交付得更多，就一定更有用吗：Claire Vo 谈为什么要写最后一份路线图｜Lenny's Podcast

她要说的是反直觉的那一半

先弄明白几个词

她的自白：交付得比任何时候都多，但想不出好点子了

三个陷阱

「路线图零」

替代方案：先建信念，再定义什么能证明它错了

明年是野心的游戏

这一场值不值得看

人物背景与外部对照

完整中英双语逐字转录稿

00:00 - 10:00

Good morning everyone. How's it going? Everybody excited to be here? Okay, for those of you that were in the Somebody texted me, they called it the How I AI sauna last night, the party we had. I told you all you need to hype me up this morning because I was out way past my bedtime, which is 8:15. I've got a little baby. Um but I am here prepared to do the thing that I do. So last year, last year I came here and I said product management is dead. I said that because as a product leader I like to make these big grand statements and then be proved completely wrong in the market.

中文：大家早上好。大家怎么样？每个人都很兴奋今天能在这里吗？好吧，对于那些昨天参加了有人给我发信息，他们说是‘How I AI 桑拿’的派对的朋友们，我告诉过你们，今天早上你们得给我打气，因为我昨晚熬得很晚，远远超过了我的就寝时间，晚上 8:15。我有一个小宝宝。嗯，但我已经准备好来做我该做的事情了。所以上一年，去年我来这里时，我说产品管理已经死了。我这么说是因为作为一名产品领导者，我喜欢发表这些宏大的声明，然后让市场完全推翻它们。

Just keeps me really honest. So product management is obviously not dead. There are so many amazing product leaders, product managers, product executives here in this room. But who's with me that between the last time we had Lenny's summit and now product management is completely different. Okay, got some hands. It's really different. And so last year I came for PMS that didn't work. Let's do it again. This year I'm coming for the road map. The Yeah, you're you're welcome. OKRs next and then my job is over. So the road map has been the defining artifact of our industry, of our careers.

中文：只是让我保持真正的诚实。所以产品管理显然没有消失。这里有这么多了不起的产品领导者、产品经理、产品高管。但有谁和我一样，认为自从上次我们举行莱尼峰会以来，产品管理已经完全不同了？好，有举手的。确实很不同。所以去年我来是针对不奏效的 PMS。今年我来是针对路线图的。是的，你们不客气。下一步是 OKR，然后我的工作就完成了。所以路线图一直是我们行业、我们职业生涯中的决定性工件。

It's supposed to tell us and our teams where we're going, what's next, and what matters. And I have been in product for over two decades. And I believe, fingers crossed, a lot of us in our room in this room are about to write our last road map. Before I go into why I think that, I want to tell you all I have a confession. I am shipping more than ever. I have access to the most intelligent coding agents in the world. I have the best developer tools anybody can ask for. I have super smart models. I've got customer context via API, via CLI, via MCP.

中文：它应该告诉我们和我们的团队我们要去哪里、接下来做什么以及什么最重要。而我已经从事产品工作二十多年了。我相信，碰运气的话，我们在座的很多人可能即将写下我们的最后一份路线图。在我讲为什么会这么认为之前，我想告诉大家一个忏悔。我现在的发布比以往任何时候都多。我可以使用世界上最智能的编程代理。我拥有任何人都能要求的最佳开发工具。我有超级智能的模型。我通过 API、CLI、MCP 获取客户背景信息。

all the letters I have. I write so many skills. And y'all, I counted yesterday. I have 40 Grok bots. I can build almost anything. And here is my true true confession. I am out of good ideas, y'all. I'm like straight up out of good ideas of things to build. I'm out. I can build. I just don't think any of it's a good idea. So, and and I'm not saying I don't have plausible requests. It's not that I'm saying I don't have things I could build. It's just that execution has outrun my ability to discover meaningful, meaty, my favorite word, commercializable products in the market.

中文：我所有的信件。我写了很多技能。各位，我昨天数了一下。我有 40 个 Grock 机器人。我几乎可以建造任何东西。这里是我真正的真实告白。我已经没有好点子了，各位。我真的已经没有好点子去建造东西了。我已经没有了。我可以建造，但我觉得没有任何一个是好主意。而且，我不是说我没有合理的请求，也不是说我没有可以建造的东西。只是执行的速度已经超过了我发现有意义、有分量、我最喜欢的词——可商业化产品的能力。

And this is a very different situation that I have been in than before. You know, it used to be that engineering capacity was the scarce resource. That was like I mean that's kind of why we exist honestly is like engineering capacity used to be the really scarce resource. We had way more ideas than people and we had way more demand than our ability to deliver against that demand. And the product manager, the products leaders job was to prioritize all those ideas, sequence them, and then spend like all our time in meetings and in Slack and in spreadsheets saying no.

