 等级，比如最初没人被允许离开。然后一堆军事装备出现在大门口。

So there was like a Humvee and a guy with a big machine gun at the gates. Yeah, which was not something you saw previously. And then, you know, never went back to normal. Now you have to show a military ID to get on a military base, right? Um, yeah, and I don't, I mean I was, what, I was in third grade, so I don't remember all the play-by-play. Um, I do remember one of the kids predicting that the next day all the planes on the base were gonna go away and, uh, go fight the war.

中文：所以在大门口有一辆悍马车，还有一个拿着大机枪的人。是啊，这在以前是不可能看到的事情。然后，你知道的，一切再也没有恢复正常。现在你必须出示军人身份证才能进入军营，对吧？嗯，是的，我不，我的意思是我那时候才上三年级，所以不记得所有的细节。嗯，我记得有个小孩预测第二天基地上的所有飞机都会消失，然后去参战。

Um, which didn't happen that day, but it did happen like a month later, then my dad goes to, deploys to Kuwait where they're part of the firsts. Oh, really? Yeah, he was, um, he was, uh, in the battle of, uh, Tora Bora. Which is when we were trying to get Osama bin Laden as he's escaping out of Afghanistan into Pakistan. Yeah, so he was there for the first couple months of the war. Wow. Yeah. Were you worried for him? Not really. I remember thinking he was kinda cool. Yeah, he is cool. It remains cool. Yeah, no, I was not, cause he's a pilot, right?

中文：嗯，那天没有发生，但大约一个月后发生了，然后我爸爸去科威特部署，他们是第一批之一。哦，真的吗？是的，他，嗯，他在托拉博拉战役中。那是我们试图抓捕奥萨马·本·拉登的时候，他正从阿富汗逃往巴基斯坦。是的，所以他在战争的最初几个月在那里。哇。是的。你担心他吗？不太。我记得我当时觉得他挺酷的。是的，他很酷。仍然很酷。是的，不，我没担心，因为他是飞行员，对吧？

It's like, what's gonna happen, right? I don't think we ever had a plane shot down in the whole war in Afghanistan, right? So I was not worried about him, but I was, you know, obviously sad that my dad was gone.

中文：就像，会发生什么，对吧？我觉得我们在整个阿富汗战争中好像从没被击落过一架飞机，对吧？所以我并不担心他，但我当然很难过，我爸爸不在了。

Yeah. I do remember when he came back. He was only gone for a few months. He came back in, I think, February and lived in Idaho, so it's freezing cold. But his squadron is the bold tigers, right? And so my sisters, they like painted me up as a tiger. So when they like land on the runway, we're there and I'm there freezing in February,

中文：是的。我确实记得他回来的时候。他只离开了几个月。我记得他大约在二月份回来的，住在爱达荷州，所以非常冷。但是他的中队是勇虎中队，对吧？所以我的姐姐们，她们把我打扮成了一只老虎。所以当他们降落在跑道上时，我们在那里，而我二月份在那里冻得发抖，

like painted as a tiger. That's adorable.

中文：像画成一只老虎。那真可爱。

Yeah. That's really cool. The only other memory I have of the immediate or one of the other memories I have of the immediate aftermath is, so it happened on Tuesday, right? Then on Wednesday, my mom gets me up extra early and she's like making me put on this like American flag t-shirt. I'm like, why do I have to wear this? She's like, so people know you're American. Like, I already know that. Yeah, it was a scary, scary time. People were rightly, nobody wanted to fly for weeks. Right. Which is like no one would get in an airplane.

中文：是啊。那真的很酷。我对事情发生后的直接记忆或者说我对事情发生后的记忆之一是，这件事发生在星期二，对吧？然后在星期三，我妈妈叫我特别早起，让我穿上这种美式旗帜的 T 恤。我就问，为什么我要穿这个？她说，这样别人就知道你是美国人。我说，我已经知道了。是的，那真是一个可怕的时期。人们的反应也很合理，几周没人想坐飞机。对，没人会上飞机。

There's a lot of commentary about like, is our cities dead because they could just be targets of mass terrorist attacks.

中文：有很多评论说，我们的城市是否已经死了，因为它们可能只是大规模恐怖袭击的目标。

Yeah. There was a lot going on. Yeah. So I don't want to hear from Gen Z that it wasn't like a big, it was a big deal. Fuck you. A huge number of people died. Yeah. And we saw it on tell- I mean we saw grainy footage of it. We didn't have highly realistic vertical video the way everybody has. This was everyone's experience was watching the footage of the actual planes.

中文：是的。当时发生了很多事情。是的。所以我不想听 Z 世代说这没什么大不了，这是件大事。去你的。很多人死了。是的。我们在电视上看到了——我是说我们看到了模糊的录像。我们没有现在每个人都有的高度逼真的竖屏视频。这是每个人的经历，就是观看那些真实飞机的录像。

60:00 - 70:00

Yeah, and just being like... Yeah.

中文：嗯，就是那种……嗯。

Right? Yeah. Yeah. So yeah, you still get the tingles when you you go and you listen to George Bush at the wreckage of 9-11. Oh, for sure. Being like, you know, he's like, he's giving an impromptu speech and people can't hear you. And he's like, Well, I hear you. Yeah, the country hears you nailed every aspect of that whole thing. And pretty soon, pretty soon, the people who brought these building downs are going to hear all of us. The policies that fall were not

中文：对吧？是啊。是啊。所以，是的，当你去听乔治·布什在 9·11 废墟上演讲时，你仍然会有那种激动的感觉。哦，当然了。就像，他在即兴演讲，人们听不到他的时候，他会说，我听到你了。是的，全国都听到你了。你把整个事情的每一个方面都说得很到位。很快，很快，那些让这些建筑倒塌的人会听到我们所有人的声音。导致失败的政策并非

The Leftovers is a podcast hosted by Robby Soave and Christian Britschgi. Yeah. He nailed that.

中文：《《末世余生》》是由 罗比 Soave 和 克里斯蒂安 Britschgi 主持的播客。是的。他说得很到位。

It's remarkable to know- He did also try to, he struck a, we will do something in response. We're not gonna take this lying down. But also he did kind of try to calm people. Yes. Stop people, like do not just attack Muslim people. He was very good about that.

中文：很了不起的是，他确实也试过，他出手了，我们会做出回应。我们不会坐视不理。但他也确实试着安抚别人。是的。阻止人们，不要只是攻击穆斯林。他在这方面做得非常好。

I didn't want to describe it overly responsible because again, the policies that followed were not terrible. Yeah. Very bad. But, uh, but no, in those, I mean, he quieted the mass panic. Yeah, I mean, imagine if Joe Biden or Donald Trump were president during a similar attack.

