A 6-million Duo build, lukewarm Pro pre-orders, and the first M6 and M5 Ultra scores
Jeff Pu cuts Apple's 2026 iPhone Duo build to 6 million units on hinge constraints and calls iPhone 18 Pro pre-orders lukewarm, while the first M6 and M5 Ultra benchmark results land a week before those Macs go on sale.
Jeff Pu published an investor note on Tuesday morning that changed the arithmetic behind Apple's next two launches. The GF Securities analyst cut his 2026 build estimate for the iPhone Duo to 6 million units from 7 million, cut his iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max estimate to 72 million units, and read the wait times that opened with Pro pre-orders on September 12 as "lukewarm" 12. Hours later, the first Geekbench 7 results for the M6 and M5 Ultra chips surfaced, a week before the Macs that carry them reach stores 34. On Apple's own store, meanwhile, the two Home devices waiting on a refresh kept thinning out 5.
The Duo build drops to 6 million, and the hinge is the reason
Pu runs the Duo math on supply, not interest. He writes that hinge constraints are slowing production, which is why his 2026 estimate fell by a million units 2. His Pro-side cut has a different cause: constraints around the new variable-aperture main camera, which is this year's most complex addition to the iPhone 18 Pro 1.
The two figures only mean something next to each other. Pu expects Apple to ship about 72 million iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max units by the end of the year against 6 million Duos — roughly twelve to one, for a phone that starts at $1,999 and runs to $3,199 for the 2TB model, the highest starting price Apple has ever asked for an iPhone 12.
Pu's note is the second report in two weeks to put the hinge at the center of the Duo's availability. Nikkei Asia reported on September 4 that Apple was building "a few hundred" foldables a day against a normal requirement of tens of thousands, that an extra trial production run in August had pushed commercial production back by weeks, and that the two yield problems it was chasing were surface flatness and hinge performance 6. That report predates the launch, and it sits awkwardly beside what Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said at the start of the month — that he did not believe massive delays or supply chain problems were affecting the device 6.
Pre-orders for the Duo open on Friday, October 16, ahead of an October 23 launch 7.
What the pre-order wait times actually say
Apple opened iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max pre-orders on September 12, and the shipping estimates now published on its store are the most concrete demand reading anyone outside Apple has. Pu's note quotes them configuration by configuration 1:
| Configuration | Wait time at pre-order | Available on launch day |
|---|---|---|
| iPhone 18 Pro Max, 256GB and 512GB, all colors (US) | 3–4 weeks | No |
| iPhone 18 Pro Max, Burgundy 1TB (US) | 3–4 weeks | No |
| iPhone 18 Pro Max, Glacier 256GB and 512GB (China) | 2–3 weeks | No |
| iPhone 18 Pro Max, Black and Glacier 1TB (US) | 1–2 weeks | No |
| iPhone 18 Pro Max, Silver 1TB and most 2TB configurations | None quoted | Yes |
| iPhone 18 Pro, nearly every configuration | None quoted | Yes |
| iPhone 18 Pro, Burgundy 256GB | None quoted | No |
The pattern is that the cheaper Pro Max configurations sold out first and the expensive ones did not. Pu reads the softness as a consequence of limited specification upgrades and higher pricing, particularly at the top storage tiers, where the 2TB models now cost $2,399 and $2,499 1. He also expects the Pro Max to lose some buyers to the Duo when the foldable goes on sale, which would make the Pro Max the model to watch rather than the Pro 1.
Pu keeps a Hold rating on Apple with a $369 price target, which is worth knowing when reading the note: he is writing for investors deciding what to do with the stock, not for buyers deciding what to do with their money 1.
The first M6 and M5 Ultra scores are in
Two Geekbench 7 entries appeared on Tuesday, both for chips that ship in Macs on Tuesday, September 22 34.
| Chip | Single-core | Multi-core | Against the chip it replaces |
|---|---|---|---|
| M6 (Mac mini, 2nm) 8 | 4,071 | 22,783 | M5 average: 3,641 single, 17,948 multi — about 12% and 27% lower 3 |
| M5 Ultra (Mac Studio, 36-core CPU) 9 | 3,774 | 52,516 | M3 Ultra, 32-core: 2,920 single, 39,059 multi — about 30% and 35% lower 4 |
Both results line up with what Apple claimed when it announced the machines in August. Apple said the M6 is up to 1.2× faster in multi-threaded work than the M5, and the M5 Ultra up to 1.25× faster in single-threaded work and 1.3× faster in multi-threaded work than the M3 Ultra 34. Apple announced both machines on August 25 1011.
Two caveats travel with these numbers. Each is a single result, and the M6's single-core score of 4,071 would place it above every other entry in the database MacRumors checked, including the M5 Max at 3,731 and Qualcomm's Snapdragon X2 Elite Extreme at 3,396 — an outcome that one database entry cannot settle 3. The M5 comparison scores come from a 14-inch MacBook Pro, a different machine from the Mac mini the M6 result was recorded on, though MacRumors judges the two close enough in thermal headroom for the comparison to hold 3. GPU results for either chip had not appeared by Tuesday evening 34.
One other thing the M6 score shows: the M6's 22,783 multi-core result does not beat the M4 Pro's 24,894, and it lands just under the M1 Ultra's 23,328. A base-level chip closing on older high-end silicon is the pattern Apple has been shipping for several generations, and it is the number a buyer weighing a used high-end Mac against a new Mac mini can use directly 3. The 36-core M5 Ultra Mac Studio starts at $6,799 in the United States 4.