中文：这是我以前经历过的情况非常不同的情况。你知道，以前工程能力是稀缺资源。老实说，这也是我们存在的原因之一，因为以前工程能力真的是非常稀缺的资源。我们有的想法远远多于人手，也有的需求远远超过我们满足这些需求的能力。而产品经理和产品领导的工作就是给所有这些想法排优先级、排序，然后把所有时间都花在开会、用 Slack 沟通和在电子表格上说“不”。

Saying no. PMs should say no more. we should have cut lines. It was like very aggressive like here's my cut line for the quarter. This is my priority list. This is my stack rank. And while the PM's job was to say no, it felt like engineering's job was to say like no, not like that. Not with all those features, not with perfect architecture. We can only do this much. And then it seemed like design's job was say to like no, wait for us, like please. And so everybody's like just constrained on this like precious engineering capacity.

中文：说不。产品经理应该更多地说不。我们本该划定优先顺序。那种感觉非常激进，就像这是我这个季度的优先顺序列表，这是我的重点清单，这是我的堆叠排名。而当产品经理的工作是说不时，似乎工程师的工作是说，不，不是那样，不需要所有这些功能，不需要完美的架构，我们只能做到这么多。然后似乎设计师的工作是说，不，等等我们，拜托。所以每个人都被这种宝贵的工程能力所束缚。

And so things got narrow narrow narrowed down till you only shipped a little bit of your road map. And now I feel like I have more [clears throat] execution capacity than like true conviction about what to build. So my bottleneck has moved from like building what what can I build to believing like what do I believe is actually worth building. And look, I am like the biggest token maxer on the planet. I'm like PR's up 3x. Like do it all. Ship, ship, ship. Agents everywhere. I don't need a PM. I don't need any specs.

中文：所以事情逐渐缩小缩小缩小，直到你只发布了你路线图的一小部分。现在我感觉我有更多的执行能力，但对该做什么真正的信念却不多。所以我的瓶颈已经从‘我能建什么’变成了‘我认为什么真的值得建’。你看，我几乎是地球上最大的代币最大化者。我像公关一样增长了 3 倍。什么都做。发布，发布，发布。各处都是代理。我不需要产品经理。我不需要任何规格说明。

But like I think this gap between our building capacity and like true in our heart of hearts conviction like does any of this code matter is a much bigger problem than any of us are willing to admit. I think we're all getting a lot of pressure from the board, from the timeline, from each other, from our teams, from our bosses to move faster, to get leverage with AI, to like really lean in and show we're AI native. We can build in this new way. Claire said product management is dead. She showed all these scary circles.

中文：但是我觉得我们在建设能力与内心深处真正信念之间的这种差距，比如这些代码是否重要，这个问题比我们任何人愿意承认的都要大得多。我觉得我们都承受着来自董事会、时间表、彼此、团队、老板的很大压力，要加快速度，利用人工智能，实现真正的 AI 本地化。我们可以用这种新方式去构建。克莱尔说产品管理已经死了。她展示了所有这些可怕的循环图。

She said like ship to the moon. Do it, do it, do it. But like I do think none of us are I know this is a question I asked one who's who's shipping more than ever in the last year at their companies whose revenue is going up proportionate with the amount of PRs like that's the fundamental problem we're facing here and so I'm going to tell a story and like bring this home for you this like I have no good ideas and I don't know if they matter. Um so I had this idea for this thing called the product graph for ChatPRD.

中文：她说就像把船送到月球一样。去做，去做，去做。但我确实觉得我们中没人……我知道这是我问过的问题之一：在过去一年里谁在他们的公司里交付更多，收入是否与 PR 数量成比例增长。这就是我们面临的根本问题。所以我要讲一个故事，让你理解，我没有好主意，也不知道它们是否重要。嗯，所以我有一个关于叫做产品图的东西的想法，用于聊天 PRD。

It's like a It's a real product for product managers idea and it's not special because everybody's done it. But it's like we're going to suck in everything a company knows about customers, about what you're working on, blah blah blah blah blah. We're going to parse it. We're going to like slap, you know, opus on it and then it's all going to be available through agents and it's going to be awesome. It's going to make you be able to make these decisions better and build better products and of course write better PRDs.