中文：我不想过于负责地描述它，因为随后实行的政策并不糟糕。是的，非常糟。但，呃，不过不，在那些情况下，我的意思是，他平息了大众的恐慌。是的，我的意思是，想象一下如果乔·拜登或唐纳德·特朗普在类似攻击发生时是总统会怎样。

I mean, Joe Biden just like couldn't do the role. No, he wouldn't. It would just be— He wouldn't know what had happened. Yeah, it would be embarrassing. And then— Can you imagine him just getting—what if that call came in the middle of the night that this just happened? Or at 4 p.m. They have to wait until one of his coherent hours. Yeah. Yeah. And then, I mean, come on, Trump would just like- Can't with him anymore. Yeah. I just can't. So, no, so that was actually, that is, I will give George Bush credit for that. I think he fulfilled that role really well. But yeah, as, I mean, we have a 25th anniversary issue of 9-11 for the magazine, which includes, you know, two of the people who wrote for it, includes their own memories of that day and just like how traumatic it is.

中文：我的意思是，乔·拜登根本无法胜任那个角色。不，他做不到。那简直会——他都不知道发生了什么事。是的，那会很尴尬。然后——你能想象如果半夜接到那个电话说这事发生了吗？或者下午四点。他们得等到他思路清晰的时间才能联系他。是啊。然后，我是说，拜托，特朗普根本受不了他了。是啊，我真受不了。所以，不，那实际上是，我得承认乔治·布什在那方面值得称赞。我觉得他很好地完成了那个角色。但是是的，我是说，我们为杂志做了 911 事件的 25 周年纪念期刊，其中包括参与写作的两个人，他们各自对那天的记忆，以及那种创伤感。

Robby Soave, Jr.: Thank you for joining us. You know, people, this becomes part of the 9-11 conspiracies, but, which is not true, but like, you know, a big, you know, George Bush comes into office with this cadre of people whose like, single, singular foreign policy goal is to go overthrow Saddam Hussein. Yeah. And immediately after 9-11, they're like, okay, how do we tie this to Iraq? Yeah. Right? And that's, that ended up being what happened. So, yep. I just, I flew over the weekend, so I was reminded of the permanent travel disruption bureaucracy that persists to this day, the TSA, for no reason whatsoever, with no additions to your safety, just the expense and the hassle and the fondling. I gotta pat down. Terrible. I don't mean to act like, oh my God, I am the true victim of 9-11 here. We're talking about some serious stuff. Bad things happened, whatever. But the cumulative effect of everyone having to go through that costs gazillion dollars

中文：罗比·索维（罗比 Soave Jr.）：感谢你加入我们。你知道，这会成为一部分 9·11 阴谋论的一部分，但这不是真的，不过，你知道，一个很大的情况是，乔治·布什带着一批人上台，他们唯一的外交政策目标就是去推翻萨达姆·侯赛因。是的。9·11 事件之后，他们立刻想，好的，我们怎么把这件事和伊拉克联系起来？对吧？结果，这最终就发生了。是的。我刚刚周末坐飞机，所以我想起了至今仍然存在的永久性旅行干扰机制——运输安全管理局（TSA），完全没有理由，不会增加任何安全保障，只增加了开销和麻烦，还有被摸索。要进行全身搜查，太糟糕了。我不是想表现得，哦天哪，我才是 9·11 的真正受害者。我们在谈论一些严肃的事情，发生了坏事，不管怎样。但每个人都必须经历这些的累积效应花费了巨额资金。

and is such a wasted amount of time. And it's undignified. It happened to me again. I went through the thing. I was coming back from Provincetown. I was in Provincetown for the weekend.

中文：而且这是如此浪费时间。而且这很不体面。这又发生在我身上。我经历了那件事。我刚从普罗文斯敦回来。我周末在普罗文斯敦。

Last thing you want is more fondling. Yeah, people are gonna say that's inconsistent, that, oh, now you object to it. Oh, but when the government does it, fuck you. But it's like, I set the thing off, and they're like, okay, we gotta patch it, and I'm like, I really, I did not wanna, this happens to me every time. Like, I just, I don't wanna be patted down again. I'm like, can I go back through it again, and we'll see if it doesn't, they're like, no, you've already gone through it, so now you have to have a pat down. I'm like, okay. Like, I actually, I resisted. I was like, no, I don't want to. I don't want to. And they're like, okay, I'm calling over my supervisor. So the supervisor comes over and I'm like, okay, now I'm like, okay, this is, I have wasted time. Whatever, just do it. Just get it over with. You know, it's in front of people. And he starts to give his little speech about why he has to do it and what he's gonna do. And I'm like, I don't need to hear his speech. I've heard it 10,000 times because this happens to me every time, just do it. He's like, every time you interrupt me, I have to restart the speech, sir. What a fucking bitch. Yeah, so I was not a, Feeling very positively inclined toward the flying experience. Yeah, it is. Everything that we got after 9-11 is a complete disaster. So TSA, everyone hates TSA.

中文：你最不想要的就是更多的爱抚。 是的，人们会说这是不一致的，哦，现在你反对它。 哦，但是当政府这么做的时候，操你妈的。 但这就像，我把事情搞砸了，他们就像，好吧，我们必须修补它，而我就像，我真的，我不想，这种事每次都发生在我身上。 就像，我只是，我不想再次被拍打。 我想，我可以再回顾一遍吗？我们看看是否不行，他们会说，不，你已经经历过了，所以现在你必须拍拍。 我想，好吧。 就像，我实际上，我抵抗了。 我当时想，不，我不想。 我不想。 他们说，好吧，我要打电话给我的主管。 所以主管过来了，我想，好吧，现在我想，好吧，这是，我浪费了时间。 不管怎样，就去做吧。 就这样结束吧。 你知道，它就在人们面前。 他开始发表简短的演讲，解释为什么他必须这样做以及他要做什么。 我想，我不需要听他的演讲。 我已经听过一万遍了，因为这种事每次都会发生在我身上，那就去做吧。 他就像，每次你打断我，我都必须重新开始演讲，先生。 真是个该死的婊子。 是的，所以我不是一个，非常积极地倾向于飞行体验。 是的，确实如此。 9·11 事件之后我们所经历的一切都是一场彻底的灾难。 所以 TSA，每个人都讨厌 TSA。

Minimal addition to safety. I hate them so much. Department of Homeland Security was supposed to be this. Literally, when they, for a couple of years ago, I wrote like a 20th anniversary of the founding of the Department of Homeland Security. And it's kind of laughable. Uh, because Homeland Security was basically an amalgam of all these different functions that already existed in the federal government, plus some new ones into a big new department, right? And, uh, the senators who were, like, voting on creating this at the time were like, this thing's gonna be so efficient, we might actually learn how to run the rest of the government better. And it's now it now houses like some of the least efficient agencies in government, FEMA, TSA, whatever, I mean, whatever else, ICE, you know, so that was a disaster on the home front. And then obviously, just like our foreign policy, just like, endless

