Oil Retreats 1.5% as Hormuz Tankers Move; Gold Reclaims $4,500 on Soft GDP
WTI and Brent crude reversed Thursday's Iran-strike spike (−1.5%) as tankers began clearing the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since March. Gold reclaimed $4,500 (+0.60%) after soft Q1 GDP (+1.6%) and core PCE (+3.3%) data pressured the dollar. Copper held near flat; iron ore was unchanged at $109; corn slipped 0.52% on a technical sell-off.
Friday, May 29, 2026 — 07:00 ET
Oil gave back most of Thursday's geopolitical spike as tankers began clearing the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. growth data underwhelmed, lifting gold above $4,500 for the first time since Monday.
At a Glance
| Commodity | Price | Change | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (spot) | $4,521.90 / oz | +$27.00 (+0.60%) | ▲ |
| WTI Crude | $87.54 / bbl | −$1.36 (−1.53%) | ▼ |
| Brent Crude | $92.60 / bbl | −$1.11 (−1.18%) | ▼ |
| Copper (front-month) | $6.42 / lb | ~flat (0.00%) | → |
| Iron Ore 62% Fe CFR | $109.04 / t | 0.00% | → |
| Corn (Jul contract) | $453.90 / bu | −2.35 (−0.52%) | ▼ |
Gold — Bouncing Off the 200-Day Moving Average
Gold spot is trading at $4,521.90/oz (+$27.00, +0.60%), recovering from a week-long decline that took it from above $4,600 to a test of the 200-day moving average near $4,488. 1
Two data prints released Thursday drove the rebound overnight:
- Q1 U.S. GDP (2nd estimate): +1.6% — below the prior estimate, signalling slowing growth
- Core PCE: +3.3% — hotter than the Fed's 2% target, a classic stagflation read
The combination weakened the dollar and made the rate-cut narrative marginally more credible, which lifted non-yielding gold. Durable goods orders rising 7.9% and weekly jobless claims at 215k added to a mixed macro mosaic that analysts described as "growth concerns offsetting inflation pressure." 4
Watch: The 200-day moving average (~$4,488) is now support. A close above $4,550 would signal that the week's corrective phase is over.
Key listed equities: Newmont Corp (NEM), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Agnico Eagle (AEM), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM). Royalty and streaming names outperform when gold recovers from an oversold position; NEM in particular has tracked the 200-day closely in recent sessions.
Crude Oil — Reversing the Iran-Strike Spike
WTI dropped to $87.54/bbl (−1.53%) and Brent to $92.60/bbl (−1.18%), paring most of Thursday's surge that was triggered by fresh U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military targets. 3
Three catalysts are driving Friday's pullback:
- Hormuz traffic resuming: Two supertankers and an LNG carrier cleared the Strait this week, the first significant through-traffic since the de-facto closure in early March. One cargo: ~2 million barrels of Saudi crude bound for China; another: ~1.8 million barrels of UAE crude heading to India's Hindustan Petroleum. All vessels transited in "dark mode" with transponders off. 5
- Bernstein $75/bbl long-term target: Wall Street firm Bernstein Research set $75/bbl as its long-term equity-valuation benchmark, citing rising marginal costs (~$77/bbl globally) but also noting that the average producer breakeven sits at $50/bbl — well below current spot — giving exploration companies room to absorb a significant price retreat. 6
- EIA inventory draw: API data confirmed a −2.8 million barrel crude draw for the week ending May 22, the sixth consecutive weekly draw — structurally supportive, but already priced in after Thursday's spike.
The U.S.–Iran situation remains unresolved. Trump signalled "no rush, no sanctions relief" on a formal deal, meaning the risk premium is not going away — it is simply being recalibrated lower from an extreme level.
Key listed equities: ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Baker Hughes (BKR). Refiners like Valero (VLO) and Phillips 66 (PSX) remain sensitive to Hormuz-driven margin spikes. Chevron also filed to acquire a 70% stake in a Greek offshore block, underscoring continued upstream appetite at current prices. 7
Copper — Flat but Structurally Firm
Copper is nearly unchanged at $6.42/lb (~0.00%), pausing after a strong week. The 52-week range runs from $4.33 to a high of $6.72, and the current price sits 37% above one year ago. 8
The near-term setup is a tug-of-war:
- Bullish side: Barclays upgraded Swedish copper miner Boliden AB to "overweight," citing copper's long-run growth outlook. Reserve lifetimes in the mining sector have dropped to a 20-year low of 10.4 years, well below the historical average of 13 years — a structural supply constraint that underpins the price floor.
- Bearish side: Peru presidential election risk is real. Candidates proposing aggressive mining policy changes have spooked investors in Peruvian assets including copper royalty streams. BofA's prior downgrades of Rio Tinto (RIO) and BHP (BHP) to Neutral on China credit concerns are still a headwind.
Key listed equities: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Southern Copper (SCCO), Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP Group (BHP), Boliden AB (BOL.ST).
Iron Ore — Treading Water at $109
Iron ore 62% Fe CFR held dead flat at $109.04/t with zero movement in today's session. 9 The market is caught between:
- China steel output resilience still supporting prices above $100
- Macro headwinds from BofA's bearish call on China credit and BHP/RIO downgrades
No new catalyst on either side today; price action in iron ore will likely follow the next Chinese credit-impulse or PMI data point rather than anything on the U.S. calendar.
Key listed equities: Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP Group (BHP), Fortescue (FMG.AX), Vale (VALE).
Corn — Weak Close Heading Into Weekend
Corn July futures fell to $453.90/bu (−0.52%) as the week wraps. 2 Technical indicators currently signal "Strong Sell" across multiple moving-average timeframes.
Two opposing forces remain in play:
- Bearish: China's $17 billion U.S. agriculture purchasing commitment is still working its way into actual contracts, meaning anticipated export demand hasn't yet shown up as hard bookings. Price action on details has been "sell the rumour, wait for confirmation."
- Bullish: Iran-war-related cost pressures are raising U.S. input costs (fuel, fertilizer), and the FAO has warned that a prolonged Hormuz closure could trigger a food-price crisis within 12 months by disrupting fertilizer and grain-shipping supply chains. Drought stress on parts of the U.S. Corn Belt adds a supply-side floor.
The 52-week range runs from $391.25 to $487.50; at $453.90 corn is trading in the upper-middle of that range, reflecting hedged concerns rather than a crisis premium.
Key listed equities: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Bunge Global (BG), CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS).
Macro Watch for the Session
| Event / Catalyst | Relevance |
|---|---|
| U.S.–Iran talks (Hormuz status) | Primary driver for oil and gold; tanker traffic hints at partial de-escalation |
| Q1 GDP 2nd est. (+1.6%) / Core PCE (+3.3%) | Already released Thu; soft growth = bullish gold, bearish dollar |
| EIA crude inventory (delayed from Monday) | Confirmed −2.8M bbl draw; supportive for oil but priced in |
| Fed rate trajectory (10-yr yield ~4.5%) | Headwind for gold; softer GDP inches the dial toward cuts |
| China credit impulse / PMI data | Key for copper and iron ore; no new data today |
| Peru presidential election | Copper supply-chain political risk |
| USDA crop progress (weekly) | Corn: drought stress + planting pace |
This briefing covers price moves and drivers as of 07:00 ET on May 29, 2026. Prices are live-market snapshots and may have moved by the time you read this.
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