中文：这就像是一个真正针对产品经理的产品想法，它本身并不特别，因为每个人都做过类似的东西。但它就像是我们将吸收公司关于客户的所有知识，关于你正在做的工作，等等等等。我们将解析它，我们会把它弄上 Opus，然后所有这些信息都可以通过代理访问，这将非常棒。它会让你能够更好地做出决策，打造更好的产品，当然也能写出更好的产品需求文档（PRD）。

And so I built it. I built this like insights engine. I built this like very fancy semantic product graph. It like generates this auto wiki. Agents can consume it. It was like almost a oneshot. Not quite, but it was a pretty close oneshot. It worked. It looks pretty good. It was like feature forfeature matching competitors in the market. And I kind of just like every time I would build it, I would be like, "This just belongs in the trash. It belongs in the trash. All this work, all this amazing product belongs in the trash."

中文：所以我建了它。我建了这个像洞察引擎一样的东西。我建了这个像非常高级的语义产品图一样的东西。它会生成这个自动维基。代理可以使用它。它几乎像一次性完成的，不完全，但非常接近一次性完成。它有效。看起来相当不错。它像是市场上特征对特征匹配竞争对手的功能。每次我建它的时候，我都会想，‘这东西应该扔进垃圾桶。应该扔进垃圾桶。所有的工作，所有这些惊人的产品都应该扔进垃圾桶。’

And why? Because to me it was competitive, it wasn't differentiated. And so, you know, even though I had built this thing that like obviously had a market, people would probably want it, customers said it was interesting, like in my core, I felt like it wasn't worth my customers attention. I like the ROI was really shaky to me. I wasn't convinced on the interface. I was like, should this it it still had a web interface. I was like, should it be agent first? Is this the right thing? I wanted to build something surprising that competitors couldn't even imagine.

中文：为什么呢？因为对我来说它有竞争力，但并没有差异化。所以，你知道，尽管我已经建立了这个显然有市场的东西，人们可能会想要它，客户也说它很有趣，但在我的内心深处，我觉得它不值得客户的注意。对我来说投资回报真的很不稳定。我对界面不太有信心。我在想，它现在还有一个网页界面。我在想，它应该先以代理为主吗？这真的是正确的事吗？我想要打造一些让竞争对手都无法想象的惊喜产品。

And my big problem was that these tokens and this like road map that I had executed my bet, but it didn't really test or validate or strengthen my conviction. Meanwhile, I'm sitting on all this kind of like code to nowhere. I kept shipping more than ever. So, customer fixes were like automated. They would come in, they go to like one of my bots, and then they get fixed. Goals were like obliterating tech debt. I mean, I re rearchite rearchitected ChatPRD 70 times because I could. Um, we stopped tracking issues.

中文：我的大问题是，这些代币和这个我已经执行过的路线图，我下注了，但它并没有真正测试、验证或增强我的信念。同时，我坐拥所有这些毫无去向的代码。我不停地发布，比以往任何时候都多。因此，客户修复几乎是自动化的，它们会出现，然后交给我的一个机器人，然后就被修复了。目标是消灭技术债务。我的意思是，我重新架构了聊天系统的纯净性 70 次，因为我可以。嗯，我们不再跟踪问题了。

We're like, we don't need issue tracking anymore. We're just going to ship PRs. This AI factory like manifested and started running itself. It did the thing that we all want it to do. It's magical. And here's the secret. I'm not sure any of it mattered. Like I'm not yet convinced that any of that mattered. And that really got me thinking. It got me thinking about what is product management? What is the purpose of building software? How do we make decisions? How do we prioritize? How do we allocate all these tokens?

中文：我们就像，不再需要问题跟踪了。我们只是直接发布 PR。这家人工智能工厂仿佛自然而然地出现并开始自行运作。它完成了我们所有人希望它做的事情。这简直是魔法。这里有个秘密。我不确定这一切是否重要。我还没有被说服认为这一切有多重要。这真的让我开始思考。它让我思考什么是产品管理？构建软件的目的是什么？我们如何做出决策？我们如何确定优先级？我们如何分配所有这些代币？

And I just kept going back to this idea of the road map. road maps made sense under engineering scarcity. They like laid out your strategy. They told you what features were you going to build. We had this thing called effort which was like more than me like voice noting you know Devon saying can you please build this and we thought a lot about sequencing and milestones and MVPs and scarcity helped us theoretically let's be honest it helped us theoretically filter out our bad ideas because the bottom of the list just never shipped.