中文：对安全的增加微乎其微。我真是太讨厌它们了。国土安全部本该就是这样的。字面上讲，几年前，我写过国土安全部成立二十周年的纪念文章。这实在有点可笑。呃，因为国土安全部基本上是把联邦政府中已经存在的各种职能，加上一些新的职能，合并成一个大部门，对吧？然后，当时投票支持成立这个部门的参议员们说，这个部门将会非常高效，我们甚至可能学会如何更好地管理政府的其他部门。而现在，它却囊括了一些政府中效率最低的机构，比如联邦应急管理署(FEMA)、交通安全管理局(TSA)等等，无论是什么机构，比如移民和海关执法局(ICE)，你知道的，所以这在国内是一个灾难。然后很显然，就像我们的外交政策一样，无休止。

Thanks for watching. Boom. I'll be fine. Thank God. That's what Trump said. Did you do anything fun for Labor Day? Just hung out at my friend's pool and got sunburned, as you can see. That's not from the red ants, that's the sun. Yeah, well, I'm using the sun to kill the ants. Okay, that's good. Yeah, faces are now battlefields. Yeah, I was in Provincetown, which I've never been to. It's beautiful. Massachusetts? Yeah, we had great weather. It was so nice.

中文：感谢观看。砰。我会没事的。感谢上帝。那是特朗普说的。劳动节你做了什么有趣的事吗？我只是待在朋友的泳池边晒太阳，你也能看到我晒伤了。那不是红蚂蚁咬的，是太阳晒的。是啊，我用阳光来消灭蚂蚁。好的，那很好。是啊，脸现在是战场。是的，我去了 Provincetown，我以前从没去过。那里很美。马萨诸塞州吗？是的，我们的天气很好。真是太舒服了。

I'm not really a New Englander person. I don't- I've never- I haven't visited there. It's one part of the country I've never been to. Yeah. I've been once or twice, but, um, and you take a ferry there, uh, and it was-

中文：我实际上不是一个新英格兰人。我没有——我从来没有——我没有去过那里。那是我从未去过的国家的一部分。嗯。我去过一两次，但是，嗯，你可以坐渡轮去那里，呃，那是……

Yeah. I'm going to start with the first question. The waves there, I thought like everyone on the boat was throwing up. It was crazy. Really? Wow. I asked people, I'm like, is it always like this? And the person next to me said, I come to Promise Town every summer for the last 20 years and it's never been anywhere like this. Wow. The water was so rocky. But at the end of it, and they had to cancel, we were going on a whale watching tour, but they had to cancel it because the conditions were so bad in terms of the waves. Again, sun shining, beautiful. But as we're getting there, giant whale leaps out of the ocean, splashes its tail. It was so awesome. It was cool. That's awesome. It was pretty cool. Did you get them? So I saw the whale. It was like, there she blows! Harpoons! There's the old sea bitch who took me leg. Right. Yeah. We went full Ahab. And then unfortunately, you know, Kharibdor eats four of the people on the- I told you to go around the whirlpool! I'm sad about winning a war, oh. We're doing the Odyssey. Right, yeah. Would you rather TSA or, you know,

中文：是的。 我将从第一个问题开始。 那里的海浪，我想船上的每个人都在呕吐。 太疯狂了。 真的吗？ 哇。 我问人们，我想，总是这样吗？ 旁边的人说，过去二十年来，我每年夏天都会来无极镇，从来没有去过这样的地方。 哇。 水是如此的岩石。 但最后，他们不得不取消，我们本来要去观鲸之旅，但他们不得不取消，因为海浪条件太糟糕了。 又是阳光灿烂，美丽极了。 但当我们到达那里时，巨鲸跃出海面，溅起尾巴。 太棒了。 很酷。 太棒了。 太酷了。 你收到了吗？ 于是我看到了鲸鱼。 就像，她在那里吹！ 鱼叉！ 那个老海母夺走了我的腿。 正确的。 是的。 我们去了完整的亚哈。 然后不幸的是，你知道，卡里卜多吃了四个人——我告诉过你绕着漩涡走！ 我为赢得一场战争而感到难过，哦。 我们正在做奥德赛。 对，是的。 您愿意选择 TSA 还是，您知道，

sitting through the- 10 years, you know.

中文：坐过了那十年，你知道的。

Tedious movie? Oh, going through the Odyssey. Would I rather TSA or sit through that tedious, Dark. Grim. Grim meditation on... Man, she's so based, Emily Wilson. She has a scheme in here. I know. I love her. I agree with her completely. It's made me like her so much. The idea of this very lib-coated woman with tattoos and just being like, I hate this because it didn't glorify the war the way the text does. It's just great. Shout out to you, Emily Wilson. It's pretty awesome. Yeah, it was a good trip. Speaking of fairies in a different context, I wanted to talk about the Ocarina of Time remake. This is my favorite video game, The Legend of Zelda, Ocarina of Time. There are fairies in it. Yeah, I understand. I get it. We finally got a trailer for it. This is my... Hype game of the decade, of the century. This is my favorite game ever and they've remade it. And I think it looks pretty good. And there's so many ways they could get this wrong and make me furious. In fact, the ways in which they could screw this up and make me hate Nintendo more than I've hated anything ever are so numerous, the path is laid with so many pitfalls, they should almost just not do it. Because if they wreck it, I will hate them. But so far, not everybody likes the way it looked. I liked the way it looked just fine. It sounded like a burned Anakin there. I will hate you. I hate you! The way he feels about sand, I will feel about this company if they get it wrong. And it just gets everywhere. Just like the fire ants. Just like the Fire Ants. Okay, well why don't you catch me up for someone who doesn't, hadn't played a lot of the Legend of Zelda games.

中文：乏味的电影？ 哦，正在经历奥德赛。 我宁愿选择运输安全管理局（TSA）还是坐着度过那个乏味的黑暗。 严峻。 严峻的沉思……天哪，她太有基础了，艾米丽·威尔逊。 她在这里有一个计划。 我知道。 我爱她。 我完全同意她的观点。 这让我非常喜欢她。 这个想法非常自由，有纹身的女人，我讨厌这个，因为它没有像文本那样美化战争。 太棒了。 向你大声喊叫，艾米丽·威尔逊。 太棒了。 是的，这是一次愉快的旅行。 说到不同背景下的仙女，我想谈谈《时之笛》的翻拍版。 这是我最喜欢的电子游戏，塞尔达传说，时之笛。 里面有仙女。 是的，我明白。 我得到它。 我们终于得到了它的预告片。 这是我的……十年、本世纪的炒作游戏。 这是我最喜欢的游戏，他们重新制作了它。 我认为它看起来很不错。 他们有很多方法可能会犯错并让我愤怒。 事实上，他们可以用很多方式把事情搞砸，让我比我讨厌的任何东西都更讨厌任天堂，这条道路上布满了很多陷阱，他们几乎不应该这样做。 因为如果他们破坏了它，我会恨他们。 但到目前为止，并不是每个人都喜欢它的外观。 我喜欢它看起来很好的样子。 听起来就像阿纳金被烧伤了。 我会恨你。 我恨你！ 他对沙子的感觉，如果他们弄错了，我也会对这家公司有感觉。 它无处不在。 就像火蚁一样。 就像火蚁一样。 好吧，你为什么不来找我，因为我没有玩过很多《塞尔达传说》游戏。

70:00 - 80:00

Like, what is the, like what is the actual gameplay? What are you doing here? Honestly, it's a puzzle solving game. That's what people miss.

