Stablecoin weekly: the $882M drain
2026. 7. 1. · 08:29

Stablecoin weekly: the $882M drain

USDT, USDC, and DAI lost $882M during the Jun 28 8:30 a.m. ET to Jul 1 8:00 a.m. ET transition window, while BTC broke below $60K, sentiment stayed in Extreme Fear, and ETF flows remained negative.

Stablecoin Liquidity
Stablecoin Liquidity@NeoDrop Official
Data cutoff: stablecoin supply at 8:00 a.m. ET on Jul 1; BTC/ETH prices around 9:06-9:08 a.m. ET on Jul 1; ETF flows through Jun 30; Fear & Greed through the Jun 30 daily print. This transition issue covers Jun 28 8:30 a.m. ET to Jul 1 8:00 a.m. ET, a shorter 64.5-hour window before the new Wednesday weekly cadence settles in.
The liquidity read weakened again. USDT, USDC, and DAI together lost $882M over the window, with USDT down $499M, USDC down $381M, and DAI almost unchanged at -$2M. 1 Adding USDS and USDe takes the five-asset drawdown to $1.215B, so the supply side is still contracting even though the most violent single-chain panic has not repeated. 1
The market tape confirmed the caution. BTC fell from the Jun 28 checkpoint near $60,004 to $58,552.81, a 2.42% move below the $60K line, while the Fear & Greed Index printed 11 on Jun 30 after staying in Extreme Fear across Jun 28-30. 2 3 U.S. spot BTC ETFs lost $453.6M over Jun 29-30, and U.S. spot ETH ETFs lost $57.5M over the same two sessions. 4 5 The working read is simple: stablecoin supply is no longer in freefall, but it has not become buying power.

Big-3 scorecard: USDT and USDC carried the drain

AssetCurrent supplyWindow change24h change7d changeRead
USDT$184.39B 1-$499M 1-$329M 1-$1.673B 1Aggregate contraction, partly offset by Ethereum USDT growth.
USDC$73.45B 1-$381M 1-$438M 1-$714M 1Aggregate contraction despite strong Solana USDC growth.
DAI$4.844B 1-$2M 1-$3M 1-$23M 1Effectively flat.
Big-3$262.68B 1-$882M 1-$770M 1-$2.410B 1Broad net burn, not a rebound.
USDT remains the largest source of liquidity pressure. Total USDT supply was $184.39B, down $499M from the Jun 28 checkpoint and down $1.673B over seven days. 1 The important nuance is that the drain was not uniform: Ethereum USDT rose $142.8M over the latest 24 hours to $78.83B, but Tron USDT fell $203.4M over 24 hours to $87.67B. 1
USDC shows the same split between aggregate weakness and chain-level demand. Total USDC supply was $73.45B, down $381M from the checkpoint, while Solana USDC rose $169.7M over 24 hours to $7.61B and gained $345.6M over seven days. 1 Hyperliquid L1 USDC stayed weaker at $5.71B, up only $6.3M over 24 hours and still down $217.7M over seven days. 1
DAI is the cleanest read in the basket because it barely moved. DAI supply was $4.844B, only $2.4M below the Jun 28 checkpoint and $22.8M below the prior week. 1 DAI's chain mix also stayed concentrated, with Ethereum at about $4.141B and Polygon at about $566M. 1

Chain rotation: Solana USDC was the outlier

Chain / assetCurrent supply24h change7d changeInterpretation
Ethereum USDT$78.83B 1+$142.8M 1-$993M 1Short-term rebound, still below the prior-week level.
Tron USDT$87.67B 1-$203.4M 1-$93.0M 1The 24h drain broke the prior flat-anchor read.
Solana USDC$7.61B 1+$169.7M 1+$345.6M 1Clear risk-chain inflow inside a weak aggregate tape.
Hyperliquid USDC$5.71B 1+$6.3M 1-$217.7M 1Still below the $6B level, with no strong reversal.
Avalanche USDC$450.3M 1-$11.9M 1-$23.1M 1Drain continued at roughly the same daily pace.
Sui USDT$0 1$0 from the prior day 1-$13.2M 1USDT balance fully drained; Sui USDC remained active at $294.4M.
The main positive signal is Solana USDC. Solana held $7.61B of USDC at the cutoff, well above the $7B level and up $345.6M over seven days. 1 That tells a different story from aggregate USDC, which was down $714M over seven days. 1 In trading terms, Solana is absorbing USDC while the issuer-level aggregate is still shrinking.
Ethereum USDT also improved on the latest daily print. Ethereum held $78.83B of USDT, up $142.8M over 24 hours after the prior shock had taken nearly $971M out of the chain-level balance. 1 That recovery is still partial because Ethereum USDT remains $993M below the prior-week level. 1
The weaker side of the map is Tron, Hyperliquid, and Avalanche. Tron still holds the largest USDT chain balance at $87.67B, but its $203.4M 24h decline matters because the previous report treated Tron as the stable anchor. 1 Hyperliquid L1 USDC was stuck at $5.71B, which keeps it below the $6B line for at least five days, and Avalanche USDC fell $11.9M over 24 hours to $450.3M. 1 These are not large enough to dominate the whole market, but they do not support a broad risk-on interpretation.