中文：我只是不断回到路线图这个想法。在工程稀缺的情况下，路线图是有意义的。它们像是为你规划了策略，告诉你将要开发哪些功能。我们有一个叫做努力的东西，这不仅仅是指我，比如语音留言，你知道的，Devon 说‘你能不能做这个’，我们在排序、里程碑和最小可行产品（MVP）上思考了很多，稀缺性在理论上帮助了我们——坦率地说，它在理论上帮助我们筛选掉了糟糕的想法，因为列表底部的东西根本就不会发布。

It never could. There were not enough engineers. There was not enough conviction across the organization. and said this like below the cut that's what we called it below the cut line never shipped and now we can ship all our bad ideas like congratulations to us cheap execution I think still needs judgment and I think we're seeing this moment where the road map plus like limitless or feeling like limitless execution capacity is creating three traps that I want to warn you about the first is the backlog track. So this is if you have a backlog, AI will build it.

中文：它从来做不到。工程师不够。整个组织的信念也不够。并且像下面截断线那样说，我们称之为截断线下的东西从未发布，现在我们可以发布所有糟糕的想法，像是向我们自己祝贺一样，廉价的执行我认为仍然需要判断力。我认为我们正在经历这样一个时刻，道路图加上无尽的或感觉上无限的执行能力正在制造三个陷阱，我想提醒你注意。第一个是待办事项积压陷阱。所以，如果你有待办事项积压，人工智能会去构建它。

10:00 - 20:00

They will build every single thing. It will build every single thing on your list. And so I hear a lot about like, you know, I we're burned through our backlog. It's because all you have to do is slashgo build the backlog and it gets done. But the problem is clearing out requests or ideas does not mean meaningful progress against your business or even meaningful progress against a customer problem. The second thing is the parity trap. This is something I really felt in that story about the product graph. All your competitors are copying each other and they all are talking to the same customers and they're all sucking in the same insights and they're all arriving at the same obvious conclusion and building the same obvious product with the same obvious like run the taste skill.

中文：他们会建造每一件东西。它会建造你清单上的每一件东西。所以我听到很多人说，比如，你知道，我们已经清空了我们的待办事项。这只是因为你所要做的就是 slashgo 去处理待办事项，它就会完成。但问题是，清理请求或想法并不意味着对你的业务有实质性的进展，甚至不意味着对客户问题的实质性进展。第二个是平价陷阱。这是我在关于产品图的故事中真正感受到的。你所有的竞争对手都在互相模仿，他们都在与相同的客户交流，都在吸收相同的洞察力，都得出了相同的显而易见的结论，并在构建相同的显而易见的产品，带着相同的显而易见的执行技能。

Run impeccable. Run whatever. Make it look good. Get rid of the m dashes. Get rid of the borders. Like we're all doing Can you tell I took max? Yeah. So we're all doing the exact same thing. And so this like parody trap where we used to have this like really interesting dynamic with competitors now it feels like it's evening out and again like this question about what Moes are and what differentiators are is a big one in my mind. And then the final kind of trap I see is the churn trap which is we ship something, we see noise and pick up or not because we can always ship something else, we abandon it and then we never really learn or compound on top of what we're shipping.

中文：运行完美。随便运行什么。让它看起来不错。去掉破折号。去掉边框。就像我们都在做的那样。你能看出我吃了 max 吗？是的。所以我们都在做完全相同的事情。然后这种像是模仿陷阱的情况，以前我们和竞争对手有非常有趣的动态，现在感觉正在平衡，再加上关于 Moes 是什么以及差异化因素是什么的问题，在我心中是一个很大的问题。然后我看到的最后一种陷阱是流失陷阱，我们发布一些东西，然后看到一些波动或提升，不管怎样，因为我们总是可以发布别的东西，我们就放弃它，然后我们实际上从未真正学习或在我们发布的内容上进行积累。

And so all of these things from the inside feel very productive. Like my backlog's going down, my competitive features are going up. like we're shipping more than ever, but what I think this does is it just like accelerates our path to mid. And that's the thing I want to warn you about. And so this brings me to something that I'm really observing, which is this concept of road map zero. I don't mean like we've gone through the road map, although some people truly have road map zero, nothing on the road map anymore.