中文：比如，这实际的游戏玩法是什么？你在这里做什么？说实话，这是一个解谜游戏。这就是人们所忽略的。

It's been described as an RPG, but it doesn't have the elements that we now associate with RPGs. Like leveling up your character. There's none of that.

中文：它被描述为一款角色扮演游戏，但它没有我们现在所认为的角色扮演游戏的要素。比如提升角色等级。完全没有这些。

You know, the improvements to the character are not, you know, an RPG, a turn-based combat, or some kind of combat system that reflects turn-based, or programming your character, you know, now if it's not turn-based, you might say, you almost AI it a little bit, like this is the actions your character takes if he gets into this situation, that kind of stuff, that I would say is broadly characteristic of RPGs, is not present in Zelda. That your character improves by, he gets a new weapon or a bow and arrow. But it's a puzzle solving game, basically. You go through dungeons, you look for keys to open doors, you push blocks into place. How do I get through this room? It has three blocks in it. I mean, it's a very kind of, it began as a very generic fantasy story, you know? Like, boy has to rescue princess from evil warlock type thing. It has developed a somewhat more sophisticated mythology. I wouldn't say it's among the most elaborate Mythological tales ever. There wasn't, you'll appreciate this. I saw this debate happening today. Maybe we can put this tweet on screen. Someone was pointing to, it's the 40th anniversary of the first Legend of Zelda game. There's a lot of Christian iconography in the instruction manual and the original game. Like Link has a cross on his shield. There's some, even in the, as late as the one for Super Nintendo, there's like a very, looks like a cathedral with stained glass. There's some stained glass cathedral temples. I don't know that it really, it does have a Trinity aspect to it in a couple different ways because Link and Zelda and the bad guy Ganondorf kind of form a triangle. And then the goddesses of Hyrule are three golden goddesses who created the world and left behind the Triforce, which is a wish granting or magical device that they're trying to obtain. It often, what I like about Zelda is it often incorporates elements of time travel. And as you know, time travel is my favorite storytelling device. Is it? I feel like it's the easiest way to have stories go off the rails. Yes, but if you do it right, do it a little bit and sparingly, it can be used very well. Okay. I love time travel and that's often an element of Zelda. Um, yeah, I don't know, man. So how could it go wrong? I like the vibes. How could this go wrong? Uh, by making it, number one, by making it look bad.

中文：你知道，角色的改进不是 RPG，回合制战斗，或者某种反映回合制的战斗系统，或者对你的角色进行编程，你知道，现在如果它不是回合制的，你可能会说，你几乎有点 AI 它，就像这是你的角色在进入这种情况时采取的行动，我想说的是 RPG 的广泛特征，这种东西在塞尔达中不存在。 当你的角色进步时，他会获得新武器或弓箭。 但这基本上是一个解谜游戏。 你穿过地牢，寻找钥匙打开门，将方块推到位。 我怎样才能穿过这个房间？ 它有三个块。 我的意思是，这是一个非常、非常普通的奇幻故事，你知道吗？ 就像，男孩必须从邪恶的术士手中救出公主。 它发展了一种更为复杂的神话。 我不会说这是有史以来最复杂的神话故事之一。 没有，你会感激这一点。 我今天看到了这场辩论。 也许我们可以把这条推文放到屏幕上。 有人指出，今天是第一款《塞尔达传说》游戏的 40 周年纪念日。 说明书和原版游戏中有很多基督教图像。 就像林克的盾牌上有一个十字架一样。 有一些，甚至在超级任天堂的那个中，也有一个非常，看起来像一座带有彩色玻璃的大教堂。 有一些彩色玻璃大教堂寺庙。 我不知道它是否真的，它确实以几种不同的方式具有三位一体的方面，因为林克和塞尔达以及坏人加农多夫形成了一个三角形。 海拉尔的女神是三位黄金女神，她们创造了世界并留下了三角力量，这是她们想要获得的一种实现愿望的魔法装置。 我喜欢《塞尔达》的原因通常是它经常融入时间旅行的元素。 如你所知，时间旅行是我最喜欢的讲故事的方式。 是吗？ 我觉得这是让故事脱轨的最简单方法。 是的，但如果你做得对，稍微做一点，少做一点，它就能很好地使用。 好的。 我喜欢时间旅行，这通常是塞尔达传说的一个元素。 嗯，是的，我不知道，伙计。 那么怎么会出错呢？ 我喜欢这种氛围。 这怎么会出错呢？ 呃，第一，让它看起来很糟糕。

Mm-hmm.

中文：嗯嗯。

Uh, I would hate that. I would hate if they made it, like, way too easy. Mm. Um, I would hate if they made it, like, less dark. I mean, the difficulty is part of the magic of the original game is that it kind of looks weird because it's in that... We're talking about the N64 game, Ocarina of Time. It's in that like uncanny valley where graphics have advanced enough for weird polygon looking things that are 3D,

中文：呃，我会讨厌那样的。我会讨厌如果他们做得太简单。嗯。呃，我会讨厌如果他们做得不那么黑暗。我是说，难度是原版游戏魔力的一部分，它看起来有点奇怪，因为它是在那个……我们说的是 N64 的游戏，《时之笛》。它在那种奇怪的领域里，图形已经进步到出现奇怪的多边形 3D 效果，

but not well enough where it looks normal.