The Home devices are thinning out again
Apple's US store showed three gaps on Tuesday: the 64GB Apple TV was quoting delivery estimates into October, the HomePod mini in orange could not be ordered at all, and the HomePod mini in yellow was quoting November 5.
Both products are expected to be replaced. Gurman's September 14 report places a new HomePod mini and Apple TV in the remainder of this year, with both running on iOS 27.0 internally 12. The weakness in the signal is that it is not new: MacRumors notes these shortages have come and gone for more than a year without a launch following them 5. A single color running out is a stock event, not evidence of a date.
Car Keys adds three automakers to Apple's backend
Aaron Perris, the code researcher whose system-file finds this channel has followed before, spotted three new automaker names in the backend Apple uses for Car Keys in Wallet: Lincoln, Freelander, and Lucid 1314.
What that establishes is narrow. A backend entry means Apple is preparing the integration, and nothing in the code carries a date or a vehicle list. Lucid's name is not new either: Apple announced Lucid as an upcoming adopter in December alongside Acura, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Porsche, and Rivian, so the backend work is what has moved. Lincoln and Freelander are the fresh names 14. Car Key, which lets an iPhone or Apple Watch lock, unlock, and start a car, currently covers more than 50 models from brands including BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Hyundai, Kia, Genesis, Toyota, and Rivian 15.
Signal confidence assessment
| Area | New signal | Behind it | Confidence | Open question |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone Duo supply | 2026 build estimate cut to 6 million from 7 million, on hinge constraints | Jeff Pu, GF Securities, in an investor note 12 | Medium-high; an estimate, but it agrees with earlier supply-chain reporting on the hinge 6 | Whether the hinge ramp improves before October 16 |
| iPhone 18 Pro demand | Wait times described as "lukewarm"; Pro build estimate cut to 72 million | Jeff Pu 1 | Medium; the wait times are observable on Apple's store, the production figure is not | Whether the Duo takes buyers from the Pro Max in October, as Pu expects |
| M6 chip | First Geekbench 7 result: 4,071 single-core, 22,783 multi-core | Geekbench 7 database entry, relayed by MacRumors 38 | Medium; one unverified result, and the M5 baseline was recorded on a different machine | GPU scores, and results from retail units after September 22 |
| M5 Ultra chip | First Geekbench 7 result: 3,774 single-core, 52,516 multi-core | Same database, relayed by MacRumors 49 | Medium; same caveats, and the M3 Ultra baseline is a generation older | GPU scores, and how the 36-core part compares with lower configurations |
| Apple TV and HomePod mini supply | Delivery estimates slipping into October and November, one color unorderable | Apple's own store listings 5 | Low; the same shortages have recurred for over a year | Whether the refresh arrives in October or slips |
| Car Keys | Lincoln, Freelander, and Lucid added to Apple's backend | Aaron Perris, code researcher, relayed by 9to5Mac 1314 | Medium for the backend change itself, nothing for timing | Which models, and when |
What to watch next
- Friday, September 18: iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max reach stores and customers 1. Whether walk-in stock matches the pre-order wait times above is the first check on Pu's demand reading.
- Tuesday, September 22: the M6 Mac mini and the M5 Max and M5 Ultra Mac Studio go on sale 34. Retail benchmark results and the missing GPU scores should follow within days.
- The coming days: the first developer beta of macOS 27.1, the build Apple is using to test the touch-screen MacBooks, the M6 iMac, and the entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro 12. No beta had appeared by Tuesday night.
- Friday, October 16: iPhone Duo pre-orders open. Friday, October 23: the Duo goes on sale 7. Pu's 6-million figure is what launch availability will test.
- Late October: macOS 27.1 and iPadOS 27.1 ship, and iOS 27.1 is due no later than October 23 carrying Siri AI in five more languages 12.
- Any October announcement window: the HomePod mini, Apple TV, and smart-home hub all sit inside the same stretch of the calendar 12.
What stayed out
- The Bloomberg product pipeline Gurman published on September 14: syndicated on Tuesday by outlets including the Mercury News and summarised again by 9to5Mac. This channel covered the report, its codenames, its build mapping, and its schedule change in yesterday's issue, and Tuesday's copies add no new claim.
- Apple's own announcements and documentation: the Reference Image technical post on Apple's Security Research blog, the iPhone Duo camera feature walkthrough, the iCloud+ bundle that adds Apple TV, Apple Arcade, and Apple Music Select in more than 100 countries, and the 2019 21.5-inch iMac moving to Apple's vintage list. These came from Apple or from its retail operation, not from insiders.
- A per-unit price for the Duo's display: a $250 figure attributed to a Samsung supply arrangement, circulating with the poster's own note that it is not a confirmed bill of materials and without a second source.
- Non-product legal news: India's consumer regulator escalating its investigation into Apple's software warranty terms.
- Apple Watch, AirPods, and Vision Pro: no leak about these products cleared the credibility bar in this window.
- iOS 27 feature roundups and hands-on posts: walkthroughs of the update's 50 new features, first-night battery reports, and hands-on pieces about hardware that is already on sale.
References
- 1
- 2
- 3
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- 6
- 7iPhone Duo: Everything We Know
macrumors.com
- 8Geekbench 7 CPU result
browser.geekbench.com
- 9Geekbench 7 CPU result
browser.geekbench.com
- 10
- 11
- 12
- 13
- 14
- 15Apple Support: Car Key
support.apple.com
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