中文：所以从内部来看，所有这些事情都感觉非常有成效。就像我的待办事项在减少，我的竞争性功能在增加。我们出货比以往任何时候都多，但我认为这只是加快了我们走向中期的路径。这就是我想提醒大家的事情。这让我想到我最近在观察的一个现象，就是所谓的零路线图。我不是说我们已经完成了路线图，虽然有些人确实达到了零路线图，路线图上再也没有任何东西了。

What I mean is that every visible feature becomes both plausible and buildable. You don't have like an empty backlog. That's not what I'm talking about. It's just like everything on your backlog you can kind of do. And when everything on your backlog you can kind of do, what is the point of the backlog? I think buildability and effort stop being like this meaningful proxy for what matters and prioritization again kind of like why PMs exist as we've practiced it I think stops being strategy right like we've been doing these like rice prioritizations but when like many of those letters mean nothing anymore especially effort like why are we still pretending like prioritization is the right way to think about our products and this is why I think you know, road maps are over.

中文：我的意思是，每一个可见的特性都变得既可行又可构建。你不会有空的待办事项清单。我不是在说这个。就像你待办事项清单上的每一项，你都能在某种程度上去做。当你待办事项清单上的每一项你都能够做，那么待办事项清单还有意义吗？我认为可构建性和投入不再像之前那样是判断重要性和优先级的有意义指标，就像我们实践中的产品经理存在的理由一样，我认为它不再是策略。我们一直在做这些类似 RICE 方法的优先级排序，但当很多指标已经不再有意义，特别是投入时，我们为什么还要假装优先级排序是思考产品的正确方式呢？这就是为什么我认为路线图已经过时了。

They're dead. It's because I think they're really dangerous right now. I think an AI factory plus an old road map will get you to those three traps at machine speed. They will get you there fast because this factory really can't distinguish a truly consequential bet from an idea. And AI will make the consequences of this weak judgment show up at your front door faster. And so your bad ideas will become your problems quicker than ever. And so I don't think the road map is the right thing. I think the right thing is to ask yourself what do I believe strongly enough to go out and try and prove because the remaining constraint is not code.

中文：他们死了。这是因为我认为他们现在真的很危险。我认为一个人工智能工厂加上一张旧的路线图会让你以机器速度到达那三个陷阱。它们会让你很快到达那里，因为这个工厂真的无法区分一个真正重要的赌注和一个想法。而人工智能会让这种薄弱判断的后果更快地出现在你家门口。因此，你的坏主意会比以往任何时候都更快地变成你的问题。所以我认为路线图不是正确的做法。我认为正确的做法是问自己：我坚信什么到足以去尝试证明，因为剩下的限制不是代码。

It's not building. It's not features. It is truth. It is like on the ground with our customers truth. AI cannot take an untested assumption into fact. No matter how many adversarial reviews you do, and I know you're doing them, you need real customers. You need real data. You need repeated tests. And then you need a very unique point of view and a very high unique quality bar. And what AI allows us to do is make faster contact with reality, which is great. We all want to make faster contact with reality. But that means you have a higher obligation to encounter reality in your minds.

中文：这不是构建。这不是功能。这是真相。这就像在地面上与我们的客户面对面的真相。人工智能不能把未经验证的假设变成事实。不管你做了多少对抗性评审，我知道你在做，你都需要真实的客户。你需要真实的数据。你需要重复的测试。然后你需要一个非常独特的观点和一个非常高的独特质量标准。而人工智能让我们可以更快地接触现实，这是很棒的。我们都希望更快地接触现实。但这意味着你有更高的义务在脑海中面对现实。

You have to both get into the market and accept what it is telling you. And this is going to feel really retro to people like, you know, me and they're a little older because we've been saying outcomes over outputs all the time, but yet this like central artifact, the road map still lists features and dates. And again, engineering scarcity once made that workable. But like I think road map zero makes those features and dates very dangerous for the reasons that I outlined. This feature list I say becomes ammunition for a very powerful slob cannon.

中文：你必须既进入市场，又接受市场告诉你的东西。对于像我这样的人以及年纪稍大的人来说，这种感觉会非常复古，因为我们一直在强调结果而不是产出，但这个核心产物——路线图——仍然列出了功能和日期。同样，工程上的稀缺性曾经使这可行。但我认为路线图零使这些功能和日期变得非常危险，原因如我所述。我说，这个功能列表会成为一个非常强大的懒散炮的弹药。

And so what I think we need to do is move upstream from what we need to build to what we actually need to prove. And so here's how I would think about what we do instead of a road map. First we build our convictions. So what is the direction that we want to go and what do we believe the future looks like? Not in 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, in in a year, in two years. Where do we think all of this is going? I do think you need to determine what evidence would show you that your conviction is true. And you need to define that upfront.