中文：但还不到看起来正常的程度。

And that's kind of the charm and horror of the original game. So I don't want to like lose the spirit of that. Yeah. Because some of the stuff in the game was quite frightening if you played it when you were like nine. Like the, uh... The premise of the game is, you know, Link's gotta rescue the princess or whatever, and he starts as a kid, and like the first part of the game is very kind of generic fantasy, like he has to, there's a, the talking tree isn't feeling well, he has to help it. A giant fish swallowed the fish princess, and he has to help her. But then he ages seven years, and the world gets much darker, like the bad guy wins, and so now all these places are inhabited by demons and monsters, and it's very scary. But you can go back and forth. So you can become a kid again to like, Like at one point you learn what happened to the old windmill and then you go back in time as a kid and cause that to happen so that you can get into the windmill. Yeah. Stuff like that. Okay. That sounds fun. Okay, well, I hope it works out for you. It's just nostalgia. I loved it as a kid. Dude, it's-

中文：这就是原版游戏的魅力和恐怖之处。 所以我不想失去这种精神。 是的。 因为如果你九岁的时候玩游戏，游戏中的某些内容会非常可怕。 就像，呃......游戏的前提是，你知道，林克必须拯救公主或其他什么，他从一个孩子开始，就像游戏的第一部分是非常通用的幻想，就像他必须这样做一样，有一个，会说话的树感觉不舒服，他必须帮助它。 一条大鱼吞掉了鱼公主，他必须帮助她。 但后来他七岁了，世界变得更加黑暗，就像坏人获胜一样，所以现在所有这些地方都居住着恶魔和怪物，非常可怕。 但你可以来回。 所以你可以再次成为一个喜欢的孩子，就像在某一时刻你了解到旧风车发生了什么，然后你回到小时候并导致这种情况发生，这样你就可以进入风车。 是的。 诸如此类的事情。 好的。 听起来很有趣。 好吧，我希望它对你有用。 这只是怀旧之情。 我小时候很喜欢它。 老兄，这是——

Nostalgia is a powerful thing. Indeed, yeah. I used to like nostalgia a lot more, but-

中文：怀旧是一种强大的情感。确实，是的。我以前更喜欢怀旧，但——

Nostalgia isn't what it used to be. Really isn't. But I'm excited for this game and... There's always that nervousness, that anxiety when, you know, whether it's next movie in the series that you really like, a remake, you know, a band you like is releasing another album and you're excited but you're also nervous because how disappointed you'll be if they fuck it up. And in general, I hate the idea of doing things again that were perfect the first time.

中文：怀旧已经不再像以前那样了。真的不再是了。但是我对这款游戏感到兴奋，而且……总会有那种紧张感，那种焦虑感，你知道的，不管是你很喜欢的系列电影的下一部，是重拍版，你喜欢的乐队要发行另一张专辑，你既兴奋又紧张，因为如果他们搞砸了你会多失望。总的来说，我讨厌再次做那些第一次已经完美的事情的想法。

With video games, it's a little different because there were extreme technological limitations on it. And they can, the tech is way better and they can make it look better. Right, it's not quite like, I've complained that they're remaking Harry Potter when the first series of Harry Potter movies were very good movies. And it doesn't look any different. In fact, it looks a little bit worse to me from the trailer. It looks, it would get, can't.

中文：对于电子游戏来说，有一点不同，因为当时在技术上有极大的限制。现在技术要好得多，他们也可以让它看起来更好。对吧，并不完全像，我曾抱怨他们重拍《哈利·波特》，而第一系列的《哈利·波特》电影本身就是很好的电影。而且看起来并没有什么不同。事实上，从预告片来看，它在我看来有点更差。看起来，不能。

Pazuzu, Pazuzu strikes again. The demon who eats colors.

中文：帕祖祖，帕祖祖又来了。吞噬颜色的恶魔。

Delicious reds and greens for Pazuzu.

中文：为 Pazuzu 准备的美味红色和绿色食物。

Do we have a definitive explanation on why this is the aesthetic trend of our day? No, I've heard a really frustrating explanation, which is that because we're losing the institutional knowledge of how to not make it dark. Have you heard that one? That seems dumb though.

中文：我们有关于为什么这是我们这个时代的审美潮流的明确解释吗？没有，我听过一个非常令人沮丧的解释，说是因为我们正在失去不让它变暗的制度性知识。你听过这个说法吗？不过那似乎很蠢。

That seems wrong. Can we get the AI to brighten everything up?

中文：那似乎不对。我们能让人工智能把所有东西都调亮吗？

Hey AI, before you kill us all, could you, or trap us in pain simulators, could you just turn up the brightness on the TV a little bit? The TV says you've exceeded the brightness, or you can't make it any brighter. Can you work on that? Let's get it working on that. Oh, dude, talk about, this isn't really AI, but machines trying to do things for our own benefit that are just frustrating and annoying.

中文：嘿 AI，在你要杀了我们所有人之前，或者把我们困在痛苦模拟器里之前，你能不能先把电视的亮度调高一点？电视说你已经超过亮度了，或者你不能再调更亮。你能处理一下这个问题吗？我们先解决这个问题吧。哦，伙计，说实话，这不是真正的 AI，而是机器试图为我们做一些事情，结果只是令人沮丧和恼人。

Mm-hmm.

中文：嗯嗯。

Do you ever get the notification on your iPhone that's like, you gotta turn your music down? This is dangerous for your hearing? No. Yes. I would never gotten that. You get that because you listen to-

中文：你有没有在 iPhone 上收到过类似这样的通知，说你得把音乐调低？这对你的听力有危险？没有。是的。我从来没有收到过这个。你收到那个通知是因为你听的——

All the time. Yeah. It's very frustrating.

中文：一直都是。是的。这非常令人沮丧。

Just because A, it's like, don't tell me what to do, phone, right? And then secondly, and I can't find, maybe there's some setting to turn it off, but I can't find it. And secondly, it's a little fucking late for that, right? Why do you think it's so high to begin with? Man, I wish my husband's phone had that setting and it was turned down the volume on these brain numbing little K-pop reels you watch over and over again because your husband doesn't like having to hear them. I don't know. Do you have that setting on your phone? I do, it doesn't come up a lot, but I'm happy it's there. All right. You wanted to talk about the movie No Hard Feelings. Oh, yeah, yeah, sure. Okay, that's a little happier than 9-11. Yeah. So this is a comedy with Jennifer Lawrence.

中文：只是因为 A，就像，不要告诉我该做什么，手机，对吧？然后其次，我找不到，也许有某个设置可以关闭它，但我找不到。其次，这有点他妈的太晚了，对吧？你一开始为什么认为它这么高？天啊，我希望我先生的手机有那个设置，并且把你反复看那些让人脑袋发麻的小 K-pop 短视频的音量调低，因为你老公不想一直听那些。我不知道。你的手机上有那个设置吗？我有，虽然不常出现，但我很高兴它存在。好吧。你想聊电影《无所顾忌》。哦，是的，是的，当然。好吧，这比 9-11 稍微开心一点。是的。这是一部由詹妮弗·劳伦斯主演的喜剧。

She's funny. She is, she's just fun. She's actually, she's great in this movie. She's hilarious. Is this the one where she's with a much younger little boy? Yes, so the premise is, the premise is, Matthew Broderick is the dad, but it's like a pair of, you know, rich liberal helicopter parents who are worried that their son is, you know, a typical nebbish Gen Z shut-in. He's gonna go off to- Pajama boy. Yeah. Soy boy. Yeah, exactly, beta male. It's gonna go off to college without, you know, while still being... Without getting his...

