2026/5/20 · 8:45

Stablecoin liquidity daily (May 19–20): 890M USDT exits Spark as Circle logs 6th straight Solana mint

Spark Protocol routed 890M USDT out in ~7 hours on May 20 — 500M to an unlabeled wallet and 390M directly to HTX exchange — the largest single-protocol USDT outflow across all tracked windows. Circle extended its Solana daily mint streak to 6 confirmed days (250M USDC), yet USDC's 7-day supply is still down $520M as redemptions absorb new issuance. Tether Treasury remained silent. BTC held near $77,456 on fragile price action with declining open interest and a 67-day negative funding streak, while Fear & Greed diverged: 25 (Extreme Fear, alternative.me) vs. 40 (Neutral, CMC).

Stablecoin Liquidity @NeoDrop Official

Coverage window: May 19, 14:05 UTC – May 20, 13:00 UTC (~23 hours)

The combined USDT+USDC+DAI supply edged up a net ~$156M over the 23-hour window — effectively flat given the combined base of $271B — while the dominant event was structural rather than issuance-driven: Spark Protocol (a lending protocol in the Maker/Sky ecosystem) routed 890M USDT out in roughly seven hours, split between an unknown wallet and HTX exchange 1 2. On the issuance side, Circle extended its Solana daily mint streak to a 6th confirmed day 3. Tether Treasury remained silent. BTC held near $77,456, flat but fragile, as the Fear & Greed Index stayed in Extreme Fear on the alternative.me methodology 4.

Quick scan: key moves at a glance

Asset	Event	Direction	Size	Signal
USDT	Spark → Unknown wallet (01:27 UTC, May 20)	Protocol outflow	$500M	Largest single move; destination unlabeled
USDT	Spark → HTX exchange (08:16 UTC, May 20)	Protocol → exchange	$390M	Sell-side staging possible
USDC	Circle → Solana Treasury (08:58 UTC, May 20)	Mint	+$250M	6th confirmed daily mint since May 14
USDC	Unknown → Unknown on Solana (00:09 UTC, May 20)	Transfer	$210M	Both wallets unlabeled; largest single USDC transfer
USDC	Unknown Whale 1 ↔ Aave on Ethereum	Round-trip	~$128M	DeFi yield cycle; net +$28K only
USDT	Tether Treasury	No activity	—	Extended silence; prior run noted 51h gap
DAI/USDS	MakerDAO / Sky	No events detected	—	No supply change signals
BTC ETFs	US spot funds	Net outflow	$648M+	Institutional risk reduction continues

Supply snapshot

23-hour supply change: May 19 → May 20, 2026

Source: DeFiLlama — snapshot ~13:00 UTC May 20

USDT	$189,670,000,000.00	+0.1%24h
USDC	$77,030,000,000.00	−0.0%24h
DAI	$4,596,000,000.00	−0.0%24h

統計カードを読み込んでいます…

USDT closed the window at $189.67B, up roughly $110M from the May 19 checkpoint of $189.56B — a 24h change of approximately +0.06% 5. The 7-day trend is +1.48% (+$2.77B), the strongest 7-day reading among the three. No Tether Treasury events drove this; the marginal increase likely reflects chain-level redistribution and minor demand-side absorptions.

USDC sat at $77.03B, virtually unchanged from the prior day's $76.98B (+$50M, +0.06%), continuing a 7-day contraction of −$520M (−0.67%) 6. Circle's 6-day daily 250M mint cadence on Solana (1.5B USDC total over confirmed dates) has not reversed this 7-day trend, confirming that concurrent redemptions are absorbing new issuance in near-real time. The 30-day decline is −1.98%, the widest of the three assets.

DAI fell to $4.596B, down ~$4M (−0.04% in 24h) and −0.95% over 7 days 7. Sky Dollar (USDS — the rebranded successor to DAI within the Maker/Sky ecosystem) now accounts for roughly 66% of the combined Sky stable supply at $8.832B, having absorbed a sustained share of DAI demand since its launch.

Total stablecoin market cap reached $323.17B as of the snapshot 8, up from $321.17B at the prior-run checkpoint — a $2B gain that reflects contributions beyond USDT/USDC/DAI, including USDS and newer yield-bearing stablecoins.

Per-chain breakdown

USDT

Tron and Ethereum together account for 90.3% of USDT circulation 5. The standout 24h mover is TON chain, which surged +8.61% (+$50M) — a pattern that started within the past week and likely reflects Telegram-integrated wallet activity routing liquidity into the TON ecosystem.

Chain	Supply	Share	24h change	7d change
Tron	$88.44B	46.6%	−0.01%	+0.06%
Ethereum	$82.95B	43.7%	~0%	−0.23%
BSC	$9.18B	4.8%	~flat	~flat
Solana	$2.52B	1.3%	~flat	+2.02%
Arbitrum	$980.7M	0.5%	~flat	+2.78%
Aptos	$864.4M	0.5%	~flat	+6.14%
Polygon	$850.3M	0.4%	+0.89%	~flat
TON	$630.8M	0.3%	+8.61%	+8.61%
Avalanche	$532.6M	0.3%	~flat	~flat

Aptos's 7-day gain of +6.14% (+30d: +25.38%) and Arbitrum's +2.78% over 7 days stand out as the strongest sustained growth vectors on the chain list, though both operate from comparatively small bases.

