McDavid at 135, Vasilevskiy at 39: the NHL draft board before camp
NHL.com's new 84-game projections set draft prices, while Winnipeg, Dallas and the Islanders supply the camp decisions that can change them.
Sept. 1–7 falls 12 days before the NHL preseason begins on Sept. 19. The regular season opens Sept. 29, so this window has yet to produce scores, weekly skater or goalie leaders, or wild-card movement. The actionable update is NHL.com's new 84-game fantasy draft board, plus a short list of camp situations that can change player value. 1
NHL.com's September projections are estimates for an 84-game season. The fantasy staff factors prior production, projected line combinations, power-play usage, injuries, age and role into its point and win totals. Use the numbers as draft prices; use camp deployment to decide whether a player earns that price. 23
The September draft board
NHL.com's overall top 250 is a standard-category ranking, which includes goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits and blocks for skaters, plus wins, goals-against average, save percentage and shutouts for goalies. Its point list is a separate scoring forecast, so a player's overall rank can differ from a pure points order. 24
| Player | Overall rank | 84-game estimate | Draft read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid, Oilers | 1 | 135 points | The top point projection and top overall rank align. He is the clear first overall selection in points formats and standard leagues. 24 |
| Macklin Celebrini, Sharks | 4 | 122 points | The forecast puts Celebrini ahead of Leon Draisaitl's 117 points. A fourth-overall standard-league rank prices him as an elite pick rather than a later breakout gamble. 24 |
| Cale Makar, Avalanche | 8 | 87 points | Makar leads defensemen in the point forecast and sits eighth overall. That combination supports an early defense selection in formats that reward power-play production. 24 |
| Lane Hutson, Canadiens | 25 | 80 points | Hutson's point projection trails Makar, Evan Bouchard, Quinn Hughes and Zach Werenski, yet the overall board still places him in the first 25. The difference reflects category value beyond points. 24 |
| Kyle Connor, Jets | 29 | 93 points | Connor has produced at least 90 points in three of the past five seasons, and NHL.com projects 93 points. His shot volume and goal history keep him inside the top 30 even while Winnipeg's goalie story dominates camp headlines. 45 |
| Tyler Seguin, Stars | 157 | 55 points | Seguin has returned to on-ice work after a right ACL tear. His 55-point projection belongs in late-round planning until Dallas confirms his camp workload and early-season availability. 26 |
Goalies: projected wins and usable workload
Andrei Vasilevskiy leads NHL.com's list at 39 projected wins, followed by Jake Oettinger at 38 and Logan Thompson at 35. A win forecast is useful for a wins-only league; standard leagues also need the rate categories that sit behind the overall goalie ranking. 34
| Goalie | Win estimate | Current roster context | Draft action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning | 39 | Vasilevskiy is 13th overall in the standard rankings, the highest goalie on the list. | Treat him as the premium goalie anchor. 34 |
| Connor Hellebuyck, Jets | 31 | Hellebuyck is ranked 27th overall and has made his trade request public. His recent 23-win, .895-save-percentage season followed his 2024-25 Hart and Vezina campaign. | Keep the price tied to the next concrete development: a trade, or Winnipeg's camp plan. 5 |
| Ilya Sorokin, Islanders | 31 | Sorokin played 18 of the Islanders' final 19 games from March 5 onward last season. Varlamov's return and Vitek Vanecek's arrival give New York more potential support. | Camp preseason appearances will clarify whether Sorokin's workload becomes more sustainable. 37 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Sabres | 28 | Luukkonen went 22-9-3 with a 2.52 goals-against average and .910 save percentage in 35 regular-season games during Buffalo's 39-9-5 finish after Dec. 16. Buffalo also used Alex Lyon and Colten Ellis. | The 28-win forecast assumes a useful role, while the three-goalie picture remains a workload risk. 38 |
Four camp decisions that can move a draft board
Winnipeg's goalie resolution. Hellebuyck's ranking carries both a 31-win projection and a top-five-goalie ceiling in NHL.com's Winnipeg preview. The same preview records a career-low .895 save percentage and 23 wins last season. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele remain steadier Jets selections: NHL.com projects 93 and 92 points, respectively, and their line factored on the same goal 65 times last season. 5
Seguin's return date. Seguin tore his right ACL on Dec. 2, 2025, had surgery Dec. 16 and has returned to captain's-skate ice sessions. Dallas general manager Jim Nill said Seguin felt good at the nine-month point. Seguin recorded 17 points in 27 games before the injury; a full camp participation signal would make his current 55-point estimate easier to use. 26
Varlamov's backup case. Varlamov has been cleared for Islanders camp after two knee procedures and extensive rehabilitation. He has been on the ice four or five times per week, and general manager Mathieu Darche expects him to play preseason games. New York also signed Vitek Vanecek for one year, making the preseason rotation relevant to Sorokin managers. 7
Two deals, two different draft effects. Vancouver signed 20-year-old defenseman Zeev Buium to an eight-year, $75.04 million extension that begins in 2027-28. The agreement locks in a long-term commitment, while Buium's 12 points in 45 games last season leave his immediate fantasy role for camp to settle. New York signed Eeli Tolvanen for one year at $1.5 million after he posted 36 points in 78 games for Seattle. Tolvanen joins a Rangers forward group that added Pavel Dorofeyev, Oliver Bjorkstrand and Joe Veleno, so his line and power-play work will determine whether he rises above late-round depth. 910
Watchlist before Sept. 19
- Hellebuyck: track a trade result or Winnipeg's declared camp rotation. The 31-win forecast has more uncertainty than Vasilevskiy's 39-win projection. 35
- Seguin: watch for full training-camp participation before moving him from a late-round projection to a target. 6
- Islanders goalies: watch Varlamov's preseason games and New York's usage of Vanecek. Their availability shapes the number of starts Sorokin can reasonably absorb. 7
- Unsigned veterans: Vladimir Tarasenko, Patrik Laine, Michael Bunting, John Klingberg and Cam Talbot remained available on Sept. 2. Each signing can create a late fantasy option or change an incumbent's role. 11
The first preseason games arrive Saturday, Sept. 19. Those games will replace projection-only decisions with lines, power-play units and goalie rotations. 1
Fuentes de referencia
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