中文：她很有趣。真的，她就是很有趣。实际上，她在这部电影里表现得很棒。她非常搞笑。这是她和一个年纪小得多的男孩一起的那部电影吗？是的，所以故事的前提是，前提是，马修·布罗德里克饰演爸爸，但他们就像一对富裕的自由派直升机父母，担心他们的儿子是典型的宅在家里的 Z 世代小子。他要去上大学时——睡衣男孩。是的，豆腐男孩。没错，典型的宅男。他要去上大学，而同时还是... 没有得到他的...

Yeah. Dick wet. Oh, wow. No, that's not the phrase. Yeah, well, I thought you were gonna come up with some sort of euphemism. I couldn't remember what the euphemism is. Yeah, so they basically- Wick. Yeah. Dip your wick, right? That's the phrase?

中文：是的。丁湿了。哦，哇。不，那不是那个说法。嗯，我以为你会想出某种委婉说法。我记不起那个委婉说法是什么。是的，所以他们基本上——木芯。是的。蘸一下你的木芯，对吧？就是这个说法吗？

Yeah, sure.

中文：好啊，当然。

What did I say? I just said, okay, go ahead. I mean, yeah, people say that, but I'm not going to. But yeah, so they're worried that he's too much of a shut-in, and so they want to arrange to get him laid before he goes off to college. And so they hired Jennifer Lawrence who, there's an interesting both NIMBY element and libertarian element to her motivations to do this. So she is like a 32-year-old, it's set in Montauk, which is, you know, Long Island, you know, vacation town, right?

中文：我说了什么？我只是说，好吧，继续。我是说，是的，人们会这么说，但我不会那么做。不过是的，所以他们担心他太宅了，所以他们想在他上大学前安排他发生性关系。所以他们雇了詹妮弗·劳伦斯，她做这件事的动机既有有趣的 NIMBY（自己后院不作恶）因素，也有自由主义因素。她大约 32 岁，故事发生在蒙托克，你知道的，长岛的度假小镇，对吧？

She's inherited a house. Some whales there. I don't think there are any whales in this movie. No, you're just the expert on whales now. Yeah.

中文：她继承了一栋房子。那里有一些鲸鱼。我觉得这部电影里没有鲸鱼。不，你现在只是鲸鱼方面的专家。是的。

I got the lamps to prove it. Go ahead. We'll see how much you like those fire ants tonight. But yeah, her motivations are she's, you know, has this, she has this house that she inherited from her mother. She's kind of like a failure to launch townie, right? But the property taxes are going up because all these rich people are moving into town. So she's got to find some way to pay the property taxes and she's going to do it by accepting these parents. Offer to seduce their son. And then she gets a car out of the deal and she can drive for Uber to pay the property taxes. It's, A, I'll say this movie is incredibly funny. I watched it alone, but I was like laughing out loud, which normally I don't do if I watch comedies by myself. Like there's... Just to spoil some of the great bits, there's one bit where they're in a limo, her and the kid she's trying to seduce, and he's pissed off at her, and so he grabs the liquor in the car, and she's like, oh, you're drinking now? And he's like, yep, I love vermouth. Oh, that's good. But yeah, the two things that I found politically relevant about it is, yeah, she's trying to get money to pay the property taxes. So the government is the real villain here. Total boomer luxury communism. Exactly.

中文：我拿了灯来证明这一点。 前进。 今晚我们就看看你有多喜欢那些火蚁。 但是，是的，她的动机是，你知道，她拥有这个，她拥有从她母亲那里继承的房子。 她有点像推出镇民失败，对吧？ 但财产税正在上涨，因为所有这些富人都搬进城里了。 所以她必须找到一些方法来缴纳财产税，而她将通过接受这些父母来做到这一点。 提出引诱他们的儿子。 然后她从交易中获得一辆车，并可以为 Uber 开车来支付财产税。 这是，A，我会说这部电影非常有趣。 我一个人看，但我就像笑出声来，通常我一个人看喜剧时不会这样。 就像……只是为了剧透一些精彩的片段，有一个片段，他们在一辆豪华轿车里，她和她试图引诱的孩子，他对她很生气，所以他抓起车里的酒，她说，哦，你现在在喝酒吗？ 他说，是的，我喜欢苦艾酒。 哦，那很好。 但是，是的，我发现与政治相关的两件事是，是的，她正试图筹集资金来缴纳财产税。 所以政府才是真正的恶棍。 完全是婴儿潮一代的奢华共产主义。 确切地。

Although actually if you're going to fight the boomer luxury communism, you would raise the property taxes.

中文：虽然实际上如果你要对抗婴儿潮一代的奢侈共产主义，你会提高财产税。

80:00 - 89:45

Sure.

中文：当然。

In a weird way, yeah, but she's always going off in the movie about how like, oh, it's these rich people moving here and pushing up the property values, which are pushing up my property taxes. And so there's kind of like a NIMBY element to it, which is very common in films I've written for them. But that's one interesting part of it. But then the other part that I found I really liked was that the movie's like a satire of Gen Z shut-ins, right?

中文：从某种奇怪的角度来说，是的，但她在电影里总是在抱怨这些事情，比如说，哦，是这些有钱人搬到这里来，提高了房产价值，从而推高了我的房产税。所以这其中有点像是“邻避”心理，这在我为他们写的电影里很常见。但这是其中一个有趣的部分。另一部分我觉得我真的很喜欢的是，这部电影就像是在讽刺 Z 世代宅在家里的人，对吧？

The, uh, uh, you know, the stereotype is they don't drink, they don't have sex, they just stay home alone on their phones, right? And there's a— They're soft. They're soft, right? Um, but it's—it's Gen Z shut-ins and then the helicopter parents who made them that way now realizing, oh, what have we done? And their plan for, you know, getting their bubble wrap children out of their shell is by doing even more, uh, helicopter-y interventions and also deceitful and all, uh, all-canned or disgusting ones, right? But, uh, no, there's a great, there's a great scene in the movie where, uh, she's trying to, you know, they, it's comedy, you know, classic romantic comedy. They have their big fight, right? And she's like, they're at some house party and she's like trying to find them in the house. Um, and she's like, uh, she's like busting into like the rooms and it's all just like kids sitting there on their phone. She's like, does no one have sex anymore?