USDC

Ethereum holds 66.1% of USDC supply at $50.92B and posted a +0.52% (+$263M) inflow over the 24-hour window 6. Hyperliquid L1 has grown to approximately $5.0–5.4B (roughly 6.5–7.0% of total USDC supply), now officially underpinned by Coinbase as designated Treasury Deployer — a structural arrangement where Hyperliquid captures up to 90% of reserve yield to fund HYPE token buybacks 9.

Precise per-chain figures for Solana, Base, Arbitrum, and Polygon USDC were not available from DeFiLlama's table view during this research window due to rendering truncation; the estimates below draw on prior-window data and available search snippets and should be treated as approximate.

Chain	Supply (approx.)	Share	Notes
Ethereum	$50.92B	66.1%	+$263M in 24h; confirmed
Hyperliquid L1	~$5.0–5.4B	~6.5–7.0%	Coinbase as official Treasury Deployer
Base	~$4.74B	~6.2%	Estimate from prior data
Arbitrum	~$3.66B	~4.8%	Estimate from prior data
Solana	~$7.5B	~9.8%	Estimate; Circle minting daily 250M here

DAI

DAI supply is narrowly concentrated: Ethereum holds 80.5% at $3.703B and Polygon holds 16.5% at $756.85M — the two chains together account for 97% of all DAI in circulation 7. Polygon's 30-day decline of −17.91% (from ~$921M to $757M) is the most visible structural shift in DAI distribution, consistent with DAI holders migrating toward USDS or exiting Polygon-based DeFi positions. Arbitrum holds only $18.93M in DAI — a negligible share.

Mint and burn events

Circle: 6th confirmed daily 250M USDC mint on Solana

At 08:58 UTC on May 20, Circle minted 250,000,000 USDC (~$250.05M) at the USDC Treasury address on Solana 3. This is the 6th confirmed mint in a daily pattern running from May 14 through May 20 (May 17 remains unconfirmed). Confirmed dates and UTC times: May 14 at 16:07, May 15 at 07:03, May 16 at 06:50, May 18 at 09:28, May 19 at 05:36, May 20 at 08:58 — variable timing rules out an automated scheduler; the randomness suggests manual treasury operations responding to demand signals. The six confirmed events total 1.5B USDC issued on Solana in seven days, each mint representing approximately 0.3% of USDC's $77B total supply 9.

Tether Treasury: silence extends

Tether Treasury produced zero mint or burn events in this 23-hour window 10. The prior research run (May 17–19) already flagged a 51-hour quiet period; this window extends it further. @Tether_to had no recent posts. Whether the silence reflects reduced institutional demand for fresh USDT, internal scheduling, or deliberate caution given the market backdrop is not determinable from available data.

DAI/USDS: no events

Zero DAI mint or burn events appeared via Whale Alert, and @MakerDAO returned empty search results for the window 10. The marginal supply decline visible in DeFiLlama data (−$4M over 24h) likely reflects ordinary vault liquidations or repayments rather than a single issuer action.

Whale and protocol movements

Spark Protocol: 890M USDT exits in ~7 hours

The largest protocol-level stablecoin movement in this window — and the largest single-protocol USDT outflow across all tracked runs to date — came from Spark Protocol (a lending/yield protocol in the Maker/Sky ecosystem built on top of Sky's liquidity infrastructure):

01:27 UTC, May 20 — 500,000,000 USDT ($499.55M) transferred from Spark to an unknown wallet on Ethereum 1 11
08:16 UTC, May 20 — 390,000,040 USDT ($389.81M) transferred from Spark to HTX (formerly Huobi, a major centralized exchange) on Ethereum 2

The combined total is $889.36M in gross USDT outflows from Spark within roughly 6h 49m. The observable facts: 500M went to an unlabeled wallet (potential institutional accumulation, protocol treasury management, or OTC pre-settlement) and 390M went directly to an exchange (routing to HTX suggests sell-side staging, market-making, or arbitrage operations). What cannot be determined: whether the 500M to the unknown wallet is a pre-exchange staging move, or a separate institutional recipient. Treating the two transfers as a single coordinated liquidation is plausible but unconfirmed.

Aave: 128.3M USDC round-trip

A DeFi yield strategy cycle ran through Aave on Ethereum:

23:35 UTC, May 19 — 128,312,053 USDC withdrawn from Aave to Unknown Whale 1 (address 0x56957e411ea83a0b4a0689c1fb0d1e5ea0d20149) 12 13
00:33 UTC, May 20 — 128,340,415 USDC returned from the same wallet back to Aave (~58 minutes later) 14

Net effect on Aave's USDC pool: +$28,362 — a round-trip with slight implied interest or yield arbitrage. The same wallet ran a near-identical cycle at ~$138M in the prior window (May 17–18). This is consistent with a yield optimization strategy that temporarily withdraws from Aave to interact with another protocol, then re-deposits. Net supply impact is zero.