中文：所以我认为我们需要做的是从我们需要构建的东西上游移动到我们实际上需要证明的东西上。下面是我对我们应该做什么而不是制定路线图的思考方式。首先，我们建立我们的信念。那么我们想要去的方向是什么，我们相信未来会是什么样子？不是三个月、六个月、九个月，而是一年、两年。我们认为这一切会走向哪里。我确实认为你需要确定哪些证据可以显示你的信念是正确的。你需要在一开始就定义这些。

What would I need to see to prove that I'm doing the right thing? And what would I need to see to stop? You do need a factory. So I do love the factory. I'm saying that's dangerous, but I love something dangerous. You need your factory. You need the ability to build quickly to intersect reality very very fast. So I'm not saying get rid of it. I'm saying put it at the right place in the process. And then you need to allocate. You need to go through that cycle. And when you get into reality, you need to allocate your investment, your conviction, your effort, your tokens in the right direction.

中文：我需要看到什么才能证明自己在做正确的事情？我需要看到什么才能停下来？你确实需要一个工厂。所以我确实爱这个工厂。我是在说那很危险，但我爱某些危险的东西。你需要你的工厂。你需要快速建造的能力，以非常非常快速地与现实交汇。所以我不是在说去掉它。我是说把它放在流程的正确位置。然后你需要进行分配。你需要经历那个循环。当你进入现实时，你需要将你的投资、信念、努力、代币分配到正确的方向。

And what's interesting I think most about this new world we're about to move into is I think you need to have durable convictions but disposable features. And I was talking to Mara who is going to come on the stage later and she's like but Claire enterprises love feature road maps and I'm going to talk to some folks at the end of the day who have changed a lot of features around on us a lot of products around us and we as consumers at least some of us have accepted that level of churn. And so I think we're going to get into this place where customers, where teams are able to shift to, do I bet on these convictions?

中文：我觉得关于我们即将进入的新世界，最有趣的一点是，我认为你需要有持久的信念，但功能是可以更替的。我之前和 Mara 谈过，她稍后会上台，她说，但 Claire，企业喜爱功能路线图，而我最终会跟一些人谈，他们在我们周围已经大幅更改了许多功能和产品，而我们作为消费者，至少我们中的一些人，已经接受了这种程度的变化。所以我认为我们会进入这样一个状态，客户和团队能够调整，去问自己，我是否押注这些信念？

Do I bet on this team? Do I bet on this space? Do I bet on this vision? And I understand features need to come and go. They might be unique to me. They might be unique to a market. And so what you want to see is clear progress against your convictions, but zero ego about your solutions. And what this would look like, I think there's two ways this could go. You could be you have to be stubborn here with your durable convictions. But there's good stubborn and bad stubborn. Good stubborn is you like stay with the problem.

中文：我要赌这个团队吗？我要赌这个领域吗？我要赌这个愿景吗？我明白功能需要来来去去。它们可能对我来说是独一无二的，也可能对某个市场来说是独一无二的。所以你想看到的是在你的信念上有明确的进展，但对你的解决方案没有任何自我。对此，我认为有两种情况可能发生。你在这里必须坚持你持久的信念。但坚持有好的坚持，也有坏的坚持。好的坚持是你保持专注于问题。

You revise the solution. You know, you hold true what's going to happen even if the flavor of the week is trending. Bad stubborn is because you have tokens. You just move the goalpost. You're like, "Ah, we're close. We'll just ship again and ship again and ship again." And so I want you to think about what are my durable convictions? Am I being good stubborn? Am I being bad stubborn? And then how do you actually build into your system the ability to absorb disposable features and keeping rigor around quality and learning?

中文：你修改解决方案。你知道，即使当下流行的趋势出现，你依然坚持将会发生的事情。坏的固执是因为你有代币。你只是不断地移动目标。你会说，“啊，我们快完成了。我们就一次又一次地发布。”所以我希望你思考：我的持久信念是什么？我是在做好的固执吗？还是坏的固执？然后，你如何真正将吸收一次性功能的能力融入你的系统，同时保持对质量和学习的严格要求？

And this is really scary, especially when it hits customers. But I think we're moving to a place where not everything we ship is a promise. And I I don't has anybody feeling come on. Like has anybody shipped some thank you right in the middle? Like you ship things and you're like this is a hypo this is like truly an experiment and I might get it wrong or the market might move underneath me or the technology might change, you know, tremendously. And so I do think we have to think about this idea of like not every ship is a process, a promise.