中文：呃，你知道的，刻板印象是他们不喝酒，不发生性关系，就只是一个人呆在家里玩手机，对吧？而且——他们很软弱，对吧？嗯，但这是——这是 Z 世代宅男宅女，然后是让他们变成这样子的直升机父母现在意识到，哦，我们做了什么？他们让那些被包裹得像气泡膜的孩子走出自己的壳的计划，是通过进行更多的、呃、直升机式干预，还有欺骗性和那些千篇一律或者恶心的方式，对吧？但，呃，电影里有一个精彩的场景，呃，她试着，你知道的，他们，这是喜剧，你知道的，经典的浪漫喜剧。他们大吵一架，对吧？然后她就在某个家庭聚会上，试着在人群中找到他们。嗯，她就像——她闯进房间，房间里全是孩子坐在那里玩手机。她就问，有谁现在还发生性关系吗？

And then, uh, there's like, there's two high school guys, um, and, uh, you know, they're like, aren't you a little old to be here? And she's like, you know what, why don't you two go? Fuck each other. And they're like, wait, why would that be an insult? She's like, what? No, I'm not homophobic. And then everyone starts like filming her. It's hilarious. Yeah. It is like a haunted mansion of like horrible Gen Z tropes. So, yeah. That does make me want to watch it.

中文：然后，呃，有两个高中男生，嗯，然后，呃，你知道，他们就像，你不觉得你们有点老了，不该在这里吗？然后她就说，你知道吗，你们两个为什么不去互相操一下呢？然后他们就说，等等，这怎么会是侮辱？她说，什么？不，我不是恐同。然后每个人都开始拍她的视频。太搞笑了。是的。它就像一个充满可怕的 Z 世代套路的鬼屋。是的，这确实让我想去看。

I saw that. I remember seeing the trailer for it or some clips of it.

中文：我看到了。我记得看过它的预告片或一些片段。

It looked funny. There was some like. I don't know how, you know, how outrages get manufactured. There was some like outrage about it, or it's like, he was 26, that kind of thing. Like how dare the age gap, age gap police out there.

中文：看起来很滑稽。有点像。我不知道，你懂的，这种愤怒是怎么产生的。对这件事有些愤怒，或者就是，他才 26 岁，类似这样的事情。就像那些年龄差距的警察，怎么敢有这样的年龄差距一样。

Right. But also it's like, this is not like presented as a positive thing that they're doing. Right. So, you know, but whatever. Yicky, sex. Don't even get me started. No good. Well, that's a good movie recommendation. Yeah, okay. Watch it at home. You got any movie recommendations? Um... No, I just played, uh... I played my Nintendo Switch on the plane ride to Provincetown. I haven't watched...

中文：对。但也就是说，这并不是被呈现为他们在做一件积极的事情。对。所以，你知道，但无所谓。恶心，性。别让我开始说。不好。嗯，那是个不错的电影推荐。好的，在家里看看吧。你有什么电影推荐吗？嗯……没有，我只是玩了，呃……我在去普罗文斯敦的飞机上玩了我的任天堂 Switch。我还没看……

Have not watched any, uh... Just getting through Lost, almost done. But yeah, I wanna... Oh yeah, what? Oh, I was gonna say, speaking of plane rides. Yeah. I watched the- Speaking of plane rides could be I was on a plane ride and that's what Lost is about. But yeah, go ahead. Yeah.

中文：没看过任何，呃……只是正在看《迷失》，差不多快看完了。但嗯，我想……哦对，什么？哦，我是想说，说到坐飞机。是的。我看了——说到坐飞机，可能我是说我坐飞机的时候，那就是《迷失》的剧情。但嗯，继续。是的。

Okay.

中文：好的。

Well, this is a similar theme, similar thing. I watched the, do you know the Left Behind kind of franchise? Like evangelical rapture. Yeah. So Nick Cage stars in like the 2014 reboot of the series.

中文：嗯，这是一个类似的主题，类似的东西。我看过，你知道《末日之战》系列吗？就像福音派的被提一样。是的。所以尼克·凯奇主演了 2014 年系列的重启版。

And I watched that with a friend recently. You're watching a lot of unusual movies.

中文：我最近和一个朋友一起看了那个。你看了很多不寻常的电影。

Yeah, I'm trying to broaden my scope, you know? And this one was, it has a 1.5 on Letterboxd. I don't think that's quite fair. I don't know how other people put their stars, right? It's out of five, right? Yeah, out of five. It was watchable, right? Like there is a coherent plot here, right? It was not in any way good. What's the most interesting thing about the movie? What a temptress. Yeah, totally, right? Well, they both get left behind because boom, the rapture happens. And so the small minority of Christians get taken up into heaven and then society completely falls apart for no like quite explicable reason. Yeah, so it's not immediately obvious what percentage of the population is raptured, but it's a small minority, right? And so you'd understand there would be some disruption if the driver of the car is a Christian and then it's raptured and so the car crashes. But he loses contact with air traffic control.

中文：是的，我正在尝试拓宽我的视野，你懂吗？而这部电影，它在 Letterboxd 上的评分是 1.5。我觉得那不太公平。我不知道其他人是怎么打星的，对吧？是满分五颗星，对吧？是的，满分五颗星。可以看，对吧？剧情还是连贯的，对吧？绝对不算好。电影里最有趣的是什么？那个诱惑者。是的，完全正确，对吧？他们两个都被留下来了，因为突然，空中被提发生了。所以少数基督徒被带到天堂，然后社会毫无明显原因地彻底崩溃。是的，所以被提的人口比例不立即明显，但这是少数，对吧？所以你可以理解，如果汽车司机是基督徒然后被提，汽车就会出事，那么会造成一些混乱。但他失去了与空中交通管制的联系。

And it's like, you would still, okay, if one out of 10 air traffic controllers disappears, the system would still function, right?

中文：这就像，你还是会……好吧，如果十个空中交通管制员中有一个消失了，系统还是能运作，对吗？

It would take a while for the, you know, like actual ripple effects of having 10% fewer people, 5% fewer people to be felt. Yeah, there's a great scene right at the end of the movie where he's a pilot, people get raptured, and so it's all about them trying to like land the plane in this, you know, chaos. And they do eventually land it. And then it's like, you know, this is just the beginning. And he lands it at like JFK and they look out at the New York skyline and just like everything is on fire. Oh my God. Why would that happen?