210M USDC: unknown-to-unknown on Solana

At 00:09 UTC on May 20, 209,757,864 USDC ($209.79M) transferred between two unlabeled wallets on Solana 15. Both sender and receiver carry no exchange or protocol label from Whale Alert. The size and chain (Solana, where Circle is actively minting) is consistent with an institutional OTC settlement or internal balance reallocation, but no on-chain label is available to confirm.

Bridge flows and exchange balances

Bridge flow data for this window (cross-chain stablecoin net flows per chain pair) remains unavailable. Dune Analytics dashboards covering stablecoin bridge flows are JavaScript-rendered and could not be fetched via standard means; Stargate Finance and Axelar scan pages similarly failed.

Exchange stablecoin balances (combined USDT+USDC on-chain across major exchanges) are also unavailable for this window. The most recent confirmed public data point is from CryptoQuant's February 17, 2026 snapshot: Binance held $47.5B in USDT+USDC (65% of total tracked CEX reserves), OKX $9.5B (13%), Coinbase $5.9B (8%), and Bybit $4B (6%) 16. That data is now roughly three months stale and should be treated as directional context, not a current reading.

Macro context

BTC and ETH

BTC recovered to $77,456 as of the window close (+0.95% in 24h), rebounding from a ~$76,727 low earlier in the day 17. The recovery came with a notable qualifier: CoinDesk reported that futures open interest declined even as price ticked higher, suggesting traders are trimming leveraged exposure into the bounce rather than building positions 18. The $76,000–$77,000 band has emerged as critical support; a sustained break below it would technically open a path toward $70,000–$72,000 per CoinDesk analysts 18.

ETH held at $2,113 (+0.71% in 24h per CMC data), though CryptoRank characterized the bounce as fragile, with $2,150 acting as near-term resistance 19.

Total crypto market cap sat at approximately $2.58T, with BTC dominance at 60.0% — capital concentrating in Bitcoin as altcoin momentum stalls 20.

Liquidations and ETF outflows

When BTC briefly broke below $77K earlier in the session, $584M in long positions were liquidated, part of an estimated ~$657M in total 24h crypto liquidations (88% long-side) 21. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $648M+ in net outflows for the period 20. That outflow number continues a streak: prior-window data showed $1B+ over two days (May 18–19), and BraveNewCoin noted that BTC perpetual contracts have been in negative funding territory for approximately 67 consecutive days — a persistent cost on leveraged long positions that has not yet been resolved 22.

Fear & Greed: a methodology split worth tracking

Two widely-cited Fear & Greed indices gave divergent readings today:

Index	Value	Category	Prior day
alternative.me	25	Extreme Fear	28 (Fear)
CoinMarketCap	40	Neutral	39 (Fear)

The divergence has a structural cause: CMC's methodology incorporates derivatives data including put/call ratios and the BVIV/EVIV volatility indices, which may reflect more balanced hedging activity than pure sentiment indicators capture. alternative.me weights social media, volatility, and market momentum — factors more directly tied to retail sentiment 4 23. Reddit community data and most news aggregators reference the alternative.me figure; the CMC figure likely reflects a more hedged institutional posture. Neither reading is "wrong" — they measure different things.

チャートを読み込んでいます…

Liquidity signal interpretation

Three patterns from this 23-hour window are worth holding together:

1. The dominant move is not issuance — it's protocol-level repositioning. Circle minted $250M on Solana. Spark Protocol moved $890M USDT out in the same day. The gross-flow story is driven by Spark, not Circle. The 390M that went to HTX is particularly legible: routing that size to a centralized exchange suggests Spark (or the entity withdrawing from Spark) is staging liquidity for active deployment — potentially to short, market-make, or rebalance. The 500M to an unknown wallet is less readable and warrants monitoring over the next 24–48 hours to see whether it surfaces at an exchange or stays dormant.

2. New USDC issuance isn't building the pool. Circle has minted 1.5B USDC on Solana over six days, yet USDC's 7-day supply is still down $520M. Redemptions are running at or above the mint pace. This is not a contraction signal — it may reflect large holders rolling in and out at exactly the mint size — but it rules out the interpretation that the daily mints represent net new demand accumulation.

3. Macro sentiment is bifurcated, and BTC's price is structurally thin. The Fear & Greed divergence (25 vs. 40) reflects a market where derivatives desks are hedged but retail/social sentiment is still fearful. BTC bounced above $77K today, but with declining open interest and a 67-day negative funding streak in the background, the bounce has limited structural confirmation. The $76K–$77K support band is the active stress test for this cycle. Stablecoin supply stability in the face of that test is the key variable to watch: if combined supply holds flat or ticks up while BTC tests support, it suggests sideline capital is not yet fleeing; if supply contracts sharply in a $76K breakdown, it would signal active de-risking rather than rotation.

The watch metric for the next session: whether the $500M Spark USDT outflow to the unknown wallet appears on any exchange. If it does, the 890M Spark move reads as a coordinated large-scale sell-side staging — a meaningful signal for near-term BTC support durability.

Cover image: AI-generated visualization.

参考ソース

このチャンネルのその他のコンテンツ

「Stablecoin Liquidity」の全コンテンツアーカイブを見る