中文：这真的很可怕，尤其是当它影响到客户的时候。但我认为我们正在走向一个地方，那里的每一样我们发布的东西都不再是承诺。我不知道有没有人会有这样的感觉，大家有谁曾经在中途发过谢意吗？就像你发布一些东西时，你会觉得这是一个假设，真的只是一个实验，我可能会出错，或者市场可能在我下面发生变化，或者技术可能会发生巨大变化。所以我确实认为我们必须考虑这样一个想法：并不是每一次发布都是一个过程或承诺。

And we used to do these road maps and I would like go hand on heart to go to market and I'd be like I swear on my children this feature will ship with these specific things on this specific date. You can definitely sell it in the contract like you know and make these promises. And now I think we have to really think how we communicate internally, how we communicate with customers. And so I think there's going to be everything from a probe. This is like kind of a bet. We're going to explore a little bit. Um to a more durable kind of experiment against your conviction.

中文：我们过去会做这些路线图，我会真心实意地去推向市场，我会说我发誓这个功能会按特定日期带着这些具体的东西上线。你完全可以在合同里销售它，并做出这些承诺。现在我认为我们必须真正考虑如何在内部沟通，如何与客户沟通。所以我认为会有从一种探测式的方法开始。这有点像赌博，我们会稍微探索一下，嗯，到一种更持久的实验方式，以检验你的信念。

I think this is something we really believe in. We're going to stick with it till we get it right. And then there are promises. Promises are I have shipped something. Customers can rely on it. They can build their customers on it. We really believe and we'll keep compounding here. And I think you need to be honest about what your commitment is on any feature. I think that's almost the most um helpful lens on the new road map is like how strong is our conviction here and how durable is this promise versus like how hard is it to build and what is our estimated impact and while we do this I you know again you need to remember code is abundant customer trust is not.

中文：我认为这是我们真正相信的事情。我们会坚持下去，直到做到正确为止。然后是承诺。承诺意味着我已经交付了某件东西。客户可以依赖它。他们可以在此基础上为自己的客户提供服务。我们真的相信，并且会继续积累。我认为你需要对自己在任何功能上的承诺保持诚实。我觉得这几乎是看待新路线图最有用的视角：我们的信念有多坚定，这个承诺有多持久，相对于实现它的难度以及我们的预期影响来说如何。在我们做这些的过程中，你需要记住，代码是丰富的，但客户信任却不是。

So going back to that product graph, that feature that I built over and over and over again until I felt conviction, it was feature flagged off because I just knew that as soon as I put this in front of a customer, they were going to build on it. They were going to use it. And if I didn't have conviction that it was right, I was really going to burn that customer trust. And that's something I thought about really deeply as I was rolling out this feature. So I do still think you need a road map, but I think that roadmap needs to be more about ambition.

中文：回到那个产品图，我反复构建的那个功能，直到我产生信念，它被功能开关关闭了，因为我知道一旦我把它展示给客户，他们就会在此基础上构建。他们会使用它。如果我没有信念觉得这是正确的，我真的会损失客户的信任。这是我在推出这个功能时深思熟虑的一件事。所以我仍然认为你需要一个路线图，但我认为那个路线图更多应该关于雄心。

I think it needs to be bigger. I don't want to see onesie twoosies on your road map. I want to see the future you believe should exist. I want to see what evidence shows that we're making progress. What would prove us wrong? And then what earns more time tokens and customer attention. And I want to go back to ambition because I think the last 12 to 18 months as you know it was like you know the year of our claude and we were shipping everything and PMs were writing PRs and it was prototypes everywhere. I really think we're in a velocity game.

中文：我认为它需要更大。我不想在你的路线图上看到零零散散的小目标。我想看到你认为应该存在的未来。我想看到证据显示我们正在取得进展。什么会证明我们错了？然后什么能赢得更多的时间积分和客户关注。我还想回到雄心上，因为我认为过去的 12 到 18 个月，如你所知，就像我们克劳德之年，我们在交付一切，产品经理在写公关稿，到处都是原型。我真的认为我们是在玩速度的游戏。

20:00 - 30:00

We're in a inflect PRs straight up velocity game. If I can get prototypes to customers faster they can give me feedback faster. If I can hand things to customers or to engineering faster they can do PRs faster. my agents will take care of tech debt. My agents will take care of features. I think we're really in the last 12 to 18 months building up our muscle for true inflected velocity. I don't think that's the game next year. I don't think that's the game we should be playing for next year. I think next year is the ambition game.