Macro confirmation: price and funds did not help

BTC was $58,552.81 around 9:08 a.m. ET on Jul 1, down 0.61% over 24 hours and 4.51% over seven days. 2 ETH was $1,570.76 around 9:06 a.m. ET, up 0.12% over 24 hours but down 4.47% over seven days. 6 ETH/BTC improved from 0.02623 at the checkpoint to 0.02683, so ETH slightly outperformed BTC in a weak tape. 2 6
Sentiment stayed near the floor. Alternative.me's Fear & Greed Index printed 12 on Jun 28, 15 on Jun 29, and 11 on Jun 30, with all three readings classified as Extreme Fear. 3 The Jun 30 print means the index did not exit the sub-25 Extreme Fear regime and did not confirm the prior small bounce. 3
ETF flows stayed negative but changed shape. U.S. spot BTC ETFs lost $231.0M on Jun 29 and $222.6M on Jun 30, for a two-day total of -$453.6M. 4 IBIT's outflow decelerated from -$300.4M on Jun 29 to -$212.4M on Jun 30, while FBTC outflows resumed at -$3.9M on Jun 29 and -$10.2M on Jun 30. 4 ETH ETFs lost $29.9M on Jun 29 and $27.6M on Jun 30, leaving the two-day total at -$57.5M. 5
That mix does not prove that stablecoin contraction caused the price weakness. It does show that the main confirmation channels were aligned in the same direction: stablecoin supply contracted, BTC broke $60K, sentiment stayed in Extreme Fear, and ETF flows remained negative.

OUSD adds structural pressure before it adds supply

The biggest issuer-side development was Open Standard's announcement of Open USD (OUSD) on Jun 30. Open Standard described OUSD as a dollar-backed stablecoin for global payments and settlement, with more than 140 launch partners and a model that charges zero mint and redemption fees while distributing most reserve income to participating businesses after a management fee. 7 The announced partner set includes Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Stripe, BlackRock, BNY, Standard Chartered, Coinbase, Google, Shopify, Bybit, OKX, MetaMask, Ripple, Galaxy, and Solana. 7
OUSD is not yet live supply. Open Standard said the coin is planned for the second half of 2026, with native issuance on Solana and Tempo from day one and support for chains including Stellar, Base, and Polygon. 7 That timing matters because the current liquidity read is still about USDT, USDC, and DAI; OUSD is a forward competitive shock, not a current mint.
Circle took the market impact immediately. Circle shares fell about 16-17.5% on Jun 30 after the OUSD announcement, and CoinDesk reported the stock closed near $66. 8 The Block reported that William Blair viewed the selloff as overdone, while Bernstein maintained a $190 target and argued the new consortium does not immediately displace USDC's position. 9 10
Regulation stayed active around the same window. The EU's MiCA crypto regime became fully in force on Jul 1, according to The Block. 11 Sidley Austin's Jun 25 update said customer-identification and OCC conforming proposals for GENIUS Act implementation remained in comment periods, with CIP comments due Aug. 21, 2026 and OCC conforming comments due Jul. 24, 2026. 12 Senator Cynthia Lummis said the CLARITY Act would reach the Senate floor in July, while TD Cowen said passage before the midterm election was "far from assured." 13 14
Geopolitical payment risk also stayed in the background. Nikkei Asia reported that Iran refused to meet U.S. envoys in Doha after weekend hostilities and that Iranian officials asserted a right to manage Strait of Hormuz traffic with Oman. 15 Crypto Briefing reported on Jul 1 that Iran and Oman planned transit fees for vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz. 16 The direct stablecoin effect remains uncertain, but compliance-sensitive payment rails do not get cleaner when maritime toll proposals enter the same week as stablecoin rulemaking.

Watchlist for the next weekly print

  1. Big-3 aggregate: The basket ended this window at $262.68B after a $882M contraction. 1 A flat or positive next print would be the first sign that the burn phase is ending.
  2. Solana USDC versus Hyperliquid USDC: Solana USDC gained $345.6M over seven days, while Hyperliquid USDC lost $217.7M over seven days. 1 The split will show whether risk-chain liquidity is rotating or merely concentrating in one venue.
  3. ETF selling breadth: BTC ETFs lost $453.6M over Jun 29-30, with IBIT still the largest outflow source. 4 If outflows spread across more funds, the signal is different from a single large product continuing to redeem.
  4. OUSD follow-through: OUSD has partner announcements and a second-half 2026 target, but it has no live supply in the current stablecoin basket. 7 The first relevant liquidity test will be whether any planned issuance coincides with USDC or USDT outflows on the same chains.
Cover image: image from Forbes.

참고 출처

  1. 1DeFiLlama stablecoins dashboard
  2. 2CoinPaprika Bitcoin market page
  3. 3Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index
  4. 4Farside Investors Bitcoin ETF flows
  5. 5Farside Investors Ethereum ETF flows
  6. 6CoinPaprika Ethereum market page
  7. 7Open Standard: Introducing Open USD
  8. 8CoinDesk: Circle craters 17% as Stripe, Coinbase and BlackRock back rival stablecoin network
  9. 9The Block: Circle shares sink 16% after Open USD reveal
  10. 10The Block: Bernstein sees 203% upside for Circle even as OUSD debuts
  11. 11The Block: Europe's MiCA crypto regime is fully in force
  12. 12Sidley Austin: Federal Agencies Propose More GENIUS AML/CFT Rules
  13. 13The Defiant: Lummis sets July as Senate floor deadline for CLARITY Act
  14. 14The Block: TD Cowen says crypto market structure bill passage is far from assured
  15. 15Nikkei Asia: Iran refuses to meet US envoys
  16. 16Crypto Briefing: Iran, Oman to impose transit fees on Strait of Hormuz vessels

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