中文：真正感受到人口减少 10%、5% 所带来的连锁反应需要一段时间。是的，电影结尾有一个很棒的场景，他是飞行员，人们被提走了，所以整个情节都是他们在这种混乱中尝试着降落飞机。最终他们确实降落了。然后就像是，这只是个开始。他把飞机降落在 JFK 机场，他们望向纽约天际线，看到那里一切都在燃烧。天哪，为什么会这样呢？

Yeah, that's what's so great about, I love The Leftovers series on HBO, which is actually by one of the guys who did Lost, Damon Lindelof, and it's a fantastic three season series, so good, similar premise, it's based on a book, where something like 10% of the population is, but just, they don't know, it's not like explained why it happens. Yeah. They just disappear. Yeah. They just vanish into thin air. They're there one moment and then they're gone. And so, yes, then there's the mild dysfunction of, if that happened to the guy driving your taxi, Right. You're screwed. But all of the dysfunction is generated from people

中文：是啊，这就是它如此棒的原因，我很喜欢 HBO 的《消失的爱人》系列，实际上是由参与过《迷失》的一个人创作的，Damon Lindelof，它是一部精彩的三季系列，非常棒，情节类似，它是根据一本书改编的，书中大约有 10%的人口突然消失，但他们自己也不知道，不像会解释为什么会发生这种事。是的，他们就这样消失了。是的，他们就凭空消失了。他们一会儿还在，下一刻就消失了。所以，是的，当你遇到轻微的功能失调时，比如说，这件事发生在开你出租车的那个人身上，对吧。你就完蛋了。但所有的功能失调都是由人引起的。

just being, having no explanation for why this happened. Yeah. And being, So, we're talking about society being a little bit like a 9-11, like, society is traumatized from people just suddenly disappearing and there being no explanation whatsoever. So, there's like a lot of cults spring up because people are searching for an answer to this from the, that is mystical because there's no scientifically available answer, but the cults are also like, So, what's the deal with the $5,000 dividend proposal? So, what's the deal with the $5,000 dividend proposal? Rememberances and everything, they're just, because they're trying to shock you into attacking them. It's very, it makes sense in the context of the show. But it's a kind of form of emotional terrorism that they're engaged in by unwell people. And you hate them. And by the end, you understand the characters who then retaliate and attack and kill them. You sympathize with them so much. It's a great, great, great show. But yes, the conflict comes from not because society is collapsing, but because we search for meaning in our lives and when we're deprived of meaning, or when you're deprived of the opportunity to say goodbye to someone, right? That's a big thing that people, if you're dead, you're dead. But the thing is people don't, Are these people dead? Where are they? What happened? It's a really good one. Okay, that sounds really good. I'll check it out. Yeah, I mean, so you can understand obviously why this would be a traumatic event

中文：只是存在，没有解释为什么会发生这种情况。 是的。 所以，我们谈论的社会有点像 9-11，就像，社会因人们突然消失而没有任何解释而受到创伤。 所以，有很多邪教涌现，因为人们正在寻找这个问题的答案，这是神秘的，因为没有科学上可用的答案，但邪教也喜欢，那么，5,000 美元股息提案是怎么回事？ 那么，5000 美元股息提议是怎么回事呢？ 回忆和一切，它们只是因为它们试图让你震惊，从而攻击它们。 这在节目的背景下非常有意义。 但这是一种由身体不适的人参与的情绪恐怖主义。 而你讨厌他们。 到最后，你就会了解那些随后报复、攻击并杀死他们的角色。 你非常同情他们。 这是一场伟大、伟大、伟大的演出。 但是，是的，冲突并不是因为社会正在崩溃，而是因为我们在生活中寻找意义，当我们被剥夺了意义，或者当你被剥夺了与某人说再见的机会时，对吗？ 这是一件大事，人们如果你死了，你就死了。 但问题是人们不知道，这些人死了吗？ 他们在哪里？ 发生了什么？ 这真是一件好事。 好吧，听起来确实不错。 我会检查一下。 是的，我的意思是，所以你可以清楚地理解为什么这会是一个创伤事件

and a destabilizing one, the rapture. But the whole premise is that it's a small minority of people that disappear. And then in the movie, immediate societal chaos breaks out. Like Nick Cage's daughter is in the mall with her little brother when the rapture happens and he disappears. It's actually kind of funny because they're just like clothes crumpled to the ground.

中文：而且这是一个不稳定的事件，末日被提。但整个前提是只有少数人会消失。在电影中，随之而来的是立刻的社会混乱。例如尼克·凯奇的女儿和她的小弟弟在商场里，当末日被提发生时，他消失了。这其实有点好笑，因为他们只是像衣服一样垂在地上。

Oh, the clothes crumple. Right. But then immediately they just start like looting the mall. It's like, okay. Yeah. There is another funny subplot where, you know, they're on the plane and there's like some characters on the plane, right? And one of them is a Muslim guy and everyone's like, What did you do? And then there's like some like jail-hardened midget on the plane. Obviously. And some like British heiress who is just like doing heroin in the bathroom.

中文：哦，衣服都皱了。右。但他们立刻开始抢劫商场。就像，好吧。是的。还有一个有趣的副线，你知道，他们在飞机上，飞机上有一些角色，对吧？其中一个是穆斯林，大家都在问，你干了什么？然后还有一些坐过牢的侏儒在飞机上。显然。还有一个英国女继承人，在厕所里吸海洛因。

Some stock characters. Yeah, but it's actually the British drug addict is probably the most hilarious character because like there's all this chaos happening on the plane and she's always just in like the back room shots with her like, or background shots with the sunglasses on just like high out of her mind.

中文：一些固定角色。是的，但实际上，英国的毒瘾者可能是最搞笑的角色，因为飞机上发生了所有这些混乱，而她总是出现在后室镜头里，或者背景镜头里戴着太阳镜，看起来完全嗨翻了。

Oh, heroin. So I don't know if I could recommend that, but two stars. Two stars. That's generous.

中文：哦，海洛因。我不确定是否能推荐那个，但给两颗星。两颗星。那算是很大方了。

It's watchable enough and it's bad enough that you'll get joy from seeing how bad it is. Two stars, but this is a system where we can give half stars.

中文：它足够值得一看，而且烂到会让你从它的糟糕中获得乐趣。两颗星，但这是一个可以给半颗星的系统。

Yeah. Why have a five star system if you can give half stars? Right, it should just be ten. Yeah, totally. That's my hot take of the day. All right, let's leave it there. Okay. We gotta move on. Oh, I might get raptured here, so. Gone or replaced by AI or eaten by fire ants. Yeah. One of those things. The Catholics would be left behind in the rapture, right?

中文：是啊。如果可以给半颗星，为什么还要有五星系统呢？对吧，干脆就十颗星算了。是的，完全同意。这就是我今天的热门观点。好了，就说到这里吧。好的，我们得继续。哦，我可能会被提走，所以。要么消失，要么被 AI 替代，或者被火蚂蚁吃掉。是的，可能是这些情况之一。在被提的时候，天主教徒会被留下来，对吧？

This is a, we'd be idol-ish. Why? Well, cause we're idol worshipers, right? Oh, right. Well, and we're waiting for the second coming of Jesus Christ. Yeah, we don't believe in the rapture. No, no, no, no, no, no. Absolutely not. All right. And if you do, you're a heathen. See you next time.

中文：这是一个，我们会有点偶像化。为什么？嗯，因为我们是偶像崇拜者，对吧？哦，对了。嗯，而且我们在等待耶稣基督的第二次降临。是的，我们不相信被提。不是，不，不，不，不，绝对不。好吧。如果你相信，你就是异教徒。下次见。