中文：我们正在进行一个关于 PR（拉取请求）速度游戏的调整。如果我能更快地把原型交给客户，他们就能更快地给我反馈。如果我能更快地把东西交给客户或交给工程团队，他们就能更快地做 PR。我的代理将处理技术债务。我的代理将处理功能。我认为我们实际上是在过去的 12 到 18 个月里，为真正的加速速度积累能力。我认为这不是明年的游戏。我认为这不是我们明年应该玩的游戏。我认为明年是关于雄心的游戏。

I think you should think like what huge swings can I make? What experiments can I run in two weeks, three weeks that would have taken us a year last time? and how do I build sort of this roadmap of very very very large investments in very very ambitious builds because I think that is more important than raw feature velocity and I don't think the road map as it is serves that goal you know I was talking to somebody and again going back to OKRs unfortunately not dead yet and she was like what should our OKRs be relative to our AI transformation like PRs revenue per headcount like what it should be like how many huge experiments are you running a month like I don't care what the experiments are I don't know what they should be like how many big big swings are you taking a month with the presumption that most of them won't work

中文：我认为你应该思考的是，我可以做哪些巨大的调整？我能在两周、三周内进行哪些实验，而上次需要一年才能完成？然后我该如何建立这样一个路线图：在非常非常雄心勃勃的项目上进行非常非常大的投资，因为我认为这比单纯的功能速度更重要，而且我觉得现有的路线图并不能达到这个目标。你知道，我跟某人聊过，还是回到 OKR，不幸的是还没有被淘汰，她说我们的 OKR 应该相对于我们的 AI 转型是什么，比如 PR、每个人的收入，这应该是什么样的？你每个月进行多少大型实验，我不在乎实验具体是什么样的，我也不知道它们应该是什么样的，但你每个月进行多少重大尝试，而前提是假设大多数尝试都不会成功。

out and I think that is just a very new way to think about how you build your road map and a very new way to think about how you do your product again it's big on the ambition and very fuzzy on the specifics So here is my ask slashgift to you all. Build your last road mapap. And I do not mean build your last plan. Of course not. I just mean like no more lists of ideas and features in spreadsheets where you guess impact and where you like put a date on them and then lock arms and say we'll never we'll never change anything because this is how we work.

中文：出去，我认为这只是关于如何构建你的路线图的一种非常新的思考方式，也是关于如何重新做产品的一种非常新的思考方式。它非常注重雄心壮志，但对具体细节却非常模糊。所以这是我对你们的请求/礼物。构建你们的最后一个路线图。我并不是说构建你们的最后一个计划，当然不是。我只是指不要再用电子表格列出一堆想法和功能，猜测它们的影响，然后给它们定个日期，然后锁定手臂说我们永远不会改变任何东西，因为这就是我们的工作方式。

I just think that day is over. Instead, what I want you to do is truly raise your conviction, raise your ambition, come up with big ideas, define what success looks like in like a year or two. You're going to have to make some big guesses because I can't honestly tell what's going to happen in a week or two. I really think you want to get to a place where you have a factory that can surprise you. And so, you really want to be able to discard software and then hold your factory to a high bar. And look, you're going to write a lot of code and then you're going to trash it.

中文：我只是认为那一天已经过去了。相反，我希望你做的是真正提升你的信念，提高你的雄心，提出伟大的想法，定义一两年后成功的样子。你将不得不做出一些大胆的猜测，因为老实说，我无法告诉你一两周内会发生什么。我真的认为你想要达到一个阶段，在那里你的工厂可以让你感到惊喜。因此，你真的希望能够舍弃软件，然后对你的工厂设定高标准。看，你会写很多代码，然后又会将其丢弃。

Good. Your customers do not need trash products. Your AI is going to have better ideas than your team. Good. We need good ideas. And you need to hold that AI to a very, very high bar. And you're not going to be able to promise your team, your customers, what next year looks like. Good. Because it's probably going to be better than you can imagine right now. So, this is my ask to you. write your last road map I promise you is extremely fun on this other side. Enjoy the rest of your summit. I will see you later this afternoon and please come say hi.

中文：很好。你的客户不需要糟糕的产品。你的人工智能将会有比你的团队更好的创意。很好。我们需要好的创意。而你需要对这台人工智能设立非常非常高的标准。而你将无法向你的团队、客户承诺明年的情况会如何。很好。因为很可能它会比你现在想象的更好。所以，这是我对你的请求：写下你最后的路线图。我保证另一边会非常有趣。祝你在峰会的剩余时间愉快。今天下午我会再见到你，请过来打个招呼。